Wednesday 2nd October 2019

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 7:24 am

Morning!

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 9:43 am

Good morfternoon.

Stanley Johnson on Sky. Again.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 9:53 am

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 10:52 am

We all seem to be dumbstruck.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 11:08 am

Scottish secretary[Alister Jack] says claims no-deal Brexit will lead to serious disruption at ports are 'absolute nonsense'

Tory members applauded him warmly.

Jack’s comment did no[sic] take account of the fact that his own government has spent billions preparing for a no-deal Brexit, with the Department for Transport making plans to spend up to £300m on freight capacity to compensate for possible gridlock at cross-channel ports. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Edited to add his name - for future reference.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 11:15 am

Like other Scottish Tory MPs, could well lose his seat in a snap election.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 11:54 am

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
Boris Johnson: "We are not an anti-European country!"

[Pause.]

- silence

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 12:13 pm

Diane Abbott pretty good at PMQs.

Mind you, Dominic Raab.....

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 12:46 pm

Her first ever outing in that role.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 12:49 pm

There's not exactly a flurry of "Twitter" reaction (over at the Guardian) to what passed for a Prime Minister's Conference speech. In fact none at all, so far. A bit stuck for something to say? It was pretty bad by any standards.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 12:49 pm

Trolls saying Abbott forgot to ask her question when she first stood up.

When it turns out I think that it was Raab who came to the dispatch box before she'd had chance to ask him anything.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 12:50 pm

PorFavor wrote:There's not exactly a flurry of "Twitter" reaction (over at the Guardian) to what passed for a Prime Minister's Conference speech. In fact none at all, so far. A bit stuck for something to say? It was pretty bad by any standards.

You watched it?

Poor you....

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 12:51 pm

Johnson is just a bit Spodeian in full flow, isn't he?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 1:06 pm

PorFavor wrote:There's not exactly a flurry of "Twitter" reaction (over at the Guardian) to what passed for a Prime Minister's Conference speech. In fact none at all, so far. A bit stuck for something to say? It was pretty bad by any standards.

While Boris Johnson PM is busy fulfilling right wing populist wet dreams of leaving the EU "do or die" on the hardest possible terms, the Boris Johnson that turned up to this speech, to the bemusement of his adoring fans, was cosmopolitan, internationalist London Mayor Boris Johnson who loves Europe and has lofty, never to be fulfilled dreams of investment and growth that is completely at odds with abandoning the single market and "f**k business".

It was quite schizophrenic, to be frank. The BBC, nevertheless, managed to drum up some swooning support, "best Tory leader since Thatcher" blah, blah, who he extensively invoked btw, without actually naming her, obviously inviting the comparisons which I'm happy to grant him if he does manage "no deal" Brexit as he will indeed have managed to f**k the country over on a scale not seen since the 1980s. We're not there yet, though and Johnson mostly comes across as trying to bask in the light of not yet achieved glories that highlights his basic flaw of sheer laziness. He has no time for the work of achieving anything, even the non-work of not getting a deal, and wants to cut straight to the adoration. I'm not sure it works that way, not even in the Tory party, and the pressure to actually deliver is going to make itself felt sooner or later, however fabulous he thinks he is.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 1:52 pm

Yes he's quite the opposite of Thatcher who certainly couldn't be accused of laziness and only developed as an "iconic" leader as she went on.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 3:19 pm

Five local council byelections last week:

Rochford DC - Tory gain from Residents (who did not contest this vacancy) with almost half the vote, in a ward that split 1Res/1C/1LD in the 2016 all-out elections. Tories took the LibDem seat in 2018 and then held their own earlier this year, so this gives them a clean sweep here - there was actually hardly any swing between them and the second placed LibDems since May. Greens stood here this time and scored 13%, very similar to the Labour score last time round (they sat this one out despite standing in the previous three elections)

Ipswich DC - Labour hold with just over 50%, a small drop since May. This ward split 2Lab/1LD in the 2002 all out elections, but the LibDems then won it in every election up to and including 2010 - only for the coalition to lead to a sharp drop in support as in many other cases, and Labour gained the first seat by a big margin in 2011 and have won every time since (including taking the last LibDem seat in a previous 2013 by-election) LibDems moved into second place with just under 20%, doubling their share since earlier this year and moving ahead of the Tories who also dropped slightly. Greens down 6 points to 11% and last place.

Luton - Labour gain from Tory in a ward that has previously elected 2 Tories in every election since 2003, though the result earlier this year was close after previous contests had been much safer for the Tories. Labour won with a relatively modest 37%, down about 4 points since May, though this was still a swing of about 3% to them since the Tories fell by about 10% and that was enough for a notable win. The above was explained by the LibDems more than doubling their share to a quarter of the vote - so their customary third place but a much better result than has been the norm. Greens tried their luck this time but could make little impact, scoring just 2%.

Crawley DC/West Sussex CC - this "double header" had strikingly similar results for both seats, and both very good holds for the Tories - the district ward has been a classic "bellwether" since it narrowly returned two Labour councillors in the 2004 all-out elections; voting Tory in 2007 and 2008 before Labour won back a seat in a previous 2010 byelection, then Tory wins in 2011/15/19 whilst Labour won in 2012 and 2016 - this May saw Tories win both seats in all out elections though the second seat was held only narrowly. This time round there was no doubt however as they advanced 12 points to 57% and a double figure swing from Labour - LibDems took 6% having not stood earlier this May, ahead of Greens who dropped 10% to 6% and then just 0.4 for the "Justice Party" (basically a local eccentric) The county division (a new one for that election) voted Tory by a fairly narrow margin in 2017, but a 6 point increase took them to over half the vote and safety. Labour down 10% to under 30%, LibDems doubling their score to 12%, Greens also slightly up and the Justice Party taking the same 0.4% as before.

Six contests tomorrow, including an unusual "dual vacancy" in Scotland.

Post by **adam** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 3:20 pm

Johnson appears to think he's doing something clever by taking the EU's emergency no deal response plans and making them our 'take it or leave it' proposal, but there are two huge problems with this, to the extent that - and I know, I repeat myself (I do it all the time, I get told by students 'we know this story' very very often) - once again this is a dumb idea of what a clever idea is.

So, firstly, what we're saying is 'If you agree this, or don't agree this, then this happens anyway, so you might as well agree it, because if you agree it then it's just the same for you as if you don't agree it, but it's much much better for us'. That is a tough sell in any circumstances. In our current context, and given Anglo-Irish history, it is a long long way beyond taking the piss.

And secondly, I know how clumsy analogies can be in all this, but as quite a closely mapped analogy, I know that if everything were to go very very badly wrong then if I absolutely had to I could remortage my house and pay for private medical care and pay privately for supplies for my kids, who both have Type 1 Diabetes. But I also know that there are absolutely no circumstances at all in which I would ever actively agree to create such a situation. That, again, is what we are proposing the EU do.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 3:28 pm

A Modest Proposal.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 3:35 pm

Good post Adam

Almost by definition, emergency contingency planning is not going to be a contender for a sustainable, long term solution.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 3:44 pm

The Financial Times’ George Parker thinks the DUP might not have read the government’s plans properly.

George Parker
✔
@GeorgeWParker

Confusing DUP statement: "These proposals would ensure that Northern Ireland would be out of the EU Customs Union and the Single Market as with the rest of the United Kingdom." Err. Have they read it? It would create a single regulatory zone in Ireland, border in Irish Sea
22
3:35 PM - Oct 2, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:00 pm

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... rn-ireland" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **adam** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:01 pm

The word from EU sources is that the new proposal doesn’t look like it’s going to make it into the famed “tunnel” – that’s the secret, detailed negotiating format reserved for EU endgame negotiations.

[youtube]XjG7bMta0Sc[/youtube]

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:19 pm

Varadkar says no!

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:20 pm

https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:21 pm

Apparently Johnson will not attend the EU summit on 17 October (assuming his deal is rejected).

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:21 pm

The official also conceded that the new deal could involve another tranche of money going to Northern Ireland. Asked about the mention of a “New Deal for Northern Ireland” mentioned in Johnson’s letter, the official said: “I wouldn’t dispute that the support is likely to have financial implications.”(Politics Live, Guardian)

Tranche. That's a novel euphemism, isn't it?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:27 pm

Misspelling,a trench of money.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:54 pm

Johnson's deal is worse than May's.

Corbyn.

Ouch!

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 4:59 pm

Remarkably, "tinged letterboxes" is Boris Johnson's favourite slogan (3'1,3,6,4).

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 5:06 pm

Johnson aide is dicing communism disastrously (7,8).

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 5:23 pm

Has anyone else noticed massive on line trolling of Leo Varadkar?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 5:25 pm

Government plans to prorogue Parliament next Tuesday.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 5:26 pm

Queen's Speech on 16 October as planned.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 6:23 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Government plans to prorogue Parliament next Tuesday.

No PMQs, then.

Edited - ditched the question mark in favour of a full-stop. Don't know why I posed it as a question in the first place. S'obvious, innit?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 8:23 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... eportation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 9:42 pm

No citizenJA today, then. Don't really blame her if she's taking a breather from all this.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 9:50 pm

Alex Wickham
✔
@alexwickham

NEW: Boris Johnson's senior aides have ordered Tory MPs to call the EU 'crazy' if it rejects their new Brexit proposals

Internal memo sent tonight reveals how the govt plans to blame Brussels for 'ending negotiations' if talks break down

Read it here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/eu ... -tory-memo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … (Politics Live, Guardian)

Post by **adam** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 9:52 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Alex Wickham
✔
@alexwickham

NEW: Boris Johnson's senior aides have ordered Tory MPs to call the EU 'crazy' if it rejects their new Brexit proposals

Internal memo sent tonight reveals how the govt plans to blame Brussels for 'ending negotiations' if talks break down

Read it here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/eu ... -tory-memo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … (Politics Live, Guardian)

And Barnier is now being quoted as describing the plans as 'a trap', and that we are indeed still lost outside the tunnel.

Post by **adam** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 10:36 pm

And if we don't leave on 31st it won't be because Johnson has broken his 'do or die' pledge, but because the rest of the EU have broken it for him.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 02 Oct, 2019 11:11 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-engla ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;