Monday 12th August 2019

[refitman]

Morning all.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Morning All

On the cooperation thing (don't mention GNUs)...

There seem to be some confusing discourses around when cooperation should happen.

Labour's view, which, surprise surprise, I support, is that it, and as many other parties as want to, should contest essentially every seat. This will produce a Parliament. And then parties can decide to cooperate, or not.

Much as I'm happy that the Greens have an MP, I think it's quite right that Labour stand in Brighton. There could be particular seats (Uxbridge?) where cross-party cooperation might unseat a particular individual and that seems OK.

But the idea that Labour would stand aside widely to allow the Libs a clear run doesn't sound right to me.

[Willow904]

Re: Cooperation.

I don't know what's been suggested by anyone else but for me, anti-right wing Brexit cooperation in a GE would be about the various cooperating parties focusing resources on the Tory marginals they can win rather than marginals they can take off each other.

So that would mean Labour not putting lots of money and boots on the ground to try and take Brighton as they did in 2015 or to cling onto Sheffield Hallam that they put so much concentrated effort into winning in 2017.

It shouldn't mean parties standing down in favour of other parties unless they are small parties who don't stand in every seat anyway as that's not fair on voters who have a right to choose who they wish to support, however frustratingly pointless that sometimes is with FPTP.

Although it's true FPTP forces elections to be about two main contenders and it may be true that to stop a hard Brexit Labour needs to end up the bigger party rather than the Tories at the end of it, Labour need to respect the fact that many people who will need to vote for them to keep the Tories out would rather vote for other parties and those other parties need to remember that they will likewise need some Labour supporters to tactically vote for them.

Which means they all need to focus their attacks on the Tories rather than each other, particularly Labour, Greens, Plaid and the SNP. The Libdems are in a slightly different position. To win over moderate remain voting Tories and right leaning liberals, the type of voter that tipped to the Tories to keep Miliband out in 2015, they are understandably defending the coalition and saying they won't deal with Corbyn. By going for these voters, rather than disaffected remain supporting Labour voters they actually help Labour more than hinder them, as they are clearly focusing on winning Tory/Libdem marginals by converting Tory votes, rather than going after Labour. Even so, going into an election, the Libdems also need to focus criticism on Johnson and the Tory Brexit policies rather than Corbyn's lukewarm anti-Brexit stance if they are to help maximise the number of seats the anti-right wing Brexit parties can win.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Co-operation to stop a no deal crash out come Halloween, is undoubtedly a good thing.

That works in all directions, however (ie Swinson saying she would not work with Corbyn in any circumstances is definitely *not* it)

And there is also no doubt, unfortunately, that Lucas has s*** the bed with her latest proposal.

[gilsey]

Thread on the 'productivity puzzle', who knew the answer was insufficient demand. Good to see some proper data analysis anyway.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://neweconomics.org/2019/08/fix-pr ... gher-wages" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Weak demand can affect productivity through the behaviour of firms. Firms that are confident in strong demand will invest now to increase efficiency tomorrow, raising their productivity and reaping the benefits over the longer term. But when demand is weak, firms reduce investment and rely instead on cheap labour that can be shed quickly if demand doesn’t improve.

[Willow904]

Co-operation to stop a no deal crash out come Halloween, is undoubtedly a good thing.

That works in all directions, however (ie Swinson saying she would not work with Corbyn in any circumstances is definitely *not* it)

And there is also no doubt, unfortunately, that Lucas has s*** the bed with her latest proposal.

Yeah, I don't know what Caroline Lucas was thinking there either.

As for Swinson, I thought her comment was specifically in relation to supporting a minority Labour government after a GE as opposed to pre-election cooperation to prevent no deal?

Then there's a government of national unity. The person to lead it would have to have the confidence of both Tory and Labour remainers. I don't think there is anyone and just can't see how it would happen.

We need a GE. We need an extension to article 50 in order to hold one. And the person to ask for that extension needs to be the PM. So parliament needs to find a way to force Johnson to ask for an extension to hold a GE. There really isn't any other proper, constitutional and democratic way to proceed that I can see.

Any other outcome will be a constitutional and democratic failure of epic proportions and no wonder there are rumours that the Queen is in despair at the ineptitude of her current crop of politicians.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Re: Cooperation.

I don't know what's been suggested by anyone else but for me, anti-right wing Brexit cooperation in a GE would be about the various cooperating parties focusing resources on the Tory marginals they can win rather than marginals they can take off each other.

So that would mean Labour not putting lots of money and boots on the ground to try and take Brighton as they did in 2015 or to cling onto Sheffield Hallam that they put so much concentrated effort into winning in 2017.

It shouldn't mean parties standing down in favour of other parties unless they are small parties who don't stand in every seat anyway as that's not fair on voters who have a right to choose who they wish to support, however frustratingly pointless that sometimes is with FPTP.

Although it's true FPTP forces elections to be about two main contenders and it may be true that to stop a hard Brexit Labour needs to end up the bigger party rather than the Tories at the end of it, Labour need to respect the fact that many people who will need to vote for them to keep the Tories out would rather vote for other parties and those other parties need to remember that they will likewise need some Labour supporters to tactically vote for them.

Which means they all need to focus their attacks on the Tories rather than each other, particularly Labour, Greens, Plaid and the SNP. The Libdems are in a slightly different position. To win over moderate remain voting Tories and right leaning liberals, the type of voter that tipped to the Tories to keep Miliband out in 2015, they are understandably defending the coalition and saying they won't deal with Corbyn. By going for these voters, rather than disaffected remain supporting Labour voters they actually help Labour more than hinder them, as they are clearly focusing on winning Tory/Libdem marginals by converting Tory votes, rather than going after Labour. Even so, going into an election, the Libdems also need to focus criticism on Johnson and the Tory Brexit policies rather than Corbyn's lukewarm anti-Brexit stance if they are to help maximise the number of seats the anti-right wing Brexit parties can win.

Yes I agree with this.

Labour will naturally focus on the most winnable seats, which are pretty much all Tory and SNP. So in England and Wales there's no issue. Labour will attack the Tories and have low profile campaigns in the Lib Dem target seats.

Hallam's a tricky one. It's so high profile that Labour do need a presence there, but yes it's probably a lost cause. You also can't just give up on the local party who managed such a successful campaign just because the MP hasn't worked out well and the council have chopped all the trees down

[AnatolyKasparov]

We seem to have yet another spam attack, mods.....

[Willow904]

Thread on the 'productivity puzzle', who knew the answer was insufficient demand. Good to see some proper data analysis anyway.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://neweconomics.org/2019/08/fix-pr ... gher-wages" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Weak demand can affect productivity through the behaviour of firms. Firms that are confident in strong demand will invest now to increase efficiency tomorrow, raising their productivity and reaping the benefits over the longer term. But when demand is weak, firms reduce investment and rely instead on cheap labour that can be shed quickly if demand doesn’t improve.

Our "emergency" low interest rate is a sign of a struggling economy, not that you'd know it from the echoing silence on the matter from the media. As such, a solution to our poor productivity that also creates space for higher interest rates seems like a no brainer for any government keen to improve the state of our economy.

The problem, of course, is a government that has no interest in improving the economy for the benefit of ordinary people, especially as higher interest rates would lead to a long overdue adjustment in the property market the consequence of which will be facing the fact that we are not as rich as we like to think we are - the kiss of death for any sitting government, alas, and hence the resistance of multiple property owning Tories to running the economy more responsibly.

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

British diplomats to pull out from EU decision-making meetings within days (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ithin-days

[AnatolyKasparov]

We seem to have yet another spam attack, mods.....

Still there.......

[GetYou]

Bloody Vikings!

[refitman]

We seem to have yet another spam attack, mods.....

Still there.......

Fixed now.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Thank you

[citizenJA]

Good evening, everyone.
Have I missed anything?
I inadvertently made a clean area this morning and it snowballed into hours of cleaning house.

[citizenJA]

[---cJA edit---]

We need a GE. We need an extension to article 50 in order to hold one. And the person to ask for that extension needs to be the PM. So parliament needs to find a way to force Johnson to ask for an extension to hold a GE. There really isn't any other proper, constitutional and democratic way to proceed that I can see.

Any other outcome will be a constitutional and democratic failure of epic proportions and no wonder there are rumours that the Queen is in despair at the ineptitude of her current crop of politicians.

I agree.

You've piqued my curiosity. Is there credible evidence of her despair? I'm simply curious, nothing more. I don't watch television and don't typically read media coverage of royalty. What I have seen are images of her relentless smile.

[citizenJA]

Thread on the 'productivity puzzle', who knew the answer was insufficient demand. Good to see some proper data analysis anyway.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://neweconomics.org/2019/08/fix-pr ... gher-wages" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Weak demand can affect productivity through the behaviour of firms. Firms that are confident in strong demand will invest now to increase efficiency tomorrow, raising their productivity and reaping the benefits over the longer term. But when demand is weak, firms reduce investment and rely instead on cheap labour that can be shed quickly if demand doesn’t improve.

I've only recently become aware of my optimism levels flat-lining. No new day bringing good or better ideas and change.
I loved reading this. Caring for the environment and for people earning the least. Doors opened in my mind, unhurried thinking. It's like fresh air.

[Willow904]

[---cJA edit---]

We need a GE. We need an extension to article 50 in order to hold one. And the person to ask for that extension needs to be the PM. So parliament needs to find a way to force Johnson to ask for an extension to hold a GE. There really isn't any other proper, constitutional and democratic way to proceed that I can see.

Any other outcome will be a constitutional and democratic failure of epic proportions and no wonder there are rumours that the Queen is in despair at the ineptitude of her current crop of politicians.

I agree.

You've piqued my curiosity. Is there credible evidence of her despair? I'm simply curious, nothing more. I don't watch television and don't typically read media coverage of royalty. What I have seen are images of her relentless smile.

Just gossip. I wouldn't take it too seriously! (Easy to believe, though )

[citizenJA]

thank you, Willow

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Reading reports that Labour MPs have been told to be in London in September, suggesting a VONC is firmly on the cards

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

[PorFavor]

The Government has launched a "spot the difference" competition.

Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, acknowledged that he had previously argued that crashing out of the EU without a deal would be chaos. “[The prime minister] wants to achieve a deal, but if we cannot achieve a deal, then it needs to be as orderly a Brexit as possible. That is why the work of government at the moment is focused hugely on that effort.”

Buckland added that “there is a difference between crashing out and not achieving a deal”, and said ongoing work would “avoid the chaos of a crash-out”. (Guardian - my bold)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... er-johnson

[RogerOThornhill]

"How about a dictatorship and I just do what I want and to hell with the democratic institution that this country has?"
"Ooh, yes please Mr Johnson! Just do it!"

Boris Johnson has public's support to shut down Parliament to get Brexit over line, exclusive poll suggests

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... et-brexit/

Boris Johnson has the support of more than half of the public to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending Parliament, according to a poll.

The ComRes survey for The Telegraph found that 54 per cent of British adults think Parliament should be prorogued to prevent MPs stopping a no-deal Brexit.

The poll suggested the Prime Minister is more in tune with the public’s views on Brexit than MPs, following his promise to deliver Brexit by October 31 “do or die”.

"The people" seem to have lost their tiny minds...

[adam]

When the liberal democrats had about one MP to about every five and a half tories, they fell in and did their bidding. Now they have one MP to every 19 labour MPs they won't think about it. Perhaps they need a new leader who will accept that they're a small part of the jigsaw and they need to fit in with the official opposition.

The real 'cooperation' issue is going to be if Johnson goes to the country saying '31st October come what may' and Farage simply stands down and says 'vote for them'. For the lib dems co-operating about election seats has always appeared to mean 'you should vote for us' and that's about it.