Monday 8th April 2019

Post by **refitman** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 7:04 am

Morning all.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:22 am

Good morning, all.

Nothing happening?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:28 am

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-08/is- ... w-default/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Is cancelling Brexit the Prime Minister’s new default?

Robert Peston is quite the optimist. Unfortunately, I'm not sure his Brexit predictions track record is all that strong.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:56 am

Good morning, everyone
Keyboard finally went belly-up

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:59 am

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Thread: We've done a UCL-YouGov, 5000+ UK voters – asked people to rank outcomes for Brexit.
@HuffPostUK
article here (link: https://bit.ly/2UGHgtK" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) bit.ly/2UGHgtK

Main pts: OVERALL, No Deal is LEAST preferred outcome (despite what ERG say), but it is the MOST preferred outcome for LEAVE voters. 1/6

I think I may have done this YouGov survey! I'm one of the minority of remain voters who picked a soft Brexit as the best outcome. I think this is driven by a deep distrust of our ruling classes. I rather like the idea of them being rule takers rather than rule makers. At least for a while. It'll be good for them (and us).

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:08 am

Willow904 wrote:https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-08/is- ... w-default/
Is cancelling Brexit the Prime Minister’s new default?
Robert Peston is quite the optimist. Unfortunately, I'm not sure his Brexit predictions track record is all that strong.

...the PM is now explicitly saying the choice is a binary one between some version of her negotiated deal and not leaving at all (that is what she said in her sofa chat on Sunday).

She's said this before. Is she threatening everyone with their heart set on some kind of Brexit to vote aye on a variation of her arrangement or she'll revoke Article 50?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:15 am

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak

PM heading to Berlin tmrw to meet Merkel

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:15 am

However, support for no-deal is being disproportionately driven by those who would probably be least affected by its consequences. The more financially secure Leave voters were, the research suggests, the more they supported a no-deal outcome and the less they worried about its impact on the economy.

In other words, core Tory voters.

if the Tories are to survive Brexit we are either leaving with no deal or May needs a way to blame not leaving with no deal on the opposition. This isn't exactly a trap for Labour, however, as the majority view in the country as a whole is against leaving with no deal.

In this context, May's talk of "no Brexit" is a last ditch effort to bully Tory Brexiters to come behind her tweaked WA and a signal to Tory voters that it's this Brexit or no Brexit at all because the nasty opposition in the Commons are blocking their preferred option of "no deal" Brexit. Oh and has the extra effect of giving remainers like Peston hope that Brexit might not happen so they are extra miffed if Labour do a deal to get Brexit through.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:17 am

citizenJA wrote:Good morning, everyone
Keyboard finally went belly-up

Yet strangely you're still typing. Am I missing something?!

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:18 am

citizenJA wrote:
Willow904 wrote:https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-08/is- ... w-default/
Is cancelling Brexit the Prime Minister’s new default?
Robert Peston is quite the optimist. Unfortunately, I'm not sure his Brexit predictions track record is all that strong.
...the PM is now explicitly saying the choice is a binary one between some version of her negotiated deal and not leaving at all (that is what she said in her sofa chat on Sunday).
She's said this before. Is she threatening everyone with their heart set on some kind of Brexit to vote aye on a variation of her arrangement or she'll revoke Article 50?

Yes.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:31 am

Willow904 wrote:
Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Thread: We've done a UCL-YouGov, 5000+ UK voters – asked people to rank outcomes for Brexit.
@HuffPostUK
article here (link: https://bit.ly/2UGHgtK" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) bit.ly/2UGHgtK

Main pts: OVERALL, No Deal is LEAST preferred outcome (despite what ERG say), but it is the MOST preferred outcome for LEAVE voters. 1/6
I think I may have done this YouGov survey! I'm one of the minority of remain voters who picked a soft Brexit as the best outcome. I think this is driven by a deep distrust of our ruling classes. I rather like the idea of them being rule takers rather than rule makers. At least for a while. It'll be good for them (and us).

Those our ruling class can rule will suffer. But they'll do that anyway so what the hell. EU member states are sovereign, each controlling their domestic arrangements. Hopefully there's a better government we can return not hellbent on tyranny.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:35 am

Willow904 wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Good morning, everyone
Keyboard finally went belly-up
Yet strangely you're still typing. Am I missing something?!

onscreen keyboard

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:51 am

Its still hard to avoid the conclusion that May pretty much maximised the vote on "her deal" last time round.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 12:05 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Its still hard to avoid the conclusion that May pretty much maximised the vote on "her deal" last time round.

The unlikelihood of it working doesn't affect the likelihood of it being her plan, which continues to be the same plan as far as I can tell.

I think the hints she will legislate for a Customs Union to get Labour votes on board, tying the hands of her replacement, is in the same vein as previous efforts to convince her Brexiteers they aren't going to get better than her deal. On past form, it's hard to say if she'd actually do that, though, or revoke. Which is why it's unlikely to work, of course.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 12:08 pm

Willow904 wrote:---
if the Tories are to survive Brexit we are either leaving with no deal or May needs a way to blame not leaving with no deal on the opposition. This isn't exactly a trap for Labour, however, as the majority view in the country as a whole is against leaving with no deal.

In this context, May's talk of "no Brexit" is a last ditch effort to bully Tory Brexiters to come behind her tweaked WA and a signal to Tory voters that it's this Brexit or no Brexit at all because the nasty opposition in the Commons are blocking their preferred option of "no deal" Brexit. Oh and has the extra effect of giving remainers like Peston hope that Brexit might not happen so they are extra miffed if Labour do a deal to get Brexit through.

(cJA edit)
exactly what May's 2 minute talk was about
that inveigling way she spoke about Labour after dedicating years reviling them

Post by **adam** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 1:25 pm

Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Its still hard to avoid the conclusion that May pretty much maximised the vote on "her deal" last time round.
The unlikelihood of it working doesn't affect the likelihood of it being her plan, which continues to be the same plan as far as I can tell.

I think the hints she will legislate for a Customs Union to get Labour votes on board, tying the hands of her replacement, is in the same vein as previous efforts to convince her Brexiteers they aren't going to get better than her deal. On past form, it's hard to say if she'd actually do that, though, or revoke. Which is why it's unlikely to work, of course.

If she's ruled out a further or confirmatory referendum and if she's ruled out the custom's union then, unless she's thinking about some funny wordplay around 'the customs union' versus 'a customs union', I really can't imagine what she's talking to Labour about.

Except I can, she's just telling them they have to support the withdrawal agreement.

Post by **adam** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 1:29 pm

The ERG's latest plan seems to be to hold an indicative vote of no confidence in May, even though they can't get rid of her, to try to show the rest of the EU she isn't in control and therefore can't make a deal and therefore we leave with no deal on Friday.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 1:51 pm

I expect most non-ERG Tories will have nothing to do with any such thing, bet they never thought of that eh.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 4:34 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... candidates" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tories fielding local election candidates in record number of seats

"Rumours of death are highly exaggerated";certainly expect loses here ,I hope the unexpected.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 4:51 pm

"many of (Labour's) contested areas being Tory heartlands" - I think they missed out an "un-" there.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 5:08 pm

Afternoon all. Been preparing myself for a talk I'm giving tonight...

Beth Rigby
‏
Verified account

@BethRigby
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NEW: Told the Exec of the 1922 are due to go to No 10 imminently to meet with PM.

3:55 PM - 8 Apr 2019

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 8:45 pm

Good morfternoon.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 8:48 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Afternoon all. Been preparing myself for a talk I'm giving tonight...

Beth Rigby
‏
Verified account

@BethRigby
Follow Follow @BethRigby
More
NEW: Told the Exec of the 1922 are due to go to No 10 imminently to meet with PM.

3:55 PM - 8 Apr 2019

I'm a bit late for this - but I hope the talk goes well. What's the topic?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 9:24 pm

I've a new keyboard

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 9:25 pm

Pleeze Sir Graham Brady Sir, can we have anuvver go to get rid of the prime minister?
We happy few can reright the course of history: a letter wot Mark Francois rote
John Crace
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... e-minister" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 9:44 pm

Cooper Letwin passes in Lords.

Corbyn says May hasn't shifted on red lines.

Where are we heading?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 9:55 pm

Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, also said the government was still trying to persuade Labour that a customs union was really contained in May’s deal “if only we looked a bit harder”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -more-time" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:02 pm

Voting on Cooper-Letwin in the Commons now!

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:03 pm

Commons now voting on Lords Amendments 2 and 3 #EUWithdrawal5Bill

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:06 pm

Robin Walker says Government supports the 3 Amendments made in the Lords.
The 1st Amendment (a technical one) is nodded through.
Bercow takes the other 2 Lords Amendments together, & the Commons will vote on accepting them now.
Result in 15 mins

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:08 pm

Robin Walker has some amusing anagrams BTW

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:19 pm

Lords 2 and 3 passed

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:19 pm

Now voting on Cash amendment to Lords 5

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:28 pm

Lords amendment 5 means that nothing would prevent Ministers from agreeing to an extension not set out in the bill as long as it is to at least 22nd of May.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:29 pm

Cash seeks to wreck that. Obv because 23 May is the Euro elections.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:29 pm

Cash seems likely to lose.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:35 pm

Cash thrashed.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:36 pm

Now voting on the amendment

Post by **adam** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:49 pm

Political Declaration, Paragraph 4

The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms. It must also ensure the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and the protection of its internal market, while respecting the result of the 2016 referendum including with regard to the development of its independent trade policy and the ending of free movement of people between the Union and the United Kingdom.

I'd be very interested to hear how the government get from that to 'a custom's union is contained in May's deal'. The only thing I can think of is that it is effectively the status quo during the transition period and nothing to do with the future relationship. It's ever ever so close to a flat out blatant lie.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 10:57 pm

Lords Amendment 5 passed 390-81 so Cooper Bill now goes for Royal Assent.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:13 pm

Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 08 Apr, 2019 11:34 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Lords Amendment 5 passed 390-81 so Cooper Bill now goes for Royal Assent.

Done!

23m ago
23:11
The legislation to extend the Brexit process in a bid to avoid a no-deal scenario has received royal assent and has become law.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 09 Apr, 2019 5:52 am

Facts shouldn't be ignored in a never before non-Labour district there is a real.possibity they will lose and it is the older keeping the party alive.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 09 Apr, 2019 5:59 am

At least Shami gets it over not being the Corbyn party,the sooner the better for the rest.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 09 Apr, 2019 6:09 am

Especially real/true keeptheToriesinforeverists.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 09 Apr, 2019 6:13 am

Purity is the ultimate weakness