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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 8:43 pm 
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Robin Lustig
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Just got an email offering me a ticket to Paris on Eurostar for £29. Hurry, hurry, escape now, before the borders are sealed ...


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 8:45 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
Frank Field, Kate Hoey and John Mann voted for.

Field and Hoey not Labour though.

Austin and Barron too for Labour.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 8:46 pm 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Frank Field, Kate Hoey and John Mann voted for.

Field and Hoey (?) not Labour though.

Austin and Barron too for Labour.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 8:47 pm 
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Not a passenger. That's not quite right.

It's more like she's finally been forced to put all her cards on the table and they're dreadful, a truly pathetic hand and everyone in the game is laughing and proclaiming her a loser and so she's stood up and said "fine, you think it's a bad hand, so let's see what you've got..."

And, of course, someone may have some really good cards and will blow her out of the water...but until everyone plays their hand, until every avenue is tested to see if it can command the majority May's hand can't, she is still, just about, in the game...

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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 9:06 pm 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Frank Field, Kate Hoey and John Mann voted for.

Field and Hoey not Labour though.

Austin and Barron too for Labour.


Bit surprised that Field and Hoey didn't vote against due to it not being Hard brexity enough.

But then again, people not not have realised that this would be the reason and assume they were, for once, agreeing with the rest of Labour...

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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 9:28 pm 
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Interesting times indeed, May takes a monumental thrashing and Corbyn didn't prevaricate with the motion of no confidence. From a second referendum point of view that all went quite splendidly. Still not confident it'll ever happen mind you, Corbyn loyalist like Richard Burgon (embarrassed that I voted for him) and Rebecca Long-Bailey being decidedly shifty about what would happen in the likely event they lose the no confidence vote.

Those I really don't understand are the Tory Brexiters, they're like frogs in a pan of slowly boiling water, listening to Boris Johnson you'd think this was all wonderful for his cause, but from where I'm sitting they're screwed. There's very little support in parliament for their Canada+ deal and there's still more than enough time and opportunity for no deal to be killed off either through an amendment or legislation.

So that leaves either another May effort with a bit of cross party tweaking, A Norway type deal, or a second referendum.

And it's the first of those that I would expect to be the most likely, but then we hear that May was told by the party chairman and some of her ministers that reaching out to the Labour party would be suicide as the membership would go ballistic.

A Norway deal I could live with, not great but not a disaster and the arch brexiters would have a struggle legitimately complaining about it as the likes of Farage spent years asking "What's wrong with Norway?"

And a second referendum is obviously my preferred option, but that requires the support of the Labour leadership and I have absolutely no confidence Corbyn will respect the motion of his own conference and the will of his own membership.

So right now the only thing I'm reasonably confident about is now this has all been blown wide open and cross party compromise at the very least will have to be employed a hard brexit or no deal are dead. And the Tory brexiters in the pan seem blithely unaware that the water around them has started to bubble.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 9:38 pm 
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Quote:
Changes to disability benefits cost £4bn in extra welfare payments

OBR’s figures will bolster disability groups’ calls for overhaul of PIP system (Guardian)


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/15/disability-benefits-reform-costs-government-4bn-in-extra-welfare-payments


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 9:44 pm 
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Oh and I sent a lengthy and polite email to my idiot MP Richard Burgon weeks ago expressing my disappointment about his reported (and not denied) opposition to another referendum and have so far received absolutely zilch in response, I believe a visit to his surgery may be in order. I'll wear my pointy toed Chelsea boots in case any kicks to the groin or arse regions are required.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 10:34 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
Changes to disability benefits cost £4bn in extra welfare payments

OBR’s figures will bolster disability groups’ calls for overhaul of PIP system (Guardian)


They won't care, the Tories like to bleat on about saving money when it comes to Social Security but all the evidence shows they're perfectly happy to waste colossal amounts of public money if it suits then ideologically and electorally. Take ESA, they chuck away millions of pounds fighting appeals that they lose about 60% of the time, why? Because politically they want to make it look like they're making it difficult for 'scroungers' which then results in people perfectly entitled to benefits being denied them and consequently a huge number of costly tribunals. And now exactly the same thing is happening with PIP.

The answer of course would be to have proper assessments for both, using actual real doctors and properly taking the patients medical history into account, but apparently paying millions to private companies who employ physiotherapists to assess people with mental health problems is a much better idea.

It was Labour who started all this, they brought in the WCA and ATOS, but (and I say this as someone who has been forced to endure this under Labour and the Tories) at least under Labour I was assessed by a real doctor and my dealings with the DWP seemed relatively fair and at times even helpful. Once the Tories scraped in with their Lib-Dem enablers and that loathsome wretch Duncan Smith took charge it's been a nightmare ever since.

So no, they couldn't give a shit about the cost, it's all about how it looks in the Mail and Telegraph.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 10:45 pm 
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Emily Maitliss wearing that weird coat again on Newsnight. A perfectly good overcoat covered in weird random patches, why is there a big 5 on her arm?

I bet it cost a fortune.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 11:01 pm 
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Hmmm...100 Labour MP's going to call for a second referendum tomorrow when the vote of no confidence fails according to Maitliss.

Think I better check where she's got that from.

Ah, The Express.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 11:09 pm 
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David Davis to Maitliss "To stop the remainers will require a fair amount of cleverness".

He he.


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 11:31 pm 
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Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA


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PostPosted: Tue 15 Jan, 2019 11:38 pm 
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And that's it, no more politics telly for the night.

From what I've been able to gather the brexiters are smugly sitting back saying no deal will happen automatically by law.

But as far as I'm aware parliament can change the law whenever it likes given the opportunity. Indeed they can even go back in time as Iain Duncan Smith did in denying sanctioned benefit claimants the money the high court ordered to be payed by retrospectively changing the law.

So it seems to me they're on a bit of a shoogly peg.


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PostPosted: Wed 16 Jan, 2019 12:14 am 
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Shoogly peg.

I don't even know what that is but I like the idea of Iain Duncan Smith being on one.

However, if Tories can't join up with Labour and vice versa, to form a positive majority for either soft Brext, a referendum or GE, in the absence of a vote in favour of May's deal, no deal is what we will get. That we leave the EU on 29th of March is defined by article 50 and enshrined in the withdrawal bill passed in the summer. We have already decided to leave the EU and put most of the legislation in place to make it happen. It will take a lot of unified activity from moderate Tory rebels that we haven't seen before or a sudden fit of real leadership from May that has been missing to date, to stop what has already been set in motion.

The ERG need do nothing to get their way, the soft Brexit/remainers need to do a lot, in a very short space of time.

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PostPosted: Wed 16 Jan, 2019 12:34 am 
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A shoogly peg is a wobbly leg. A precarious point of balance.

And you're right Willow if nothing is done.

Where I disagree with you is the soft brexit/remainers have ample time and opportunity to amend or change the law.

Curiously I'm taking my confidence from Tories like Nicky Morgan and Dominic Grieve.

Both have pointed out there are multiple routes, paths, snickets where no deal can be thwarted.

They seem pretty relaxed about it, and in Grieve's case I think he understands the arcane procedure of parliament better than just about anybody.


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