Monday 17 December 2018

[Willow904]

So, Labour's next ploy.

Ask May to bring the WA back to the House immediately or they will table a no confidence vote in her.

I'm not sure I see the point.

She's been a lame duck PM since she lost her majority. If she hasn't been humiliated into resignation by her own backbenchers I can't see her being overly bothered by the opposition's poor opinion of her.

The "point" is only symbolic admittedly, but if this is passed with the help of unhappy DUP and Tory MPs its quite a powerful symbolism.

The difference now with previously is that many on all sides are coming to think that she treats parliament with contempt.

Looks like Corbyn is still going with it, despite a new date now having been set for the withdrawal agreement vote. Delaying it certainly wasn't acceptable, but it does look like there will be more time for debate which is probably needed as the actual ins and outs of the implications of the deal, especially the backstop, but also other elements, haven't yet been thoroughly discussed. I'd like to hear a bit more about the specifics and what the issues are and how MPs think these problems can be solved.

[Willow904]

Robert Peston
@Peston
As I understand it, Labour's no-confidence motion in PM will only be debated and voted on this week if government gives it time. @jeremycorbyn's position is that if @theresa_may refuses to give vote time, that would be because she is scared. And he reserves right, if she...
6:18 PM · Dec 17, 2018 · Twitter Web Client

Robert Peston
@Peston
Replying to
@Peston
...refuses, to put down motion of no confidence in entire government under Fixed Term Parliament Act (which is the only vote that could trigger a general election)

Is this a real move or just a bluff?

[howsillyofme1]

I don't think there will much new to discuss on the backstop. The legal position is the same as before. It is indefinitely temporary....why allow her to prevaricate more

The issue is May cannot deliver a deal that fulfils the requirements on avoiding a border based on her red lines

Other options could do so, such as Norway plus, but they are unpalatable as well but she won't even look at alternatives

[Willow904]

I don't think there will much new to discuss on the backstop. The legal position is the same as before. It is indefinitely temporary....why allow her to prevaricate more

The issue is May cannot deliver a deal that fulfils the requirements on avoiding a border based on her red lines

Other options could do so, such as Norway plus, but they are unpalatable as well but she won't even look at alternatives

I know the backstop being indefinite is a problem for those who don't want a customs union at all but how is May's indefinite customs union worse than Labour's permanent customs union? How do they differ to make one customs union undesirable as an indefinite backstop but another customs union desirable as a permanent solution? I'm still unclear on that. I agree only the whole of the UK being in the single market can prevent some degree of border in the Irish Sea. But how much of a border would there be there with a CU but no SM? Is it really that undesirable beyond the objections of the DUP, would it be acceptable to NI more generally? As I say, I understand the ERG and DUP objections, but not so much the objections of others tbh. I understand concerns about May's possible end objectives and "blind Brexit" but less so the objections to the withdrawal agreement itself.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

The BBC really is shameless

[howsillyofme1]

I don't think there will much new to discuss on the backstop. The legal position is the same as before. It is indefinitely temporary....why allow her to prevaricate more

The issue is May cannot deliver a deal that fulfils the requirements on avoiding a border based on her red lines

Other options could do so, such as Norway plus, but they are unpalatable as well but she won't even look at alternatives

I know the backstop being indefinite is a problem for those who don't want a customs union at all but how is May's indefinite customs union worse than Labour's permanent customs union? How do they differ to make one customs union undesirable as an indefinite backstop but another customs union desirable as a permanent solution? I'm still unclear on that. I agree only the whole of the UK being in the single market can prevent some degree of border in the Irish Sea. But how much of a border would there be there with a CU but no SM? Is it really that undesirable beyond the objections of the DUP, would it be acceptable to NI more generally? As I say, I understand the ERG and DUP objections, but not so much the objections of others tbh. I understand concerns about May's possible end objectives and "blind Brexit" but less so the objections to the withdrawal agreement itself.

Willow,

I think this is a good point but in some way it is coming to the EU position on all this. The WA really only looks at a few things - essentially the bill, citizen's rights and NI. The rest is just words in a political declaration that legally means nothing

The way I have read it (which may be completely wrong based on past form) is that a backstop would always have to exist in some form in order to ensure there is no border. The question is the desired future state of the parties and the Tories have explicitly ruled out anything that would actually make the backstop avoidable. Labour has not and if they are to follow their 6 tests then it would never be used

It is all around confidence in the parties - if they continue as they are a border in the Irish Sea is inevitable with the Tory policies unless you accept the mythical technology option. For Labour they will probably have to have a Norway plus (or even Switzerland plus) to avoid any new borders which has its own problems of course

The only option that works is Remain but we can see where that will cause problems for Labour at the moment. I do not think we have seen Labour play its cards yet as it seems they are following a set plan. Their primary focus is a GE to get control of the process - if that becomes impossible then we may see some drastic moves that surprise people

As I said the other day, Labour's tactics have been spot on so far as we are now seriously considering the collapse of the Tories and May's deal.

I am still waiting for someone to answer my challenge of identifying a tactical error they have made so far and what could have materially improved the current situation. For example, they could have opposed or abstained on the A50 vote but they would still have lost it and we would not be where we are now

[Willow904]

Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
EXCLUSIVE

Theresa May WILL allow time for Jeremy Corbyn's vote of no confidence in her tomorrow.

Told Government is convinced she will win - she has the backing of the ERG and DUP.

PM effectively Jeremy Corbyn's bluff.

Plus even if she did lose the motion is non-binding.
8:09 PM · Dec 17, 2018 · TweetDeck

Still not sure what it achieves, but it seems to be going ahead.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
EXCLUSIVE

Theresa May WILL allow time for Jeremy Corbyn's vote of no confidence in her tomorrow.

Told Government is convinced she will win - she has the backing of the ERG and DUP.

PM effectively Jeremy Corbyn's bluff.

Plus even if she did lose the motion is non-binding.
8:09 PM · Dec 17, 2018 · TweetDeck

Still not sure what it achieves, but it seems to be going ahead.

Well his aim is pretty clear. He wants the WA back in the House this week.

So, if she survives, he can ask again for the vote to happen. And if it does not, he will say OK it's not just May it's the whole bloody lot of you (Rees-Mogg, Soubry, Uncle Tom Cobley and all) and call a vote of no confidence in the Government.

[howsillyofme1]

I must admit I am a bit pissed off with the reaction we are seeing to this

Corbyn is not providing opposition and so he tries a smart tactic of making this about May rather than the Government because a large swathe of her party have no confidence in her and the speeches today were very negative

He has very few Parliamentary tools in his box and this is one of them but NCV can only be used sparingly and so he has chosen to use this one.

Oh, and here come all those LD and SNP and 'centrists' who have been calling for a NCV to come and slag him off and other saying that he is useless and what is the point?

He will probably lose tomorrow and then there will be screeches for another referendum - as though it is the answer to all our problems!

I can see not much hope for him, or a socialist Labour Party, coming through at the other end. I for one will say that he tried his best and no-one has still explained what he could have done differently with the cards he had to play

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Seems the SNP have secured an Emergency Debate on May's failure to bring the vote.

SNP fans busy Tweeting that this is what real opposition looks like.

Err, Labour already did it last week guys!

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Nevertheless, good for the SNP.

More pressure on and a chance for them to bring a more Scotland focused view.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

I must admit I am a bit pissed off with the reaction we are seeing to this

Corbyn is not providing opposition and so he tries a smart tactic of making this about May rather than the Government because a large swathe of her party have no confidence in her and the speeches today were very negative

He has very few Parliamentary tools in his box and this is one of them but NCV can only be used sparingly and so he has chosen to use this one.

Oh, and here come all those LD and SNP and 'centrists' who have been calling for a NCV to come and slag him off and other saying that he is useless and what is the point?

He will probably lose tomorrow and then there will be screeches for another referendum - as though it is the answer to all our problems!

I can see not much hope for him, or a socialist Labour Party, coming through at the other end. I for one will say that he tried his best and no-one has still explained what he could have done differently with the cards he had to play

Yes folk saying this is pointless and what we really need is a Peoples Vote

[howsillyofme1]

and to ask them the same question 'what is the point?'

There is no point to any of these opposition motions apart from putting pressure on the PM and Government - there is very little any opposition can do in the face of a majority and the DUP are giving her that, whilst all the empty vessels such as Soubry will back her but then ask the opposition to do 'something'!

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Nicholas Watt
‏I understand government will not allocate time for Jeremy Corbyn motion of no confidence in Theresa May. ‘We are not playing silly games’. If Labour escalate to no confidence motion in govt then time woild (sic.) be allocated because that would come under Fixed Term Parliaments Act

[Willow904]

Nicholas Watt
‏I understand government will not allocate time for Jeremy Corbyn motion of no confidence in Theresa May. ‘We are not playing silly games’. If Labour escalate to no confidence motion in govt then time woild (sic.) be allocated because that would come under Fixed Term Parliaments Act

Was the earlier tweet I posted incorrect or have they changed their minds?

Everything's getting a bit confusing.

Originally I kind of got the the idea of threatening May with a vote of no confidence in her, because she had pulled the vote and was tight-lipped about when it would come back, even though I thought she would just ignore it, but then she gave a date in Jan and Labour started claiming this as a victory. Only then Corbyn tabled the vote anyway and seemed to imply if she ducked it he would escalate to a no confidence vote. Was this planned? Or adhoc? Starmer was previously hinting Labour needed to move the no confidence vote soon. May will be working hard to get various factions, including the DUP, back on side during the breathing space she's given herself. Is this a proper plan or is it as haphazard as it looks?

[Willow904]

David Clegg
@davieclegg
Understand SNP lodging amendment to Labour motion changing the vote of no confidence from being one in the Prime Minister to one in the Government.
9:04 PM · Dec 17, 2018 · Twitter for iPhone

Not sure how accurate any of these tweets are, mind, but I'll leave it here anyway.

[Willow904]

Ah. Looks to be legit:

Laura Kuenssberg
Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Other opposition parties have just put down amendment to Corbyn’s motion which would make it a full blown proper confidence motion

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[tinyclanger2]

Merry Cracemas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ntegration" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Meanwhile, the country burned. And Westminster prepared to go on holiday for two weeks.

[tinyclanger2]

Faisal Islam
✔
@faisalislam
Whilst reporting that some pro Brexit campaigners in yellow jackets were shouting misogynist stuff at Kay and that I was “not British” and “a rapist” ... well done all who helped create this situation. Good job.

[Willow904]

Thinking about it, maybe the attempted amendment is why the government changed its mind about giving the vote parliamentary time.

Time for bed I think!

Night all.

[tinyclanger2]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 87981.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The government’s long-expected post-Brexit immigration plan will have no reference to the Conservative manifesto pledge to reduce net migration down to the “tens of thousands”.

Whitehall sources confirmed to The Independent that the target long-championed by Theresa May as home secretary and prime minister does not appear anywhere in the document.

The target will still exist as a manifesto pledge until the next election at least, but its absence is a clear sign policy has now moved away from the numbers-based approach backed by Ms May.

[refitman]

Faisal Islam
✔
@faisalislam
Whilst reporting that some pro Brexit campaigners in yellow jackets were shouting misogynist stuff at Kay and that I was “not British” and “a rapist” ... well done all who helped create this situation. Good job.

Good reply to that:

Tom Pride
‏ @ThomasPride
5h5 hours ago

Tom Pride Retweeted Faisal Islam

Disgusting.
But "all who helped create this situation" being mostly your fellow journalists Faisal.
It's time decent journalists called out their colleagues who have been fomenting hatred in the pages of the national press for decades.

[citizenJA]

I don't like the confused news reports in media on the day's political proceedings. It's scary.

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA