Tuesday 11th December 2018

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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

January 21st 2018? Or has that been left unspoken?


Edited to add -

That's a serious question, by the way.
Last edited by PorFavor on Tue 11 Dec, 2018 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

PorFavor wrote:January 21st 2018? Or has that been left unspoken?
Sorry, what? ;)

(though I bet our PM wishes she could turn back the clock almost a year)
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
PorFavor wrote:January 21st 2018? Or has that been left unspoken?
Sorry, what? ;)

(though I bet our PM wishes she could turn back the clock almost a year)
Ha! I meant 2019. Has the year been mentioned? Don't trust them an inch.

Edited to add -

March 2019 is before January 2020, if you see what I'm getting at.
gilsey
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by gilsey »

Twitter thread for Constance.
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

gilsey wrote:Twitter thread for Constance.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thank you from both of us!
gilsey
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by gilsey »

Kevin Maguire

Verified account

@Kevin_Maguire
30m30 minutes ago
More
Spare a thought for Spurs superfan and Guardian wordsmith @JohnJCrace who gave up his Barcelona tickets to cover tonight’s Brexit vote she’s bottled. I predict his dismantling of the Maybot will be glorious
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Someone, I can't remember who, was warning about the risks of branding May's withdrawal agreement a "bad deal". It's not a bad deal, it's just a deal. A pretty reasonable deal, given the red lines May hemmed herself in with. By all means those who don't like the deal should criticise it, but they should do so in terms of the red lines that led to the deal and show how different red lines would lead to a better agreement. If they can't do that then they have no grounds to criticise the deal. If we want to leave the EU we will need a deal and any deal will look much like this one. May is rarely a voice of reason but when she said any deal would have a backstop she was merely stating the reality of the article 50 process. If parliament rejects this deal, they are likely to reject any deal. So what do MPs want to do? Do they want another referendum to try to remain? Fine, then reject the deal because accepting it won't get you what you want. Do they want a softer single market Brexit? Fine, then tell the PM, like the SNP have done that SM is their price to support the WA. But everyone else, all those saying they are committed to Brexit and don't want to stay in the SM need to take a long, hard look at themselves and ask themselves why are they attacking a deal which will do just that. Is it really because the withdrawal agreement is a "bad deal" or is it because their favoured form of Brexit is itself a bad deal?
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tinybgoat
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by tinybgoat »

Couple of articles on Slugger O'Toole in support of necessity of backstop.
https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/12/10/fo ... -backstop/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Four Pro-Remain parties issue joint statement on the backstop"

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/12/10/ke ... han-later/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Keep your eye on the glimmer of light in the Big Picture. But first we need to re-examine the backstop, sooner rather than later."
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Talk now (Sky TV news) of them knocking off early for Christmas! Might be acceptable if they were intending to come back early, but I haven't heard any mention of that possibility.
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Four local council byelections last week:

Surrey CC - Independent gain from Tory in a division that had been safely blue until the appearance of Indies on the scene in recent years - they ran the Tories close in this seat last year, having already established themselves at district level in all out elections for Woking DC in 2016. Tories were likely ahead in this division come this May's district elections, but any hope of a repeat now was dashed as the Indy took close to half the vote (as opposed to one third in 2017) a swing of some 12% away from the Tories. LibDems down on the last two elections here with 13%, whilst UKIP's 4% meant they edged up from a year ago, but were still massively down on 2013 when they finished second.

Leicester - Labour hold in a ward which returned three councillors and 70% of the vote for them in 2015, and the main predecessor ward was equally safe for some time further back (only an Independent coming close in 2007 disturbing things a little) So an easy hold was expected, but the scale of it - a Labour share of approaching 87% and a 17 point increase - was something of a surprise. Tories remained in second, but lost two thirds of their previous share - LibDems on 4% after not standing last time and Greens on 3% (roughly halved on three years ago) were the even more also rans.

Oxford DC - LibDem hold with just over 60% of the vote, almost unchanged on May this year. In fact there was remarkably little difference in any of the vote shares since then - the main change being the second placed Tories edging up by a point. Though a perusal of earlier results here paints a slightly different picture - whilst this ward has consistently voted LibDem since returning two councillors for them in the 2004 all-out elections, the Tories have often been competitive - coming within 100 votes then and also 2008 and 2012, in each case the closest they came to winning a seat in what is a long term Tory free zone. Labour third on 10% - their share here has been remarkably constant in recent elections - whilst the Greens edged down to 5%, some way short of their 2012 high when they took a quarter of the poll.

Highland - SNP gain from LibDem in a division that has a claim to fame as the largest council ward by area in the entire UK - bigger than at least one US state and quite a few sovereign countries. Unsurprisingly for such an area, Independents have traditionally done well and that survived into the era of STV voting - things split 2Ind/1LD/1Nat in both 2007 and 2012, though the SNP topped the poll in the first election and the LibDem the second before the latter went Independent increasing their dominance here. Only for a while, though - 2017 saw the widespread Tory surge north of the border net them a seat and top the poll (though they had only a single candidate and the Nats outpolled them overall) as things split 1C/1Nat/1Ind/1LD, the ex-LibDem being the sole successful Indy. This time round both the SNP and Tories increased by around 7% to 33% and 26% respectively meaning hardly any swing overall and the Nats ultimately getting through on transfers fairly comfortably. The unsuccessful Independent incumbent last year came third, increasing their poll since then but still notably down on when they got elected in 2012, followed by the Greens who dropped themselves but still overtook the LibDems who dropped five points to 8% and have seen most of their former strength here evaporate. Labour got 4% (slightly down) closely followed by another ex-LibDem Independent (for the neighbouring division) on 3% and then two genuine also-rans - UKIP with all of sixteen first preference votes and a Libertarian with eight. Half a per cent between them ;)

Five contests this week, including one tomorrow.
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Jacob Rees Mogg comes out for Boris Johnson.
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Exclusive: May and her Cabinet *did* discuss the Brexit addendum she is seeking from the EU weeks before the meaningful vote debate, gov source tells me

The PM told civil servants to draft a statement last month to persuade Cabinet Brexiteers not to quit
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Organised chaos.
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Lost Soul
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by Lost Soul »

PorFavor wrote:Jacob Rees Mogg comes out for Boris Johnson.

:shock:

Well, obvs ...I wish them every happiness..but gosh, wasn't expecting that !
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by Lost Soul »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ve-backers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

'The analysis, carried out over the weekend, is based on the views of voters who participated in the thinktank’s “Brexit Diaries” study from 2017, which had mapped the opinions of 52 leave voters and 48 remain voters, as well as a poll of more than 2,000 voters.'

'Researchers found the number of “diehards” had shrunk significantly, from a third of the public to just over a quarter. The number of “devastated pessimists” has risen by 5% – overtaking the “diehards” as the largest number of voters.'
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Lucy Powell MP
@LucyMPowell
·
17s
Highly unlikely Parliament will rise early. Requires a vote and they can ill-afford to lose another one.
Touche!
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

So the emergency debate ended up in a 299-0 vote against the motion.

Presumably the wording voted on was not quite the same as that published (and syntactically was the opposite), leading a couple of Tweeters to embarrassingly reach the conclusion that not even Corbyn had voted for his own motion :lol:
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by Willow904 »

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... es-to.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Are the Labour leadership attitudes to Brexit just the austerity story all over again?
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Fracking paused in Blackpool after biggest tremor to date

Minor quake near Cuadrilla site is on par with one in 2011 that led to moratorium (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -cuadrilla
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Dover checks ‘would take eight hours per lorry’ in no-deal Brexit

Haulage bosses say plans for customs ‘dire’ and government in denial over scale of issue

Government plans for customs checks at Dover in a no-deal scenario are so impractical it would take eight hours to clear an average lorry carrying food and goods from Calais, the Road Haulage Association has warned.

It said plans for no-deal Brexit were “dire” and the sector faced a catastrophe on 30 March. (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eal-brexit
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Sky TV news - claims that the 48 letters threshold has been reached, and rumours that Graham Brady will be seeing Theresa May tomorrow.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

PorFavor wrote:Sky TV news - claims that the 48 letters threshold has been reached, and rumours that Graham Brady will be seeing Theresa May tomorrow.
Fingers crossed.

[Despite worrying about what's next]
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Yes - the "what's next" bit is a worrier.
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

@PaulfromYorkshire

Have you read Willow904's link (above) to mainlymacro? That's a worrier, too.
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Home Office fails to suspend 'golden visa' scheme

Controversial scheme selling UK visas to wealthy foreigners was due to be suspended in anti-corruption drive
The lovely Caroline Nokes strikes again.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... isa-scheme
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Night night.
gilsey
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by gilsey »

PorFavor wrote:Yes - the "what's next" bit is a worrier.
It is, but preferable to paralysis. IMO.
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gilsey
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by gilsey »

Boris Johnson has revealed he is dieting and has lost 12 pounds in two weeks
Tom Watson, reacting to Boris diet revelation, said: “I applaud Boris Johnson’s diet, I know what it’s like being a middle aged man trying to get fit, but the truth is he won’t lose weight if he keeps trying to have his cake and eat it.”
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Boom boom :twisted:
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adam
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Re: Tuesday 11th December 2018

Post by adam »

A few weeks ago the standard view was that May would win a (1922) confidence vote easily. I wonder if that view still holds? And if she loses, I wonder if the bulk of the non-ERG parliamentary conservative party can connive to put two 'moderate' (those inverted commas are heavy, man) candidates through to the membership vote? And I wonder if the membership would revolt and have a write in.
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