FlyTheNest

“It’s the final chance to do this deal without having to have a long extension of the Article 50 period - I’m clear about that.”

“We will only bring the deal back if we are confident that enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to support it so that we can get it through Parliament.”

“It would be difficult to justify having a vote if you knew we were going to lose it,” he explained. “But the aim would be to get the support behind the Prime Minister.”

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:So, is he expecting there will be a vote and trying to get the ERG on board?

Or, is he softening us all up for the vote to be pulled?

Or both because he doesn't know what will happen?

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Or both because he doesn't know what will happen?

the problem is that the political right in both countries were not playing by the same rules. They had a quite different strategy, which was to shift policy on issues like taxation and the size of the state to the right, and instead try and win elections by pushing a socially conservative agenda. There is no triangulation here, but instead an attempt to hide a right wing agenda by starting a culture war.

gilsey wrote:Wren-Lewis.
Apologies if we've had it already, but it's so good it's worth linking twice anyway.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the problem is that the political right in both countries were not playing by the same rules. They had a quite different strategy, which was to shift policy on issues like taxation and the size of the state to the right, and instead try and win elections by pushing a socially conservative agenda. There is no triangulation here, but instead an attempt to hide a right wing agenda by starting a culture war.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The "idea" seems to be that if May thinks she will lose, the vote is put back until next week and then framed as "either my deal or a two year A50 extension".

Can't possibly see that going wrong, no sirree.

Willow904 wrote:

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The "idea" seems to be that if May thinks she will lose, the vote is put back until next week and then framed as "either my deal or a two year A50 extension".

Can't possibly see that going wrong, no sirree.

Um....isn't the 20th the last date for asking for an extension?

Simon Usherwood
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So, 11 days out, we have no agreement on a deal, no agreement on ratifying a deal, no agreement on an extension and no sign of revocation.

Which means: we continue to head towards a no-deal that Parliament says it will not countenance

Willow904 wrote:

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The "idea" seems to be that if May thinks she will lose, the vote is put back until next week and then framed as "either my deal or a two year A50 extension".

Can't possibly see that going wrong, no sirree.

Um....isn't the 20th the last date for asking for an extension?

But the problem is that the political right in both countries were not playing by the same rules.
---
There is no triangulation here, but instead an attempt to hide a right wing agenda by starting a culture war. As the right has control over a section of the media, they can also misrepresent their own and their opponents position. That control, together with ineffective scrutiny by the non-partisan media, allows politicians to lie to an extent that would have been thought inconceivable a couple of decades earlier.

I think you need to add in one additional point here, and that is a public that is looking for radical solutions, by which I means solutions that move away from the status quo. The reason for this is not hard to understand: the worst recession since WWII following the financial crisis, stagnant and declining real wages, and geographical areas (rural, towns) that seem to be falling behind more dynamic cities.

Simon Wren-Lewis
Triangulation or bipartisanship does not work when one side goes off the scale

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

Willow904 wrote:

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The "idea" seems to be that if May thinks she will lose, the vote is put back until next week and then framed as "either my deal or a two year A50 extension".

Can't possibly see that going wrong, no sirree.

Um....isn't the 20th the last date for asking for an extension?

Yes, she will ask for one in the next few days I expect.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

Willow904 wrote:

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The "idea" seems to be that if May thinks she will lose, the vote is put back until next week and then framed as "either my deal or a two year A50 extension".

Can't possibly see that going wrong, no sirree.

Um....isn't the 20th the last date for asking for an extension?

Yes, she will ask for one in the next few days I expect.

citizenJA wrote:

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

Willow904 wrote: Um....isn't the 20th the last date for asking for an extension?

Yes, she will ask for one in the next few days I expect.

Can she do that without asking the House?

adam wrote:I can't see that there is any realistic chance of any extension being considered unless or until she has a clear and cleared plan - if she puts off the vote again, and goes asking for a short extension so once the vote is passed there is time to put it into effect, I think there is a very very strong likelihood that the EU27 will say no.

adam wrote:I can't see that there is any realistic chance of any extension being considered unless or until she has a clear and cleared plan - if she puts off the vote again, and goes asking for a short extension so once the vote is passed there is time to put it into effect, I think there is a very very strong likelihood that the EU27 will say no.

tinybgoat wrote:

adam wrote:I can't see that there is any realistic chance of any extension being considered unless or until she has a clear and cleared plan - if she puts off the vote again, and goes asking for a short extension so once the vote is passed there is time to put it into effect, I think there is a very very strong likelihood that the EU27 will say no.

There's also a possible problem of article 50 being revoked during a short extension period resulting in us remaining eu member but then not having elected MEPs.

edited: Possibly reads better with real words.

tinybgoat wrote:

adam wrote:I can't see that there is any realistic chance of any extension being considered unless or until she has a clear and cleared plan - if she puts off the vote again, and goes asking for a short extension so once the vote is passed there is time to put it into effect, I think there is a very very strong likelihood that the EU27 will say no.

There's also a possible problem of article 50 being revoked during a short extension period resulting in us remaining eu member but then not having elected MEPs.

edited: Possibly reads better with real words.

adam wrote:

tinybgoat wrote:

adam wrote:I can't see that there is any realistic chance of any extension being considered unless or until she has a clear and cleared plan - if she puts off the vote again, and goes asking for a short extension so once the vote is passed there is time to put it into effect, I think there is a very very strong likelihood that the EU27 will say no.

There's also a possible problem of article 50 being revoked during a short extension period resulting in us remaining eu member but then not having elected MEPs.

edited: Possibly reads better with real words.

Yes, agreed.

And there is also also the possibility of May squeaking her deal over the line by promising to quit before the next stage, and the EU seeing that they are about to face two more years of 'what we want or no deal and WTO terms' and declining even a technical extension. It would be fun to see parliament work through the night for a fortnight.

citizenJA wrote:

adam wrote: Yes, agreed.

And there is also also the possibility of May squeaking her deal over the line by promising to quit before the next stage, and the EU seeing that they are about to face two more years of 'what we want or no deal and WTO terms' and declining even a technical extension. It would be fun to see parliament work through the night for a fortnight.

Would Parliament be allowed to do so?
Five days ago an article in the Telegraph
'Mrs May's only option is to regain control of Brexit by shutting down Parliament '

Willow904 wrote:

tinybgoat wrote:

adam wrote:I can't see that there is any realistic chance of any extension being considered unless or until she has a clear and cleared plan - if she puts off the vote again, and goes asking for a short extension so once the vote is passed there is time to put it into effect, I think there is a very very strong likelihood that the EU27 will say no.

There's also a possible problem of article 50 being revoked during a short extension period resulting in us remaining eu member but then not having elected MEPs.

edited: Possibly reads better with real words.

I hadn't really considered that, it's certainly a potential problem but possibly not a problem the EU would mind having too much compared to the alternatives

adam wrote:---
There are still suggestions being made in BTL comments that MPs should just go home and let us leave next Friday without a deal.

I think my point is that the EU must know that the whole 'we want rights but not responsibilities' conversation is about to start all over again, and if getting this deal done involves May either agreeing to go or being outsted, she was at least eventually amenable to a deal the EU could live with. Do they want to make things easier for us if it's only to have us go back to saying 'our deal or no deal and WTO terms - you need us more than we need you'. And so on. (They probably do, they probably are a lot happier to get this stage banked and then rely on it to move forward on. I'm just moaning about two more years of bullshit).

Edited to add - just to say again - 'next Friday'. Yes, that's next Friday.

If MPs do not agree a Brexit deal this week, Theresa May expects to be offered a nine-month article 50 extension by the EU, ITV’s Robert Peston reports.

"Minister tells me @theresa_may expects EU to grant nine month Brexit delay. What would that mean for when (or indeed if) we leave the EU?"

Willow904 wrote:Yeah, that 9 months seems to have come out of nowhere.

I have thought perhaps the EU might offer a lengthy extension, just so if we turn it down and crash out with no deal we can't say it was their fault. (And also to put beyond doubt the need to elect MEPs). But 9 months is an odd timeframe. Would it be contingent on an election or referendum to break the parliament deadlock?

2m ago 15:35
John Bercow's statement

John Bercow, the Common[sic] speaker, is making a surprise statement to MPs.

He says there has been much speculation about another meaningful vote.

On 13 March Angela Eagle, the Labour MP, asked if it would be proper for the government to keep putting the same motion to a vote.

He says MPs from both sides of the House, and from both sides of the argument, have expressed their concerns to him their concerns about MPs voting on the same thing over and over again.

Erskine May, the parliamentary rulebook, says an issue that has been decided in substance cannot be brought back to the Commons. (Politics Live, Guardian)

2m ago 15:35
John Bercow's statement

John Bercow, the Common speaker, is making a surprise statement to MPs.

He says there has been much speculation about another meaningful vote.

On 13 March Angela Eagle, the Labour MP, asked if it would be proper for the government to keep putting the same motion to a vote.

He says MPs from both sides of the House, and from both sides of the argument, have expressed their concerns to him their concerns about MPs voting on the same thing over and over again.

Erskine May, the parliamentary rulebook, says an issue that has been decided in substance cannot be brought back to the Commons. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Bercow wants to summarise the chronology of events.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... eadf77fc30" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bercow rules out another vote on May's Brexit deal unless details change

He says this is not his final ruling on the matter.

Mark Francois, the Tory Brexiter, asks if Bercow’s ruling applies to amendments like the Cooper/Boles one, allowing MPs to take charge of the Commons timetable.



Responding to Mark Francois, Bercow says everything depends upon the circumstances. He says he would have to consider very carefully whether a proposition was the same.

Bercow suggests the “no repeat votes” rule could rule out further votes on some of the amendments championed by MPs who want parliament to take control of the Brexit process.(Politics Live, Guardian)

Bercow implies he will not allow a new vote on the Brexit deal unless the EU agrees to further changes to it.

This takes Bercow’s ruling much further than his original words implied. (Politics Live, Guardian)

James Cleverly, a Conservative, says if Bercow had made this ruling earlier, MPs might have realised that last week was their last chance to vote for the Brexit deal. They might have voted differently, he says. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Hugh Bennett
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5h5 hours ago
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May now offering Olly Robbins up as a sacrificial lamb to try to save her own skin

But it wasn't Olly Robbins who gave himself the authority to run Brexit as his own private fiefdom behind the backs of the Cabinet and even the Brexit Department itself

It was May

(((Dan Hodges)))
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Said last week he’d do this. When it was the Grieve amendment precedent wasn’t important. Suddenly it’s all important. Simply interpreting the rules upon the basis of what creates the most problems for the government. Not even pretending any more.