Tuesday 6th August 2019

[refitman]

Morning all.

[HindleA]

Morning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-49208" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... ssion=true

"Crapita goes to court in order to maintain their reputation of being incompetent malicious arseholes"

[HindleA]

I have averaged 14 posts a day over coming up to five years,I only mention as a "be grateful for deletions"Style of thing.


Are they still "going?"

[HindleA]

By coincide "14" is also the number that could reasonably be said to make any kind of sense.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Unsold import, broken, declares No-Deal cannot be stopped (4,8).

[PaulfromYorkshire]

A good post from Spinning Hugo

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2019 ... to-resign/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Remarkably, he invites us to join him on the streets should Johnson refuse to resign in the face of a vote of no confidence

[adam]

A good post from Spinning Hugo

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2019 ... to-resign/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Remarkably, he invites us to join him on the streets should Johnson refuse to resign in the face of a vote of no confidence

I wrote something about this last night - I think that statute trumps convention, and that although he obviously would have to go if the house passed a confidence motion in support of an alternative government (which is what the FTPA says) he doesn't have to go after a No Confidence vote until there is a new PM who can command a majority and there is an incredibly strong argument from the FTPA that he has 14 days to try to put that majority in place himself. He could also get in the way of any attempt for the commons to construct an alternative majority by going straight to the palace and saying, not without reason, that no party leader can command a majority and so there should be a dissolution and a general election. He would remain PM at least until the election had been decided (as Callaghan did in 1979) and given the bunch of wreckers surrounding him, he would probably do what he chose to do in the meantime.

And unless something else happens we leave the EU on 31st October. And I don't know better than anybody else but it would appear to be the case that the only thing that will lead to an extension is a clear and specific path to resolve the question once and for all. And if Johnson went ahead asking for a clear mandate to leave without a deal on 31st unless the EU moved as we wanted them to in our direction then it would appear likely to me that Farage's lot would stand down and support them, and they might well comfortably win. If I was Johnson, I would engineer a General Election for mid October on that basis.

[PorFavor]

Morning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-49208" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... ssion=true

"Crapita goes to court in order to maintain their reputation of being incompetent malicious arseholes"

The link don't work 'cause the vandals took the handles.

[adam]

I would add to that last post...

1. Labour are not going to suddenly ditch Corbyn. They are not going to be told by the other opposition parties who can or can't lead them.
2. The Lib Dems and the SNP at the very least are not going to work with Corbyn's labour party
3. It's entirely possible that as with Brecon there could be some kind of semi-formal or even formal alliance between LD/PC/Greens (and conceivably the SNP) but if there is, the other parties will have to get over or ignore the fact that the LibDems will rule out supporting a Corbyn led Labour party but won't rule out supporting any Tory government. One likely outcome of a close GE would be for Johnson to offer the Lib Dems a NoWA/Revoke A50 referendum and a handful of socially liberal tokens in exchange for five years of very conservative government. I think the Lib Dems would say yes without delay, and I think the referendum would be lost again.

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

[HindleA]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-49208 ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[gilsey]

One likely outcome of a close GE would be for Johnson to offer the Lib Dems a NoWA/Revoke A50 referendum and a handful of socially liberal tokens in exchange for five years of very conservative government. I think the Lib Dems would say yes without delay, and I think the referendum would be lost again.

Depressingly plausible.

[Willow904]

Given Labour's stated policy to respect the referendum and subsequent support for a premature triggering of article 50 in favour of Theresa May negotiating a hard Brexit outside the single market, it's difficult, at this point, to really understand what Labour hoped to achieve by rejecting the WA that emerged from the process they supported and helped set in motion.

It was a hugely risky course of action, as I pointed out at the time, because leaving the EU with no deal is the default if a majority can't be found for anything else. We are now left hoping for a convoluted series of events, dependent on a number of Tories putting country before self and party, to dig us out of a very deep hole, when we could already be enjoying an orderly transition to a relationship with the EU that would necessarily be a close one because of the restrictions imposed by the agreed backstop. It's pretty clear why the ERG wouldn't accept the backstop, but Labour's reasoning, beyond the strategic desire to oppose a Tory government, which would have made more sense if, like the SNP, they opposed them all the way along, is far less clear. I can only hope we don't all come to regret that they didn't vote for a deal when they had the chance.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Great posts here.

Perhaps then Hugo is right and we may as a last resort all need to "take to the streets" and call the Johnson coup for what it is.

[HindleA]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[citizenJA]

Good morning, everyone.

[gilsey]

There's a parallel between the situation here and the US in 2016, isn't there. I couldn't understand apparently sensible people who were appalled by the prospect of Trump as President, refusing to vote for Clinton to stop him because reasons.

Now I can't understand people who are appalled by Johnson and his right-wing, disaster capitalism project refusing to consider voting Labour to stop him. JC for all his faults respects our institutions and democratic conventions and imo that's pretty important at present. How can you equate Johnson and Corbyn, unless you think you personally stand to gain from disaster capitalism? Which makes you corrupt or badly mistaken or both.

[AnatolyKasparov]

People keep talking about it, but I don't see Farage just doing Johnson's bidding in any GE *before* we have left the EU.

[adam]

People keep talking about it, but I don't see Farage just doing Johnson's bidding in any GE *before* we have left the EU.

If Johnson calls an election before we have left, and if he stands on a manifesto saying 'we are leaving with or without a withdrawal agreement on October 31st' (or 'x' if we've been given a short extension to have an election) - and I can't see what other mandate he would be seeking given how he's behaving at the moment - then I don't know what possible good it would do Farage to get in the way. His candidates are every bit as likely, if not a lot more likely, to get in the way of tory MPs being elected than opposition MPs.

[adam]

Given Labour's stated policy to respect the referendum and subsequent support for a premature triggering of article 50 in favour of Theresa May negotiating a hard Brexit outside the single market, it's difficult, at this point, to really understand what Labour hoped to achieve by rejecting the WA that emerged from the process they supported and helped set in motion.

It was a hugely risky course of action, as I pointed out at the time, because leaving the EU with no deal is the default if a majority can't be found for anything else. We are now left hoping for a convoluted series of events, dependent on a number of Tories putting country before self and party, to dig us out of a very deep hole, when we could already be enjoying an orderly transition to a relationship with the EU that would necessarily be a close one because of the restrictions imposed by the agreed backstop. It's pretty clear why the ERG wouldn't accept the backstop, but Labour's reasoning, beyond the strategic desire to oppose a Tory government, which would have made more sense if, like the SNP, they opposed them all the way along, is far less clear. I can only hope we don't all come to regret that they didn't vote for a deal when they had the chance.

I think there was something of a 'heads they win, tails we lose' situation on the WA votes. Given who he has drawn around him now, it's far from impossible that Johnson would just have repudiated the WA anyway. They would have been voting for the PD as well as the WA which, for all of the language about ambitious co-operation and close dealings, actually starts off by saying 'EU red lines - four freedoms indivisible, rules and regulations, payments, ECJ oversight, UK red lines - no rules and regulations, no free movement of labour, no payments, no ECJ - all have to be respected' and can only lead to a limited FTA for some goods and a permanent backstop arrangement for NI - I think they were right to vote against that in any event.

[adam]

Great posts here.

Perhaps then Hugo is right and we may as a last resort all need to "take to the streets" and call the Johnson coup for what it is.

I don't think the government would care. They might even be pleased, it would give them an excuse to crack down more.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Because he doesn't trust Johnson, and nor do many of his supporters?

And yes, its not exactly impossible to imagine our PM reneging on even the most copper bottomed election "promise" if it suits him.

[adam]

Because he doesn't trust Johnson, and nor do many of his supporters?

Very true, no denying that. The question becomes how much political nouse Farage has, because I think it's likely that far from keeping Johnson honest, his candidates in a general election would just get in the way of the best chance he has of getting what he wants.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I'm not saying a deal between them *can't* happen, just that it isn't the slam dunk that many appear to assume.

[citizenJA]

People keep talking about it, but I don't see Farage just doing Johnson's bidding in any GE *before* we have left the EU.

Farage is a political performance character, just like Johnson and Cameron. I doubt Farage cares about much other than himself. I doubt he cares about the UK leaving or staying within the EU.

[citizenJA]

Because he doesn't trust Johnson, and nor do many of his supporters?

Very true, no denying that. The question becomes how much political nouse Farage has, because I think it's likely that far from keeping Johnson honest, his candidates in a general election would just get in the way of the best chance he has of getting what he wants.

Yes. I hope these characters dislike each other and coherent planning. They're unprincipled and mercurial.

[adam]

I'm not saying a deal between them *can't* happen, just that it isn't the slam dunk that many appear to assume.

I'm not even sure that talk of a 'deal' is a thing - I've never believed that the tories would start standing candidates down anywhere. More that if Johnson is pledging to give Farage what he wants, and Farage's candidates standing make it less likely that Johnson would win a majority (and also still very very unlikely that Farage would win anything other than a trivial number of seats at the very very most and would not be a player in coalition negotiatons in any event) then Farage standing would only make leaving at all less likely. At the very least, anything short of a tory majority seems likely to lead to a further referendum.

[citizenJA]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... ssion=true

I am not going back to that news outlet.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Well, we've doubled yesterday's post number by lunchtime

[HindleA]

That is your choice,suffice to state I credit people with the ability to use their critical faculties ,I will continue to post what I think is of import ,not least as a source of variety away from the current obsessions totally dominating discourse.I would request just to ignore rather than show discourtesy by stating you are ignoring.Posting outwith current obsession is a hard task and more often than not a solitary activity as it is without being reminded.and thus undermined.Yes I know I have my own obsessions.In general I am not in favour of banning oneself from information ,it doesn't mean you "accept "

[citizenJA]

That is your choice,suffice to state I credit people with the ability to use their critical faculties ,I will continue to post what I think is of import ,not least as a source of variety away from the current obsessions totally dominating discourse.I would request just to ignore rather than show discourtesy by stating you are ignoring.Posting outwith current obsession is a hard task and more often than not a solitary activity as it is without being reminded.and thus undermined.Yes I know I have my own obsessions.In general I am not in favour of banning oneself from information ,it doesn't mean you "accept "

I meant it as joke after having read DH's article in the Daily Mail on Sunday. That's all.

[gilsey]

Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
Unless Johnson is a total idiot, he is bluffing. But it’s also not that important. If MPs move against him at start of Sep and he refuses to budge, they can enact emergency Act of Parliament to revoke A50. Yvette Cooper got her act in law in 3 days. This time we’ll have 6 weeks.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What a relief that would be.
I reckon the brexiter riots would be shortlived, they could go back to their preferred state of whinging powerlessness.

[gilsey]

And can you imagine what it'd do for the £?
Too late for my hols, sadly.

[citizenJA]

I have averaged 14 posts a day over coming up to five years,I only mention as a "be grateful for deletions"Style of thing.


Are they still "going?"

I've not seen any posts for a long time - not for a couple of years

[PorFavor]

Author Toni Morrison has died.

Her novel "Jazz" made a great, and lasting, impression on me.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

SH reverting to type

I think I have the ideal compromise MP to act as a temporary PM for a few days for the purposes of blocking no deal Brexit, and having an election

Ideally needs to be

1. a Tory
2. career over
3. physically able to do the job (Clarke is 79)

Step forward

Theresa May.....

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Author Toni Morrison has died.

Her novel "Jazz" made a great, and lasting, impression on me.

I must read it one day. Thanks.

[AnatolyKasparov]

SH reverting to type

I think I have the ideal compromise MP to act as a temporary PM for a few days for the purposes of blocking no deal Brexit, and having an election

Ideally needs to be

1. a Tory
2. career over
3. physically able to do the job (Clarke is 79)

Step forward

Theresa May.....

Tbf to him that has raised a smile with me, would be a nice troll

[Willow904]

Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
Replying to
@Peston
I think it’s optimistic to assume that the pound will hit parity with the euro and stay where it is. It may even dip below parity with the dollar.
2:58 PM · Aug 6, 2019

I needed to make a purchase in euros and was debating whether to leave it a week to see if the pound might pick up a bit but in the end decided to just get on with it. I actually didn't consider it might fall further and leave me even more out of pocket!

[PorFavor]

Author Toni Morrison has died.

Her novel "Jazz" made a great, and lasting, impression on me.

I must read it one day. Thanks.

It's a fairly slim book and (in my opinion) needs to be read in one sitting as it moves with its own rhythm which it's best not to break. I'd be interested to hear your take on it.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Everybody preoccupied with reading Toni Morrison then?

[citizenJA]

Everybody preoccupied with reading Toni Morrison then?

I should be. I've been reading the news instead.

[AnatolyKasparov]

You have my sympathy.

[Willow904]

Rebecca Long-Bailey seems a bit confused about what a government of national unity to prevent a "no deal" Brexit by requesting an extension from the EU (most likely to then hold a GE) would entail. Seems to think Johnson would have to agree to it and it would let him off the hook somehow?! Quite how this would be the result of forcing him to resign and replacing him with a new PM is anyone's guess. And I don't think she's grasped that the point of it is to ensure Johnson doesn't let the UK crash out of the EU while the GE she keeps wittering on about is taking place, as Cummings has threatened. She clearly didn't get the memo.


" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
"What we don't want is a national unity government that gives Boris some sort of get out of jail free card."

Rebecca Long-Bailey says Labour "wouldn't countenance a national government of unity" to deal with Brexit.

[Willow904]

All pretty far-fetched and tenuous, of course, anyway.

Best chance of avoiding "no deal" lies in Johnson not actually wanting it. Everything else is very much clutching at straws. Our fate was pretty much sealed the day a majority Tory government triggered article 50. Not much the opposition could do to stop them. It's just regrettable a large chunk of the Labour party chose to cheer them on. And I still contend that it was in the interests of the country, if not Labour, to vote May's WA through and secure transition. May would not have resigned leaving Johnson's route to power longer and harder.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Like it or not the talk of a "government of national unity" is widely seen in Labour circles as a centrist power grab.

Only something lasting literally a matter of weeks existing SOLELY to arrange a GE as soon as possible and extend A50 a little beyond that, would be acceptable to most left wing opinion. But of course, if such a government only needed to do that - then what would be wrong with the leader of the second biggest party in parliament leading it (as in line with all previous precedent and convention)? The fact its advocates insist Corbyn can't be the temporary PM tells its own story in the opinion of many.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

@willow

You may well be quite right.

The alternative view is we had to have this Johnson moment to ultimately defeat the Brexit extremists.

It probably all depends how long he manages to cling to power and how much damage he does.

[Willow904]

I'm just a bit grumpy right now because the recent drop in the pound cost me a tenner

[Willow904]

Well, maybe not a whole tenner, but it did cost me and the media, which would normally be having kittens over such economic mismanagement, barely mentions it.

That's the problem right there. Poor growth, low wages, falling pound. It's no longer what government's live and die on. It's the new normal. It's factored in and accepted and that raises real concern over what people will accept before they think better of Johnson, Tories and Brexit.

Right. I'm off to drink some wine and watch the finale of Fargo season 2 on DVD. I'll try to be more cheerful tomorrow.

[adam]

In the good old days...

(I know it's a link without an explanation but it's worth it - it's a shortish twitter hosted video.)