Saturday 15th & Sunday 16th December 2018

Post by **refitman** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 1:16 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Sajid javid seems to ignore the fact that non-EU net migration is far greater than for the EU.

Non-EU net migration was the highest since 2004, with 248,000 more non-EU citizens arriving than leaving the UK and at a similar level to that seen in 2011. Increases in immigration for both work and study have been seen in the most recent year, particularly for Asian citizens.

The overall number of EU citizens coming to the UK continues to add to the population as 74,000 more EU citizens came to the UK than left. This was the lowest estimate for EU net migration since 2012 and the lowest immigration level since 2014
Kinda weird that this is the number they can do something about if they wanted to achieve that "tens of thousands" target but seem to ignore it.

We all know that it's the Muslims from eastern Europe that are the problem. Not the Muslims from, you know, actual Muslim countries.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 1:20 pm

Willow904 wrote:I'm assuming a further referendum has more hope of commanding a majority in parliament than any other option because Keir Starmer was hinting Labour may have to get behind one. I'm pretty certain this isn't because it's his preferred option but because it's possibly the only option. As he has more insight into where everyone stands than I do I'm having to come around to accepting one may have to happen. It would at least spare Labour the difficulty of compiling a manifesto that doesn't completely annihilate a large chunk of either their leave or remain voters - an impossibility in my opinion.

I still think a single market solution is the best way forward, personally, I always have, but currently it's looking like the least likely outcome, despite some support on the Tory backbenches.

Actually, despite some official Labour scepticism I think a "Norway" option is one of the few I could see commanding majority support amongst MPs.

Much more of a problem here is that our current PM is adamantly opposed to it, as it would fail her "we must curb FoM at all costs" obsession.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 1:20 pm

https://www.indy100.com/article/love-ac ... on-8685536" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Dutch Politician does smiley Love Actually message to UK.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 1:26 pm

https://news.sky.com/video/second-brexi ... y-11582942" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Second Brexit referendum would be divisive, says Education Secretary

Unlike the first which has brought nothing but peace and harmony to archipelago UK.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 1:38 pm

I don't object to another referendum in principle, but some things do bother me:

1) what if leave wins again, many of its proponents seem to blithely assume remain would win a landslide;
2) even if the vote is to stay, would yet another close result - even if the "other" way - resolve very much?
3) what is the ballot paper actually going to SAY?? Even campaigners for another vote aren't united on this;
4) if the remain campaign is run by the same types as in 2016, and the message is no more inspiring than "lets restore the status quo" then another failure is pretty likely.

I would like to see some sign that its advocates are dealing with these questions. There certainly wasn't much sign of it in Chuka's typically smug and slippery interview this morning

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 1:54 pm

I am concerned that a second referendum would deliver us the opposite of what we hope for because the lust of the committed Brexiters is strong, and the people of the UK are probably not collectively much more informed or realistic about the rest of the world than we were 2 years ago.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 1:57 pm

Plus I don't see Labour as even remotely committed to Remain so also fear another vote to Leave. Optimism is good, but like everything it should be practised in moderation.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 2:07 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Willow904 wrote:I'm assuming a further referendum has more hope of commanding a majority in parliament than any other option because Keir Starmer was hinting Labour may have to get behind one. I'm pretty certain this isn't because it's his preferred option but because it's possibly the only option. As he has more insight into where everyone stands than I do I'm having to come around to accepting one may have to happen. It would at least spare Labour the difficulty of compiling a manifesto that doesn't completely annihilate a large chunk of either their leave or remain voters - an impossibility in my opinion.

I still think a single market solution is the best way forward, personally, I always have, but currently it's looking like the least likely outcome, despite some support on the Tory backbenches.
Actually, despite some official Labour scepticism I think a "Norway" option is one of the few I could see commanding majority support amongst MPs.

Much more of a problem here is that our current PM is adamantly opposed to it, as it would fail her "we must curb FoM at all costs" obsession.

Still some hope, then.

I could certainly see the SNP accepting a single market option. It would suit the DUP as well, but that doesn't mean they would support it, of course, being completely barmy. As for official Labour scepticism, not being a mind reader, I have no option but to take what they say as being what they mean and thus I hold out very little hope, especially as the one front bench voice in favour in Starmer is now hinting at having to back a referendum. It's really not looking good. A Tory contingent could make a push for a single market option with some success but it's a pretty slim hope to rely on.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 2:24 pm

Still at least the fish pointer doesn't regret his monumental cock up.

Post by **refitman** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 2:41 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:Still at least the fish pointer doesn't regret his monumental cock up.

Matt Damon did a half-way good satire of Cameron for SNL: " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **refitman** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 3:25 pm

Wow, after weeks and weeks of finding all the people, including business owners, who 'just want them to get on with' Brexit, the Graun has finally done a piece on a single person who says it's gong to be a bad thing. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... or-no-deal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 3:42 pm

I am reminded of ?Brexit means Brexit' by the 'People Vote means Peoples Vote'

There seems to be a movement towards it (mainly led by a number of has-beens, never-wheres and discredited politicians) but with no real idea of how it would work

It has no electoral mandate - not necessarily insurmountable but it is likely not to prove universally popular
There is no real clarity on what it actually means
There is little discussion of the practicalities

I am not against in principle but can someone give me some answers to the following questions:

How will it be legislated for?

Without a GE it will have to be a Tory Gment bill to get the time. Most Tory MPs oppose another referendum and so do not a few Labour ones. There does not seem to be a majority in Parliament even to hold one and that is probably the easy bit.

What will the questions be?

This will be a Tory decision so I imagine if we get past the first hurdle then I do not see Remain being an option. If she convinces Tories to vote for a referendum then it will be No Deal vs May Deal. If by some miracle Remain is there too then we will end up with May's deal I would guess in a 3 way vote as the 'compromise'. I see Remain being an option as a remote possibility though.

How will the referendum campaign be kept positive?

Do we see any improvement from last time. There seems to be a weariness around about this whole thing and having a referendum with no electoral mandate will be consistently being challenged by the darker forces and the whole political establishment severely undermined. This will make the expenses scandal seem like a walk in the park. You will have the extreme Brexiteers vs extreme FBPE'ers. Not going to be positive is it?

The Aftermath?

If May's Deal gets through then we could have saved all the bother and divisiveness. If by some means Remain is there and wins through it will likely be by no great majority and what do we do then? The Government will then have to legislate to withdraw A50 but it is the same Parliament as now and would this pass? What will the 48% say? Anyhow, the Tories will still be in power and it is they who will negotiate the future state - no GE until 2022, Corbyn probably gone to be replaced by some nice 'centrist' and we are all Happy Ever After!

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 3:45 pm

And just to add the 'Norway+ Option' is just kicking the can down the road.

What do you think will get blamed at the next recession? You think the Tories will blame their extreme neoliberal austerity politics or blame the rule enforcing EU?

My response is a GE that gives a Gment (hopefully) a mandate that includes a second referendum with Remain as an option - we can then try to win

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 3:48 pm

It's a perfect lose lose however you look at it

Post by **refitman** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 3:49 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:And just to add the 'Norway+ Option' is just kicking the can down the road.

What do you think will get blamed at the next recession? You think the Tories will blame their extreme neoliberal austerity politics or blame the rule enforcing EU?

My response is a GE that gives a Gment (hopefully) a mandate that includes a second referendum with Remain as an option - we can then try to win

Norway is a non-starter, as Norway themselves have said they'd veto out membership of EFTA.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 3:57 pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/b ... -1.3733034" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
So, amidst all the sound and fury, the probability of an economic, political and social catastrophe is growing by the day. These things are terribly subjective, but it seems to me that the risks of an accidental Brexit, the one that only the fanatics want, are now higher than ever. Perhaps catastrophe is now the most likely outcome of all. It’s worth repeating: something rather dramatic now needs to happen to avert this.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 4:04 pm

EFTA isn't the only way to stay in the single market or otherwise the backstop, that seeks to keep NI in the single market, couldn't happen.

The EU is primarily concerned with the integrity of the single market, if the UK is willing to accept the four freedoms I'd be extremely surprised if a way couldn't be found to keep us in.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 4:12 pm

Willow904 wrote:EFTA isn't the only way to stay in the single market or otherwise the backstop, that seeks to keep NI in the single market, couldn't happen.

The EU is primarily concerned with the integrity of the single market, if the UK is willing to accept the four freedoms I'd be extremely surprised if a way couldn't be found to keep us in.

I made this argument ages ago and I was told I was talking nonsense!

The future state is all treaty driven so we could sign a treaty with the EU that is outside EFTA and EU...some have indicated a 3rd pillar to EEA that is the UK alone but that doesn't seem a goer

The Swiss use bilaterals to gain access to some of the Single Market

The Single Market does not in reality exist - it is used as shorthand to describe certain obligations set out in a treaty

I think this is Labour's intention to gain sufficient access to the Single Market - similar to CH but a little less messy. Don't think the EU are too keen but who knows as Labour are not in negotiations despite what the media seem to think

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 4:14 pm

https://wingsoverscotland.com/independence-for-england/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

OK it's Wings Over Scotland, but it's a valid point. Well except for ignoring the fact that almost all major English cities voted to stay. Including London which is in 'the South'.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 4:22 pm

Except Corbyn has argued against free movement of people and talks negatively about "state aid rules" none of which suggests Labour means being a fully signed up member of the single market when they talk about "access".

None of which matters very much, though, if Labour doesn't manage to force a General Election pretty soon. We're running out of time. I don't think anyone's very interested in what we could have won if the last election had gone the other way.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 4:40 pm

The EU rules in some aspects are clearly unacceptable to some of us and that includes the Labour leadership.

How that would affect a deal is difficult to say as 'Remain and Reform' is the policy.

I still believe the only chance we have is to push for a GE keeping the option for another vote if that is the only way to prevent no deal

By the way can someone justify the omnipresence of Chukka Umunna?

Post by **refitman** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 4:45 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:The EU rules in some aspects are clearly unacceptable to some of us and that includes the Labour leadership.

How that would affect a deal is difficult to say as 'Remain and Reform' is the policy.

I still believe the only chance we have is to push for a GE keeping the option for another vote if that is the only way to prevent no deal

By the way can someone justify the omnipresence of Chukka Umunna?

He's well groomed and has the phone numbers of all the jouros.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 5:01 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I don't object to another referendum in principle, but some things do bother me:

1) what if leave wins again, many of its proponents seem to blithely assume remain would win a landslide;
2) even if the vote is to stay, would yet another close result - even if the "other" way - resolve very much?
3) what is the ballot paper actually going to SAY?? Even campaigners for another vote aren't united on this;
4) if the remain campaign is run by the same types as in 2016, and the message is no more inspiring than "lets restore the status quo" then another failure is pretty likely.

I would like to see some sign that its advocates are dealing with these questions. There certainly wasn't much sign of it in Chuka's typically smug and slippery interview this morning

1) I personally would be more comfortable with leaving after another vote. My fault for sharing the country with these *.
2) No.
3) Same again. No other sensible option imo. Save a lot of to-ing and fro-ing.
4) Yep.

* insert expletive of choice

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 5:03 pm

This is where I stand. Parliament got us into this mess and parliament should get us out of it.

gilsey wrote:A man after my own heart.
A call for the revocation of Article 50

The key fact is this. The Government has, quite simply, not managed to come up with a vision of Brexit which is able to command sufficient support, either in Parliament or in the country. Brexiters have disowned the Withdrawal Agreement. Support for no deal is also very low. Parliament, in triggering Article 50 in March 2017, agreed to allow the Government to pursue and deliver Brexit. The Government, however, has not proved up to the task
A great advantage that he doesn't mention is that the opprobrium for overriding TWOTP would fall on MPs, where it belongs, instead of further dividing the people.

I know, it'll never happen, but what will?

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 6:18 pm

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 6.html?amp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Brexit: Labour would fall behind Lib Dems if Corbyn backs May's deal, polls finds"
"The YouGov poll also shows growing support for Britain remaining in the EU more generally.
When asked to choose between staying in the EU and Ms May’s Brexit deal, Remain enjoys an 18-point lead: 59 to 41 per cent. Counting only those who say they are certain to vote, Remain currently leads by 63 to 37 per cent."

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 6:29 pm

tinybgoat wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 6.html?amp
"Brexit: Labour would fall behind Lib Dems if Corbyn backs May's deal, polls finds"
"The YouGov poll also shows growing support for Britain remaining in the EU more generally.
When asked to choose between staying in the EU and Ms May’s Brexit deal, Remain enjoys an 18-point lead: 59 to 41 per cent. Counting only those who say they are certain to vote, Remain currently leads by 63 to 37 per cent."

and where is anyone in the Labour leadership saying they would back the deal?

I would love to believe the poll and if we could be sure of Remain vs her deal then I would be more comfortable with a referendum but I cannot see a Tory Government giving us that. The only thing that could force there hand is the Benn amendment getting passed and we get rid of this idea that no deal is an option

May could do this now.....there is an MP majority for it and then we are on the path to Remain vs her deal

But do we see any real pressure on her in the media....do we like hell, all we see is this fixation on Corbyn and making sure he is the story not her

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 7:47 pm

Would also love to believe the poll but am concerned we'll get some AV type thing where May's deal is everyone's second choice and then we celebrate for eternity what a fantastically popular job the Tories made of this whole nightmare.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 7:49 pm

Merry Brexmas

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -5000-jobs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Jaguar Land Rover to 'axe up to 5,000 jobs'

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 7:50 pm

OR: Merry Fraxmas

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... challenges" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
UK fracking policy faces court challenges
Friends of the Earth granted judicial review it hopes will help alter planning rules

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 8:43 pm

tinybgoat wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 6.html?amp
"Brexit: Labour would fall behind Lib Dems if Corbyn backs May's deal, polls finds"
"The YouGov poll also shows growing support for Britain remaining in the EU more generally.
When asked to choose between staying in the EU and Ms May’s Brexit deal, Remain enjoys an 18-point lead: 59 to 41 per cent. Counting only those who say they are certain to vote, Remain currently leads by 63 to 37 per cent."

This is a push poll for the People's Vote campaign, and as already said there is zero chance of "Corbyn backing May's deal" actually happening.

Only fit for the rubbish bin

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 8:48 pm

The other thing is that given that I think you can't have a referendum on something like this, am struggling to now think we should have a referendum on something like this. Tricky.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 8:49 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
tinybgoat wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 6.html?amp
"Brexit: Labour would fall behind Lib Dems if Corbyn backs May's deal, polls finds"
"The YouGov poll also shows growing support for Britain remaining in the EU more generally.
When asked to choose between staying in the EU and Ms May’s Brexit deal, Remain enjoys an 18-point lead: 59 to 41 per cent. Counting only those who say they are certain to vote, Remain currently leads by 63 to 37 per cent."
This is a push poll for the People's Vote campaign, and as already said there is zero chance of "Corbyn backing May's deal" actually happening.

Only fit for the rubbish bin

As I told Alistair Campbell on Twitter

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 8:51 pm

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 31370.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Brexit border audit discovers nearly 300 routes into Northern Ireland

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 8:54 pm

For me, as I've said before, the Peoples Vote would need to be May's Deal vs Remain and Reform.

I think a big missing part of the jigsaw (not here at FTN) is acknowledgement by the Remain camp (which includes me) that the EU we voted to leave is far from perfect.

And a recognition that we are all to blame for the state we're in, not just those who voted Leave.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 8:55 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... t-deadlock" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Brexit has come to test the patience of the British public. To make progress we should instead trust their wisdom and use it to resolve our differences, deepen our democracy and unite us all.

Any views on the potential of a citizens assembly?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 8:58 pm

Its an idea, but the sort of thing they should have been pushing for soon after the vote - not at ten minutes to midnight.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 9:04 pm

https://www.urgenda.nl/en/themas/climate-case/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The 2015 Urgenda Climate Case against the Dutch Government was the first in the world in which citizens held their government accountable for contributing to dangerous climate change.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 9:10 pm

Could the one silver lining we get out of all of this be the eventual move away from two-party first past the post situation to something more resilient - more appropriate to the world we have rather than the one we had 100 years ago.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 9:19 pm

: festive clanger.png (18.67 KiB) Viewed 5455 times

gearing up.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 9:21 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:
festive clanger.png
gearing up.

You can't seethe with Xmas antlers on

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 9:23 pm

watch me!

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 10:16 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:Could the one silver lining we get out of all of this be the eventual move away from two-party first past the post situation to something more resilient - more appropriate to the world we have rather than the one we had 100 years ago.

That would be unutterably marvelous.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 10:43 pm

This season I'm sporting the 'Nordic' black christmas tree from Argos, the lights were provided by Tesco from a reduced price bin I rooted around in.

And while it may in actuality be far too close to that gas fire I'm fairly confident I can avoid incinerating both it and myself.

Have we all finished our shopping?

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 11:17 pm

So what do we want?

It's quite obvious I want a second referendum and I think Labour are fucking about trying to fashion an opportunity to force a general election.

So which of these would you prefer?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 11:31 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 31370.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Brexit border audit discovers nearly 300 routes into Northern Ireland

Still, I'm sure there's an app that will fix everything...

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 11:35 pm

We need to work together and soon.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 11:47 pm

There is a great beast about to consume us and its name is brexit.

You can play politics with it or you can embrace it.

But the one thing you cannot do is please everyone with it.

And a few upset racists makes no difference to me. I couldn't care less.

Could you?

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sun 16 Dec, 2018 11:58 pm

Let's just stop this madness.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Mon 17 Dec, 2018 12:00 am

We need a second vote.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 17 Dec, 2018 5:19 am

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... hester-zoo

Are the gibbon safe?