FlyTheNest

Morning all.

So it seems there will be no vote of no confidence. Yet.

Meanwhile the SNP have secured an Emergency Debate.

Though as I said last night, someone needs to tell their members that Labour had a similar one last week, so crowing about it isn't a good look

Good Morning!

Morning.

With a vote on the deal due the week beginning 14 Jan, even if Labour moved a vote of no confidence immediately May loses the vote and managed to win it, with 14 days for the government to try to win a confidence vote and then 6 weeks for a General Election campaign, we're going to have, what, one or two weeks once a new government is formed before we leave the EU at the end of March. With no time to reverse the withdrawal bill we'll be facing crashing out with no deal whoever wins the election.

There was a hint yesterday that if May ducked the motion of no confidence in her, Labour would escalate to a no confidence motion in the government. Starmer has said it needs to come soon. I think he's right but will it happen?

Barking

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ ... it-events/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
“I watched the Prime Minister speak yesterday in the Parliament and then watched the questions after that and I must confess the word that came to mind is a British one that I’ve heard… barking - which seemed to me to capture that particular situation.”

Justine Greening arguing May's deal needs to come before parliament before Christmas on BBC breakfast. Tory remainers no happier with the delaying tactics for the same reason, it reduces opportunities to change the direction of Brexit. Greening wants a referendum, but we're now passing the deadline for getting one underway, if you assume the EU will be reluctant to extend article 50 much past the next EU parliament elections in May.

Willow904 wrote:Morning.

With a vote on the deal due the week beginning 14 Jan, even if Labour moved a vote of no confidence immediately May loses the vote and managed to win it, with 14 days for the government to try to win a confidence vote and then 6 weeks for a General Election campaign, we're going to have, what, one or two weeks once a new government is formed before we leave the EU at the end of March. With no time to reverse the withdrawal bill we'll be facing crashing out with no deal whoever wins the election.

There was a hint yesterday that if May ducked the motion of no confidence in her, Labour would escalate to a no confidence motion in the government. Starmer has said it needs to come soon. I think he's right but will it happen?

There might not be time for a general election, but is it more likely that a lost confidence vote would result in change of leader? Theresa may won the confidence vote last week, possibly because it would have resulted in party members electing a 'brexiteer'. Tellingly, Rees Mogg is now stating his confidence in Theresa May, as losing a confidence vote in parliament would be more likely in resulting in a more friendly remain leader?

tinybgoat wrote:There might not be time for a general election, but is it more likely that a lost confidence vote would result in change of leader? Theresa may won the confidence vote last week, possibly because it would have resulted in party members electing a 'brexiteer'. Tellingly, Rees Mogg is now stating his confidence in Theresa May, as losing a confidence vote in parliament would be more likely in resulting in a more friendly remain leader?

I have no idea how accurate a picture this is, but the picture is that the tory party in the country is very much at the harder leave end of the spectrum and would be more likely to support a more extreme leave candidate. They would get a say if we got to a final choice of two decided by the parliamentary party who are probably less extreme, but that doesn't mean they would coalesce around two more moderate candidates.

In some ways it's more likely that you would get what happened last time - that the tory party are good at holding on to power and when they saw what way the weather was turning in the parliamentary vote they would collapse down to a single candidate, like last time, and not reach the vote amongst the general membership.

To be honest I think it's unlikely that May would resign, at least not in the first instance, and I think it's unlikely that she would lose a confidence vote unless her deal got through, when the DUP would be likely to abandon her, and even then it might be close and rebelling Labour MPs could make the difference. By convention if a confidence vote was tied Bercow would be obliged to support the government, which might be interesting.

It's worth adding that if the ERG are coming in behind May (as seems possible from what Rees-Mogg has been up to yesterday and this morning) that could lead to the rest of the reluctant tories falling in, and if that happened then all of the rest of the parties will need to be very disciplined indeed to stop this deal going through and will have to force the confidence question immediately or face a default to a no deal exit.

Great signature.
(Adam)

tinyclanger2 wrote:Great signature.
(Adam)

It is my Christmas movie of choice. Many disagree.

Excellent.

Though I can understand it's not widely seen as traditionally festive.

adam wrote:

tinybgoat wrote:There might not be time for a general election, but is it more likely that a lost confidence vote would result in change of leader? Theresa may won the confidence vote last week, possibly because it would have resulted in party members electing a 'brexiteer'. Tellingly, Rees Mogg is now stating his confidence in Theresa May, as losing a confidence vote in parliament would be more likely in resulting in a more friendly remain leader?

I have no idea how accurate a picture this is, but the picture is that the tory party in the country is very much at the harder leave end of the spectrum and would be more likely to support a more extreme leave candidate. They would get a say if we got to a final choice of two decided by the parliamentary party who are probably less extreme, but that doesn't mean they would coalesce around two more moderate candidates.

In some ways it's more likely that you would get what happened last time - that the tory party are good at holding on to power and when they saw what way the weather was turning in the parliamentary vote they would collapse down to a single candidate, like last time, and not reach the vote amongst the general membership.

To be honest I think it's unlikely that May would resign, at least not in the first instance, and I think it's unlikely that she would lose a confidence vote unless her deal got through, when the DUP would be likely to abandon her, and even then it might be close and rebelling Labour MPs could make the difference. By convention if a confidence vote was tied Bercow would be obliged to support the government, which might be interesting.

Thanks, I was coming from angle that having lost confidence vote, a government could be formed with someone other than Theresa May as pm, without party membership being involved.
Just checked & apparently Conservative rules say that pm has to be party leader, so it wouldn't be possible (unless a coalition)

Well despite our absolute awfulness this season, I didn't see that coming.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well despite our absolute awfulness this season, I didn't see that coming.

The performance against Liverpool was dreadful. I never thought I would see Man U play so badly.

P.S. Does Mrs May know the Glazers? This is the perfect distractor isn't it?

I'm seeing political parallels in other respects, actually.

Few people saw this coming right now, even though almost everybody agreed things just couldn't go on as they were.

Could the blow that finally unseats our PM also come as a "surprise" to most people?

From the G:

Tom Newton Dunn in the Sun says Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, is demanding a two-year transition period, as a “glidepath” to a no-deal Brexit.
"Ms Mordaunt has already given her private backing to a Brexiteer plan to agree a transition of around two years with the EU in exchange for £20bn - half the current divorce bill - and then leave on WTO terms."

If this is the kind of unicorn thinking still persisting within the Tory party we're completely screwed.

Merry TWOTPmas

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-5822919" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A caller to James O’Brien’s radio show has claimed he voted for Leave so that he can continue to use three-pin plugs in the UK.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 88336.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Government figures also show that every version of Brexit will make us worse off.

So the best course of action is obviously to go for the worst of all of those versions.

And the frenzy of the last 24 hours hasn't really altered much IMO. The best time to go for a VONC is after May's deal has been voted down in the "meaningful vote".

She was forced to promise a date for that in the Commons (which didn't happen the previous time) yesterday.

Which means she can be held in contempt of parliament if she dodges it again.

Tick-tock.......

AnatolyKasparov wrote:And the frenzy of the last 24 hours hasn't really altered much IMO. The best time to go for a VONC is after May's deal has been voted down in the "meaningful vote".

She was forced to promise a date for that in the Commons (which didn't happen the previous time) yesterday.

Which means she can be held in contempt of parliament if she dodges it again.

Tick-tock.......

Maybe she should avoid going to Liverpool then

Steven Swinford
✔
@Steven_Swinford
This was undoubtedly be THE quote of today's Cabinet.

David Gauke described a managed no-deal as a 'unicorn that needs to be slaughtered'.

Poor unicorns...

tinyclanger2 wrote:Steven Swinford
✔
@Steven_Swinford
This was undoubtedly be THE quote of today's Cabinet.

David Gauke described a managed no-deal as a 'unicorn that needs to be slaughtered'.

Poor unicorns...

Though on this at least, he's not wrong.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:And the frenzy of the last 24 hours hasn't really altered much IMO. The best time to go for a VONC is after May's deal has been voted down in the "meaningful vote".

She was forced to promise a date for that in the Commons (which didn't happen the previous time) yesterday.

Which means she can be held in contempt of parliament if she dodges it again.

Tick-tock.......

Yet the result is unlikely to be any different then than now. The DUP are opposed to May's deal, with the threat to withdraw support being if it goes through. If it gets voted down they are likely to favour other options than a GE. They are surely likely to wait the 21 days May will have to make a statement to the house to see what options may command a majority. They may even be willing to see the clock tick down and leave with no deal.

At this point it just feels like Labour are merely postponing the moment they have to admit that forcing a GE was always far more of a long shot than they've been making it seem.

Edited to add I'm uncertain why every one is talking about a no confidence vote as if you can only have one. The government postponing the vote on the deal definitely deserves one, but if it's lost, the government losing a vote on the deal in January would surely deserve them another one.

Willow904 wrote:snipEdited to add I'm uncertain why every one is talking about a no confidence vote as if you can only have one. The government postponing the vote on the deal definitely deserves one, but if it's lost, the government losing a vote on the deal in January would surely deserve them another one.

I agree - it's like people are conflating the conservative party's procedures with parliament's.

If May loses her 'deal' vote then the DUP are likely to stick with her - I don't think they are troubled by the thought of the end of the GFA and a hard border on the island of Ireland. If she wins it they are likely to abandon her and a no confidence win becomes likely, but they will vote against her deal so she needs all of her party plus about half a dozen from the opposition benches to get that far. Chatter today suggests a move in that direction from her party but that wouldn't be enough.

So Labour need to help the government get its deal though parliament if they are to ever be in a position to possibly win a no confidence vote in the government?

Willow904 wrote:So Labour need to help the government get its deal though parliament if they are to ever be in a position to possibly win a no confidence vote in the government?

I know, it's absurd. The DUP say that if the deal passes, she loses the confidence and supply arrangement and so loses her majority. Doesn't mean she would necessarily lose a confidence vote - they could abstain instead of voting against.

As Anatoly says, it may well be something completely different that tips the balance.

Today's lead Daily Mash story

Afternoon

Well those who say there is 'no opposition' are shown to be mistaken as Corbyn has tried every trick in the book to get May out. What people mean by 'no opposition' actually means 'does not do what I want him to do'

The current criticism is clearly meant to force him to another referendum. This is despite there being nothing concrete behind that proposal yet. No parliamentary majority for it even if Corbyn went for it and is being used by other people to enable something else entirely

The next target will be ruling out no deal for which there is probably a majority. The Benn amendment is going to be critical but until May brings the vote we will not know

I am disappointed that not a few Remainers have succumbed to the same intellectual feebleness they so often criticise the Brexiteers of - including the simple act of adding up!

And to add

There is no limit on number of NCV and Thatcher took a few to get Callaghan.

In those days though no TV or radio in commons so less impact. I cannot see any opposition having more than one go

His attempt to sniff out any rebels was a good idea although may not work as well as hoped it does save the main vote for another day if needed.

Doubt there is much confidence in Labour they are going to win that way so they will probably be developing another plan for after WA vote.

I cannot believe the criticism Labour is getting from a weak position due to our Parliamentary constraints and for depending on snakes like Soubry or DUP dinosaurs. In fat I can believe it actually!

howsillyofme1 wrote:Afternoon

Well those who say there is 'no opposition' are shown to be mistaken as Corbyn has tried every trick in the book to get May out. What people mean by 'no opposition' actually means 'does not do what I want him to do'

The current criticism is clearly meant to force him to another referendum. This is despite there being nothing concrete behind that proposal yet. No parliamentary majority for it even if Corbyn went for it and is being used by other people to enable something else entirely

The next target will be ruling out no deal for which there is probably a majority. The Benn amendment is going to be critical but until May brings the vote we will not know

I am disappointed that not a few Remainers have succumbed to the same intellectual feebleness they so often criticise the Brexiteers of - including the simple act of adding up!

To be charitable, I wonder if a lot of this "feebleness" is genuine passion being whipped up by less principled operators in the background.

I've seen it locally in different contexts. Well meaning local folk with heartfelt concerns about the proliferation of wind farms on our hills and how this is changing the environment can lead very effective campaigns. Then you find out they are being bankrolled by the likes of Bernard Ingham, who was a serious nuclear lobbyist. Their mistake was not to ask questions of Ingham, but when you have a cause you really believe in and someone with resource.....

Bringing it back to the Peoples Vote, I think there are people who have genuinely been persuaded by the fairly obvious Machiavellian figures operating here that if only Corbyn asked for a Referendum there would be one.

adam wrote:

Willow904 wrote:So Labour need to help the government get its deal though parliament if they are to ever be in a position to possibly win a no confidence vote in the government?

I know, it's absurd. The DUP say that if the deal passes, she loses the confidence and supply arrangement and so loses her majority. Doesn't mean she would necessarily lose a confidence vote - they could abstain instead of voting against.

Perhaps they have their fingers crossed and this is a truly cunning plan?

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Today's lead Daily Mash story

I can hear him as I read!

As far as I can tell these are the things that could realistically happen.

1) We leave without a deal
2) We leave with May's deal as it is
3) We leave with May's deal with a tweak to the future declaration within EU red lines
4) The government requests an extension to article 50

Everything else gets very complicated.

a) Not leaving involves reversing the Withdrawal Act as well as revoking article 50 which may also need a vote in parliament - all by March 29. It can be done but not at the last minute.

b) A referendum will also need acts of parliament plus an article 50 extension which may be granted up to when the new EU parliament sits (beg July?). It might be doable but I think we'd need to start now.

c) Renegotiating the withdrawal agreement (a very popular choice with MPs as far as I can tell) is probably the most complicated option, with it most likely requiring a change of government in order to convince the EU to re-open negotiations and an extension of article 50 to allow adequate time. Again that would probably need to start now, so there's time for a GE and then to request an article 50 extension and get the leave date changed in the Withdrawal Act. I'm not really convinced this option is doable as the EU is unlikely to agree, but even if it's doable now, as with a referendum, it seems unlikely it will be doable come Feb.

At the moment there appears to be vocal MP support for two complicated not very doable things - renegotiation and further referendum - and for one doable thing - no deal. As time passes the first two will become increasingly untenable while no deal remains a completely realistic, if undesirable, outcome. A responsible house would avoid the latter by coming together on one of the three remaining realistic options. May is banking on this being her deal and she may well win out because, hopeless and horrendous as she is, she continues to hold the best cards. As howsillyofme has previously observed, even with a change to a Labour government we could still end up leaving the EU with May's deal. And that is why the DUP are unlikely to support a no confidence vote this side of March 2019.

Good-afternoon, everyone

One from the newfeed on the graun that should be the main headline on every newspaper just now. Even the ones in manchester london.

The spokesman refused to say whether businesses with contingency plans that included moving abroad in the event of a no-deal would be encouraged to go that far. He said the government was advising firms to implement their own no-deal contingency plans “as they judge necessary”.

The government is telling companies 'if your contingency planning involves leaving the country, you should be planning to leave now'.

this is a time of prayer and profanity

Afternoon all.

I think of all the Trump stories out there, this might be the most pitiful.

Trump agrees to shut down his charity amid allegations that he used it for personal and political benefit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... 0dca4ebef9

The Post’s reporting showed that, for years, Trump appeared to treat the foundation — which was, by law, an independent entity — as a checkbook for gifts that bolstered his interests.

The largest donation in the foundation’s history — a $264,231 gift to the Central Park Conservancy in 1989 — appeared to benefit Trump’s business: It paid to restore a fountain outside Trump’s Plaza Hotel. The smallest, a $7 foundation gift to the Boy Scouts that same year, appeared to benefit Trump’s family. It matched the amount required to enroll a boy in the Scouts the year that his son Donald Trump Jr. was 11.

I'd like some sane, responsible and helpful representation from governments' leadership, please

I'll be back after while

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46608952" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Brexit: Theresa May to hold a series of MPs' votes on options"

The prime minister does not believe any of the factions criticising her plan have enough support to get their own version of Brexit through Parliament.
By allowing them to put forward their proposals and vote on them, she is hoping they will be defeated and her plan will emerge by a process of elimination as the best and only alternative to leaving without a deal.

Well, I don't see any way at all how that "cunning plan" could possibly go wrong.......

By allowing them to put forward their proposals and vote on them, she is hoping they will be defeated and her plan will emerge by a process of elimination as the best and only alternative to leaving without a deal.

Then we have to negotiate a trade agreement, where all possibilities acceptable to the tory party will mean the NI backstop applies, which is unacceptable to the tory party.

Indefinite transition with continued uncertainty, the 'best' we can hope for.

adam wrote: The government is telling companies 'if your contingency planning involves leaving the country, you should be planning to leave now'.

The party of business.

I'm here again.
Hello, PorFavor!

citizenJA wrote:this is a time of prayer and profanity

For me
I'm speaking for myself

I don’t think anyone is going to forget how long MPs’ holidays are.
---
They got away with it for so long, through a combination of calling it “recess”, which sounds both traditional and important, and never seeming to do anything that couldn’t wait. Now they have embarked upon something that really won’t wait, convention is dead and all precedent has been thrown to the wolves, except for the one that decrees they need more downtime than a person working nights on an oil rig.

- Zoe Williams

I hope you're right, Williams.

"Despair hangs like a choking smog in Westminster."
- John Crace

PTO