Thursday 30th May 2019

[refitman]

Morning all.

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

Jeremy Corbyn has further muddied the waters on Labour’s line on a second referendum by suggesting such a vote may not include the option to remain.

Challenged in Dublin on whether Labour envisioned an in-out referendum, he said: “It would be on the basis of whatever we have succeeded in negotiating.” (Politics Live, Guardian)

[HindleA]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-p ... r-everyone" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... nel-report" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

https://www.rnib.org.uk/taking-to-the-streets" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/educatio ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

Good morfternoon.

Jeremy Corbyn has further muddied the waters on Labour’s line on a second referendum by suggesting such a vote may not include the option to remain.

Challenged in Dublin on whether Labour envisioned an in-out referendum, he said: “It would be on the basis of whatever we have succeeded in negotiating.” (Politics Live, Guardian)

How does that comment imply that remain won't be an option?

Especially since JC is also reported as saying that the ballot *shouldn't* include no deal?

[Willow904]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKCN1SZ2RI" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He told reporters in Dublin that Labour would negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU that would be put to the public, the Irish Times newspaper reported.

“The referendum would be on a negotiated deal or alternatives to that. It’s not a re-run of 2016,” Corbyn said.

This would mean winning a General Election with a Brexit policy of negotiating a customs union Brexit with the EU. Could Labour win with such a policy in its manifesto? It's not hugely different from what we were looking at with May's rejected WA. A customs union negates the opportunity to negotiate our own trade deals, while still losing all of the economic advantages of being in the single market, not to mention Ireland is still a problem. For there to be no Irish border, NI would have to stay in the single market so there will still be some sort of border in the Irish Sea. Corbyn just inherits all the unresolvable barriers to Brexit that destroyed Theresa May's premiership and is threatening to tear the Tory party clean apart. Six weeks of him trying to explain how he would square the circle May couldn't doesnt bode well for Labour's chances. And with the the likes of Hammond preferring a GE to no deal Brexit this is moving into the realms of the possible now. Personally I think Labour would be better off with offering an immediate referendum between the current WA and remain with a view to campaigning for remain for all of the above reasons. Continuing to pretend there's a good way to leave the EU without encountering all the same problems May has is either deeply dishonest or deeply delusional.

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

Jeremy Corbyn has further muddied the waters on Labour’s line on a second referendum by suggesting such a vote may not include the option to remain.

Challenged in Dublin on whether Labour envisioned an in-out referendum, he said: “It would be on the basis of whatever we have succeeded in negotiating.” (Politics Live, Guardian)

How does that comment imply that remain won't be an option?

Especially since JC is also reported as saying that the ballot *shouldn't* include no deal?

I think that his answer, which amounts to "it all depends", implies just that.




Edited - typo

[citizenJA]

Good morning, everyone.

[citizenJA]

“Faced with the threat of no deal and a prime minister with no mandate, the only way out of the Brexit crisis ripping our country apart is now to go back to the people,” [Jeremy Corbyn] said, speaking ahead of his visit to Ireland.

“Let the people decide the country’s future, either in a general election or through a public vote on any deal agreed by parliament. For Labour any outcome has to work for our whole country, not just one side of this deliberately inflamed divide.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Willow904]

The mixed messages from leading figures must cease. When Corbyn eventually makes his big speech committing Labour to a new stance, it should be done with gusto and it should be unequivocal

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So says Owen Jones and he's right, I think.

Picking over the bones of yet another carefully worded ambivalent statement for clues and hints as to intent isn't going to win back voters seduced by the clear cut anti-Brexit / environmental message of the Greens.

McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry have all come out for a referendum with a remain option very clearly. Those voters who really want to leave aren't going to be voting Labour now, if they ever were (which I doubt). So why is Corbyn still prevaricating? I would suggest it's because he's an honest man and in his heart he wants to leave and that, to be frank, is the problem and has always been the problem.

[citizenJA]

Raab can save his breath
He and his party squandered their credibility

[PaulfromYorkshire]

@Willow

I can't fully agree with your analysis. There are plenty of areas across Yorkshire that voted over 50% for Labour in 2017 and over 50% Brexit last week.

[PorFavor]

The mixed messages from leading figures must cease. When Corbyn eventually makes his big speech committing Labour to a new stance, it should be done with gusto and it should be unequivocal

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So says Owen Jones and he's right, I think.

Picking over the bones of yet another carefully worded ambivalent statement for clues and hints as to intent isn't going to win back voters seduced by the clear cut anti-Brexit / environmental message of the Greens.

McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry have all come out for a referendum with a remain option very clearly. Those voters who really want to leave aren't going to be voting Labour now, if they ever were (which I doubt). So why is Corbyn still prevaricating? I would suggest it's because he's an honest man and in his heart he wants to leave and that, to be frank, is the problem and has always been the problem.

He's saying that if Labour gets what it wants, it won't be necessary to have "remain" as an option in any second (or third, if you prefer) referendum. Therefore, he's working to obtain a landscape where "remain" won't figure at all.

And, yes, he's sticking to his principles, but whether that equates to being honest with the Labour Party membership and the wider electorate is debatable.





Edited - a comma too far

[citizenJA]

It’s clear that Labour is now pivoting to a pro-referendum stance in backing a public vote on any deal parliament agrees. Corbyn privately knows it must be done. While there is some internal resistance within both his machine and the parliamentary party – and it’s easy to empathise with those who fear another referendum – the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, is among those pushing for a decisive shift in political strategy. That will surely succeed – the game is up here – even if there remains no majority in parliament for a referendum, but a political reorientation must be spelt out in primary colours, or the party might as well not bother.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
- Owen Jones

[citizenJA]

I like Jones's Ed Miliband suggestion

[PorFavor]

Israel is to have another election.

[PorFavor]

I like Jones's Ed Miliband suggestion

But would Ed Miliband still have time for his "Chaos" website and his "Podcast"? They're brilliant.

[citizenJA]

I like Jones's Ed Miliband suggestion

But would Ed Miliband still have time for his "Chaos" website and his "Podcast"? They're brilliant.

during lunchtime

[citizenJA]

and after a brief nap

[citizenJA]

Current events are exhausting and unproductive. Effort could be better channeled in worthy projects requiring attention. This is time and resources none of us get back. I resent the hell out of it.

[citizenJA]

@Sky'sGoneOut
I liked your posts yesterday regarding the spider and the wasp.
I think I know the spider.

[Willow904]

@Willow

I can't fully agree with your analysis. There are plenty of areas across Yorkshire that voted over 50% for Labour in 2017 and over 50% Brexit last week.

Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry weren't openly supporting a referendum with a remain option in 2017. The political landscape has changed. With the Tories, always the far more Eurosceptic of the two main parties, struggling to deliver Brexit, Labour, with many more pro-EU MPs, are not likely to attract support from those for whom Brexit is a top priority, especially with a customs union policy similar to that which destroyed May. Meanwhile there are surely leave voters for whom Brexit isn't a top priority who can be persuaded to stick with Labour for other reasons even if Labour offer a referendum with a remain option. If not, if Corbyn sticks with his 2017 Brexit policy, I think there's a good chance a lot of those votes lost to the Greens and Libdems in the EU elections won't come back. Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry clearly feel a change of stance is vital and they will have access to private polling we don't see. I think their instinct that a big, bold move is necessary is right and that Corbyn dragging his feet is damaging. I guess we'll just have to wait and see who wins out and if Corbyn gives the big, unequivocal speech Owen Jones now thinks is needed or whether he sticks with the convoluted waffle.

Either way, Labour are in trouble. The divide between leave and remain has grown, not shrunk, leaving their mission to bring the two sides together in tatters. Exactly why I was never a supporter of the "people's vote" campaign. Once the possibility of remaining after all becomes set in people's minds, as the push for a further referendum has done, we are left with a situation where we are all forced to pick a side and I don't think Labour can avoid doing so any longer. If they'd tried from the beginning to forge a middle-way, outside the EU but inside the single market, it may have been possible to forge a consensus among those not polarised to the extremes of no deal Brexit or no change remain, but Labour's policy was always too skewed towards the hard leave vote to appeal to the largest range of voters in the middle. And besides, it would probably have only been possible for a party in power. So it's May's failure to find that consensus that has ultimately brought us here. And, boy, what a mess 'here' is!

[citizenJA]

Current events are exhausting and unproductive. Effort could be better channeled in worthy projects requiring attention. This is time and resources none of us get back. I resent the hell out of it.

I'm referring to Brexit as exhausting and unproductive

[AnatolyKasparov]

Israel is to have another election.

Because the last one went so well.......

[HindleA]

X

(automated voting response to election mention)

[AnatolyKasparov]

I like Jones's Ed Miliband suggestion

Which was?

[citizenJA]

I like Jones's Ed Miliband suggestion

Which was?

A cabinet position

[PaulfromYorkshire]

@Willow

I can't fully agree with your analysis. There are plenty of areas across Yorkshire that voted over 50% for Labour in 2017 and over 50% Brexit last week.

Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry weren't openly supporting a referendum with a remain option in 2017. The political landscape has changed. With the Tories, always the far more Eurosceptic of the two main parties, struggling to deliver Brexit, Labour, with many more pro-EU MPs, are not likely to attract support from those for whom Brexit is a top priority, especially with a customs union policy similar to that which destroyed May. Meanwhile there are surely leave voters for whom Brexit isn't a top priority who can be persuaded to stick with Labour for other reasons even if Labour offer a referendum with a remain option. If not, if Corbyn sticks with his 2017 Brexit policy, I think there's a good chance a lot of those votes lost to the Greens and Libdems in the EU elections won't come back. Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry clearly feel a change of stance is vital and they will have access to private polling we don't see. I think their instinct that a big, bold move is necessary is right and that Corbyn dragging his feet is damaging. I guess we'll just have to wait and see who wins out and if Corbyn gives the big, unequivocal speech Owen Jones now thinks is needed or whether he sticks with the convoluted waffle.

Either way, Labour are in trouble. The divide between leave and remain has grown, not shrunk, leaving their mission to bring the two sides together in tatters. Exactly why I was never a supporter of the "people's vote" campaign. Once the possibility of remaining after all becomes set in people's minds, as the push for a further referendum has done, we are left with a situation where we are all forced to pick a side and I don't think Labour can avoid doing so any longer. If they'd tried from the beginning to forge a middle-way, outside the EU but inside the single market, it may have been possible to forge a consensus among those not polarised to the extremes of no deal Brexit or no change remain, but Labour's policy was always too skewed towards the hard leave vote to appeal to the largest range of voters in the middle. And besides, it would probably have only been possible for a party in power. So it's May's failure to find that consensus that has ultimately brought us here. And, boy, what a mess 'here' is!

As ever we basically agree.

It will be a lot easier for Labour if the Tories choose, say, Johnson. Then, surely, Labour come out for Remain as the least worst option for their supporters. No ifs no buts. And I agree at that point voters who ditch Labour for Brexit are probably unreachable.

If a "moderate" Tory leader emerges, Labour may still have a decision to make. The talks could resume and agreement could be achieved within hours if the will were there. The WAB could be through the House within days. Would a Referendum still make sense? And if so would it be the e.g. Hunt Deal vs No Deal or vs Remain?

[RogerOThornhill]

Afternoon all.

Another morning without power as a new fusebox where all the gubbins that accumulates over the years is incorporated into one neat box.

Would a Referendum still make sense? And if so would it be the e.g. Hunt Deal vs No Deal or vs Remain?

Only if it was stipulated that a result would be valid if one option got > 50% otherwise we could have a 40/30/30 result (or worse) where a minority got their wish.

I could foresee a situation where we leave with a not particularly good deal, and then then have another referendum to stay left vs rejoin in another few years.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I like Jones's Ed Miliband suggestion

Which was?

A cabinet position

Been mooted for a while, EM might be tempted but I think he is enjoying time out of frontline politics (not least with his young kids)

[Willow904]

As ever we basically agree.

It will be a lot easier for Labour if the Tories choose, say, Johnson. Then, surely, Labour come out for Remain as the least worst option for their supporters. No ifs no buts. And I agree at that point voters who ditch Labour for Brexit are probably unreachable.

If a "moderate" Tory leader emerges, Labour may still have a decision to make. The talks could resume and agreement could be achieved within hours if the will were there. The WAB could be through the House within days. Would a Referendum still make sense? And if so would it be the e.g. Hunt Deal vs No Deal or vs Remain?

A referendum has never made sense if your objective is to leave the EU. That's kind of the whole point.

[adam]

snip Then, surely, Labour come out for Remain as the least worst option for their supporters.

I see absolutely nothing at all in what is going on at the moment to suggest any possibility of that happening.

I've kind of had enough, after what he's saying today. I completely support the idea that whilst you are not in power you will do everything you can to limit the government to the least worst solution. I completely reject the idea that you can't seek a mandate in a new general election for what you actually want. If Labour go into a General Election actually wanting to take us out of the EU - now we are here and push has definitely come to shove and this is it - then I think something like last week's vote will happen again. I'd be amazed if they didn't see mass desertions from their candidate base.

I also think that they are legitimising the delusional nonsense of the leave campaign by saying we can achieve things that are really, really not on the table. It might be cake and eat it light but it's still cake and eat it.

If they become the reality party - this is the deal take it or leave it -and propose to put that to the electorate in a confirmatory vote then that's a way forward. There's no problem, within that, of saying 'if you vote for the withdrawal agreement then we will proceed with our plans for a closer association than the Conservatives had envisaged'. That's the only way I can see to try to continue to walk the tightrope.

If they pursue what he's saying today they are going to be the third party of leave.

[Willow904]

snip Then, surely, Labour come out for Remain as the least worst option for their supporters.

I see absolutely nothing at all in what is going on at the moment to suggest any possibility of that happening.

I've kind of had enough, after what he's saying today. I completely support the idea that whilst you are not in power you will do everything you can to limit the government to the least worst solution. I completely reject the idea that you can't seek a mandate in a new general election for what you actually want. If Labour go into a General Election actually wanting to take us out of the EU - now we are here and push has definitely come to shove and this is it - then I think something like last week's vote will happen again. I'd be amazed if they didn't see mass desertions from their candidate base.

I also think that they are legitimising the delusional nonsense of the leave campaign by saying we can achieve things that are really, really not on the table. It might be cake and eat it light but it's still cake and eat it.

If they become the reality party - this is the deal take it or leave it -and propose to put that to the electorate in a confirmatory vote then that's a way forward. There's no problem, within that, of saying 'if you vote for the withdrawal agreement then we will proceed with our plans for a closer association than the Conservatives had envisaged'. That's the only way I can see to try to continue to walk the tightrope.

If they pursue what he's saying today they are going to be the third party of leave.

Yes, exactly this.

The question is whether this is thrashed out once and for all right now, with resignations from shadow cabinet and a leadership challenge if Corbyn doesn't shift or whether it will be allowed to drift. I suspect the answer depends on how likely an imminent GE is looking.

[gilsey]

What Adam said.

[PorFavor]

Afternoon all.

Another morning without power as a new fusebox where all the gubbins that accumulates over the years is incorporated into one neat box.

Would a Referendum still make sense? And if so would it be the e.g. Hunt Deal vs No Deal or vs Remain?

Only if it was stipulated that a result would be valid if one option got > 50% otherwise we could have a 40/30/30 result (or worse) where a minority got their wish.

I could foresee a situation where we leave with a not particularly good deal, and then then have another referendum to stay left vs rejoin in another few years.

I think I've mentioned before that the margin for winning (and one certainly needs to be set out) would be a big bone of contention in the event of another referendum (which would be portrayed by some people as a simple rerun of the last one - whatever the actual questions turn out to be).


Edited to add - "moving the goalposts" and all that

[gilsey]

If a "moderate" Tory leader emerges, Labour may still have a decision to make. The talks could resume and agreement could be achieved within hours if the will were there. The WAB could be through the House within days. Would a Referendum still make sense? And if so would it be the e.g. Hunt Deal vs No Deal or vs Remain?

It would make sense to MPs who don't want to leave the EU, surely, and make them more likely to vote for it. Would there be a majority without them?

[gilsey]

Tory party donations down by millions of pounds, figures reveal. Party accepted £3.68m in first three months of 2019, down from £7.4m in previous quarter

[AnatolyKasparov]

People are getting rather aerated here, but about what exactly?

Corbyn has also said no deal shouldn't be on the ballot, so another referendum would be between whatever Labour negotiated and........well??

[PaulfromYorkshire]

If a "moderate" Tory leader emerges, Labour may still have a decision to make. The talks could resume and agreement could be achieved within hours if the will were there. The WAB could be through the House within days. Would a Referendum still make sense? And if so would it be the e.g. Hunt Deal vs No Deal or vs Remain?

It would make sense to MPs who don't want to leave the EU, surely, and make them more likely to vote for it. Would there be a majority without them?

Yes. But you'd be asking them to vote for a bill so they could then vote against it....

It's a mess alright but I still think the next steps depend massively on who becomes Tory leader. I feel a bit outnumbered, but I think Corbyn is right to see if it's someone he can negotiate with and find compromise. If it's Johnson, Raab, McVey, Leadsom it's a different matter.

[Willow904]

Yes... Well?

Everyone's fed up of guessing. If he can't say the words "referendum" and "remain" people who want a referendum because they want to remain are likely to vote elsewhere. That's not being "aerated", it's just stating it how it is, as recognised by much of the front bench and Owen Jones.

Personally I would accept leaving the EU if we remained in the single market but that's something else Corbyn is unable to say. And the EU elections have clearly shown that the remain vote is solidifying behind the idea of a referendum, so I'm well in the minority.

It really is simple, if the mountain won't come to Muhammad, then Muhammad must go to the mountain. Corbyn has had more than long enough to convince voters of his strategy and he has failed. No more.

Edited to add that was a response to AK.
@PaulfromYorkshire - you may well be right about why Corbyn refuses to back a referendum but I'm not sure how that helps Labour with those voters who want one.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I mean, one gets the impression now that quite a lot of remainers want any referendum to be a straight choice between no deal and staying in the EU.

That is.........one hell of a risk, especially if the remain campaign is no better than in 2016

[PaulfromYorkshire]

As ever I think we all want more or less the same thing. The route there is less clear than ever. Let's not fall out

[Willow904]

I mean, one gets the impression now that quite a lot of remainers want any referendum to be a straight choice between no deal and staying in the EU.

That is.........one hell of a risk, especially if the remain campaign is no better than in 2016

If that's what they're saying, but I'm pretty certain no one on the Labour frontbench, like Starmer, has been saying that and have, indeed, been very clear about the choice being between a deal or remain. We already have a WA agreed, that MPs won't pass. Putting it to a referendum against remain makes more sense than continuing to pretend we can make the Irish problem go away.

[HindleA]

Given 60 odd percent didn't vote,I certainly have no idea what their view was if any,I also have no idea how many that usually vote Labour but didn't would return or not in a GE(of course in general I have no idea,but that is taken as read)As to contributions to the Tories etc,they could have £0,a flea infested dog as their only "lay"member and got -15% last week,they still form the Government.

[HindleA]

Apologies to flea infested dogs.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I mean, one gets the impression now that quite a lot of remainers want any referendum to be a straight choice between no deal and staying in the EU.

That is.........one hell of a risk, especially if the remain campaign is no better than in 2016

If that's what they're saying, but I'm pretty certain no one on the Labour frontbench, like Starmer, has been saying that and have, indeed, been very clear about the choice being between a deal or remain. We already have a WA agreed, that MPs won't pass. Putting it to a referendum against remain makes more sense than continuing to pretend we can make the Irish problem go away.

Not many Labour people saying this so far, true.

Vince Cable said he wanted no deal on a second referendum ballot though........

[PorFavor]

I don't detect tension between any of us here. Some posters (including me) are getting frustrated and disenchanted (assuming that they were ever enchanted in the first place) with Jeremy Corbyn, though. h

[HindleA]

[youtube]ng3XJnC8IN8[/youtube]

[HindleA]

"h" in the left luggage department.



PTO-"sorry I was late,the traffic was awful)