Thursday 2nd October

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:00 pm

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 12 secs13 seconds ago
Heywood & Middleton poll (Survation):
LAB - 50% UKIP - 31% CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:01 pm

Ha ha. From a week ago.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05f8f16a-44ad ... z3F1VsX9Hr" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jean-Claude Juncker has deprived Britain’s Lord Hill of lead responsibility for overseeing financial sector pay in a serious setback for London that will help disarm critics in the European parliament.
In recent private meetings in Brussels, the incoming European Commission president has made clear that Lord Hill will have remuneration policy carved out of his job as EU commissioner overseeing Europe’s financial sector, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Well done, Dave. That stuff you spoke about Juncker went down well.

Prime Ministerial.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:03 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 12 secs13 seconds ago
Heywood & Middleton poll (Survation):
LAB - 50% UKIP - 31% CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%

IIRC the Tories have doubled their vote. Then again hasn't Labours gone up as well?

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:06 pm

HindleA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Ed Miliband visits Middleton to support Liz McInnes

[youtube][/youtube]

We were in front and to the left (looking at the screen) of ED. Press in front of us.
(I'll bet the embed doesn't work so here's the link
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

Thanks for pics and vid.

Pleasure

He's even more handsome in real life, I have seen him once before but this time (apart from the press!) was better

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:08 pm

No surprise the yougov poll shows Conservatives 1% ahead (35 to 34)
but the Survation Poll (headlined by the Sun on Heywood & Middleton by-election as showing UKIP tripling their share but forgetting to say Labour up 10% on 2010 result) so massive swing from CONS & LIBDEMS to Labour if correct.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:11 pm

rearofthestore wrote:No surprise the yougov poll shows Conservatives 1% ahead (35 to 34)
but the Survation Poll (headlined by the Sun on Heywood & Middleton by-election as showing UKIP tripling their share but forgetting to say Labour up 10% on 2010 result) so massive swing from CONS & LIBDEMS to Labour if correct.

Well that is hardly decisive.

If Labour's lead is 3-4 points then you are in polling error territory.

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:11 pm

For Info

General Election 2010: Heywood and Middleton[7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Jim Dobbin 18,499 40.1 −8.2
Conservative Mike Holly 12,528 27.2 +5.4
Liberal Democrat Wera Hobhouse 10,474 22.7 +2.5
BNP Peter Greenwood 3,239 7.0 +2.6
UKIP Victoria Cecil 1,215 2.6 +0.7
Independent Chrissy Lee 170 0.4 N/A
Majority 5,971 12.9 −13.6
Turnout 46,125 57.5 +3.7
Labour Co-op hold Swing −6.8

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:12 pm

So it seems that offering a massive unfunded tax bribe, promising to kick the poor again (harder) and destroying human rights gives Honest Dave a 1% lead in the new YouGov poll. Break out the bunting.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:14 pm

Spacedone wrote:So it seems that offering a massive unfunded tax bribe, promising to kick the poor again (harder) and destroying human rights gives Honest Dave a 1% lead in the new YouGov poll. Break out the bunting.

Not sure it has or will.

Surely General Election campaign/debates will get him called out?
Or would that be "Look at that Ed geek!"

Post by **refitman** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:15 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 12 secs13 seconds ago
Heywood & Middleton poll (Survation):
LAB - 50% UKIP - 31% CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%
IIRC the Tories have doubled their vote. Then again hasn't Labours gone up as well?

Share in the last election:

2010 Share
LAB 40.11%
CON 27.16%
LIB 22.71%
OTH 7.39%
UKIP 2.63%

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conl ... dMiddleton" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:17 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:No surprise the yougov poll shows Conservatives 1% ahead (35 to 34)
but the Survation Poll (headlined by the Sun on Heywood & Middleton by-election as showing UKIP tripling their share but forgetting to say Labour up 10% on 2010 result) so massive swing from CONS & LIBDEMS to Labour if correct.
The text on YouGov's website about the poll is full of caveats and contextualising. The snapshot of the graph screams 'outlier'. But none of that stops their homepage headline trumpeting 'CONSERVATIVES OVERTAKE LABOUR IN VOTING INTENTION'. They should know better. On the other hand, this is Peter Kellner we're talking about.

Fits their narrative........

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:17 pm

Lot's of excitement over the Tories having a slight lead in polls tonight, last time it happened was after the 2012 budget, for a miniscule period of time, same will happen again.

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:18 pm

refitman wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 12 secs13 seconds ago
Heywood & Middleton poll (Survation):
LAB - 50% UKIP - 31% CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%
IIRC the Tories have doubled their vote. Then again hasn't Labours gone up as well?
Share in the last election:

2010 Share
LAB 40.11%
CON 27.16%
LIB 22.71%
OTH 7.39%
UKIP 2.63%

So LibDems heading for yet another lost deposit.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conl ... dMiddleton" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:19 pm

refitman wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 12 secs13 seconds ago
Heywood & Middleton poll (Survation):
LAB - 50% UKIP - 31% CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%
IIRC the Tories have doubled their vote. Then again hasn't Labours gone up as well?
Share in the last election:

2010 Share
LAB 40.11%
CON 27.16%
LIB 22.71%
OTH 7.39%
UKIP 2.63%

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conl ... dMiddleton" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I was thinking of the last constituency poll, which I think had the Tories on 7%

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:21 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
refitman wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote: IIRC the Tories have doubled their vote. Then again hasn't Labours gone up as well?
Share in the last election:

2010 Share
LAB 40.11%
CON 27.16%
LIB 22.71%
OTH 7.39%
UKIP 2.63%

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conl ... dMiddleton" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I was thinking of the last constituency poll, which I think had the Tories on 7%

There hasn't been a previous byelection poll for this seat.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:28 pm

Christ, I'm told Jaywick has been on BBC News!

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:30 pm

UKlPvoter ‏@UKlPVoter · 6 mins6 minutes ago
.@britainelects Let's see how many idiots have voted LibLabCon tonight then shall we.

What vote is there tonight ?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:34 pm

Times lead story sub-heading lying about Cameron leading for "first time in years".

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:37 pm

Will Black ‏@WillBlackWriter · 1 min1 minute ago
Tonight on #bbcqt Sebastian Fox, Michael Green and Corine Stockheath fight for the soul of Grant Shapps.

Not worth the effort.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:39 pm

Mark Ferguson is right on the polling tonight, yesterday Labour had a 7% lead, tonight he Tories a 1%, he doesn't believe either, fair point that.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:45 pm

Night all

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:47 pm

Sky news reporting on polls:

Westminster
Con 35 (+4)
Lab 34 (-2)
LD 6 (-1)
Ukip 14 (-1)
Others 5

H&M
Con 13 (-14)
Lab (+10)
LD 4 (-19)
Ukip 31 (+2)

@AAW thanks for the photos

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:48 pm

Right wing audience carefully selected for QT I notice.....

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:49 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
refitman wrote: Share in the last election:

2010 Share
LAB 40.11%
CON 27.16%
LIB 22.71%
OTH 7.39%
UKIP 2.63%

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conl ... dMiddleton" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I was thinking of the last constituency poll, which I think had the Tories on 7%
There hasn't been a previous byelection poll for this seat.

Quite right, I am misremembering stuff.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:54 pm

Is Northampton full of idiots?

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 10:57 pm

Temulkar wrote:Is Northampton full of idiots?

It is a bit of an odd place. Not sure if it is full of idiots though.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:01 pm

QT is not a good advert for the place.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:02 pm

UKIP woman being given lots of time. She's spoken more than any of the panellists.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:05 pm

FFS Dimbletwat has just blatantly spun the Ukip figure in that H&M poll but not mentioned the increase in Labours numbers to half of those polled !!

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:09 pm

Audience at political debate show talking about lack of political engagement.......

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:15 pm

pk1 wrote:Audience at political debate show talking about lack of political engagement.......

Look if I don't watch question time because it is wankery (and I am a political junkie) then I would suggest very few people do. The number of floating voters who watch it likely to be zero.

Turn it off, Tigers @ Orioles is a cracking game.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:18 pm

frightful_oik wrote:UKIP woman being given lots of time. She's spoken more than any of the panellists.

It was Farage in drag(I'm not watching so that not might not quite "work")

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:22 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
pk1 wrote:Audience at political debate show talking about lack of political engagement.......
Look if I don't watch question time because it is wankery (and I am a political junkie) then I would suggest very few people do. The number of floating voters who watch it likely to be zero.

Turn it off, Tigers @ Orioles is a cracking game.

Just struck me as rather stupid comment to make by an audience member whilst sitting in a political debate !

Tigers & Orioles ? Not a clue who either of them are but I do know they ain't what I call footy

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:26 pm

pk1 wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
pk1 wrote:Audience at political debate show talking about lack of political engagement.......
Look if I don't watch question time because it is wankery (and I am a political junkie) then I would suggest very few people do. The number of floating voters who watch it likely to be zero.

Turn it off, Tigers @ Orioles is a cracking game.
Just struck me as rather stupid comment to make by an audience member whilst sitting in a political debate !

Tigers & Orioles ? Not a clue who either of them are but I do know they ain't what I call footy

Fair point.

I have nearly identical sporting tastes to Weird Ed Miliband. He just follows the wrong team.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:30 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote: Fair point.

I have nearly identical sporting tastes to Weird Ed Miliband. He just follows the wrong team.

My son emailed me and asked me for the password to BT sport as he wanted to watch the very same game...

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:34 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote: Fair point.

I have nearly identical sporting tastes to Weird Ed Miliband. He just follows the wrong team.
My son emailed me and asked me for the password to BT sport as he wanted to watch the very same game...

It is a great game 2-3 top of 3rd.

It helps that the ground is absolutely tiny. If the ball goes up it is mostly gone.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:51 pm

pk1 wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
pk1 wrote:Audience at political debate show talking about lack of political engagement.......
Look if I don't watch question time because it is wankery (and I am a political junkie) then I would suggest very few people do. The number of floating voters who watch it likely to be zero.

Turn it off, Tigers @ Orioles is a cracking game.
Just struck me as rather stupid comment to make by an audience member whilst sitting in a political debate !

Tigers & Orioles ? Not a clue who either of them are but I do know they ain't what I call footy

My cousin took us to see the Yankees play the Tigers in '88. Still got the rain check somewhere.

The amazing thing, given the state of British football violence in the '80's was that we were in a stadium in a still-scary-at-the-time part of the Bronx, surrounded by guys bellowing insults at an ex-Yankees player who had moved to the Tigers and was fielding just below us. Then they'd go quiet and politely order BEER from a guy with a tray around his neck, as if they were buying a carton of Kia-Oro in my local Odeon. Could you imagine that at The Den or Stamford Bridge in '88?

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Oct, 2014 11:57 pm

Hobiejoe wrote:
pk1 wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote: Look if I don't watch question time because it is wankery (and I am a political junkie) then I would suggest very few people do. The number of floating voters who watch it likely to be zero.

Turn it off, Tigers @ Orioles is a cracking game.
Just struck me as rather stupid comment to make by an audience member whilst sitting in a political debate !

Tigers & Orioles ? Not a clue who either of them are but I do know they ain't what I call footy
My cousin took us to see the Yankees play the Tigers in '88. Still got the rain check somewhere.

The amazing thing, given the state of British football violence in the '80's was that we were in a stadium in a still-scary-at-the-time part of the Bronx, surrounded by guys bellowing insults at an ex-Yankees player who had moved to the Tigers and was fielding just below us. Then they'd go quiet and politely order BEER from a guy with a tray around his neck, as if they were buying a carton of Kia-Oro in my local Odeon. Could you imagine that at The Den or Stamford Bridge in '88?

I don't think you get Baseball hooligans, the game is just a bit slow and long to maintain the intensity. Mind you they can wave those little towels around in a threatening manner.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Fri 03 Oct, 2014 12:02 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote:
pk1 wrote: Just struck me as rather stupid comment to make by an audience member whilst sitting in a political debate !

Tigers & Orioles ? Not a clue who either of them are but I do know they ain't what I call footy
My cousin took us to see the Yankees play the Tigers in '88. Still got the rain check somewhere.

The amazing thing, given the state of British football violence in the '80's was that we were in a stadium in a still-scary-at-the-time part of the Bronx, surrounded by guys bellowing insults at an ex-Yankees player who had moved to the Tigers and was fielding just below us. Then they'd go quiet and politely order BEER from a guy with a tray around his neck, as if they were buying a carton of Kia-Oro in my local Odeon. Could you imagine that at The Den or Stamford Bridge in '88?
I don't think you get Baseball hooligans, the game is just a bit slow and long to maintain the intensity. Mind you they can wave those little towels around in a threatening manner.

The abuse had a certain intensity to it, but I think they were having fun with it. I also reckon the sheer size of the US helps - the Intercity Crew would have to become the Trans-Continental Frequent Flyers - so unlikely to have many opposition fans in the same ground.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 03 Oct, 2014 12:05 am

Sadiq Khan's response to the Tories human rights plan

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/9900569 ... racies-and" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and an even more brief response from Liberty

https://www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk ... ill-rights" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dominic Grieve calling them puerile

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ts-rulings" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Fri 03 Oct, 2014 12:11 am

AngryAsWell wrote:Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 12 secs13 seconds ago
Heywood & Middleton poll (Survation):
LAB - 50% UKIP - 31% CON - 13%
LDEM - 4%

That's pretty much what I expected. H&M is a Labour seat and what's happening is that northern constituencies are swapping the Tories for UKIP - and probably with the same net effect in Labour safe seats. In Tory marginals? Well, that's a completely different matter.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 03 Oct, 2014 12:23 am

Full document

http://www.headoflegal.com/2014/10/03/p ... ghts-plan/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;