Wednesday 12th December 2018

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PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Here we go -

Theresa May wins Confidence Vote. 200 (for) 117 (against). Majority 83.
.
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Sky'sGoneOut
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by Sky'sGoneOut »

That'll do pigs, that'll do.
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Night night.
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Willow904
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
·
12m
Rees Mogg says “this is a terrible result for the prime minister... The PM must realise that under all constitutional norms she should go and see the Queen..”
Can anyone think of a PM who stood down as a consequence of winning a no confidence vote?
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Well, what happened to Thatcher in 1990 wasn't massively different really.

That's a very "grey area" result isn't it? Exactly 200 votes for May is almost suspiciously neat.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
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Sky'sGoneOut
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by Sky'sGoneOut »

I had it on radio 5 while I was cooking and they had a panel of young conservative activists from across the country to discuss the result, all of whom were less than impressed by the ERG calls for May to resign, a couple of them actually sounded pretty furious about it, and all of them said May should stay on.

Hopefully that's an indication that the ERG's bolt is now well and truly shot.

Yes this was a really bad result for May, but for them not to be able to unseat a Prime Minister in the state she's in under circumstances like these only goes to demonstrate their weakness. This was their chance and they blew it.

Now it's over to Corbyn to completely fail to take advantage of the situation.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:I had it on radio 5 while I was cooking and they had a panel of young conservative activists from across the country to discuss the result, all of whom were less than impressed by the ERG calls for May to resign, a couple of them actually sounded pretty furious about it, and all of them said May should stay on.

Hopefully that's an indication that the ERG's bolt is now well and truly shot.

Yes this was a really bad result for May, but for them not to be able to unseat a Prime Minister in the state she's in under circumstances like these only goes to demonstrate their weakness. This was their chance and they blew it.

Now it's over to Corbyn to completely fail to take advantage of the situation.
Corbyn is pressing for the Meaningful Vote to actually happen.

That could flush the DUP out.

THEN is the time to strike.

Surely that is a smart plan?
howsillyofme1
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Evening

Terribly result for May really as she will now be a lame duck and has had to promise to go to win. She also saw it as appropriate to bring back some people under investigation for serious harassment which should lead to strong condemnation on its own and lead to her being treated with contempt - unsurprisingly not mentioned much. though

Removing her was always going to be difficult as any rational opponent of her would see removing a PM now is a really unwise thing to do but even then she still had a heavy vote against

The ERG are not dead though by any means as they know her deal is not dead and they always have the nuclear option of refusing to support her in a confidence vote

As to the comment about 'Corbyn failing to take advantage of the situation'. I would like someone to point out realistically what particular errors he has made and how an alternative would have helped. Not just posturing but led to a concretely more advantageous outcome?

I see nothing he could have done particularly differently. That may not last and it may be that errors will be made when he has to actually deliver something on behalf of the country, but he is in the fortunate position that he doesn't and he is using that to his advantage. Why commit to something when he doesn't have to? If another GE comes along one becomes impossible before March then we will have to judge his response when that transpires.

I personally thought he would have had to commit by now but he hasn't and May is no longer able to avoid the consequences of her actions. I am sure she is fuming that Labour have not abandoned their ambiguity yet as she has found the minute you lay something concrete out there then it all falls apart. How Labour manage if it drops to then, who really knows? Personally, I think a General Election run on a manifesto commitment that rules out no deal and allows a 2nd vote is a better prospect than just announcing a 2nd referendum without a mandate

We are in a position that there is a real chance of the Tories being out of power prior to March 29th and if that doesn't happen then a possibility of a second vote but with reasoning that doesn't lead to a significant impact on Labour electability.

I would just refer people back to the negative impact on the SNP by overreaching regarding a second Indy ref prior to GE 2017 and the impact it had

Some people may see a comfort blanket in making dramatic overtures to a 2nd referendum etc but I see that as an overreach that would do some damage for no benefit. How well are the parties openly campaigning for a referendum doing electorally at he moment?
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adam
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by adam »

Corbyn's immediate response was to call for her to bring her withdrawal bill to a vote in the house within the next week, which seems to be a perfectly sensible and productive response.
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Willow904
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by Willow904 »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well, what happened to Thatcher in 1990 wasn't massively different really.

That's a very "grey area" result isn't it? Exactly 200 votes for May is almost suspiciously neat.
Thatcher didn't win her vote, though, she pulled out before a rerun she thought she might lose. The fact the rules applied this time made it much easier for May to win is neither here nor there, she won the vote under Tory party rules, so why should she resign? A PM is expected to resign when they lose the confidence of the house but Rees-Mogg's bloc doesn't even constitute a majority of the Tory party let alone the Commons so on what grounds should this minority dictate the PM stand down? Goodness knows the Tories had a fit when Gordon Brown took over from Blair without an election, yet they think a minority of backbenchers have a constitutional right to replace May even when she saw off their challenge under rules they all knew they were playing by? So who says how many votes is enough, if we're not playing by the written rules, Rees-Mogg? It's an absolute joke. If he doesn't like the deal he knows what to do, call a no confidence vote in the government because May didn't negotiate the withdrawal agreement, the frigging UK government negotiated it, his frigging government and if he's not happy with it I'd be happy to help him elect a new one. Frigging tosspot. Obviously I'm not unhappy he's damaging the Tory party along with his own credibility but the whole "although she won she really lost" crap really wound me up. If Tory MPs think more than a simple majority is needed they need to put it in the rules, because as far as I'm concerned if a small majority is enough to take an entire country out of the EU it's more than ample to prop up a besieged PM for a few more lousy months.

Sorry for the vent but today's spectacle is just that, a spectacle. Time for Mogg and co to grow up and start taking being the party of government seriously.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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adam
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by adam »

Willow904 wrote:Sorry for the vent ..
When you're too polite to say anything more than 'frigging' I don't think there's any need for an apology.
I still believe in a town called Hope
howsillyofme1
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by howsillyofme1 »

I don't really care about the ERG and their carry on

What I do care about is that we have a PM who has lost control of the HoC and cannot command a majority on the biggest decision in recent years. This is down to her inept approach to the negotiations and seeming inability to relate to people. She even thought it was a a good idea to bring some people under investigation for serious sexual harassment cases back into the fold jus so they could vote for her - disgusting!

Without this 'spectacle' today we would not have such a stark example of how she has lost control of her party at this critical time and actually made some of the media look at this objectively. She has treated Parliament with absolute contempt

We need something to happen that breaks this impasse and lead us to a new Government with a mandate to write off no deal and the option to call a referendum if nothing else can be made to work

The idea of this seriously incompetent Government negotiating our future relationship with the EU with no indication from this agreement about what that would look like is unacceptable.

Theresa May wanted this job and she has also seems completely focused on keeping it. Rees Mogg is a contemptuous individual but she is the weak leader who has presided over this charade and she is accountable.

Too many people want to let her off the hook and look elsewhere for blame.....I don't
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by citizenJA »

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales: 2017 to 2018 (provisional) and 2016 to 2017 (final)

- Excess winter deaths in 2017 to 2018 are the highest recorded since the winter of 1975 to 1976
- The number of EWD observed in 2017 to 2018 was higher than all years since the 1975 to 1976 winter period when there were 58,100 EWD
- Compared with recent winters, the EWD observed in 2017 to 2018 were 45.1% higher than the 2016 to 2017 winter and more than doubled since the 2015 to 2016 winter

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 75-to-1976" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by citizenJA »

Good morfternoon, everyone
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by citizenJA »

RogerOThornhill wrote:A bit of a cock up on the communication front...so no coach and therefore no swim. Result - one class of disappointed kids...

:(
At first, I thought you were referring to government
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Sky'sGoneOut
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by Sky'sGoneOut »

My entire problem with Corbyn's approach is that it's utterly fanciful. First he needs a general election which requires a no confidence vote Labour can't win. I just heard Nigel Dodds and Andrew Bridgen both say they'd never side with Labour under Corbyn so either they're lying, which is always a possibility I grant you, or the ERG and DUP really will prop up this government given the alternative, which is the position they've always taken. Then if they somehow magically manage that they need to win a GE after bringing the government down in the middle of the Brexit process which is not going to be popular. Just look at the anger the Tories brought upon themselves today. At the last GE May was seen to be playing politics with Brexit and she took a kicking, what makes you think the same wouldn't happen to Corbyn? After that of course apparently Labour think the EU will suddenly be happy to reopen negotiations with them and compromise on the single market and freedom of movement. That is never, ever going to happen. The EU have said this until they are collectively blue in the face. it's delusional to think otherwise.

Labour are fiddling while Rome burns hoping to profit from it, all Corbyn and his flunkies care about is taking advantage of this Brexit chaos to try to get themselves into power. And that's fine if you happen to be them or to support them, but there's the possibility of a cross party coalition to either neuter brexit or put it to another vote that has a far more realistic chance of success than the selfish fantasy politics Labour are currently indulging in.
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by citizenJA »

PorFavor wrote:Night night.
Good-night, PorFavor
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by citizenJA »

@Willow904
Excellent post, well-said
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018

Post by citizenJA »

Goodnight, all
love,
cJA
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