Tuesday 12th March 2019

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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Important political maneuvers are going on right now, I know that. I thought a few things worth posting.
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:In one final throw of the dice, the establishment have deployed their ultimate weapon to make sure Corbyn never becomes PM ;-)
(((Dan Hodges)))
‏@DPJHodges

For the first time I genuinely think we might be heading for a general election. And I also think an election heald amidst this chaos could end up with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. Incredible given everything that’s happened over the past few months.
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Crossed my mind, too. Especially as his tenure (and wages) in government may not be especially secure.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Above post in reply to PaulfromYorkshire re Geoffrey Cox.
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

adam wrote:Vote being pulled in 3. 2.. 1...
tactics of an autocrat
it's like dissolving Parliaments or refusing to call one
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

I've already had a PTO, thanks . . .
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adam
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by adam »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:In one final throw of the dice, the establishment have deployed their ultimate weapon to make sure Corbyn never becomes PM ;-)
(((Dan Hodges)))
‏@DPJHodges

For the first time I genuinely think we might be heading for a general election. And I also think an election heald amidst this chaos could end up with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. Incredible given everything that’s happened over the past few months.
I cannot understand - and have never been understand through this process - how it could benefit May to have to pull her party together under one manifesto, under one clear commitment - and so have never understood how it could be considered likely that she would seek to call an election. It's nice to have my hunches confirmed in this way.
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AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

citizenJA wrote:
adam wrote:Vote being pulled in 3. 2.. 1...
tactics of an autocrat
it's like dissolving Parliaments or refusing to call one
I don't think it has actually happened.

Yet.......
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Mark Francois will vote for May.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

May can hardly speak!
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
adam wrote:Vote being pulled in 3. 2.. 1...
tactics of an autocrat
it's like dissolving Parliaments or refusing to call one
I don't think it has actually happened.

Yet.......
The debate is under way!
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Hardy melon, chopped, gives strong support to May from Northern Ireland (4,6).
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Sour banyan (4,6).
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adam
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by adam »

I think...

There are 312 conservative MPs

250 Labour (including a few 'lost the whip' ones for the moment)
56 SNP
12 LD
4 PC
322

11? TIG - Plans?

So even if May could whip all of her supposed members through, and even if the DUP simply abstained, labour could see 5 of their MPs voting with the government and the government would hold on by tying and the speaker giving them a casting vote (which is the traditional thing, although that could be interesting)

Very unclear how many tory MPs will abstain or vote against but the number of likely Labour votes for the government also appears very very low

So even though there are a number of former 'no' voters saying they will support her tonight it still looks very much like she will lose...
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by gilsey »

DUP to vote against.
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adam
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by adam »

gilsey wrote:DUP to vote against.
Peston says that he thinks this means she'll lose by about 150. (One thing I saw earlier was saying that there were some Labour MPs who could have been convinced but would have needed to know they were giving up a good deal of political capital for a winning gesture - no chance of that by the looks of things).
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

The sour banyan (Anna Soubry, for it was she) went on Twitter to moan that Corbyn didn't mention a Peoples Vote in his response. Not once!

Except, he did :lol:
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

New:

So what will Theresa May do tonight in event she suffers defeat over meaningful vote?

Hearing rumours from good sources - not verified yet - she could announce she is requesting short A50 extension

Thinking is it averts damaging defeats and buys her time

Let's see...
71
4:13 PM - Mar 12, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)
What justification could she offer the EU for requesting an extension? I think they're already getting shirty (and quite understandably) after today's turn of events.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

PorFavor wrote:
Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

New:

So what will Theresa May do tonight in event she suffers defeat over meaningful vote?

Hearing rumours from good sources - not verified yet - she could announce she is requesting short A50 extension

Thinking is it averts damaging defeats and buys her time

Let's see...
71
4:13 PM - Mar 12, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)
What justification could she offer the EU for requesting an extension? I think they're already getting shirty (and quite understandably) after today's turn of events.
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Wondering where Willow is.
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Damien Moore is Conservative MP for Southport, and may (but I doubt it) have many excellent qualities. However, it seems knowing the meaning of the word "capitulating" is not one of them.

Damien Moore MP

@damienmooremp

Now @10DowningStreet has now secured greater clarity on the NI backstop, I will be voting to support the #WithdrawalAgreement. To do otherwise would be to risk capitulating on the instruction of the British people, risking 'no Brexit'.
41
5:54 PM - Mar 12, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)
Last edited by PorFavor on Tue 12 Mar, 2019 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

I thought Theresa May was hanging on to Chris Grayling because he's such a valuable support. Nothing from him today - although he's probably done her a favour by keeping quiet and staying out of sight.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Yes, definitely a case of "Please don't do or say anything because you can only make things worse"
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Keir Starmer offering a gracious thank you to the poor civil servants who've had to endure all this. Nice gesture.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

They're voting now.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcparliament" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by Willow904 »

Here we go, then.
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Ayes: 242

Noes: 391
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Ayes...242
Nos.....391

Ouch.

What next?
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by Willow904 »

Vote on no deal tomorrow - free vote on Tory side.

Labour will whip against, one assumes, so unlikely to pass, therefore.

Only a significant extension will provide anything other than yet another round of May's deal versus no deal in a few weeks time. Which means accepting we will be returning MEPs in the EU elections in May. Are Labour up for making the arguments for that?
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PorFavor
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

The BBC is reporting that the mood in the EU is "hardening".
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

The EU will probably say, quite rightly, that it is futile to negotiate with May.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

According to the Guardian, 3 Labour MPs voted for the deal tonight:

Caroline Flint
Kevin Barron
John Mann.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

"If there is a solution to the current impasse it can only be found in London," [Donald Tusk] told reporters in Brussels.

Indy
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Robin Lustig
‏@robinlustig
6 minutes ago

So ... (deep breath), Mrs May will vote tommorrow against a No Deal Brexit? (Who said no deal is better than a bad deal?) and then in favour of an extension to Article 50? (Er, who said We WILL leave on 29 March?) Thank goodness Brexit still means Brexit. Until it doesn't.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

A black and blue Brexit?
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by RogerOThornhill »

David Lammy

Verified account

@DavidLammy
4m4 minutes ago
More
Tonight Parliament has voted against May’s Deal. Tomorrow, we will most likely vote against No Deal. It is now time for the leaders of this country to accept that the problem is not this deal or that deal. The problem is Brexit itself.
Well quite.
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by Willow904 »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Wondering where Willow is.
I've been a bit lost for words at the sheer recklessness of it all ;) . Have been about reading, though.
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

I cleaned house until the vote was over. Extraordinary times.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

Even if "No Deal" is ruled out tomorrow, as long as Article 50 is still there (extended for however long) isn't "No Deal" still a possibility in any case? Surely, to get rid of any possibility of a "No Deal" is not in our power as long as Article 50 is still floating about. Although I realise that the EU isn't itself keen on "No Deal".
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Willow904
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by Willow904 »

Extraordinary indeed.

The government agreed the essentials of the Irish backstop over a year ago. We've had plenty of time to digest and face up to the implications, but instead much of parliament has spent the last year in denial of the practical realities of what Brexit means. Those in a position to stop this farce - Tory remainers - failed to step up last summer, failed to support an alternative to May's dire offering when they had the chance. The writing has been on the wall ever since. If MPs don't move quickly to force a decent extension, a no deal crash out is a very real possibility.
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

if no deal is voted off the table what if MPs vote against asking the EU for an extension of Article 50?
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

PorFavor wrote:Even if "No Deal" is ruled out tomorrow, as long as Article 50 is still there (extended for however long) isn't "No Deal" still a possibility in any case? Surely, to get rid of any possibility of a "No Deal" is not in our power as long as Article 50 is still floating about. Although I realise that the EU isn't itself keen on "No Deal".
Good point.
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Start chanting
get back Article 50 and forget the whole thing...
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Did anyone suggest having a vote on asking for Article 50 back?
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

The EU, and leaders of member states, seem to be resigned to a "No Deal" and are planning to ramp up their preparations accordingly. It may be a heat of the moment thing - or it may not be. It's very worrying. If they all have truly given up, we're in a worse place than I feared.
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by PorFavor »

I said this about a week ago - but, I think that Jeremy Corbyn should start talking about his ideas for a reformed EU. I think now is the right time to sow the seeds if he's serious about it.
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citizenJA
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by citizenJA »

PorFavor wrote:I said this about a week ago - but, I think that Jeremy Corbyn should start talking about his ideas for a reformed EU. I think now is the right time to sow the seeds if he's serious about it.
Yes
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adam
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by adam »

In theory, it should follow that if parliament votes against leaving without a withdrawal agreement, then it has effectively voted to revoke article 50 in default of a withdrawal agreement being finalised (and accepted by parliament). In theory.
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adam
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Re: Tuesday 12th March 2019

Post by adam »

There was a good point made by somebody somewhere btl on the gruan's blog - about May's hopeless strategic failure.

If she had sequenced things so...

1. Parliament could vote on declaring that we do not leave without a deal, and then...
2. Parliament could vote on seeking an extension in time for the Article 50 notice period...

... then the EU would still without question be saying 'this is the only deal, no more talk', and so she could then say to her extremists 'there you go, it's my deal of remain' and get parliament to vote on that (or to vote for the country to vote on that). And she would have had them. Because by that point either we leave on her deal on we don't leave.

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