Wednesday 19th December 2018

Post by **refitman** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 7:04 am

Morning all.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 7:04 am

Morning.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 7:13 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... d-migrants" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
White paper to set out tough UK immigration regime post-Brexit
Minimum salary threshold of £30k-a-year will also apply to migrants from the EU27

Median salary UK 2018 - 29,588 GBP

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 8:42 am

Crook nee snail rumbled justifying £30,000 threshold (8,5).

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 8:53 am

Good morfternoon.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 9:03 am

Morning all.

Nick Cohen
‏

@NickCohen4
Follow Follow @NickCohen4
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Replying to @PhillipReeves
It was always there. Oswald Mosley started out in Labour. But Corbyn has supercharged it and vastly expanded it. Indeed he's made mass antisemitism inevitable. If you think he's a secular saint, you must dismiss the [true] accusations against him as a Jewish conspiracy

Hmm...now why would Nick Cohen forget that Moseley "started out"as a Tory MP, then went Independent, then over to Labour? This is really basic history.

Let me see now...nope, can't quite see what he's driving at...

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 9:10 am

tinyclanger2 wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... d-migrants" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
White paper to set out tough UK immigration regime post-Brexit
Minimum salary threshold of £30k-a-year will also apply to migrants from the EU27
Median salary UK 2018 - 29,588 GBP

Presumably this is intentional?
Previous suggested figure was £34,000 which was median for skilled workers, web search shows New Zealand sets equivalent threshold at median income.
So there's probably a good reason why.
(brain is telling me that setting it at median will minimise effect on the median, but don't trust it)

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 10:36 am

Hmmm. Depends on what the current salary pattern of EU27 migrants looks like and what the effects of the ban is on wages.

Average post-doc salary in the UK seems to be around 35k

This is interesting from 2016:

https://www.graduate-jobs.com/gco/Bookl ... laries.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
According to the latest High Fliers report, The Graduate Market in 2016, the median starting salary for UK graduates in 2016 is £30,000. However, graduate-jobs.com estimates the average starting salary for graduates is £19,000 - £22,000.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 10:46 am

Universities watchdog threatens fines over grade inflation
Proportion of degrees that are first class rose from 16% to 27% in six years, OfS finds
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... -inflation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 10:48 am

tinyclanger2 wrote:Hmmm. Depends on what the current salary pattern of EU27 migrants looks like and what the effects of the ban is on wages.

Average post-doc salary in the UK seems to be around 35k

This is interesting from 2016:
https://www.graduate-jobs.com/gco/Bookl ... laries.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
According to the latest High Fliers report, The Graduate Market in 2016, the median starting salary for UK graduates in 2016 is £30,000. However, graduate-jobs.com estimates the average starting salary for graduates is £19,000 - £22,000.

I'm pretty sure it's the lower number - the higher one is a little higher than the one I found for 'graduates on high-flier graduate employment schemes' so sounds reasonable for that fairly small subgroup.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 10:49 am

It is worth recalling exactly how far away we now are from what was once blithely predicted about the “easiest trade deal in history”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ed ... 89671.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

isn't it.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 10:54 am

So basically we're saying no graduates welcome. From anywhere.
Except the few who might take up a some of handful of high flying graduate fast-track schemes.

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 11:22 am

WTO - The Brexiteers’ idea of how WTO rules would work is pure fantasy

Good piece - the extremist fail to acknowledge that historically we only became fans of free trade once we'd used military and imperial dominance and protectionism to put ourselves at the head of the field (see also 'How companies rise by breaking copyright law and then seek to maintain dominance by relying on it')

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 11:58 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Nick Cohen
‏

@NickCohen4
Follow Follow @NickCohen4
More
Replying to @PhillipReeves
It was always there. Oswald Mosley started out in Labour. But Corbyn has supercharged it and vastly expanded it. Indeed he's made mass antisemitism inevitable. If you think he's a secular saint, you must dismiss the [true] accusations against him as a Jewish conspiracy
Hmm...now why would Nick Cohen forget that Moseley "started out"as a Tory MP, then went Independent, then over to Labour? This is really basic history.

Let me see now...nope, can't quite see what he's driving at...

Hopefully some people have informed him of this rather unfortunate and no doubt totally innocent lapse in his political knowledge?

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 1:39 pm

As Paul said(ish) the other day, you never know what's going to come along and change things.

Post by **refitman** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 1:40 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Nick Cohen
‏

@NickCohen4
Follow Follow @NickCohen4
More
Replying to @PhillipReeves
It was always there. Oswald Mosley started out in Labour. But Corbyn has supercharged it and vastly expanded it. Indeed he's made mass antisemitism inevitable. If you think he's a secular saint, you must dismiss the [true] accusations against him as a Jewish conspiracy
Hmm...now why would Nick Cohen forget that Moseley "started out"as a Tory MP, then went Independent, then over to Labour? This is really basic history.

Let me see now...nope, can't quite see what he's driving at...
Hopefully some people have informed him of this rather unfortunate and no doubt totally innocent lapse in his political knowledge?

They hadn't...

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 1:41 pm

From the G:

Abbott says Javid cannot have it both ways; he cannot argue for an open economy, but also favour a crackdown on immigration.

She says Javid is entitled to say that Labour’s record on this was flawed. She knows, she says; she voted against it at the time.

She says the Windrush scandal showed how migrants were victimised by a hostile environment. She accepts that more than one government was to blame for this.

I usually like what Diane Abbott has to say on immigration but I'm a bit disappointed by this. It was under the Coalition that immigration laws were changed that had previously protected the Windrush generation from deportation and it was under the Coalition that rules were introduced that prevents people who have insufficient documentation from being able to work or rent a home while they are trying to sort out their status. There were some issues with some people who had left the country who had difficulties when they tried to return to the UK under the previous Labour governnent, but it is the changes under the Coalition government that created a "hostile" ( as opposed to simply bureaucratic and imperfect) environment. I feel Abbott is unnecessarily letting the Coalition government, and the Home Office under Theresa May, off the hook from creating the specific hardships and difficulties that people have been experiencing in recent years.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 1:54 pm

Even if Corbyn said "stupid woman" (and the lip reading evidence is inconclusive at best) so what?

Fake performative centrist "outrage" is my new jam.

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 1:58 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Even if Corbyn said "stupid woman" (and the lip reading evidence is inconclusive at best) so what?

Fake performative centrist "outrage" is my new jam.

I've tried to read a number of alternatives into the video and I can't see anything else there. I'm not any kind of expert at all (and of course the BBC have already got Evelyn Glennie to comment on it) but I think that's what he said, and however completely insignificant it is compared to the complete clusterfuck of the government, and however much of a dangerous idiot May is, and she is, he was still stupid to say it, on camera, on the front bench. What else would you expect the tories to do with this? It's a gift.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:03 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Even if Corbyn said "stupid woman" (and the lip reading evidence is inconclusive at best) so what?

Fake performative centrist "outrage" is my new jam.

She is a woman and I think that she is stupid. Is calling someone a woman now considered sexist\misogynistic? I think that the word "woman" being considered an insult is a step backwards for equality, rather than otherwise.

Edited - typos

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:05 pm

The claim is being made that he actually said "stupid people".

And I side more with PF on the "was it bad if he actually *did* say it" question.

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:06 pm

PorFavor wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Even if Corbyn said "stupid woman" (and the lip reading evidence is inconclusive at best) so what?

Fake performative centrist "outrage" is my new jam.
She is a woman and I think that she isstupid. Is calling someone a woman now considered sexist\misogynistic? I think that the word "woman" being considered an insult is a step backwards for equality, rather than otherwise.

The conservatives are ridiculous and absurd hypocrites who crowed with glee when Cameron told Angela Eagle to 'Calm down dear' (and he refused to apologise) and it's absurd that this is the headline when both us and the EU are saying 'we're getting ready for no deal now' but, again, it's a gift to them and what else would you expect them to do. I understand how it can be argued that he was using the word 'woman' as a perjorative term and not just as a neutral description, if you were minded to argue that, as all of the press will be.

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:13 pm

PorFavor wrote:She is a woman and I think that she is stupid.

I couldn't agree more with this, obviously.

The second syllable of Corbyn's second word is a bilabial - it's 'm' or 'p' and it's different from the first syllable. It doesn't look anything like 'people'.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:18 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Even if Corbyn said "stupid woman" (and the lip reading evidence is inconclusive at best) so what?

Fake performative centrist "outrage" is my new jam.

Sadly some people on social media are saying it's totally fine in their scramble to defend Corbyn which is a shame. It's not totally fine, it's not a very nice thing to say and it's slightly misogynist. What I hope they mean is that it's not a big deal (if he did say it, which he says he didn't). We all say things that aren't nice sometimes and put alongside the stuff Cameron used to come out with week in week out its pretty mild in the misogynist stakes as well.

Personally I'm pleased that the Tory party has developed a new found sensitivity about the language used to talk about, and to, women. I'm expecting much higher standards among their number from here on in. And long overdue it is too.

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:23 pm

Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Even if Corbyn said "stupid woman" (and the lip reading evidence is inconclusive at best) so what?

Fake performative centrist "outrage" is my new jam.
Sadly some people on social media are saying it's totally fine in their scramble to defend Corbyn which is a shame. It's not totally fine, it's not a very nice thing to say and it's slightly misogynist. What I hope they mean is that it's not a big deal (if he did say it, which he says he didn't). We all say things that aren't nice sometimes and put alongside the stuff Cameron used to come out with week in week out its pretty mild in the misogynist stakes as well.

Personally I'm pleased that the Tory party has developed a new found sensitivity about the language used to talk about, and to, women. I'm expecting much higher standards among their number from here on in. And long overdue it is too.

And I would like a pony.

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:38 pm

Last February

Philip Hammond accused of calling fellow Tory MP 'stupid woman'

Philip Hammond was last night accused of branding a fellow Conservative MP a “stupid woman”. The Chancellor appeared to make the comment about pro-Brexit campaigner Andrea Jenkyns on Wednesday after she asked Theresa May a loaded question at PMQs. The Morley and Outwood MP took aim at the Chequers plan on Brexit as she asked the Prime Minister: “At what point was it decided Brexit meant Remain?” Professional lip readers told the Sun that Mr Hammond - who was seated next to Mrs May on the frontbench - had mouthed the words “stupid woman” in response.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 2:55 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The claim is being made that he actually said "stupid people".

And I side more with PF on the "was it bad if he actually *did* say it" question.

Well she did say he could (something along the lines of) ' get as angry as he likes', in response to one of his questions ...

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 3:14 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 3:17 pm

Five local council results last week:

Ashfield DC - beginning with a Wednesday contest, which is unusual in itself but maybe not as much as the result in this instance - the localist Ashfield Independents taking this seat with over 80% of the vote despite five other candidates standing - in 2015 this single member ward (there had been major boundary changes beforehand) returned a Labour councillor with a margin of just 6 votes over the LibDems, with the Tories taking the rest of the votes with 25%. Since then the AI's swept this area in last year's Notts CC elections, after which the Labour councillor here defected to them before resigning - so whilst their win was perhaps not a surprise, the scale of it certainly was. Second place went to Labour with (incredibly) just 9%, though that was twice as much as the third placed Tory - then the UKIP splinter Democrats&Veterans beat official UKIP by 2 to 1 before in last place we had the LibDems with all of five votes, less than their tiny losing margin three years ago.

Now for the normal Thursday contests, and some slightly more "normal" results......

Haringey - Labour hold a safe ward with over half the vote - three councillors have been safely returned for them at every election since 2002, their closest challengers being a Respect candidate in 2006 which maybe tells you something of the prevailing political climate here. Their share was down some seven points since May's election, though that may be partly explainable by the circumstances of this vacancy (the resigning incumbent was Kate Osamor's son, a google will tell you more of you want to know the details) and the LibDems took advantage of this to move from 4th then to runners up now (last achieved by them in 2010) and treble their share to 27%, though they were still outpolled by Labour over 2 to 1. Greens took second in 2014 and this year, but slipped back slightly now, whilst the Tories - runners up in 2002 - dropped to just 5% in an area where they used to win in the far away 1980s.

Middlesbrough - Labour hold with approaching 60% of the vote and a double figure increase since 2015 when they won all three seats in this redrawn ward after boundary changes. Independents have provided their main challenge in this area long term, and indeed came second this time increasing their vote, but it may be of note that in 2015 UKIP came just behind them with over 20% of the vote and their absence now did not seem to greatly benefit Labour opponents - this includes the Tories who got 8%, almost unchanged on three years ago. LibDems brought up the rear with 5% after sitting the last contest out.

Harlow DC - the latest of a clutch of vacancies here saw another Labour hold with a little over half the vote, as elsewhere in this new town past results have tended to be somewhat volatile; Labour took all three seats in the 2002 all-outs and held them for a while, but the Tories were usually competitive and after a 2007 near-miss took a seat in a byelection later that year and again in 2008 - before Labour resumed winning, though UKIP only narrowly missed out come their 2014 high point. Recent results have been fairly stable though, this was a small swing back to the Tories since May and a bigger one of some 4% since 2016, but a small pro-Labour swing since yet another byelection last year and 2015 - in fact the main variation in votes has been between Tories/UKIP rather than Labour (steady in the 50-55% range) and this time round UKIP's 9% was up a few points since May but still well down on their showings in 2016 and earlier. LibDems last with 5%, actually up a bit on their previous showing here in last year's vacancy (which was their first showing since 2012)

Dumfries and Galloway - Tory hold in a division which was redrawn for the 2017 elections with just three members (rather than the more usual four) and split 1C/1Nat/1Ind, only one of the latter gaining election out of no fewer than four hopefuls. This time the Tories had a double figure increase into the mid 40s which ensured a comfortable win after transfers, whilst the SNP in second also had an eight point increase. The sole Independent hopeful now had been a councillor in one of the predecessor divisions here, indeed topping the poll in 2012 before standing down last year. But the failed to repeat their previous electoral magic now, their 15% being less than half of the combined Indy vote last year. Greens up by 3 points (maybe helped by the absence of Labour or LibDems this time) whilst UKIP got their traditional low score in Scottish contests, just over 1%.

Three contests this week to conclude the electoral year.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 3:19 pm

The Tory party says and do what they like, there's no mechanism to stop their abuse of nation and people, we aren't living in a democracy

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 3:21 pm

adam wrote:Last February

Philip Hammond accused of calling fellow Tory MP 'stupid woman'

Philip Hammond was last night accused of branding a fellow Conservative MP a “stupid woman”. The Chancellor appeared to make the comment about pro-Brexit campaigner Andrea Jenkyns on Wednesday after she asked Theresa May a loaded question at PMQs. The Morley and Outwood MP took aim at the Chequers plan on Brexit as she asked the Prime Minister: “At what point was it decided Brexit meant Remain?” Professional lip readers told the Sun that Mr Hammond - who was seated next to Mrs May on the frontbench - had mouthed the words “stupid woman” in response.

Ha ha, knew it!

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 3:26 pm

Thunder and lightning and torrential(er) rain here. It's been dark for quite a while now, too.

(Torrentialer?)

Post by **adam** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 3:30 pm

Peterborough by-election in the new year?

Unanimous guilty verdict from the jury in Fiona Onasanya MP trial that she lied and falsified information over who was driving her car when it was caught by a speed camera in Thorney.

Quote in the guardian that somebody like Farage could try to use a by-election to make a point.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 3:36 pm

Iain Duncan Smith has (thankfully) been very quiet today. Yesterday, he said he was coming over to Theresa May's side. Which is odd, since he's been talking up the benefits of a "No Deal Brexit". I'd have thought he'd have been one of the last people to be persuaded by the doom scenarios (project fear and all that). Of course, no one challenged him.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 4:07 pm

PorFavor wrote:Iain Duncan Smith has (thankfully) been very quiet today. Yesterday, he said he was coming over to Theresa May's side. Which is odd, since he's been talking up the benefits of a "No Deal Brexit". I'd have thought he'd have been one of the last people to be persuaded by the doom scenarios (project fear and all that). Of course, no one challenged him.

Yes it's a shame he does take his own quiet man epithet more seriously!

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 4:09 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Iain Duncan Smith has (thankfully) been very quiet today. Yesterday, he said he was coming over to Theresa May's side. Which is odd, since he's been talking up the benefits of a "No Deal Brexit". I'd have thought he'd have been one of the last people to be persuaded by the doom scenarios (project fear and all that). Of course, no one challenged him.
Yes it's a shame he does take his own quiet man epithet more seriously!

Well, I know what you mean . . .

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 4:11 pm

You would have thought no MP would try to pull that stunt, given the Huhne precedent. FFS!

OK how about this for a "bantz" scenario:

1) Tories win resultant by-election;
2) As happened last year, PM is encouraged by this to call a snap election (again)
3) It all goes horribly wrong (again)
4) As a result, this time Corbyn is PM?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 4:14 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:You would have thought no MP would try to pull that stunt, given the Huhne precedent. FFS!

OK how about this for a "bantz" scenario:

1) Tories win resultant by-election;
2) As happened last year, PM is encouraged by this to call a snap election (again)
3) It all goes horribly wrong (again)
4) As a result, this time Corbyn is PM?

Whenever I think of Peterborough I think of Heron's Flight.

Despite disagreements on a number of issues, I'm happy to say he is responsible for my favourite ever FTN post..

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 4:30 pm

Bercow grants emergency Commons debate on no-deal Brexit planning

John Bercow, the speaker, has just accepted a request from Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, for an emergency debate on the government’s no-deal Brexit planning.

The debate will start shortly, and run til 7pm. (Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 4:41 pm

I had the misfortune to catch Brendan O'Neill on TV last night. What to say?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 5:04 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Bercow grants emergency Commons debate on no-deal Brexit planning

John Bercow, the speaker, has just accepted a request from Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, for an emergency debate on the government’s no-deal Brexit planning.

The debate will start shortly, and run til 7pm. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Now we've officially established that article 50 can be unilaterally revoked, I think the next step is to establish the last possible date for deciding to do so as I haven't even seen any speculation on that yet. I am assuming that the Withdrawal Act would have to be repealed if we decided to halt Brexit. Does anyone have any idea how long that would take?

And how long do we have to decide on the withdrawal agreement? When is the point of no return on that? Does Brussels need to do something to ratify everything if/once the UK approves the deal? How long would that take?

Now that the vote on the deal has been postponed until January, the answer to these questions becomes more crucial. Ultimately it may become necessary to support the deal simply through a lack of time just as May intends. Despicable people depend on good people to do the right thing, precisely because good people do, in fact, do the right thing. And voting for May's deal might end up being the right thing, however wrong her actions to get us to this point may have been.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 5:08 pm

The more I think about it, I think the sexism thing today was as much about making an opening to have a go at John Bercow as it was anything else.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 6:07 pm

Here we go, I've found the answer to one of my questions:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46186191" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As for ratification on the EU side, the European Parliament says it will need six to eight weeks to complete the process. And it plans to vote on the issue in mid-March, just a couple of weeks before the UK is due to leave.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 6:12 pm

PorFavor wrote:I had the misfortune to catch Brendan O'Neill on TV last night. What to say?

I'm glad I didn't.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 7:35 pm

https://amp.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"safeguards" against your own Government.Fascistic description still retains,ignorance is no excuse

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 8:01 pm

Absolutely nothing wrong with the description stupid woman.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 8:04 pm

Quite clearly said stupid people.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 8:11 pm

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... l-13756362" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Government quietly edits no-deal Brexit preparation documents to remove the word 'unlikely'
The Government has removed the phrase "in the unlikely event of a no-deal Brexit' from dozens of technical notices

Constitutional crisis - we'd better put the kettle on.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 11:27 pm

was it something i said?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Wed 19 Dec, 2018 11:31 pm

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 90511.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The NHS has pointed out that doctors and nurses routinely earn less than a limit of £30,000, fearing such a regime could trigger a staffing crisis.

And of course PTO