Tuesday 2nd April 2019

Post by **refitman** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:04 am

Morning all.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:27 am

Morning.

Great if depressing analysis on here last night.

Seems the most likely way beyond the impasse lies within the Cabinet now. Fingers crossed for some movement.

Having said that, is there any sense in Labour trying another No Confidence?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 11:57 am

Good morfternoon.

BBC News is reporting that John Bercow will probably not allow the Government to bring back the Withdrawal Agreement for a fourth time (T&C apply).

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 12:04 pm

Should Labour "win" a General Election, will they be the Party to preside over the break-up of the Union? (I'm thinking Scotland here.)

This thought came to me in bed last night, and made sense then but, in the cold light of day, I'm still trying to unravel it all. It involved possible coalition\confidence and supply issues. I may get back to you. Or I may hide. Or I may pretend that I never brought up the subject.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 12:37 pm

Well if Labour do win an election fairly comfortably it will involve winning some (more) Scottish seats back, in that situation there might be some grounds for optimism?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 1:00 pm

@AnatolyKasparov

It'a a bit of an "if", though, I feel.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 1:08 pm

Well of course, but maybe yearning for certainty when there actually isn't any is one of our current problems?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 1:24 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 3:11 pm

Jo Maugham QC
‏Verified account @JolyonMaugham

The Cooper/Letwin Bill looks like a dangerous distraction. First, the timescale is too long. Second, it is too vague. Third, it doesn’t specify what happens if the EU proposes a different date. Fourth, it doesn’t specify what happens if the EU imposes conditions for an extension. (Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 3:19 pm

Listening to Leo Varadkhar and Emmanuel Macron just now, I already get a sense of how it feels to be an EU outsider (or "like a Theresa May at an EU summit"). It's not a nice feeling.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 3:37 pm

Paul Brand
✔
@PaulBrandITV

Here we go again... hearing rumours of TV statement from PM. Just treat with care for now, this is unconfirmed.
23
3:31 PM - Apr 2, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)

What's that woman's name? Brenda (from Bristol)?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 3:53 pm

Paul Brand
✔
@PaulBrandITV

No 10 source says “no plans for statement”.
46
3:36 PM - Apr 2, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 3:54 pm

Mind you, having "no plans" hasn't stopped them so far . . .

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 4:22 pm

PorFavor wrote:Mind you, having "no plans" hasn't stopped them so far . . .

My first response was laughter because I like your writing
I can't put my thoughts together at the moment
I'll go fetch us some cocoa with honey on toast

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 4:26 pm

I'm distracting myself reading online Austen riffs for chrissake
It's tragic

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:24 pm

Newport closely resembles the entire country in terms of vote share, tipping 53% to 47% for Brexit in 2016.
Newport has been described as a leave city, despite almost as many people voting to remain.
This should be a reminder that contrary to much media coverage, opinion on the EU is not a dichotomy but a spectrum.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... emy-corbyn" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I like Dawn Foster's work a lot. I can't agree with her third sentence above based on what comes before it. I don't know if I'm just being pedantic pointing out there was only one question with two different answers: leave or remain. Having about as many people voting for one over the other can't indicate a spectrum of opinion on its own. I certainly don't mean to suggest people are their leave or remain EU vote cast in 2016. Why and how people cast their vote can't be explained through that single vote making the foolhardiness of government offering and orchestrating it as they did unconscionable.

The electoral exercise's conception, format and result interpretation are catastrophic blunders made by Tory governments. Opposition parties did attempt some safeguards though not enough. The referendum bill allowing the vote specifically indicated the result didn't oblige government doing anything with the result. Tory government liked the distraction of the referendum campaign and freaked out over the outcome. The whole damn thing was a sloppy, arrogant, unprincipled, incompetent and mendacious exercise.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:26 pm

So here we are

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:27 pm

Apparently the Cabinet has been meeting for over seven hours, with no end in sight. Sort of apposite really.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:36 pm

Rumours abound of a further vote on the deal tonight. What will be the substantive change? Customs union? Although it scuppers a US trade deal, it would achieve a major goal of extracting the City of London from EU oversight and protect the opacity of our overseas dependent territories tax havens.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:38 pm

Jon Craig
@joncraig
I’d say Govt is planning to table Brexit motion in the Commons tonight, since there are dozens of interventions from Tory MPs in Geoffrey Clifton-Brown’s adjournment debate on business rates reform, clearly to keep it going until 7-7.30pm to allow time for a motion to be tabled.
5:20 PM · Apr 2, 2019

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PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:42 pm

How come Penny Mordaunt has left the Cabinet Meeting but no-one else appears to have left yet? We're told that the Meeting is over (and was when she (Penny Morbid) left) so I'm intrigued. And what are all the others doing in there?

(Reporters judged that the meeting was over when Ministerial cars got ready to collect people - who've yet to emerge. Apparently, cars are required in order that Ministers can avoid questions from aforementioned reporters. Since they rarely answer questions that are asked, though . . .)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:46 pm

Boles take aim...

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Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:56 pm

Prudent anonym sneakily left Cabinet meeting early (5,8).

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:57 pm

PorFavor wrote:How come Penny Mordaunt has left the Cabinet Meeting but no-one else appears to have left yet? We're told that the Meeting is over (and was when she (Penny Morbid) left) so I'm intrigued. And what are all the others doing in there?

(Reporters judged that the meeting was over when Ministerial cars got ready to collect people - who've yet to emerge. Apparently, cars are required in order that Ministers can avoid questions from aforementioned reporters. Since they rarely answer questions that are asked, though . . .)

We shouldn't have to guess what our government(s) are playing at, you know?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 5:57 pm

Willow904 wrote:
Jon Craig
@joncraig
I’d say Govt is planning to table Brexit motion in the Commons tonight, since there are dozens of interventions from Tory MPs in Geoffrey Clifton-Brown’s adjournment debate on business rates reform, clearly to keep it going until 7-7.30pm to allow time for a motion to be tabled.
5:20 PM · Apr 2, 2019
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apparently the Commons has now adjourned.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:01 pm

"The common sense solution to the Brexit crisis comes from business, not politics"
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/04/02/th ... -politics/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I think it would basically involve revoking article 50, & staying in EU while negotiating future relationship, then triggering article 50 again, which would go against how it's been scheduled so far.
Interesting, though.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:01 pm

Prime Minister's statement is back on (Sky News).

I'd prefer to hear Jeremy Hardy Speaks to the Nation.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:06 pm

I can see a lectern and two flags but no PM as yet...

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:06 pm

@PaulfromYorkshire

Thanks - you answered what was going to be my question!

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:10 pm

I can't see the EU granting an extension on those terms.

And let's put the blame on Labour.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:10 pm

Well, well

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:11 pm

PorFavor wrote:I can't see the EU granting an extension on those terms.

And let's put the blame on Labour.

Exactly what I was thinking.

Corbyn needs to remind May that they didn't get a majority so that they don't have to keep referring back to the manifesto.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:14 pm

Well that was a bit something or nothing.

Probably nothing.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:16 pm

RogerOThornhill

Yes - never got the manifesto thing, for various reasons.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 6:24 pm

The BBC seems to think it's Something.

I'm not so sure. Still feels like stalling to me.

Personally I don't see why she needs Corbyn to put WA + Customs Union (or whatever) to the house. If she wants to shift her red lines, she can do so. And if she can get the Commons to agree by 12th April, she has a good chance of leaving on 22nd May. If we don't pass the WA, agree to take part in EU elections or revoke article 50 by 12th April, the EU would be pretty insane to let us faff around any longer. We may get between 12th April and 22nd May to prepare for no deal, but I think that'll be it.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:06 pm

Willow904 wrote:The BBC seems to think it's Something.

I'm not so sure. Still feels like stalling to me.

Personally I don't see why she needs Corbyn to put WA + Customs Union (or whatever) to the house. If she wants to shift her red lines, she can do so. And if she can get the Commons to agree by 12th April, she has a good chance of leaving on 22nd May. If we don't pass the WA, agree to take part in EU elections or revoke article 50 by 12th April, the EU would be pretty insane to let us faff around any longer. We may get between 12th April and 22nd May to prepare for no deal, but I think that'll be it.

I thought there was a change of tone and emphasis.

She may well have decided to do what you say, but it would be useful to her to present it as compromise with the opposition rather than just shifting.

That could also be useful to Labour if they are very careful indeed.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:17 pm

Government is desperate

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:17 pm

What will be revealing will be the reactions from the rest of the Cabinet when they get their phones back.

If May's approach to Corbyn is anything like genuine, there should be some ERG type resignations.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:19 pm

Jacob Rees Mogg: “What was announced today was an attempt to overturn Brexit in an attempt to do a deal with the socialists. It’s very serious.”

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:21 pm

Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
46 minutes ago

Labour source tells me the PM's statement was the first Jeremy Corbyn heard of the offer to sit down for talks.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:29 pm

Seems a transparent attempt at shifting the blame to Labour to me.

If the PM was sincere she wouldn't *still* be trying to resurrect the zombie that is now her WA.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:32 pm

Insist talk be conducted in the open with other colleagues

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:34 pm

Sky News Breaking
@SkyNewsBreak

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he is "very happy" to meet Prime Minister Theresa May after she offered to meet him to agree a plan which allows the UK to leave the EU with a deal

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:56 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Sky News Breaking
@SkyNewsBreak

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he is "very happy" to meet Prime Minister Theresa May after she offered to meet him to agree a plan which allows the UK to leave the EU with a deal

He said that avoiding the EU elections isn't at the top of his agenda. So, if Theresa May wants a "rush job" she might end up being out of luck.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 7:58 pm

PorFavor wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Sky News Breaking
@SkyNewsBreak

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he is "very happy" to meet Prime Minister Theresa May after she offered to meet him to agree a plan which allows the UK to leave the EU with a deal
He said that avoiding the EU elections isn't at the top of his agenda. So, if Theresa May wants a "rush job" she might end up being out of luck.

I like his continued emphasis on the priority of protecting everyone

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 8:12 pm

Boris Johnson, on Sky News, is already concentrating on blaming Labour for anything that now happens.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 8:17 pm

I like this one...

Sam Coates Times
‏
Verified account

@SamCoatesTimes
Follow Follow @SamCoatesTimes
More
One Tory MP brexiteer reacts

“A new low. We delegate the decision making on this to the man we've spent four years saying isn't fit to govern. You couldn't make it up. Let's give him the keys to screw our colleagues in marginal seats. Seriously?”

7:13 PM - 2 Apr 201

Wonder if he voted for May's deal? If not then it's his own fault...

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 8:20 pm

Government's lengthy cabinet meeting today sounds dire

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 8:21 pm

@RogerOThornhill

The use of the phrase "delegate decision making"? More subtle than Boris Johnson, but the same message. Labour needs to be very careful.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 02 Apr, 2019 8:31 pm