Monday 17 December 2018
Posted: Mon 17 Dec, 2018 6:56 am
Morning all
Who or what exactly are these millions she refers to?https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 85916.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
“Another vote which would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics, because it would say to millions who trusted in democracy, that our democracy does not deliver.
We've likely had this alreadyFull speech: Sir Ivan Rogers on Brexit
Published: December 13, 2018
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13 ... on-brexit/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"It is, in the end, the total absence of a serious realistic plan for the process of Brexit as well as a serious coherent conception of a post Brexit destination, which has delivered this denouement to stage 1 of what will be, whether Brexit proponents like it or not, a much longer process.
For the next stage, we need much less self-absorption, a vastly clearer, less self-deceiving understanding of the incentives on the other side of the table, and a less passive approach to the construction of the process. We need serious substance not plausible bullshit.
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...I thought the days when we had persuaded ourselves that we would win a tournament if we could just exhibit more “passion” than the opponents had gone. It really helps, in a negotiation, actually to know what you are doing and be stone cold sober about the real interests of the other players."
- Sir Ivan Rogers
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13 ... on-brexit/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"My real objection is to the style of argument espoused both by the pro “no deal” Right and by Downing Street which says that no other model but their own is a potentially legitimate interpretation of the Will of the People – which evidently only they can properly discern."
-Sir Ivan Rogers
That sounds tastyHindleA wrote:Managed to leave the eighth Toffee Crisp until later.I am in awe of my self control.
good point"For all the imperfections of the Single Market, services trade between Member States is, in many sectors, freer than it is between the federal states of the US, or the states in Canada. The US Government is unable, even if it were willing, to deliver on commitments in many areas in international negotiations, just as it cannot bind its states on government procurement, on which many federal states are as protectionist as it gets."
-Ivan Rogers
tinyclanger2 wrote:May on trust:
Who or what exactly are these millions she refers to?https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 85916.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
“Another vote which would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics, because it would say to millions who trusted in democracy, that our democracy does not deliver.
"You can’t possibly run one of the largest and most complex trade negotiations on the planet, and leave most supposed insiders, let alone a much wider public, in the dark about the extremely difficult choices we shall face.
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...real honesty with the public is the best – the only – policy if we are to get to the other side of Brexit with a healthy democracy, a reasonably unified country and a healthy economy.
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...we got sophistry, evasions, euphemisms and sometimes straight denials at home, whilst in the EU, the PM and senior Ministers several times appeared to be backsliding on clear commitments as soon as they saw draft legal texts giving effect to agreements they had struck...
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...the whole conduct of the negotiation has further burned through trust in the political class."
- Rogers
Are they the honeycomb ones? I could never have left the eighth of them.HindleA wrote:Managed to leave the eighth Toffee Crisp until later.I am in awe of my self control.
Online fashion store Asos has rocked the UK retail sector by issuing a profits warning, and warning that trading has taken a nasty plunge in the run-up to Christmas.
City traders are predicting that Asos’s shares will tumble by 15% to 20% when trading begins, in under half an hour.
Shares in Asos have plunged by 35% at the start of trading in London.
I'm sincerely sorryadam wrote:Are they the honeycomb ones? I could never have left the eighth of them.HindleA wrote:Managed to leave the eighth Toffee Crisp until later.I am in awe of my self control.
More tales of the unexpected...
Online fashion store Asos has rocked the UK retail sector by issuing a profits warning, and warning that trading has taken a nasty plunge in the run-up to Christmas.City traders are predicting that Asos’s shares will tumble by 15% to 20% when trading begins, in under half an hour.Shares in Asos have plunged by 35% at the start of trading in London.
Andrew Adonis
This isn’t happening. Norway Plus is even worse than Mrs May’s deal & won’t fly. The only sensible idea out there now Nicky is a people’s vote with an option to Remain@PaulfrYorkshireNicky Morgan MP
To be clear I do not think a second referendum is a sensible idea at all and it is not what I’m working for - the consensus that needs to be built in Parliament can only be around Norway Plus - and proper cross party discussions should open sooner rather than later
Replying to @Andrew_Adonis
But at least @NickyMorgan01 is exploring the idea of consensus.
She deserves a hearing.
Are we sure repeated referendums between extreme positions will get us out of this mess?
Andrew Adonis
Remain is hardly an ‘extreme position’
@PaulfrYorkshire
Remain without reform is by definition an extreme position in this debate.
It may not feel so to you and me, but we should try and understand how it looks to those who don't have a sense of belonging in the EU.
I take the point about Norway - I think there is a small level of relevance here because we're talking about something bespoke rather than something that's already there which makes it more complicated but you have a very good point. I suppose that it it was a question of joining then we'd effectively have some kind of 'bespoke' status decided in those negotiations anyway.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:@adam
I think there is some deliberate confusion in the media about Norway plus. I think when Nicky Morgan uses it she means to have our own agreement that looks something like a Norway arrangement. The Norway won't let us argument is (and now I'm sounding confrontational) a bit facile!
So, what about my proposal of an interim Norway Plus (that doesn't mean being in the same organisation as Norway) for a few years to be followed by a "Peoples Vote" to leave properly or stay in whatever the EU has become? I think a lot of the objections to Norway plus would be easier to deal with if it were time limited (cf. backstop), but it would avoid us going straight to a potentially damaging second referendum now.
For me, something has to shift. Remain as a status quo we voted to leave over two years ago just doesn't feel like a winning team to me.... Which is why my other proposal is May's Deal vs. Remain & Reform on the referendum, with some clearly defined reforms we hope to achieve and that appear achievable.
PaulPaulfromYorkshire wrote:@adam
I think there is some deliberate confusion in the media about Norway plus. I think when Nicky Morgan uses it she means to have our own agreement that looks something like a Norway arrangement. The Norway won't let us argument is (and now I'm sounding confrontational) a bit facile!
So, what about my proposal of an interim Norway Plus (that doesn't mean being in the same organisation as Norway) for a few years to be followed by a "Peoples Vote" to leave properly or stay in whatever the EU has become? I think a lot of the objections to Norway plus would be easier to deal with if it were time limited (cf. backstop), but it would avoid us going straight to a potentially damaging second referendum now.
For me, something has to shift. Remain as a status quo we voted to leave over two years ago just doesn't feel like a winning team to me.... Which is why my other proposal is May's Deal vs. Remain & Reform on the referendum, with some clearly defined reforms we hope to achieve and that appear achievable.
Thanks.adam wrote:I take the point about Norway - I think there is a small level of relevance here because we're talking about something bespoke rather than something that's already there which makes it more complicated but you have a very good point. I suppose that it it was a question of joining then we'd effectively have some kind of 'bespoke' status decided in those negotiations anyway.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:@adam
I think there is some deliberate confusion in the media about Norway plus. I think when Nicky Morgan uses it she means to have our own agreement that looks something like a Norway arrangement. The Norway won't let us argument is (and now I'm sounding confrontational) a bit facile!
So, what about my proposal of an interim Norway Plus (that doesn't mean being in the same organisation as Norway) for a few years to be followed by a "Peoples Vote" to leave properly or stay in whatever the EU has become? I think a lot of the objections to Norway plus would be easier to deal with if it were time limited (cf. backstop), but it would avoid us going straight to a potentially damaging second referendum now.
For me, something has to shift. Remain as a status quo we voted to leave over two years ago just doesn't feel like a winning team to me.... Which is why my other proposal is May's Deal vs. Remain & Reform on the referendum, with some clearly defined reforms we hope to achieve and that appear achievable.
The issue with remain and reform is that this means leaving and waiting, and I don't believe - partly just generally but specifically because of how the UK government have behaved for the last year or two - that a semi-detached or detached UK are going to get a seat at the table dealing with these reforms. I am generalising now, I know, and it's possible that if we'd announced this as the big idea 18 months ago it might have been very different, but it feels very much like if we start saying to the EU states 'we're leaving but we need to be part of the discussions about what you could now do to make us stay' they will say 'No' and if we say 'we're leaving but please can you consider these things amongst yourselves because they might make us stay' they will say 'No'.
Just looked back. You are right...apologiesgilsey wrote:@hsom
Once we're in transition the A50 period is over and revocation off the table, sadly.
We'd have to apply to rejoin.
I'm only surprised that it's taken the ONS this long to realise the implications of a rising %age likely to be written off.A change in how student loans are recorded in the public finances will add £12bn to the deficit, after an Office for National Statistics ruling.
The amount expected not to be repaid, which could be 45% of lending, will now be reported as public spending.
Student lending will now significantly push up the deficit - providing an incentive to cut tuition fees.
The government said the change would be taken into account by the tuition fees review, due to report early next year.
Labour's shadow education secretary, Angela Rayner, said the ruling proved that the "student loans system is a fiscal illusion which flatters the government's record".
The decision by the statistics agency tackles an anomaly in which the cost of lending to students has been missing from the public finances.
Haha.AnatolyKasparov wrote:You can say that again, howsilly
Sortedhowsillyofme1 wrote:Haha.AnatolyKasparov wrote:You can say that again, howsilly
On mobile and can't find how to delete. If PfY or Dan would be so kind
If May failed to negotiate a deal, I believe legislation passed in the withdrawal act compelled her to make a statement to the house by 21 Jan 2019. If she did negotiate a deal but it was rejected by parliament she had 21 days to make a statement to the house and the recent Grieve amendment meant parliament would then have a say.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Sorry I'll stop at some point, but the other thing is that May must be made to bring the Meaningful Vote back to the House.
The Benn amendment was all set to pass that would have outlawed No Deal. That surely would have been a prize worth winning and at least rule out one scenario?
I think that is what Yvette Cooper was trying to clarify, but I don't know how far she got!Willow904 wrote:If May failed to negotiate a deal, I believe legislation passed in the withdrawal act compelled her to make a statement to the house by 21 Jan 2019. If she did negotiate a deal but it was rejected by parliament she had 21 days to make a statement to the house and the recent Grieve amendment meant parliament would then have a say.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Sorry I'll stop at some point, but the other thing is that May must be made to bring the Meaningful Vote back to the House.
The Benn amendment was all set to pass that would have outlawed No Deal. That surely would have been a prize worth winning and at least rule out one scenario?
However, what I'm not sure of is what happens if she has a deal but doesn't present it to the house. Does by 21 Jan still stand? Or can she delay beyond? Will the Grieve amendment still apply if/when it finally does come to the house or will the Grieve amendment need to be passed again along with new schedules?
What is clear is that this delay is absolutely unacceptable. I shall be very disappointed if Parliament allows May to go into Christmas recess without holding a vote on the withdrawal agreement. The negotiation has ended, May has a deal, she needs to present her deal to parliament, no excuses. If she doesn't and parliament fails to find a way to hold her to account, it does not bode well for the future of our representative democracy.
Well, when you put it like *that* one can see the problemtinyclanger2 wrote:The millions who allegedly trust in our democracy I mean.
But we have a deal!!!!Downing Street said there would be an announcement “shortly” about how an extra £2bn will be allocated for no-deal Brexit planning
Interesting twitter thread to sit alongside the above about "no deal" preparations. May raises the spectre of "no deal" while slowly working on her backbenchers to accept the deal. Her deal or no deal remains the plan and delay allows her more time to sell it. Of course, she's had a whole year to sell it, because the bare bones were essentially already agreed, but I guess it's only now she's faced off a leadership challenge she can confidently push her real deal instead of pretending she's signed up to nothing of the sort to prevent being ousted by the hard Brexiteers.@HenryNewman
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I understand why some are pushing an indicative vote but I think it's misguided & messy
The best thing is head off for a Christmas break & encourage MPs to spend the time thinking carefully
Meanwhile reports of the death of May's deal are greatly exaggerated
A thread
I wouldn't call Labour's Brexit policy laughable, but I do struggle to see how it would produce something substantively different to May's deal at this point of the process. Which means Labour are really objecting to May rather than her actual deal. Which is fair enough and I get why they don't want to help her get it through parliament, but if by rejecting it we end up crashing out with no deal, I feel it's harder to justify that when the withdrawal deal itself isn't really the issue but the future relationship. Which is another way of saying I don't really understand why anyone other than those who want to stop Brexit completely or those who don't care about the damage they do to the country, would reject this deal. The deal secures transition but sets nothing in stone. Even if May negotiates a horrible future relationship it should still be possible to stop or reverse it. The damage from crashing out will be harder to repair, imo. I know that we could face another cliff edge at the end of transition but two years is a long time in which to wilfully ignore reality. The DUP are already having to face up to what the Brexit they campaigned for will actually mean for NI rather than what they would like it to mean.@HenryNewman
2h2 hours ago
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Labour's laughable Brexit policy if it has any coherence at all is still premised on accepting a backstop - said @JennyChapman
And if you're going to do that you are basically looking at something very close to May's deal with extra promises in the Political Declaration
I'm not sure I see the point.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:So, Labour's next ploy.
Ask May to bring the WA back to the House immediately or they will table a no confidence vote in her.
It's less thantwo years is a long time in which to wilfully ignore reality
Operation "wear them down" commences.May says MPs will vote on Brexit deal in week beginning Monday 14 January
Just thought I'd try optimism for a changegilsey wrote:It's less than twice what we've had already.two years is a long time in which to wilfully ignore reality
This morning I had the TV on for a few short periods and I saw John Whittingdale on Sky, Andrew Bridgen on BBC24 and Tim Martin on (I think) BBC2, all still wilfully ignoring reality.
The "point" is only symbolic admittedly, but if this is passed with the help of unhappy DUP and Tory MPs its quite a powerful symbolism.Willow904 wrote:I'm not sure I see the point.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:So, Labour's next ploy.
Ask May to bring the WA back to the House immediately or they will table a no confidence vote in her.
She's been a lame duck PM since she lost her majority. If she hasn't been humiliated into resignation by her own backbenchers I can't see her being overly bothered by the opposition's poor opinion of her.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, congratulated May on winning the no confidence vote last week. He says she know how has his confidence. (That is not what he said the morning after, when he told the Today programme that, even though she won, she should still resign.) He says a second referendum would be a “losers’ vote”, and would encourage the Scottish nationalists to hold a second independence referendum.
May agrees, and thanks him for his supportive comment.
Corbyn announces he is tabling a motion of no confidence in Theresa May personally
The statement is now over. Jeremy Corbyn rises to make a point of order. He says putting off the vote until January is unacceptable. He says he will table a motion saying the House has no confidence in the PM because of May’s failure to hold a meaningful vote immediately.