Wednesday 2nd October 2019
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Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
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Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Morning!
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Good morfternoon.
Stanley Johnson on Sky. Again.
Stanley Johnson on Sky. Again.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
We all seem to be dumbstruck.
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Scottish secretary[Alister Jack] says claims no-deal Brexit will lead to serious disruption at ports are 'absolute nonsense'
Tory members applauded him warmly.
Jack’s comment did no[sic] take account of the fact that his own government has spent billions preparing for a no-deal Brexit, with the Department for Transport making plans to spend up to £300m on freight capacity to compensate for possible gridlock at cross-channel ports. (Politics Live, Guardian)
Edited to add his name - for future reference.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Like other Scottish Tory MPs, could well lose his seat in a snap election.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
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David Allen Green
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Boris Johnson: "We are not an anti-European country!"
[Pause.]
- silence
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Diane Abbott pretty good at PMQs.
Mind you, Dominic Raab.....
Mind you, Dominic Raab.....
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Her first ever outing in that role.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
There's not exactly a flurry of "Twitter" reaction (over at the Guardian) to what passed for a Prime Minister's Conference speech. In fact none at all, so far. A bit stuck for something to say? It was pretty bad by any standards.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Trolls saying Abbott forgot to ask her question when she first stood up.
When it turns out I think that it was Raab who came to the dispatch box before she'd had chance to ask him anything.
When it turns out I think that it was Raab who came to the dispatch box before she'd had chance to ask him anything.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
You watched it?PorFavor wrote:There's not exactly a flurry of "Twitter" reaction (over at the Guardian) to what passed for a Prime Minister's Conference speech. In fact none at all, so far. A bit stuck for something to say? It was pretty bad by any standards.
Poor you....
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Johnson is just a bit Spodeian in full flow, isn't he?
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
While Boris Johnson PM is busy fulfilling right wing populist wet dreams of leaving the EU "do or die" on the hardest possible terms, the Boris Johnson that turned up to this speech, to the bemusement of his adoring fans, was cosmopolitan, internationalist London Mayor Boris Johnson who loves Europe and has lofty, never to be fulfilled dreams of investment and growth that is completely at odds with abandoning the single market and "f**k business".PorFavor wrote:There's not exactly a flurry of "Twitter" reaction (over at the Guardian) to what passed for a Prime Minister's Conference speech. In fact none at all, so far. A bit stuck for something to say? It was pretty bad by any standards.
It was quite schizophrenic, to be frank. The BBC, nevertheless, managed to drum up some swooning support, "best Tory leader since Thatcher" blah, blah, who he extensively invoked btw, without actually naming her, obviously inviting the comparisons which I'm happy to grant him if he does manage "no deal" Brexit as he will indeed have managed to f**k the country over on a scale not seen since the 1980s. We're not there yet, though and Johnson mostly comes across as trying to bask in the light of not yet achieved glories that highlights his basic flaw of sheer laziness. He has no time for the work of achieving anything, even the non-work of not getting a deal, and wants to cut straight to the adoration. I'm not sure it works that way, not even in the Tory party, and the pressure to actually deliver is going to make itself felt sooner or later, however fabulous he thinks he is.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Yes he's quite the opposite of Thatcher who certainly couldn't be accused of laziness and only developed as an "iconic" leader as she went on.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Five local council byelections last week:
Rochford DC - Tory gain from Residents (who did not contest this vacancy) with almost half the vote, in a ward that split 1Res/1C/1LD in the 2016 all-out elections. Tories took the LibDem seat in 2018 and then held their own earlier this year, so this gives them a clean sweep here - there was actually hardly any swing between them and the second placed LibDems since May. Greens stood here this time and scored 13%, very similar to the Labour score last time round (they sat this one out despite standing in the previous three elections)
Ipswich DC - Labour hold with just over 50%, a small drop since May. This ward split 2Lab/1LD in the 2002 all out elections, but the LibDems then won it in every election up to and including 2010 - only for the coalition to lead to a sharp drop in support as in many other cases, and Labour gained the first seat by a big margin in 2011 and have won every time since (including taking the last LibDem seat in a previous 2013 by-election) LibDems moved into second place with just under 20%, doubling their share since earlier this year and moving ahead of the Tories who also dropped slightly. Greens down 6 points to 11% and last place.
Luton - Labour gain from Tory in a ward that has previously elected 2 Tories in every election since 2003, though the result earlier this year was close after previous contests had been much safer for the Tories. Labour won with a relatively modest 37%, down about 4 points since May, though this was still a swing of about 3% to them since the Tories fell by about 10% and that was enough for a notable win. The above was explained by the LibDems more than doubling their share to a quarter of the vote - so their customary third place but a much better result than has been the norm. Greens tried their luck this time but could make little impact, scoring just 2%.
Crawley DC/West Sussex CC - this "double header" had strikingly similar results for both seats, and both very good holds for the Tories - the district ward has been a classic "bellwether" since it narrowly returned two Labour councillors in the 2004 all-out elections; voting Tory in 2007 and 2008 before Labour won back a seat in a previous 2010 byelection, then Tory wins in 2011/15/19 whilst Labour won in 2012 and 2016 - this May saw Tories win both seats in all out elections though the second seat was held only narrowly. This time round there was no doubt however as they advanced 12 points to 57% and a double figure swing from Labour - LibDems took 6% having not stood earlier this May, ahead of Greens who dropped 10% to 6% and then just 0.4 for the "Justice Party" (basically a local eccentric) The county division (a new one for that election) voted Tory by a fairly narrow margin in 2017, but a 6 point increase took them to over half the vote and safety. Labour down 10% to under 30%, LibDems doubling their score to 12%, Greens also slightly up and the Justice Party taking the same 0.4% as before.
Six contests tomorrow, including an unusual "dual vacancy" in Scotland.
Rochford DC - Tory gain from Residents (who did not contest this vacancy) with almost half the vote, in a ward that split 1Res/1C/1LD in the 2016 all-out elections. Tories took the LibDem seat in 2018 and then held their own earlier this year, so this gives them a clean sweep here - there was actually hardly any swing between them and the second placed LibDems since May. Greens stood here this time and scored 13%, very similar to the Labour score last time round (they sat this one out despite standing in the previous three elections)
Ipswich DC - Labour hold with just over 50%, a small drop since May. This ward split 2Lab/1LD in the 2002 all out elections, but the LibDems then won it in every election up to and including 2010 - only for the coalition to lead to a sharp drop in support as in many other cases, and Labour gained the first seat by a big margin in 2011 and have won every time since (including taking the last LibDem seat in a previous 2013 by-election) LibDems moved into second place with just under 20%, doubling their share since earlier this year and moving ahead of the Tories who also dropped slightly. Greens down 6 points to 11% and last place.
Luton - Labour gain from Tory in a ward that has previously elected 2 Tories in every election since 2003, though the result earlier this year was close after previous contests had been much safer for the Tories. Labour won with a relatively modest 37%, down about 4 points since May, though this was still a swing of about 3% to them since the Tories fell by about 10% and that was enough for a notable win. The above was explained by the LibDems more than doubling their share to a quarter of the vote - so their customary third place but a much better result than has been the norm. Greens tried their luck this time but could make little impact, scoring just 2%.
Crawley DC/West Sussex CC - this "double header" had strikingly similar results for both seats, and both very good holds for the Tories - the district ward has been a classic "bellwether" since it narrowly returned two Labour councillors in the 2004 all-out elections; voting Tory in 2007 and 2008 before Labour won back a seat in a previous 2010 byelection, then Tory wins in 2011/15/19 whilst Labour won in 2012 and 2016 - this May saw Tories win both seats in all out elections though the second seat was held only narrowly. This time round there was no doubt however as they advanced 12 points to 57% and a double figure swing from Labour - LibDems took 6% having not stood earlier this May, ahead of Greens who dropped 10% to 6% and then just 0.4 for the "Justice Party" (basically a local eccentric) The county division (a new one for that election) voted Tory by a fairly narrow margin in 2017, but a 6 point increase took them to over half the vote and safety. Labour down 10% to under 30%, LibDems doubling their score to 12%, Greens also slightly up and the Justice Party taking the same 0.4% as before.
Six contests tomorrow, including an unusual "dual vacancy" in Scotland.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Johnson appears to think he's doing something clever by taking the EU's emergency no deal response plans and making them our 'take it or leave it' proposal, but there are two huge problems with this, to the extent that - and I know, I repeat myself (I do it all the time, I get told by students 'we know this story' very very often) - once again this is a dumb idea of what a clever idea is.
So, firstly, what we're saying is 'If you agree this, or don't agree this, then this happens anyway, so you might as well agree it, because if you agree it then it's just the same for you as if you don't agree it, but it's much much better for us'. That is a tough sell in any circumstances. In our current context, and given Anglo-Irish history, it is a long long way beyond taking the piss.
And secondly, I know how clumsy analogies can be in all this, but as quite a closely mapped analogy, I know that if everything were to go very very badly wrong then if I absolutely had to I could remortage my house and pay for private medical care and pay privately for supplies for my kids, who both have Type 1 Diabetes. But I also know that there are absolutely no circumstances at all in which I would ever actively agree to create such a situation. That, again, is what we are proposing the EU do.
So, firstly, what we're saying is 'If you agree this, or don't agree this, then this happens anyway, so you might as well agree it, because if you agree it then it's just the same for you as if you don't agree it, but it's much much better for us'. That is a tough sell in any circumstances. In our current context, and given Anglo-Irish history, it is a long long way beyond taking the piss.
And secondly, I know how clumsy analogies can be in all this, but as quite a closely mapped analogy, I know that if everything were to go very very badly wrong then if I absolutely had to I could remortage my house and pay for private medical care and pay privately for supplies for my kids, who both have Type 1 Diabetes. But I also know that there are absolutely no circumstances at all in which I would ever actively agree to create such a situation. That, again, is what we are proposing the EU do.
I still believe in a town called Hope
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
A Modest Proposal.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Good post Adam
Almost by definition, emergency contingency planning is not going to be a contender for a sustainable, long term solution.
Almost by definition, emergency contingency planning is not going to be a contender for a sustainable, long term solution.
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
The Financial Times’ George Parker thinks the DUP might not have read the government’s plans properly.
George Parker
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@GeorgeWParker
Confusing DUP statement: "These proposals would ensure that Northern Ireland would be out of the EU Customs Union and the Single Market as with the rest of the United Kingdom." Err. Have they read it? It would create a single regulatory zone in Ireland, border in Irish Sea
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3:35 PM - Oct 2, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... rn-ireland" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
[youtube]XjG7bMta0Sc[/youtube]The word from EU sources is that the new proposal doesn’t look like it’s going to make it into the famed “tunnel” – that’s the secret, detailed negotiating format reserved for EU endgame negotiations.
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Varadkar says no!
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Apparently Johnson will not attend the EU summit on 17 October (assuming his deal is rejected).
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Tranche. That's a novel euphemism, isn't it?The official also conceded that the new deal could involve another tranche of money going to Northern Ireland. Asked about the mention of a “New Deal for Northern Ireland” mentioned in Johnson’s letter, the official said: “I wouldn’t dispute that the support is likely to have financial implications.”(Politics Live, Guardian)
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Misspelling,a trench of money.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Johnson's deal is worse than May's.
Corbyn.
Ouch!
Corbyn.
Ouch!
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Remarkably, "tinged letterboxes" is Boris Johnson's favourite slogan (3'1,3,6,4).
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Johnson aide is dicing communism disastrously (7,8).
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Has anyone else noticed massive on line trolling of Leo Varadkar?
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Government plans to prorogue Parliament next Tuesday.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Queen's Speech on 16 October as planned.
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Government plans to prorogue Parliament next Tuesday.
No PMQs, then.
Edited - ditched the question mark in favour of a full-stop. Don't know why I posed it as a question in the first place. S'obvious, innit?
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... eportation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
No citizenJA today, then. Don't really blame her if she's taking a breather from all this.
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Alex Wickham
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@alexwickham
NEW: Boris Johnson's senior aides have ordered Tory MPs to call the EU 'crazy' if it rejects their new Brexit proposals
Internal memo sent tonight reveals how the govt plans to blame Brussels for 'ending negotiations' if talks break down
Read it here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/eu ... -tory-memo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … (Politics Live, Guardian)
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
And Barnier is now being quoted as describing the plans as 'a trap', and that we are indeed still lost outside the tunnel.PorFavor wrote:Alex Wickham
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@alexwickham
NEW: Boris Johnson's senior aides have ordered Tory MPs to call the EU 'crazy' if it rejects their new Brexit proposals
Internal memo sent tonight reveals how the govt plans to blame Brussels for 'ending negotiations' if talks break down
Read it here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/eu ... -tory-memo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … (Politics Live, Guardian)
I still believe in a town called Hope
Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
And if we don't leave on 31st it won't be because Johnson has broken his 'do or die' pledge, but because the rest of the EU have broken it for him.
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Re: Wednesday 2nd October 2019
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