FlyTheNest

Morning all.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good morfternoon.

Shred beermat track get MP defending John Bercow (8,7).

Twitter thread from David Allen Green. Looks like it could end up a pretty damning indictment of our government and media:

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David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
The faux constitutional outrage of the government supporting press and punditry this morning is quite a marvel.

Let's see what constitutional outrages they have so far not cared about.

1.

Morning all.
Busy day yesterday and wasn't out of the library until 8pm which is why I went AWOL. Sorry everyone...

So...yesterday...in a Parliamentary democracy, Parliament took back control.

Was that it?

Lots of toys being thrown out of prams - mainly, I'm surprised to learn, from people who absolutely loath the Speaker. Funny that...

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.
Busy day yesterday and wasn't out of the library until 8pm which is why I went AWOL. Sorry everyone...

So...yesterday...in a Parliamentary democracy, Parliament took back control.

Was that it?

Lots of toys being thrown out of prams - mainly, I'm surprised to learn, from people who absolutely loath the Speaker. Funny that...

Excellent

Good-morning, everyone

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

Online and brick&mortar businesses trading successfully for decades are folding
I've had recent notifications giving me bad news from one of them

@RoT / Willow

Sorry my "excellent" got misplaced.

While Roger's post is interesting and informative, my comment looks a bit odd and was in fact in reply to Willow's link to the DAG thread

I could explain my incompetence if you like.....

Yes confusion around Bercow's role. He is of course meant to be impartial on Tory vs Labour and Leave vs Remain.

However, he is in no way meant to be impartial in Parliament vs Executive!

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ghts-group" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Half spend not elderly I boringly repeat this for the obvious reason it is not an "elderly problem" no matter how many times they blame them living longer.We've never adequately accounted for independent living regardless of age.

And it's a bit more than a cup of tea.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:@RoT / Willow

Sorry my "excellent" got misplaced.

While Roger's post is interesting and informative, my comment looks a bit odd and was in fact in reply to Willow's link to the DAG thread

I could explain my incompetence if you like.....

It's an extremely good point, excellently made by David Allen Green. The government has gotten away with a lot because we are living in extraordinary times. It seems only fair that Parliament should be allowed similar leeway in its role of holding government to account.

Ultimately, the feet stamping is over Bercow allowing Parliament permission to demand the government talks to it in a timely manner in the event of what would be an urgent situation of national crisis. While rules are important and should be observed, that observation should be in the spirit of what the rules were intended to achieve and although a literal reading may suggest Grieve's amendment shouldn't be allowed, I suspect it would be difficult to argue that the intention of the rules was to prevent Parliament from insisting the government communicates with it in short order on an urgent matter.

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ghts-group

Good shot of wrinkly hands.

PorFavor wrote:

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ghts-group

Good shot of wrinkly hands.

not again
<sigh>

So Labour will table a no confidence vote when they can win one but it seems unlikely the DUP will come behind one after May's deal is voted down and Corbyn has just admitted as much today. So right now Labour doesn't seem to have much of a Brexit strategy beyond opposing May's deal. Which is pretty much a mirror image of May, who has no strategy as yet beyond trying to get her deal through.

Grieve's amendment will at least ensure something will happen by the end of next week and cards will inevitably have to be played, but right now everyone's still got their poker face on and it really is impossible to gauge what position is eventually going to command a majority in the house.

Corbyn's speech has at least made it clear that in the event of a GE, Labour's Brexit policy is not yet set. His suggestion that domestic policy can bring together those on different sides of the Brexit divide was almost charming in its naivety and rather ignores the fact that the bulk of leave voters are natural Tory supporters anyway and are therefore unlikely to be happy under a Labour government either in or out of the EU.

Edited to clarify my point above, by which I mean no amount of decent domestic policy is going to remove the need to resolve Brexit, one way or another, in a manner that is acceptable to a significant majority of the population. Something, of course, which Theresa May is even less likely to achieve.

I'm no fan of Pete North but he's summed it up very well here, credit where it's due.

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gilsey wrote:I'm no fan of Pete North but he's summed it up very well here, credit where it's due.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And of course re his very first point - THAT ISN'T WHAT THEY WERE SAYING DURING THE ACTUAL CAMPAIGN

Willow904 wrote:So Labour will table a no confidence vote when they can win one but it seems unlikely the DUP will come behind one after May's deal is voted down and Corbyn has just admitted as much today. So right now Labour doesn't seem to have much of a Brexit strategy beyond opposing May's deal. Which is pretty much a mirror image of May, who has no strategy as yet beyond trying to get her deal through.

Grieve's amendment will at least ensure something will happen by the end of next week and cards will inevitably have to be played, but right now everyone's still got their poker face on and it really is impossible to gauge what position is eventually going to command a majority in the house.

Corbyn's speech has at least made it clear that in the event of a GE, Labour's Brexit policy is not yet set. His suggestion that domestic policy can bring together those on different sides of the Brexit divide was almost charming in its naivety and rather ignores the fact that the bulk of leave voters are natural Tory supporters anyway and are therefore unlikely to be happy under a Labour government either in or out of the EU.

Edited to clarify my point above, by which I mean no amount of decent domestic policy is going to remove the need to resolve Brexit, one way or another, in a manner that is acceptable to a significant majority of the population. Something, of course, which Theresa May is even less likely to achieve.

Willow (my emphasis) I think this isn't true, certainly not here in Yorkshire where he was speaking. Many of my neighbours voted Leave who wouldn't dream of voting Tory.

Look at Wakefield itself.

2016 Referendum Leave 66%, Remain 34%
2018 GE Labour 50%, Tory 45%

Failing to act now will endanger the Corbyn project, warns Ann Pettifor.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/s ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I have got gout, people. One of the most painful things I can remember - only tooth abscesses can compare in my adult days

Has anybody else here been similarly "blessed"?

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I have got gout, people. One of the most painful things I can remember - only tooth abscesses can compare in my adult days

Has anybody else here been similarly "blessed"?

Ouch!

But no I haven't.

Went to the surgery this morning and what the doc prescribed does seem to be having some effect, thankfully.

I also think there are probably quite a lot of One Nation types who don't really care that much about Brexit, but are desperately worried about the NHS, the schools their kids and grandkids go to, libraries closing, high street and local businesses in trouble, crime who hate to see homeless on the streets and so on.

Some of those folk who would naturally vote for a "sensible" Tory offering may consider Labour or at least "abstain" in some way.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I have got gout, people. One of the most painful things I can remember - only tooth abscesses can compare in my adult days

Has anybody else here been similarly "blessed"?

I feel your pain...I get it occasionally but I've cut out red meat almost entirely so minimise the risk.

When I do have a bout it's now a bit of a puzzle as to what set it off.

Had quite a bit of wine over the holiday period - very unusual for me. Also got lots of sweeties as presents, which I ate far too quickly.

Ah well.......less of that sort of stuff will help me lose weight as well!

@AnatolyKasparov

Sorry to hear that you're in pain. Hope it goes away soon.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

Willow904 wrote:So Labour will table a no confidence vote when they can win one but it seems unlikely the DUP will come behind one after May's deal is voted down and Corbyn has just admitted as much today. So right now Labour doesn't seem to have much of a Brexit strategy beyond opposing May's deal. Which is pretty much a mirror image of May, who has no strategy as yet beyond trying to get her deal through.

Grieve's amendment will at least ensure something will happen by the end of next week and cards will inevitably have to be played, but right now everyone's still got their poker face on and it really is impossible to gauge what position is eventually going to command a majority in the house.

Corbyn's speech has at least made it clear that in the event of a GE, Labour's Brexit policy is not yet set. His suggestion that domestic policy can bring together those on different sides of the Brexit divide was almost charming in its naivety and rather ignores the fact that the bulk of leave voters are natural Tory supporters anyway and are therefore unlikely to be happy under a Labour government either in or out of the EU.

Edited to clarify my point above, by which I mean no amount of decent domestic policy is going to remove the need to resolve Brexit, one way or another, in a manner that is acceptable to a significant majority of the population. Something, of course, which Theresa May is even less likely to achieve.

Willow (my emphasis) I think this isn't true, certainly not here in Yorkshire where he was speaking. Many of my neighbours voted Leave who wouldn't dream of voting Tory.

Look at Wakefield itself.

2016 Referendum Leave 66%, Remain 34%
2018 GE Labour 50%, Tory 45%

Two main parties.

Tories split 39% remain 61% leave
Labour split 65% remain 35% leave

Leave voters are drawn to the Tories and Tories are drawn to leave because of the cultural connections between social conservatism and nationalist isolationism. Things like anti-immigrant feeling, national pride and the inward looking nature of Brexit is naturally socially conservative. But it's more than that. One of the biggest bugbears of leave supporters is the redistribution of wealth, of wealthier nations within the EU paying to support poorer nations. The impulse to leave in order to keep that money for ourselves is the exact same impulse that leads to Tories to vote for tax cuts rather than invest in services. Of course, some leave voters see the EU as wealthy nations like Germany exploiting poorer nations like Greece and the reality is probably something more complex somewhere in between but the important bit is people's perceptions and a majority of leave voters appear to resent paying for what they perceive as benefiting others. Which is why I'm doubtful a socialist domestic program will heal the cultural divide that drove the Brexit vote. If we leave under Labour it will be the wrong kind of leave for a lot of leave voters because nationwide the bulk of leave voters were Tories.

Jeremy Corbyn's lack of ambition re reforming the EU from within (ie he never talks about it) is a matter of concern to me. He should at least be mentioning it, and preparing the groundwork, in the light of the possibility of another referendum.

Finding it hard to express myself today.

What I'm trying to say is that the media theme of the leave vote being caused by austerity and neglect in some regions, although true, has been rather over emphasised. Domestic policy to address these issues could work in those specific areas to heal wounds but it's not what drove the Brexit vote in huge swathes of true blue provincial England which was more influenced by the cultural values I refer to above. To deliver the Brexit they voted for is to deliver Tory not Labour values. A Labour government would (hopefully) never appease them either in or out of the EU and part of being against Brexit for me is about resisting the imposition of those values on the rest of us.

All of this, though, is a little beside my main point that I was trying (and probably failing) to make which is that, however great and generally popular domestic policies may be they can't eradicate the necessity that a genuine consensus needs to be found to resolve Brexit, that we need a solution in/out, soft/hard that a large majority of the nation are actually behind via genuine persuasion with real facts and informed debate. Corbyn will have to pick a path and try to build that consensus if we have a GE. He's not going to be able to campaign solely or even mostly on domestic issues this time around. My caveat above to that is that May faces an even bigger challenge in this regard, in not having a consensus Brexit policy or a decent domestic policy, hence my long held instinct that we are unlikely to get a GE.

And I think I'll stop there before I make even less sense.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I have got gout, people. One of the most painful things I can remember - only tooth abscesses can compare in my adult days

Has anybody else here been similarly "blessed"?

No, but I had cellulitis in my foot once and was told the pain was similar, my sympathies.

Our old neighbour had it and used to say tomatoes set it off.

Willow904 wrote: I'm doubtful a socialist domestic program will heal the cultural divide that drove the Brexit vote. If we leave under Labour it will be the wrong kind of leave for a lot of leave voters because nationwide the bulk of leave voters were Tories.

Yes, plenty of our affluent neighbours voted leave and they'd never vote Labour.
We've always had that cultural divide as far as I can remember, I'm 64. Brexit has given it more prominence and highlighted it's ugly side, but I fail to see why we should think that it can be healed? There are selfish people and unselfish people and always will be. 'Bringing people together' is a lost cause imo, and shouldn't drive policy.

From the G liveblog:

In the Commons yesterday Sir Oliver Letwin, the Conservative former cabinet minister, asked Starmer specifically if Labour would be willing to cooperate with government backbenchers like himself on some sort of Norway option. There was nothing in today’s speech to suggest that Corbyn is interested in taking up this offer.

I wouldn't really expect Labour to openly discuss what compromises would lead them to support May's deal but given their commitment to leave the EU I've been quite surprised they haven't been asked this question by the media a lot more than they have. It's a lot more immediately pertinent than what their Brexit policy would be in a hypothetical election. I wonder if it's because Corbyn has been so emphatic that Labour would oppose May's deal regardless.

There are some people trying to curry favour for May's deal saying that it's just the withdrawal agreement and that it's possible to go on from here to whatever you want to go on to, but there are some problems with this.

The first is that the 'political declaration' (which is a statement of intent rather than a document with formal standing but which is still there in black and white) says that we're going to end up with an end to free movement of goods and just have a basic free trade agreement with some specific add ons about security - it doesn't say that in black and white but it does, again, say 'The EU's acquis holds, the UK's red lines hold' and that means no free movement of goods / services / capital /labour, no ECJ oversight and therefore no membership of EU agencies...

... and it follows from this that the effect on NI will be to permanently move it out of the UK's 'economic integrity' and to keep it functionally within the rules of the SM and CU so far as they relate to the continued functional operation of the border as now (which is what we agreed in December 2017 and are still agreeing to know so far as I can see).

So...

* There is no prospect at all for the 'backstop' not coming into effect, and it's deeply dishonest of the government to claim otherwise, and
* We are heading for an end to many of our current business practices and will be thoroughly outside of the EU's very integrated economy

... and what Labour's leadership should be saying, I think, is firstly the truth about the NI situation, and secondly the truth about what May is actually proposing. And they should be doing this loudly and consistently, and they should be linking these things into the wide anti-austerity and social justice things Corbyn was rightly also talking about today.

There is a strong argument (that isn't being made anywhere, or if it is it's being done in very quiet whispers) that no government should be able to break up the UK in this way without specific consent shown from a specific referendum asking that specific question. It's only right to add that 'remain' voting NI might well vote to accept her deal if it got the chance.

Willow904 wrote:Finding it hard to express myself today.

What I'm trying to say is that the media theme of the leave vote being caused by austerity and neglect in some regions, although true, has been rather over emphasised. Domestic policy to address these issues could work in those specific areas to heal wounds but it's not what drove the Brexit vote in huge swathes of true blue provincial England which was more influenced by the cultural values I refer to above. To deliver the Brexit they voted for is to deliver Tory not Labour values. A Labour government would (hopefully) never appease them either in or out of the EU and part of being against Brexit for me is about resisting the imposition of those values on the rest of us.

All of this, though, is a little beside my main point that I was trying (and probably failing) to make which is that, however great and generally popular domestic policies may be they can't eradicate the necessity that a genuine consensus needs to be found to resolve Brexit, that we need a solution in/out, soft/hard that a large majority of the nation are actually behind via genuine persuasion with real facts and informed debate. Corbyn will have to pick a path and try to build that consensus if we have a GE. He's not going to be able to campaign solely or even mostly on domestic issues this time around. My caveat above to that is that May faces an even bigger challenge in this regard, in not having a consensus Brexit policy or a decent domestic policy, hence my long held instinct that we are unlikely to get a GE.

And I think I'll stop there before I make even less sense.

As so often, I think we basically agree Willow.

But IMHO there's one thing for sure about consensus is you can't know precisely what it is before you've had chance to develop it. The enemy of change is the "devil in the detail" argument. So, Corbyn and Starmer IMHO should not make specific proposals at this point, because every little issue will become a battle. The first step is to agree to work together, to agree that consensus is the target. Only then start to develop the specifics.

One example of why I may be right is May's deal. As you have said, it's not per se a disaster. It's a disaster because nobody except May and her kitchen cabinet owns it.

@Adam

From what the EU have said, they are unwilling to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, but I'm less clear on whether they would allow a revision of the political declaration.

i.e. If May found a majority for her deal if she changed the political declaration to, say, single market membership in some form I'm assuming this could be accommodated.

I appreciate this would require a huge change of position from Labour, but the hard Brexiters get what they want via inaction so something has to shift to break the deadlock or they're going to get their wish and to expect a Tory government to do anything that exposes it to the risk of no Brexit at all is unrealistic given their voter demographic.

As such I found the above from Oliver Letwin interesting, especially as the SNP have indicated they could support a single market option. Is there any chance at all Labour could get behind this after the original deal has been voted down? Or have expectations of a GE or people's vote become too high for such a compromise to be tolerated?

gilsey wrote:

Willow904 wrote: I'm doubtful a socialist domestic program will heal the cultural divide that drove the Brexit vote. If we leave under Labour it will be the wrong kind of leave for a lot of leave voters because nationwide the bulk of leave voters were Tories.

Yes, plenty of our affluent neighbours voted leave and they'd never vote Labour.
We've always had that cultural divide as far as I can remember, I'm 64. Brexit has given it more prominence and highlighted it's ugly side, but I fail to see why we should think that it can be healed? There are selfish people and unselfish people and always will be. 'Bringing people together' is a lost cause imo, and shouldn't drive policy.

But the people I'm talking about are not selfish, not at all. Generous, community minded folk who would probably vote Labour or not vote at all. But decided the right thing to do was vote Leave. Often still unsure the night before. I still believe nobody is really listening to them.

As I've said before (and I'll shut up for a while after this one!), I would read the 52:48 vote not as 52% people vehemently anti-EU and 48% massively pro-EU.

Rather, in the same way Corbyn famously gave the EU 7/10, the average voter gave it 4.8 out of 10.

Tom Newton Dunn
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Blimey. PM will lose meaningful vote on Tuesday by a majority of 228, research by @BBCPolitics finds. Number of MPs opposing up by 19 since the delay last month. For: 206, Against: 433.

6:09 AM - 10 Jan 2019

Wow.

And then 3 days in which to come up with a different plan. Which might of course include resigning.

I did like this...

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:As I've said before (and I'll shut up for a while after this one!), I would read the 52:48 vote not as 52% people vehemently anti-EU and 48% massively pro-EU.

Rather, in the same way Corbyn famously gave the EU 7/10, the average voter gave it 4.8 out of 10.

You may well be right. In response to that I'd say then that the UK's membership within the EU has been poorly understood by both those voting remain and leave. The average voter giving it 4.8 out of 10 underestimated the value of EU membership and have made a mistake voting to leave it. I value membership more than I did over two years ago. Benefits of the UK's EU membership overwhelm any disadvantages.

A useful calm look at what happened yesterday.

In an unprecedented crisis, how useful is precedent?

https://hughpemberton.org.uk/in-an-unpr ... precedent/

Not surprisingly, those wishing to keep alternative options off the table were livid, and they attacked the Speaker for his break with Parliamentary precedent and accused him of provoking a ‘constitutional crisis‘.

There is, however, something faintly bizarre about assuming past precedent must necessarily govern the operation of the House of Commons in a situation without precedent.

Quite.

Interesting to note that as far as I could see Bercow was getting far more flak than the MP who moved the amendment in the first place.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

gilsey wrote:

Willow904 wrote: I'm doubtful a socialist domestic program will heal the cultural divide that drove the Brexit vote. If we leave under Labour it will be the wrong kind of leave for a lot of leave voters because nationwide the bulk of leave voters were Tories.

Yes, plenty of our affluent neighbours voted leave and they'd never vote Labour.
We've always had that cultural divide as far as I can remember, I'm 64. Brexit has given it more prominence and highlighted it's ugly side, but I fail to see why we should think that it can be healed? There are selfish people and unselfish people and always will be. 'Bringing people together' is a lost cause imo, and shouldn't drive policy.

But the people I'm talking about are not selfish, not at all. Generous, community minded folk who would probably vote Labour or not vote at all. But decided the right thing to do was vote Leave. Often still unsure the night before. I still believe nobody is really listening to them.

Individuals voted for all sorts of reasons and I'm sure some leave voters had very good intentions and I'm not being critical of them as individuals but it's hard to describe the main messages of the various leave campaigns as coming from a place of generosity and compassion. There was a lot of anti-immigrant rhetoric, blurred with racism and posters of refugees from the Middle East and beyond, alongside the bus saying our money currently being spent by Brussels should be spent by us on our NHS or what we choose and so on. Not to mention the desire of the right to leave the ECHR, something we can only do if we leave the EU. So there's leaving the EU, which can be a relatively politically neutral choice, and then there's the leaving the EU campaigns which were completely dominated by Tories and right wing values and it's the latter which is divisive because many of the stated aims of Brexit are anathema to many of those who voted remain. Such divisions are not easily healed. People who have embraced the freedom of movement of the EU through marriage or making their home abroad in particular will pay a very heavy price for the UK's choice to leave and they're not really being listened to either.

Willow904 wrote:---
People who have embraced the freedom of movement of the EU through marriage or making their home abroad in particular will pay a very heavy price for the UK's choice to leave and they're not really being listened to either.

(cJA edit)
Yes
Millions of UK-EU citizens, families, homes, careers
These political decisions are going right into millions of peoples' lives

Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA

Beginning of a new era tonight with Fiona Bruce taking over from Dimbleby on Question Time.

Lots of randy male foxes around here at the moment, there's been one barking outside now for an hour or so and I saw one earlier in broad daylight wandering nonchalantly along the road barking away trying to attract females. Thankfully this being a Labour constituency it was safe from bloodthirsty toffs.

James Cleverly and Mad Mel?

Rather you than me pal...

Question Time report.

From London this week which last time I visited made my snots go black.

Tonight was Fiona Bruce's first outing as chair of the debate and it was a triumph. She was calm, assured and sultry as hell. At no point did she have to raise her voice, just serenely kept everything in check with a gesture or a couple of words. Like some kind of politics TV jedi. While at the same time mocking some of the most egregious nonsense being spouted by panel members. She's a breath of fresh air the programme desperately needed.

For the insane we had Melanie Phillips, thankfully Mad Mel was ignored for most of the programme but when she was allowed to express what she presumably regards to be coherent thought she claimed that Remain voters should have been completely ignored and Brexit would have gone much better if it had been negotiated by a true brexiter. Which does beg the question does she think David Davis is a secret remainer? After all it was only after the useless lazy fucker resigned that May sent Ollie Robbins instead and reduced the role of 'Brexit secretary' to that of ceremonial laughing stock. Melanie also went on to claim the Macpherson report had all been a load of bollocks and the police hadn't been racist while simultaneously trying to claim it was the Left who were racist for ignoring black kids in gangs killing each other. Which rather flies in the face of the fact that where I live (I can't speak for any parts of London) it's the left, through charities now that the council funding has gone, who are trying to intervene with after school clubs and the like. It may be a futile effort, who knows? But at least we're doing more than Melanie fucking Phillips.

For Labour we had Emily Thornberry again. The tragedy is that outside the Brexit debate when it came to knife crime in London Emily was great, she was let off the leash and could say exactly what she thought, but while on said leash she sounded as moronic as Labour's Brexit policy. And it wasn't the panel who gave her most of the stick it was the audience. A young woman asked her if she understood Labour was betraying the young remain voters who had voted Labour at the last election and Emily's response was to robotically repeat all the Corbynite bollocks we've heard before, and people began laughing, Fiona Bruce even pointed out to her that she was being laughed at, but to give Emily her dues she stuck to her guns. Which I guess is admirable. But surely it would be better not to be ridiculed in the first place?

For the Tories we had James Cleverly who just repeated over and over again that May's deal was the best thing since sliced bread and was mocked by the Bruce (as I've now decided to call her) when she asked him if he had a plan B. After much waffling it turned out his plan B was in fact May's deal being offered again and he had nothing. A pitiful specimen.

For the exasperated we had Nish Kumar, I'm not a big fan of what I've seen of the Mash Report but he did a decent job tonight of essentially putting his head in his hands and asking 'what the fuck is going on'? But then he also got properly angry with Melanie Phillips which is always a mistake as creatures like her feed and make money from that kind of thing. As a comedian he should have known better.

And finally for the poor little Lib-Dems we had Jo Swinson. Jo said 'everything's gone to shit let's have another referendum' and I agreed with her.

So usually my star of the show would go to Jo Swinson because she was smart enough to think the same as me, but not tonight.

Tonight it goes to the Bruce who made a rather splendid debut.