Monday, 2nd September 2019

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:55 am

Good morfternoon.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 9:53 am

That is unambiguously a Good Morning I reckon

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 9:55 am

Johnson seems to be provoking an election doesn't he?

David Gauke and Antoinette Sandbach both quite clear they will essentially resign to vote against No Deal.

As I said before, I hope if asked that Labour will say yes to the election but let's deal with this emergency first.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 10:06 am

Haven't noticed the tidal wave of press indignation at Johnson's "brutal Stalinism", tbh. Maybe it just got lost in the post??

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 10:18 am

Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
Clear difference between May and Johnson:

May tried everything to get a deal through parliament— *apart* from a formal splintering of the Conservative Party.

Johnson will try everything. This government is Vote Leave first, Conservative Party second*

Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
*Ironically, many inside No10 believe—sincerely, whether you agree or not—that this is putting country before party, just as Labour has always demanded

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 10:41 am

Most of "the country" doesn't want to leave with no deal, though.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 10:51 am

Indeed, the distinction between putting 'the party' first and putting 'the part of the country that might vote tory' first might be quite fine.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 10:56 am

Just catching up with yesterday's thread, how on earth did the sand art on Redcar beach end up in the Belfast Telegraph?
Here it is in the local rag.
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/tees ... t-16849396" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:01 am

Also, thanks to sky for calling in. There may be a win-win available to save red squirrels, apparently pine martens are the answer if they can be successfully re-introduced.

Presumably the greys are easier to catch. More meat on them too.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:03 am

A round up of the FT's Corbynomics feature. Should be attributed to McDonnell of course but wouldn't quite trip off the tongue.

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PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:17 am

I thought Tony Blair's speech laid out the position we're in and how we got here pretty coherently. However, I think it could have done without the sniping at Jeremy Corbyn. It sounded politically self-interested, petty and undermined Labour at a time when it's least needed.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:23 am

Jeremy Corbyn is speaking now. He starts by praising Rebecca Long-Bailey as a “brilliant” MP.

(It is widely assumed she is the Corbynites favoured candidate for next Labour leader.)[

(Politics Live, Guardian)

Give me strength.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:25 am

She has certainly got better, but I'm still not sold on that one either.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:33 am

He endorsed Corbyn's approach in places. It was warmer towards him than previous Blair interventions I thought.

Resolving Brexit before a GE seems unlikely, though. The current parliament isn't going to be able to provide a stable enough majority under anyone, even Johnson, to deliver a further referendum, which appeared to be Blair's preferred plan.

An extension needs to be secured to avert imminent no deal but after that a GE seems inevitable and it also seems inevitable that Johnson will campaign as the thwarted Brexiter. The question is whether it serves Labour to have that GE sooner or later. Will time as PM strengthen or weaken Johnson's appeal?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:40 am

I stated my view on this yesterday - much of Johnson's current appeal (though that shouldn't be overstated either) is through positioning himself as a "strong leader" who can "get Brexit done". An A50 extension, even if forced on him against his will, surely has to damage that framing to some extent.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:56 am

gilsey wrote:Also, thanks to sky for calling in. There may be a win-win available to save red squirrels, apparently pine martens are the answer if they can be successfully re-introduced.

Presumably the greys are easier to catch. More meat on them too.

Yes, it was a nice surprise to see those posts (if it's possible to have a "nice surprise" at 4 o'clock of a morning).

Post by **adam** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 12:22 pm

Long piece in the Spectator blogs (not paywalled) that is worth the time

Ivan Rogers: the realities of a no-deal Brexit

Longer than usual quote from the opening to set it up

The primary issue with a ‘no deal’ Brexit is not, and never has been, how far our domestic contingency planning enables us to mitigate the short-term shock. That is hugely important. If ‘no deal’ happens, the day to day consequences – malign or benign – will inevitably drown out all else in the news for months. No developed country will have done anything analogous in several generations, let alone by choice.

But this ought, nevertheless, to be secondary. The primary issue is our medium-long term destination. The central problem with ‘no deal’ is that it is being heavily (mis)sold as providing certainty, finality – a ‘clean break’ – when it would manifestly do nothing of the sort.

It encourages a public (many of whom are understandably fed up with the process and the game playing – on all sides – of the political class) to believe that ‘closure’ might be just weeks away. But this is completely spurious. The reality of ‘no deal’ is that it would leave all the most intractable issues about our future relationship with the EU unresolved, and leave it unclear whether there would even be a subsequent process to resolve them. It would, in other words, be just the start, not the end.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 12:38 pm

Of course we all know the only real way to get closure.

I know revocation would have plenty of repercussions but they'd be mostly political rather than economic or indeed life-threatening, personally I'd much rather be having the rows against a backdrop of a recovering £ and hesitant resumption of investment.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 12:43 pm

Good afternoon, everyone.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 1:32 pm

Revocation really is something that can only be considered as a literal last resort, though.

IMO anyway.

Post by **adam** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 2:10 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Revocation really is something that can only be considered as a literal last resort, though.

IMO anyway.

I agree - I think it would be a very hard sell as a direct policy in a general election and just a different kind of catastrophe for parliament to wheedle through procedurally without another referendum. What Johnson doesn't understand at all (or probably just doesn't care about) and what the more extreme 'revoke now' voices don't seem to bother with (nobody here that I've ever noticed, just to be clear) is that somehow you need to get some kind of consent from the wider electorate for what you do.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 2:22 pm

12:41
Boris Johnson to address Tory MPs after surprise cabinet this afternoon - as general election speculation intensifies (Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 3:30 pm

Paul Brand
✔
@PaulBrandITV

NEW: Remainer source says they expect PM to put down a dissolution motion (calling an election) with what appears to be a “reasonable” polling date before 31 Oct, trick MPs into voting for it, then use prerogative proclamation power to move polling day to after 31s Oct.

1:49 PM - Sep 2, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 3:49 pm

In my view, all this isn't about keeping a Conservative government in power (as if that wouldn't be bad enough). It's about establishing an extreme right-wing, America (Trump) First, "Britannia Unchained"-style government which, for the moment at least, is camouflaged as the Conservative Party.

I know that sounds a touch hysterical, but I fear it's very real and very worrying.

Post by **adam** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 3:53 pm

PorFavor wrote:In my view, all this isn't about keeping a Conservative government in power (as if that wouldn't be bad enough). It's about establishing an extreme right-wing, America (Trump) First, "Britannia Unchained"-style government which, for the moment at least, is camouflaged as the Conservative Party.

I know that sounds a touch hysterical, but I fear it's very real and very worrying.

I don't think it sounds hysterical at all.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 4:27 pm

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2019/0 ... -they.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 5:19 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Paul Brand
✔
@PaulBrandITV

NEW: Remainer source says they expect PM to put down a dissolution motion (calling an election) with what appears to be a “reasonable” polling date before 31 Oct, trick MPs into voting for it, then use prerogative proclamation power to move polling day to after 31s Oct.

1:49 PM - Sep 2, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)

Obviously another wheeze by Cummings, am I alone in thinking he could come seriously badly unstuck sooner rather than later?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 5:51 pm

Boris Johnson to make a statement at around 6pm (BBC).

55DegreesNorth · Post by **55DegreesNorth** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 5:57 pm

gilsey wrote:Also, thanks to sky for calling in. There may be a win-win available to save red squirrels, apparently pine martens are the answer if they can be successfully re-introduced.

Presumably the greys are easier to catch. More meat on them too.

Pine martens reintroduced themselves to Northumberland last year - a camera trap saw them on a few occasions in Kielder. You’re right, they selectively prey on greys as they are too heavy to escape on the skinny twigs the reds use.
Oh, and afternoon all.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:03 pm

Severin Carrell Esq
✔
@severincarrell

BREAKING: The Lord Advocate, Scotland's chief prosecutor and Scottish govt law officer, has announced he is backing both the @joannaccherry and Gina Miller legal actions in Edinburgh and London against suspending parliament #stopBoris

5:49 PM - Sep 2, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:10 pm

Very loud shouting going on from a crowd - there's no mention of this (from the BBC). Anti-Johnson gathering?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:11 pm

What was that all about?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:23 pm

PorFavor wrote:What was that all about?

He's getting heckled, I think

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:26 pm

So, Johnson is threatening an election if Tory rebels vote to delay Brexit tomorrow.

He's counting on Labour to help make a reality of an otherwise empty threat. Would Labour really give up the one real card they have - the timing of a GE - having just secured a victory against no deal? Why would they? Let him stew, if they can get the legislation through, would be my instinct. "If" being the operative word, of course.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:30 pm

Willow904 wrote:So, Johnson is threatening an election if Tory rebels vote to delay Brexit tomorrow.

He's counting on Labour to help make a reality of an otherwise empty threat. Would Labour really give up the one real card they have - the timing of a GE - having just secured a victory against no deal? Why would they? Let him stew, if they can get the legislation through, would be my instinct. "If" being the operative word, of course.

Agreed.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:35 pm

Boris Johnson says he will never ask EU for further Brexit delay
Here is the key quote from Boris Johnson.

MPs should vote with the government against Corbyn’s pointless delay.

I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on 31 October - no ifs or buts.

We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or scrub that referendum.

This means Johnson is saying, if the Benn bill were passed, he would refuse to be bound by it.

That implies he would opt of an election as an alternative - even though Johnson also insisted that he did not want one.

From the G liveblog.

So...lets say the opposition vote passes, Johnson calls for an election to avoid being bound by the vote and loses. He will then have to resign to keep his word, break his word or break the law. I'd love for him to be put in that position tbh. It's not about not wanting a chance to vote him out it's about wanting him to be completely and utterly exposed as the lazy, arrogant lying scumbag he is before the public are asked to give their verdict on him in a GE.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:42 pm

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Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
Govt sources say they have the numbers to call an election later this week as they think Corbyn will have to back them

But concerns raised at shadow cabinet / by Labour MPs today that they cannot trust any election called by Johnson not to be trap laid to force through no-deal
6:24 PM · Sep 2, 2019

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 6:46 pm

Isn't there an Aesop fable that Labour should learn from? (The one about the snake.)

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 7:05 pm

PorFavor wrote:Isn't there an Aesop fable that Labour should learn from? (The one about the snake.)

Apparently, there are eight Aesop fables with snakes involved. I regret I'm not familiar with all of them.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 7:05 pm

Why is the public not allowed to know the gist of the "progress" that is being made in negotiations with the EU? He had there a golden opportunity to give us all a hint.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 7:07 pm

PorFavor wrote:Isn't there an Aesop fable that Labour should learn from? (The one about the snake.)

Don't do what the snake asks?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 7:13 pm

I suspect this one:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crow_and_the_Snake" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"Good fortune may not be all that it seems."

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 7:16 pm

citizenJA wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Isn't there an Aesop fable that Labour should learn from? (The one about the snake.)
Apparently, there are eight Aesop fables with snakes involved. I regret I'm not familiar with all of them.

Ah - sorry! I think it's basically about a deadly venomous snake which bites someone who has just saved its life. When asked why, it responds along the lines of, "Well, I am a snake when all's said and done. You should have expected it."

I'm attributing it to Aesop, but that could well be wrong.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 7:17 pm

Willow904 wrote:I suspect this one:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crow_and_the_Snake" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"Good fortune may not be all that it seems."

Don't have snake for lunch

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 7:18 pm

Willow904 wrote:I suspect this one:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crow_and_the_Snake" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"Good fortune may not be all that it seems."

That's the one! Thanks.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 9:25 pm

PorFavor wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Isn't there an Aesop fable that Labour should learn from? (The one about the snake.)
Apparently, there are eight Aesop fables with snakes involved. I regret I'm not familiar with all of them.
Ah - sorry! I think it's basically about a deadly venomous snake which bites someone who has just saved its life. When asked why, it responds along the lines of, "Well, I am a snake when all's said and done. You should have expected it."

I'm attributing it to Aesop, but that could well be wrong.

Oh that might be "the snake and the farmer". A farmer finds a viper freezing to death, takes it home to warm it by the fire, reviving it back to life only for it to turn around and bite him. With his dying breath the farmer warns those around him "never trust a lying Etonian snake".

I may have paraphrased a little.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 9:44 pm

[youtube]Xd82HxYyHZg[/youtube]

Post by **adam** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 10:09 pm

Willow904 wrote: Oh that might be "the snake and the farmer". A farmer finds a viper freezing to death, takes it home to warm it by the fire, reviving it back to life only for it to turn around and bite him. With his dying breath the farmer warns those around him "never trust a lying Etonian snake".

I may have paraphrased a little.

I think we should also remember here the story of the scorpion and the frog.

[youtube]AgSxeITKxyw[/youtube]

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:03 pm

Just to demonstrate my iron grip -

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 02 Sep, 2019 11:04 pm

PTO

The reign of terror continues