Friday 7th June 2019

Post by **refitman** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 7:04 am

Morning all.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 8:01 am

Morning.

I know people sometimes doubt polls, but in reflecting general trends they are usually a good indicator of what's going on and the Peterborough by-election has very much reflected what we're seeing nationally. Both the Tories and Labour, which had taken such a large share of the vote between them in 2017, have fallen back but with the Tories falling back somewhat more than Labour. The Tories are losing huge chunks to the Brexit Party because they're failing to deliver Brexit, while Labour are losing more modest amounts to the remain parties.

Farage has achieved what he wanted to achieve, which is continued pressure on the Tories to deliver Brexit. That pressure doesn't make Brexit any easier to achieve, though, and it doesn't change the arithmetic in parliament.

Post by **adam** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 8:45 am

Delighted the Faragists lost.

Concerned about effects of labour win on cementing current labour policy.

Generally a miserable sod.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 8:58 am

Yes - I said last night that I was glad that the Brexit Party had lost. I'm with you on how Labour will interpret\use the win.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:01 am

FWIW I feel the best way to interpret the win is that people are sick to death of Brexit and more worried about schools, NHS, crime etc.

Good Morning!

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:04 am

Morning all.

Otto English
@Otto_English
·
2h
Peterborough result. Not so much a Labour win.... more a massive Brexit party fail. They threw everything at it... and lost.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:04 am

Good morfternoon.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:05 am

As I've said before the thing I believe will really determine where Labour goes on Brexit is out of their hands and in the hands of Tory MPs and members.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:09 am

Here's an OK analysis of Peterborough from Stephen Bush

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/s ... h-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:18 am

Over half didn't vote.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:40 am

HindleA wrote:Over half didn't vote.

Which perhaps supports my conclusion?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:46 am

Now this is a good fact. The last time the Tories had such a low vote share in Peterborough was 139 years ago!

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:53 am

The 1880 result had 21% for Robert Tennant who had previously been Tory MP for Leeds, but was deselected to be replaced by Gladstone.

Post by **adam** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:07 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Now this is a good fact. The last time the Tories had such a low vote share in Peterborough was 139 years ago!

And a lies, damn lies and statistics fact - labour have increased their majority through this by-election, from 607 in 2017 to 683 now.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:11 am

PfY I would say you are undoubtedly correct ,has been the case for me for some time,or at least other issues retain regardless and of more import given possible consequences

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:20 am

I would say a "good win" given circumstances and context.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:21 am

adam wrote:Delighted the Faragists lost.

Concerned about effects of labour win on cementing current labour policy.

Generally a miserable sod.

I saw a tweet earlier saying Andy McDonald had been on radio/tv? stressing the need for a confirmatory vote, which the tweeter had taken as comforting re Labour policy.

I know they're all for a confirmatory vote on a tory deal, it's what happens if there's a cross party agreement or a GE that concerns me.

All 3 of which seem as impossible as ever anyway.

Post by **adam** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:21 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
HindleA wrote:Over half didn't vote.
Which perhaps supports my conclusion?

Although it had the fourth best turnout of the 14 by-elections since the 2015 general election and it was significantly above the average turnout - 48.3 to 41.8

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:24 am

On presumption ,you actually wanted Labour to win.Some very disappointed "determined to prove themselves rightists"

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:36 am

Chicken chow mein followed by porridge "meal mixer rebel"

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:37 am

I don't eat at work,"catching up"

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:40 am

Never have done,meal breaks are for cramming fags in to maintain necessary nicotine level.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:00 am

adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Now this is a good fact. The last time the Tories had such a low vote share in Peterborough was 139 years ago!
And a lies, damn lies and statistics fact - labour have increased their majority through this by-election, from 607 in 2017 to 683 now.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:01 am

HindleA wrote:PfY I would say you are undoubtedly correct ,has been the case for me for some time,or at least other issues retain regardless and of more import given possible consequences

Not often people say that to me

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:02 am

adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
HindleA wrote:Over half didn't vote.
Which perhaps supports my conclusion?
Although it had the fourth best turnout of the 14 by-elections since the 2015 general election and it was significantly above the average turnout - 48.3 to 41.8

Thanks I was wondering that.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:17 am

I honestly can't see the Brexit Party being anything other than what Ukip was under Farage - a tool with which to manipulate the Tory party. I'd be very surprised if Farage would risk splitting the right wing/ Brexit vote to Labour's benefit in a general election. Farage has a track record of handing his vote back to the Tories in a GE and if Boris Johnson becomes the new Tory leader I do wonder if he'll trigger a GE safe in the knowledge that Farage and the Brexit party will be working for him in the fight with Labour, rather than against him.

Because what's the alternative for a new Tory leader? They otherwise inherit the same impossible parliamentary arithmetic that defeated May.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:29 am

Oh dear, Spiked haven't taken the result very well...

Joanna Williams
@jowilliams293
I'm a bit confused by everyone saying Labour won in Peterborough - I thought the new rule was to add up all the votes of different parties for or against a particular position and decide the winner that way?
8:25 AM · Jun 7, 2019 · Twitter for Android

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:33 am

Willow904 wrote:I honestly can't see the Brexit Party being anything other than what Ukip was under Farage - a tool with which to manipulate the Tory party. I'd be very surprised if Farage would risk splitting the right wing/ Brexit vote to Labour's benefit in a general election. Farage has a track record of handing his vote back to the Tories in a GE and if Boris Johnson becomes the new Tory leader I do wonder if he'll trigger a GE safe in the knowledge that Farage and the Brexit party will be working for him in the fight with Labour, rather than against him.

Because what's the alternative for a new Tory leader? They otherwise inherit the same impossible parliamentary arithmetic that defeated May.

Rather depends on whether candidates of both step aside otherwise we'll get a re-run of last night on a grand scale.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:37 am

adam wrote:Delighted the Faragists lost.

Concerned about effects of labour win on cementing current labour policy.

Generally a miserable sod.

Labour almost dropped enough votes to the LibDems (who barely campaigned in Peterborough) to hand it to the Brexit Party. That has not gone unnoticed, I'm sure.

I think a change is coming regardless of what the result was last night.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 11:53 am

This is called brass neck...demanding that The Brexit party be included in negotiations. Presumably planned before last night and couldn't back out of it.

Shame someone didn't come out of No 10 and said "Oi, Nigel - bugger off will ya!"

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 12:26 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
adam wrote:Delighted the Faragists lost.

Concerned about effects of labour win on cementing current labour policy.

Generally a miserable sod.
Labour almost dropped enough votes to the LibDems (who barely campaigned in Peterborough) to hand it to the Brexit Party. That has not gone unnoticed, I'm sure.

I think a change is coming regardless of what the result was last night.

Good point, but it may be more complicated than that. Disaffected "one nation" type Tories are likely to be switching to Lib Dems too. The ones who actually do care (in a misguided Tory kind of way) about schools and NHS.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 12:28 pm

RIP Dr John.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 12:37 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
Willow904 wrote:I honestly can't see the Brexit Party being anything other than what Ukip was under Farage - a tool with which to manipulate the Tory party. I'd be very surprised if Farage would risk splitting the right wing/ Brexit vote to Labour's benefit in a general election. Farage has a track record of handing his vote back to the Tories in a GE and if Boris Johnson becomes the new Tory leader I do wonder if he'll trigger a GE safe in the knowledge that Farage and the Brexit party will be working for him in the fight with Labour, rather than against him.

Because what's the alternative for a new Tory leader? They otherwise inherit the same impossible parliamentary arithmetic that defeated May.
Rather depends on whether candidates of both step aside otherwise we'll get a re-run of last night on a grand scale.

The Brexit party won't be fielding a full slate of candidates in a GE so which constituencies they contend will be key but I suspect if that was the plan it hasn't gone very well as Farage came up against a limit of how much support he can take off Labour in leave voting Labour leaning areas and he hit that limit earlier than he clearly expected judging by his reaction to the Peterborough result. I just can't see Boris Johnson being content to step into Theresa May's mess. He'll want to win an election with a decent majority or his place in the history books will end up looking a lot like May's. And is that going to be easier to achieve before or after we've left (or failed to leave) the EU?

The Tories were never going to risk another election with May, but with a new leader? An early GE feels more possible than it did, at any rate.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 1:15 pm

The High Court has quashed the summonses against Boris Johnson (misconduct in public office).

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 1:15 pm

Breaking...

Joshua Rozenberg
@JoshuaRozenberg
Summonses against Boris Johnson quashed. Reasons to follow.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 1:17 pm

The thing is though, who is now going to trust the Tories to deliver if they hold a GE *before* having left the EU?

Its hard to overstate how much "May's Brexit Betrayal" rankles with a large number of their previously loyal voters.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 2:15 pm

I was just hoping Johnson's giant ego would override reality. Waiting until 2022 to get them out is too depressing.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 4:03 pm

Theresa May has resigned in a private letter sent to the BBC.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 4:21 pm

I didn't even know Theresa May worked for the BBC.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 4:30 pm

She might as well do!

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 9:34 pm

No late shift, then?

OK in the absence of anything else this weeks council byelection review - two contests, both deferred polls from last month:

Herefordshire - LibDem gain from Tory, thus cementing the anti-Tory alliance that took power here after May's elections. That was maybe not a surprise, but the sheer scale of the win might have been - a full 75% for the LibDem which was a 28 point jump on the previous election in 2015 (the first since boundary changes which led to uniform single member wards in this unitary) when the Tories won by about 5 points in a straight fight - thus a swing of well over 30% and the Tory share down by close to two thirds. Labour also tried their luck this time, but had to be content with a modest 6%.

South Staffordshire DC - some better tidings for the blue team as Tories held both seats in this ward with over 60% of the vote, though even having to stand for election here was a novelty as 2 Tories here were returned here unopposed in both 2015 and 2011. The essentially right wing character of these parts is shown by the last time Tories did not take both seats in 2003, their sole opponent was a candidate from the right wing splinter group the Freedom Party who actually topped the poll - but they did not stand in 2007 and LibDem and Labour opposition was easily defeated. This time round Greens were the best of the rest with a respectable 16%, with the LibDems not far behind and then Labour bringing up the rear with 8%.

Three contests next week, including two more deferred elections from a month ago.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 07 Jun, 2019 10:10 pm

Deranged Clive homage to coke addict (7,4).

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sat 08 Jun, 2019 12:19 am

I was delighted Labour beat that collector of the barrel scapings of humanity and his latest money making scheme.

Does it mean the fence sitting is working? Who can tell. All I can offer as an opponent of said precarious arse balancing is I would have voted Labour in Peterborough to keep the Brexit party Ltd out. All other considerations would have been secondary.

What did cause me some considerable glee was that enough thick racists voted for Ukip to swing the vote in Labour's favour.

A friend of mine predicted that would happen and I poo poo'd him so now I'm having to eat humble pie.

As an imaginary pie it doesn't really taste of anything, mostly I can taste the tuna salad I had for my tea and cheap Chilean Merlot.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sat 08 Jun, 2019 12:26 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:RIP Dr John.

[youtube]kWvdO3l4_P8[/youtube]

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 08 Jun, 2019 12:28 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Deranged Clive homage to coke addict (7,4).

Just got back from a concert at the Barbican* and the headline I would have least expected to see was this one.

Do we now get Osborne boasting "Huh - that's nothing - I took it when I was Chancellor!"?

* to mark Topic Records 80th birthday - the oldest independent record label in the world apparently

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sat 08 Jun, 2019 1:00 am

And perhaps that's what we're heading for.

Seats fought and won on the finest of margins. Votes cast more against what you don't like than what you do.

The kind of political enviroment that first past the post is utterly inadequate in dealing with.

We keep hearing that PR would result in unstable politics but just look at England and compare it with Scotland. Nu-Labour tried to rig PR in Scotland so that no party would ever get a majority, that party obviously being the SNP and just look what's happened, they did gain a majority and there is no Scottish Farage. The only political crisis Scotland has to deal with is that caused by Westminister.

Until the Tories and Labour are forced to reform England's ludicrous voting system millions of us, in difficult electoral circumstances, will have to vote against what we don't like rather than offering our support to those we might think would make the world a better place.