Thursday 17th January 2019

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refitman
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Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by refitman »

Morning all.
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Willow904
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by Willow904 »

Morning.

Government minister being interviewed on R4 this morning (sorry, don't know who, I wasn't entirely awake) getting a really hard time over May's apparent intractability. He wasn't able to offer any areas of compromise at all. The idea of not being able to do independent trade deals if we were in a customs union came up a lot as "not delivering Brexit".

Signs at the moment are that she's simply going to come back to Parliament with the same deal until the clock runs out. If she does ever shift position my money would be on a further referendum. If parliament wants a soft Brexit they're going to have to find a way to do it without her, I suspect.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Willow904 wrote:Morning.

Government minister being interviewed on R4 this morning (sorry, don't know who, I wasn't entirely awake) getting a really hard time over May's apparent intractability. He wasn't able to offer any areas of compromise at all. The idea of not being able to do independent trade deals if we were in a customs union came up a lot as "not delivering Brexit".

Signs at the moment are that she's simply going to come back to Parliament with the same deal until the clock runs out. If she does ever shift position my money would be on a further referendum. If parliament wants a soft Brexit they're going to have to find a way to do it without her, I suspect.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

@Willow

I agree. If she really is so intractable, do you think the DUP and a few Soubry types could be persuaded to bring down the Government?
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by Willow904 »

I'm not sure how the DUP feel about no deal. They are against anything, understandably, that would leave NI on different terms with the EU than the rest of the UK, so that would include Labour's customs union only policy. Only a single market + CU solution would work for them, but they harbour the same dreams of being completely free of the EU as the ERG. I don't know what they would support, tbh.

The soft Brexit Tories have been pretty quiet and May seems unshiftable on soft Brexit. I think Grieve is the only one who's shown any signs of willingness to put country before party. He and a few others might be willing to threaten to bring her down to force her into a referendum, possibly, if it were clear a referendum could command a majority.

Hence, I suspect, the next couple of days is going to be all about Corbyn and his willingness or not to get behind a people's vote.

As you know, I favour a SM solution, so this is what I think could happen rather than what I particularly want, especially as delaying article 50 long enough to hold a referendum will be difficult. We really needed to have got to this point before Christmas if we wanted to go down this route, as we may have been able to squeeze one in before July but I think the timetable is too tight now and thus things will get complicated. The EU would hopefully play ball, though.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Good-morning, everyone
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

306 versus 325
ought to rattle the hell out of any reasonable minority government
we don't have a reasonable minority government
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Morning all.

Heard on the news that Vince Cable and Caroline Lucas are calling on the PM to take No-deal off the table too...
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

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I'm not certain but as I understand it the DUP would be perfectly happy to leave with no deal, perfectly happy for the Good Friday Agreement to fall. This is more speculation but when you look at the population changes in NI they are probably in their last years of ascendancy - SF missed coming top of first preferences in the last assembly elections by just under 800 votes - probably the main reason that there is virtually no prospect of fresh assembly elections in the foreseeable future.

The one 'political' mis-step I think Corbyn made is that he gifted one response to his detractors by saying 'no talks until you take no deal off the table' - this is the man who always insisted it was right to talk to anyone (except the right wouldn't say 'anyone' they would say 'IRA Murderers') without any preconditions, but he won't keep to the same standards for this crisis.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

adam wrote:I'm not certain but as I understand it the DUP would be perfectly happy to leave with no deal, perfectly happy for the Good Friday Agreement to fall.
---
(cJA edit)
Yes, I think you're right.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

adam wrote:---
The one 'political' mis-step I think Corbyn made is that he gifted one response to his detractors by saying 'no talks until you take no deal off the table' - this is the man who always insisted it was right to talk to anyone (except the right wouldn't say 'anyone' they would say 'IRA Murderers') without any preconditions, but he won't keep to the same standards for this crisis.
(cJA edit)
You may be right but do the circumstances and job description make this an appropriate comparison? Sincere question. I don't know.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Prime minister invites party leaders to discuss alternative deal but sticks to red lines
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... xit-defeat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That means she's unwilling to discuss alternatives
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

citizenJA wrote:
adam wrote:---
The one 'political' mis-step I think Corbyn made is that he gifted one response to his detractors by saying 'no talks until you take no deal off the table' - this is the man who always insisted it was right to talk to anyone (except the right wouldn't say 'anyone' they would say 'IRA Murderers') without any preconditions, but he won't keep to the same standards for this crisis.
(cJA edit)
You may be right but do the circumstances and job description make this an appropriate comparison? Sincere question. I don't know.
I think he was absolutely right to deal with this now this way - and for what it's worth I think he was right about talking to people before, he was only saying in public what the conservative government were doing in secret.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

When someone tells you do something and won't accept no in response, it's not a request, it's a demand.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

citizenJA wrote:When someone tells you do something and won't accept no in response, it's not a request, it's a demand.
Yes. I think it's fairly obvious already that when May said
“I’m inviting MPs from all parties to come together to find a way forward, one that both delivers on the referendum and can command the support of parliament. This is now the time to put self-interest aside.”
what she meant was
This is the deal. I am not prepared to compromise or change my mind about anything. You need to come and tell me that you agree with me.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

Hitachi scraps £16bn nuclear power station in Wales
Japanese giant unable to agree deal with UK as fears grow for Anglesey atomic plant. The £16bn Wylfa plant on Anglesey was meant to be the next in a line of new nuclear plants behind Hinkley Point C but the Japanese conglomerate has been unable to agree a deal with the UK government. With costs mounting and nearly £2bn spent on the project, a Hitachi board meeting pulled the plug on Thursday. The decision is a serious blow to the government’s energy strategy and hopes of attracting major investments post-Brexit.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

“We will not be party to Corbyn using spurious means to avoid Labour policy, by pursuing unwinnable no confidence votes.”
Say the Lib Dems. Who up until now have been ridiculing Corbyn for not pursuing unwinnable no confidence votes.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

Willow904 wrote:As you know, I favour a SM solution, so this is what I think could happen rather than what I particularly want, especially as delaying article 50 long enough to hold a referendum will be difficult.
A single market solution, either with CU or with a comprehensive FTA, is the only thing that resolves the issue of the Irish border. It's the only way we can meet the commitments we made in December 2017. My issue with this (which I've said before including yesterday and which you responded to yesterday, I know) is that I think there are real problems in choosing 'leaving' but functionally remaining within all of the regulatory structures without a say over just remaining.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by Willow904 »

citizenJA wrote:
adam wrote:---
The one 'political' mis-step I think Corbyn made is that he gifted one response to his detractors by saying 'no talks until you take no deal off the table' - this is the man who always insisted it was right to talk to anyone (except the right wouldn't say 'anyone' they would say 'IRA Murderers') without any preconditions, but he won't keep to the same standards for this crisis.
(cJA edit)
You may be right but do the circumstances and job description make this an appropriate comparison? Sincere question. I don't know.
It's not in May's gift to take no deal off the table so Corbyn's demand isn't a genuine prerequisite to talks but a device to avoid engaging while making May look like the one unwilling to engage. Which is actually the case, as the Libdems and Greens have now discovered.

It could have backfired if her offer to pursue a consensus was genuine, but it appears that's not the case. All indications are that May is sticking to "her deal or no deal".

Any breakthrough of the deadlock now depends on the moderate Tories, imo. They need to threaten to support the next no confidence vote if she doesn't properly open up the debate to further alternatives. They could sound out the opposition to supporting the WA with a change to the future declaration, or sound out numbers for a referendum and basically tell her it's that or a GE.

Could and should. But will they? I have no idea.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

I'm grateful you're here, everyone. The discussions and friendships we've created together are invaluable to me.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

Another reason May can't afford to stop giving in to her hardliners - in May she is defending the May 2015 local council elections - where off the back of a very unexpected general election win on the same day the Tories did well, gaining nearly 500 seats. If she's going to break her party then either she can't afford to break it before May OR she needs to break it against the more remain minded who are a significant minority amongst the tory party in the country.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

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adam wrote:Another reason May can't afford to stop giving in to her hardliners - in May she is defending the May 2015 local council elections - where off the back of a very unexpected general election win on the same day the Tories did well, gaining nearly 500 seats. If she's going to break her party then either she can't afford to break it before May OR she needs to break it against the more remain minded who are a significant minority amongst the tory party in the country.
Good point well made!
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

So IDS and fellow self proclaimed Christians enacted a massive targeted couple penalty whilst bemoaning otherwise.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

See also "death tax"
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

Far more the case that we have simple politicians bemoaning complexity ie real life/situations.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

Decent point from Corbyn
He says he did meet the PM in December. They agreed five days of debate, and a vote on 11 December. But then May cancelled the vote.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Heard on the news that Vince Cable and Caroline Lucas are calling on the PM to take No-deal off the table too...
But.....but......all the SENSIBLE PUNDITS assured us last night that Corbyn was stupid for doing so!!
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

There doesn't seem to be anything some media won't publish regardless of its veracity
there's no reasoning with intentional mendacity
I've no idea how to effectively counter that power
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

And yes, people are right to point out Watson's speech yesterday was very good.

It maybe isn't illegitimate to wonder why we haven't seen more of that in the last three years, though.......
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Sigh...
Labour MP Mike Gapes - who is a critic of Jeremy Corbyn - said the leader's decision not to meet Theresa May for talks unless she rules out a no-deal Brexit is wrong.

Mr Gapes told the BBC Radio 4's World at One programme: "He's been quite happy in the past to meet with Hamas and Hezbollah and President Assad and the Iranians without pre-conditions.

"I can't see why he has this pre-condition. He can then go in and argue robustly against the no-deal and set out his position and she can set out her position.

"But unless we get dialogue across Parliament and across government and opposition, we are not going to get out of this national crisis."
Mike's my local MP and I've met him a few time through school events and he's a nice guy...but No Deal is a sign of failure.

Why on earth would anyone go into talks with failure on the table as well as all of the options?
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

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https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Good morfternoon.

Would it not be an idea for Theresa May to try to hold at least some meetings with different factions in one gathering - rather than separating them out?
Last edited by PorFavor on Thu 17 Jan, 2019 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

Would it not be at least an idea for Theresa May to at least try to hold at least some meetings with different factions in at least one gathering - rather than at least separating them out?
She'd have to pretend to be trying to reach some kind of compromise if she did that.

This really does seem to be the most god-awful waste of everybody's time. I wasn't sure about the idea of indicative votes but I think it's a sensible way forward now. She will doubtless insist on voting for her rejected deal again as part of it but it would give some heft to the people on the tory benches who are going to have to break ranks to pass some kind of alternative.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by PorFavor »

At least one too many "at least"s in my post, above. Hence the edit. Thanks, adam, for making it all worthwhile!
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

adam wrote:Another reason May can't afford to stop giving in to her hardliners - in May she is defending the May 2015 local council elections - where off the back of a very unexpected general election win on the same day the Tories did well, gaining nearly 500 seats. If she's going to break her party then either she can't afford to break it before May OR she needs to break it against the more remain minded who are a significant minority amongst the tory party in the country.
Though having those elections just weeks after the inevitable total chaos of no-deal wouldn't exactly be ideal either?

In fact its one reason why IMO some sort of delay is distinctly possible.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by adam »

PorFavor wrote:At least one too many "at least"s in my post, above. Hence the edit. Thanks, adam, for making it all worthwhile!
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

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adam wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

Would it not be at least an idea for Theresa May to at least try to hold at least some meetings with different factions in at least one gathering - rather than at least separating them out?
She'd have to pretend to be trying to reach some kind of compromise if she did that.

This really does seem to be the most god-awful waste of everybody's time. I wasn't sure about the idea of indicative votes but I think it's a sensible way forward now. She will doubtless insist on voting for her rejected deal again as part of it but it would give some heft to the people on the tory benches who are going to have to break ranks to pass some kind of alternative.
Yes - but she's, for whatever the reason, perpetuating the perception\reality that she's really got no plan, and is saying different things to different people.

Meanwhile, the business of vital day-to-day government is grinding to a halt.


Edited to add -

Although, under the current Government, that may not be a wholly bad thing!
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

PorFavor wrote: Meanwhile, the business of vital day-to-day government is grinding to a halt.


Edited to add -

Although, under the current Government, that may not be a wholly bad thing!
Pretty sure there was a Sir Humphrey maxim of "If they're not doing anything, then at least they're not doing anything wrong..."
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Hasn't stopped their 'reform' roll outs
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Re the above comment by Willow - yes, our PM cannot unilaterally rule out "no deal" in a legal sense. But she could make clear it was off the table POLITICALLY speaking.

The two are not actually the same (something "legal Twitter" often seems to have problems with)
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by gilsey »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Re the above comment by Willow - yes, our PM cannot unilaterally rule out "no deal" in a legal sense. But she could make clear it was off the table POLITICALLY speaking.

The two are not actually the same (something "legal Twitter" often seems to have problems with)
Why do you say she can't rule it out? As I understand it she's the one who can revoke A50. Do you think she couldn't win a vote in Parliament on that on March 27?
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Well, in the sense that would need parliament's approval she can't do it unilaterally. But point taken ;)
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by gilsey »

BBC criticised for sticking with football over PM's address to the nation
Former news chief says BBC One should have switched to PM as Brexit is more important than a third-round FA Cup replay


Seriously? Imo they'd have got egg on their face if they'd done the opposite given that she had nothing at all to say.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

HindleA wrote:Far more the case that we have simple politicians bemoaning complexity ie real life/situations.
let's sack them and hire competent representatives
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by gilsey »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well, in the sense that would need parliament's approval she can't do it unilaterally. But point taken ;)
DAG seems to think she might not even need that.
Anyway, I would argue that it's all still political obstacles, not legal ones.
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Many lawyers say that Article 50 revocation would need primary legislation.

In a minority, I would contend that the power to revoke is implicit in the Act providing the PM with the power to notify.
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by PorFavor »

1m ago 16:27
Holding second referendum would take a year, No 10 claims

That does seem rather long. A report from the Constitution Unit (pdf) published last year said that, at a minimum, it would take 22 weeks to hold a second referendum, taking into account the time needed to pass the legislation and organise the campaign (Politics Live, Guardian)
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultat ... order-2019" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


The draft Equality Act (Age Exception for Pension Schemes) (Amendment) Order 2019
Published 16 January 2019
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by gilsey »

PorFavor wrote:
1m ago 16:27
Holding second referendum would take a year, No 10 claims

That does seem rather long. A report from the Constitution Unit (pdf) published last year said that, at a minimum, it would take 22 weeks to hold a second referendum, taking into account the time needed to pass the legislation and organise the campaign (Politics Live, Guardian)
There seemed to be rumours flying about on twitter yesterday that Germany & France were discussing a year's extension to the A50 period without any justification at all except presumably their own assessment of the potential damage to EU members from no deal, so I'm not sure it taking a year would rule it out anyway.
Desperate much?
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by PorFavor »

6m ago 16:52

John Sentamu, the archbishop of York, is urging people to join him in praying for MPs. “The weight of their calling is too much to bear in their own strength,” he says. (Politics Live, Guardian)
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Re: Thursday 17th January 2019

Post by PorFavor »

PTO
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