FlyTheNest

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 7:04 am**

Morning all.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 8:05 am**

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Landlord fined £25,000 over lack of hot water for disabled tenant
Judith Wilson, who owns 300 houses in Kent, ignored council enforcement notices

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 8:16 am**

https://newsthump.com/2018/12/12/63-of- ... brexiters/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"63% of the vote is not a big enough majority ” insist irony- free Brexiters"

Without irony , Jacob Rees- Mogg and those other ERG wankers have suggested the Prime Minister should still resign , while absolutely maintaining that the EU referendum result should remain untouched with a much smaller percentage of the vote of at just 52% .
” It might seem like an inconsistency to you, but I suspect you’ re just not terribly bright, ” said Jacob Rees-Mogg from his ever-punchable face.

(newsthump)

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 9:02 am**

Preach absently in a spin for Minister on Today Programme (7,7).

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 9:19 am**

Morning all.

A rather sombre day in the ROT household - it's five years since I got a call from the hospital which said "We need to update you on what happened during the night..." and we have a funeral to attend later of someone we've known for many years and who knew my mum and dad very well.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 9:33 am**

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

A rather sombre day in the ROT household - it's five years since I got a call from the hospital which said "We need to update you on what happened during the night..." and we have a funeral to attend later of someone we've known for many years and who knew my mum and dad very well.

take care x

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 9:41 am**

tinybgoat wrote:https://newsthump.com/2018/12/12/63-of- ... brexiters/
"63% of the vote is not a big enough majority ” insist irony- free Brexiters"
Without irony , Jacob Rees- Mogg and those other ERG wankers have suggested the Prime Minister should still resign , while absolutely maintaining that the EU referendum result should remain untouched with a much smaller percentage of the vote of at just 52% .
” It might seem like an inconsistency to you, but I suspect you’ re just not terribly bright, ” said Jacob Rees-Mogg from his ever-punchable face.
(newsthump)

Okay. Well I think the point about 52% being a clear and unambiguous mandate is clearly bollocks but I also agree with him that in the context of a confidence vote within your parliamentary party 63% is desperately weak and really not a secure majority. Assuming she had the payroll vote (which you can't entirely do but I understand the idea) she got the support of about a third of the back benchers - that's incredibly weak.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 9:48 am**

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Preach absently in a spin for Minister on Today Programme (7,7).

I'm having trouble with that one! My brain's not in gear.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 9:49 am**

Good morfternoon.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 9:52 am**

Good-morning, everyone

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 10:10 am**

PorFavor wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Preach absently in a spin for Minister on Today Programme (7,7).
I'm having trouble with that one! My brain's not in gear.

Don't worry, it's not just you. Only yesterday I realised I didn't actually know who the Brexit Secretary was, after Raab.
Also he's not usually known by his full name, which PfY has used.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 10:30 am**

I'm fairly sure that the reason for everything being rushed yesterday was partly to help Theresa May but, really, who organises a "coup" without having made the necessary preparations for when the moment comes? (Answer: Jacob Rees Mogg. Pillock.)

Edited - typo

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 10:31 am**

http://www.cascaidr.org.uk/2018/04/01/s ... tm_source=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 10:35 am**

"The listed factors in the wellbeing section 1(2) in the Care Act that must be considered in order to identify the needs properly (there are more in s1(3) mentioned above) include:

(a) personal dignity (including treatment of the individual with respect);

(b) physical and mental health and emotional well-being;

(c) protection from abuse and neglect;

(d) control by the individual over day-to-day life (including over care and support, or support, provided to the individual and the way in which it is provided);

(e) participation in work, education, training or recreation;

(f) social and economic well-being;

(g) domestic, family and personal relationships;

(h) suitability of living accommodation;

(i) the individual’s contribution to society."

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 10:43 am**

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... t.html?m=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 10:58 am**

20s ago 05:56
German parliament votes to oppose renegotiation of Brexit deal (Politics Live, Guardian)

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:13 am**

HindleA wrote:https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... t.html?m=1

I have until recently been unduly pessimistic about the chances of a People’s Vote because I had implicitly assumed that the Brexiters would back a compromise, figuring that it would be a stepping stone to a harder Brexit at some later stage. The fact that for Brexiters a compromise may be worse than staying in the EU will lead them to risk Brexit itself by going to the wire.

A majority of Tory voters supported leave so it's not inconceivable that a Tory PM, when push comes to shove, may allow us to go out with no deal as opposed to revoking article 50 and delivering no Brexit at all.
If May truly wants to avoid this scenario she needs to move to a softer Brexit position and courting cross party consensus. I'm having difficulty envisaging May making such a bold move, but the fact she can't be challenged again for a year does open up opportunities in this direction which previously weren't really there.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:24 am**

PorFavor wrote:I'm fairly sure that the reason for everything being rushed yesterday was partly to help Theresa May but, really, who organises a "coup" without having made the necessary preparations for when the moment comes? (Answer: Jacob Rees Mogg. Pillock.)

No argument with calling JRM a pillock but I've seen a few conspiracy theorists hypothesising that some May supporters sent in letters to Brady so the vote could be precipitated before the ERG could prepare.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:25 am**

Willow904 wrote:
HindleA wrote:https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... t.html?m=1

I have until recently been unduly pessimistic about the chances of a People’s Vote because I had implicitly assumed that the Brexiters would back a compromise, figuring that it would be a stepping stone to a harder Brexit at some later stage. The fact that for Brexiters a compromise may be worse than staying in the EU will lead them to risk Brexit itself by going to the wire.
A majority of Tory voters supported leave so it's not inconceivable that a Tory PM, when push comes to shove, may allow us to go out with no deal as opposed to revoking article 50 and delivering no Brexit at all.
If May truly wants to avoid this scenario she needs to move to a softer Brexit position and courting cross party consensus. I'm having difficulty envisaging May making such a bold move, but the fact she can't be challenged again for a year does open up opportunities in this direction which previously weren't really there.

I think that her 'There are no extremists here' shows that she is still effectively beholden to the extremists in her party. It's difficult to know what she's thinking about this (other than 'tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow') - does she think the ERG will eventually decide that something is better than nothing and vote for her deal? I can't see it, and I can't see the DUP voting for it in any circumstances at all. She seems to be short by well over a hundred votes - an awful lot more than she could hope to pick off from the opposition benches. She's not going to get anything substantive from Europe. If she says to the ERG 'it's this or no deal' they will say 'thank you very much, no deal' because they are extremists (resisting the temptation to go to bold or caps lock)(just).

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:28 am**

Strangely enough, I've just come across a blog that explores the possibilities a year's freedom from challenge could present May, as I touched upon in my above comment. They don't seem to be any more optimistic than me that she'll take any of them though:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... l?spref=tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Brexit Ultras could have unwittingly gifted May, and the country, a slender lifeline – if she’ll use it

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:31 am**

PorFavor wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Preach absently in a spin for Minister on Today Programme (7,7).
I'm having trouble with that one! My brain's not in gear.

*Hint

He hasn't been a Minster for very long. And probably won't be!

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:33 am**

Morning

Best wishes to RoT

I apologise for returning to the board and giving my view - if unwelcome I apologise

I return to the comment I made last night about wanting to see some concrete critique of the position taking by the Labour leadership and how things would have been materially improved by them taking a different direction. I know some of that would be subjective but I would like to see something to coutermand the facts

Most of the comments about future direction I read on here and criticisms are fine and often summarise ssome of my lingering concerns too. However, we do see comments about Labour's 'fanstasy politics' and 'fiddling while Rome butrns' that I feel are unfair and worthy of challenge

My point is that we, as well as most pundits, have an absolutely appalling record of prediction and yet still seem to think our pronouncements are correct The facts and the current situation suggest we should be more respectful of the political nouse of the leadership (although also helped with some good helping of luck as well).

In 2016 Labour was undergoing a party split, 20+ points down in the polls, a self-confident Tory Party with a comfortable majority and with absolutely no say on Brexit.

Moving forward to the end of 2018, we have a Tory minority Government with a PM not commanding a majortiy, the potential to force a GE through a No Confidence vote and opening up the possibility of delaying or even abandoning Brexit. That is nothing to say of a completely split Tory Party, Labour in a much better place than it was and currently not being punished in the polls for not being totally clear on their policy position.

As I said, luck comes into it and some of this was probably always coming to pass with the self-contradictions of Brexit and internal Tory pressures but I am a bit tired of the 'no opposition' and 'we should be 20% ahead' garbage.

In view of that I think we should cut the leadership some slack and accept they may know what they are doing. Past success is not guarantee of future success but I think it is still a better platform than having been wrong!

Remember the Labour wipeout preditions and existential concern from June 2017......?

This does not mean their approach will definitely work by the way and I still have some real concerns but I do think some of the invective and anger I see expressed against Corbyn, when compared to the benefit of the doubt, based on absolutely nothing, given to May both worrying and telling

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:35 am**

gilsey wrote:
PorFavor wrote:I'm fairly sure that the reason for everything being rushed yesterday was partly to help Theresa May but, really, who organises a "coup" without having made the necessary preparations for when the moment comes? (Answer: Jacob Rees Mogg. Pillock.)
No argument with calling JRM a pillock but I've seen a few conspiracy theorists hypothesising that some May supporters sent in letters to Brady so the vote could be precipitated before the ERG could prepare.

Do the May supporters have a plan to break the deadlock now they've got the ERG out of the way, though? Because it would be nice to think someone near the reins of government has a plan as May certainly doesn't seem to, beyond keeping her fingers crossed and hoping everyone else will blink first.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:35 am**

Now this is an interesting Question Time line-up.

I may even watch for once!

Nicky Morgan, Angela Rayner, David Davis, Caroline Lucas, Jo Brand

Quite how Davis will cope I don't know. Well I do - he'll just grin inanely.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:37 am**

howsillyofme1 wrote: I apologise for returning to the board and giving my view - if unwelcome I apologise

Don't be soft.

Edited to add- I've seen a lot of criticism of Labour's position on the timing of a no confidence vote in other places, but all but none here.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:41 am**

@HowSilly

Good to hear from you.

My take on this is that anyone talking with certainty about the way forward on Brexit deserves to be challenged. The term "uncharted waters" gets overused, but seems appropriate here.

For me the warning signs in a comment are "Labour must.....", "Corbyn has to....."

They clearly don't have to, nor is there any clear reason why they should.

Labour and a bit the SNP are the only groups who are talking about finding a consensus position on Brexit, rather than richocheting referendums between extreme positions. That doesn't make them right, but it deserves serious consideration IMHO.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:43 am**

Willow904 wrote:
gilsey wrote:
PorFavor wrote:I'm fairly sure that the reason for everything being rushed yesterday was partly to help Theresa May but, really, who organises a "coup" without having made the necessary preparations for when the moment comes? (Answer: Jacob Rees Mogg. Pillock.)
No argument with calling JRM a pillock but I've seen a few conspiracy theorists hypothesising that some May supporters sent in letters to Brady so the vote could be precipitated before the ERG could prepare.
Do the May supporters have a plan to break the deadlock now they've got the ERG out of the way, though? Because it would be nice to think someone near the reins of government has a plan as May certainly doesn't seem to, beyond keeping her fingers crossed and hoping everyone else will blink first.

She appears to think she will get something in terms of intent or desire or wishes from the EU about the nature of the backstop, but it appears to be very very clear that all she will get is a bit of hopeful language. It might be worth having a look at what was changed between the first and second versions of the December 2017 agreement when the DUP blew up at the original version - I'll have a look a bit later if nobody gets there first.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:44 am**

The replies on this are really rather good...

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Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:49 am**

adam wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote: I apologise for returning to the board and giving my view - if unwelcome I apologise
Don't be soft.

Edited to add- I've seen a lot of criticism of Labour's position on the timing of a no confidence vote in other places, but all but none here.

Hi Adam,

Thank you. Most of the citicism on here is fair and I am not responding to that.....as I said there are lingering concerns.

There are posts, however, that do go too far I think and also I do see the tendency to give May the benfit of the doubt sometimes which I am absolutely against as she has been the one who has been accountable for the mess of the negotiations and her choice of negotiators.

I do think there is a general lack of respect for Corbyn though and it is easy to forget that he has negotiated the path very well indeed up to now. Whether hindsight will draw the same conclusion we can see but he has proved to be right more times than we have to be fair

On the No Confidence vote that is a good example.

The easy option would have been to table this straight away and give in to the pressure coming from others on the opposition benches. He knew he would lose and so kep to his guns and if he had followed Chukka's advice he would have call the vote on the day the 48 letters went in and so manage to unite the Tories. Do any of those calling for the vote to be had, whether pundits or politicians, ever come back and say 'we were wrong'. Like heck do they and we still see Chukka trailing around the TV studios with no sense of humility or contrition.

For a Labour politician to try and call a vote in the Government now when it is obvious it would lose would suggest and ulterior motive that should be treated with the contempt it deserves.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 11:50 am**

gilsey wrote:
PorFavor wrote:I'm fairly sure that the reason for everything being rushed yesterday was partly to help Theresa May but, really, who organises a "coup" without having made the necessary preparations for when the moment comes? (Answer: Jacob Rees Mogg. Pillock.)
No argument with calling JRM a pillock but I've seen a few conspiracy theorists hypothesising that some May supporters sent in letters to Brady so the vote could be precipitated before the ERG could prepare.

yep

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 12:01 pm**

I for one am very pleased to see you back here, howsilly. Do please continue to express your views

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 12:15 pm**

Thanks AK

Was thinking of you when watching chess WC the other week

I think some of these political games are a bit like chess and trying to think moves ahead and forcing your opponent down one path or another whilst defending your own. Sometimes it is difficult for us to guess what moves are right or wrong when looked at in isolation.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 12:22 pm**

I gave up chess for bocce ball

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 12:38 pm**

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Now this is an interesting Question Time line-up.

I may even watch for once!

Nicky Morgan, Angela Rayner, David Davis, Caroline Lucas, Jo Brand

Quite how Davis will cope I don't know. Well I do - he'll just grin inanely.

A reasonably left wing panel!

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 12:52 pm**

I think it was a bogus leadership challenge done after a Tory PM found herself and party humiliated in the House
They're sort of like the Borg except not as charming

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 1:04 pm**

May said she was not expecting a “breakthrough” on the Brexit deal at this week’s EU summit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... b33ff8e7c6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

she's just come to shop

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 1:14 pm**

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

A rather sombre day in the ROT household - it's five years since I got a call from the hospital which said "We need to update you on what happened during the night..." and we have a funeral to attend later of someone we've known for many years and who knew my mum and dad very well.

Sorry for your loss.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 2:07 pm**

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Now this is an interesting Question Time line-up.

I may even watch for once!

Nicky Morgan, Angela Rayner, David Davis, Caroline Lucas, Jo Brand

Quite how Davis will cope I don't know. Well I do - he'll just grin inanely.
A reasonably left wing panel!

Fiona's had a word?
More likely about m/f balance than political leanings, but still.

DD may be the only male MP they could find daft enough to volunteer.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 2:41 pm**

No idea what Bruce's political leanings are these days, but she was a Greenham Common girl in her yoof.

(and I do recall her reporting from Blair's constituency on 1997 GE night, and not exactly looking terribly displeased at what was going on)

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 3:43 pm**

Austrian chancellor says it is hard to know what will satisfy Brexiters because their arguments aren't rational (Politics Live, Guardian)

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 3:51 pm**

PorFavor wrote:
Austrian chancellor says it is hard to know what will satisfy Brexiters because their arguments aren't rational (Politics Live, Guardian)

Well I'm glad someone said it!

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 3:54 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... -childrenP" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 4:31 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... e-patients" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 4:33 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... ve-country" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 4:36 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... scuit-fund" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 5:07 pm**

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... scuit-fund

Talk about the poor just getting crumbs.......

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 6:56 pm**

Mark Steel:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/th ... 82026.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

At the moment, May is claiming victory, because she insisted without her the country would collapse into unspeakable irreparable annihilation. And only 38 per cent of her own MPs preferred that to her.
If she’s smart, she’ll make sure all her elections are like this. Either you vote for her, or you’re placed in solitary confinement in a North Korean prison. Then she’ll appear in Downing Street beaming “once again I have a clear mandate, with 57 per cent of voters making a choice of preferring stability with me, to being fed to a rabid pack of wolves”.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 7:10 pm**

I paraphrase, but the EU is more or less telling Theresa May to give up (shut up?) and simply revoke (or extend) Article 50. (Sky TV news)

Edited to add - (or extend)

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 7:27 pm**

Yes, it could well end up not (as our PM still probably imagines) "my deal or no deal" but "in some way delay/set aside A50 or no deal".

Our PM has said she will "never" do that, and will "never" call another referendum either. Which means that a new PM may have to do one (or both) of those things.

Posted: **Thu 13 Dec, 2018 8:39 pm**

I..i..i..t's PTO time!

FlyTheNest

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