Monday 14th October 2019

Post by **refitman** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 6:46 am

Morning all.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 8:51 am

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ls-england" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 9:56 am

Morning all.

I see that Laura Norder has been dragged kicking and screaming out of the cupboard to appear in the Queen's Speech today.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 9:59 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... vid-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:01 am

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... side-group" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:10 am

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... vid-brexit

We are not going to leave the EU on Halloween unless a deal is passed.

I don't know why the Guardian is still going along with the pretence that the government can just ignore the Benn Act.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:25 am

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... side-group

As many as that?

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:29 am

Fears rise in benefits system automation could plunge claimants deeper into poverty

The Department for Work and Pensions has hired nearly 1,000 new IT staff in the past 18 months, and has increased spending to about £8m a year on a specialist “intelligent automation garage” where computer scientists are developing over 100 welfare robots, deep learning and intelligent automation for use in the welfare system.

#GTTO

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:33 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... vid-brexit
We are not going to leave the EU on Halloween unless a deal is passed.

I don't know why the Guardian is still going along with the pretence that the government can just ignore the Benn Act.

We could most certainly leave on the 31st with no deal. If an extension is requested and turned down, we crash out by default. That this is unlikely, doesn't mean it can't happen. Also, Johnson could, with a new parliament, put the May deal before parliament again and if it is passed refuse to ask for an extension in order to ratify it and crash out anyway. Again, however unlikely this seems, I believe it is possible and keeps Johnson within the law, if not the spirit.

I don't think either scenario is especially likely, but I'm uncertain what Johnson's main motivation is - winning a majority or achieving a hard Brexit. If the latter, who knows what lengths he'll go to. If the former, who knows what route he thinks most likely to deliver it.

If he does present either a new deal or May's deal, one scenario he would particularly dislike, though, I suspect, is one where it is passed with the caveat that first an extension must be secured and it put to the public in a referendum before ratification. It would certainly be interesting to see what he would do in these circumstances, though it's a bit of an outside chance. Right now I'm expecting Johnson will climbdown on asking for an extension and will be rewarded with the GE he obviously wants.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:43 am

You are right in your caveats, but I assume you know what I meant as well.

Johnson just ignoring the "Surrender Bill" without any consequence is simply not an option, and people should stop pretending otherwise.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:48 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:You are right in your caveats, but I assume you know what I meant as well.

Johnson just ignoring the "Surrender Bill" without any consequence is simply not an option, and people should stop pretending otherwise.

It certainly shouldn't be.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:56 am

More importantly, we're not going to be leaving the EU on the 31st even is a deal is passed.

Very occasionally someone on the BBC will remember this, that it won't be ratified in time. Even if we rushed it, the EU won't be willing to do so. I can't see parliament not acting to request an extension in those circumstances.

It seems more likely Johnson expects to be prevented from leaving on 31st and wishes to blame the opposition as if it was something that could have happened and the media are helping him by giving the public the impression that something that hasn't been possible pretty much since May stepped down and the leadership contest started, is still a goer.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 12:09 pm

https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-e ... peech-2019" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **adam** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 12:17 pm

Willow904 wrote:More importantly, we're not going to be leaving the EU on the 31st even is a deal is passed.

Very occasionally someone on the BBC will remember this, that it won't be ratified in time. Even if we rushed it, the EU won't be willing to do so. I can't see parliament not acting to request an extension in those circumstances.

It seems more likely Johnson expects to be prevented from leaving on 31st and wishes to blame the opposition as if it was something that could have happened and the media are helping him by giving the public the impression that something that hasn't been possible pretty much since May stepped down and the leadership contest started, is still a goer.

Last year's commentary reminded us that we needed a deal in place by this time last year in order to be ready to leave at the end of March.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 12:51 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... vid-brexit
We are not going to leave the EU on Halloween unless a deal is passed.

I don't know why the Guardian is still going along with the pretence that the government can just ignore the Benn Act.

I don't either. I resent the hell out of it because it's nothing but confusing.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 12:51 pm

Willow904 wrote:More importantly, we're not going to be leaving the EU on the 31st even is a deal is passed.

Very occasionally someone on the BBC will remember this, that it won't be ratified in time. Even if we rushed it, the EU won't be willing to do so. I can't see parliament not acting to request an extension in those circumstances.

It seems more likely Johnson expects to be prevented from leaving on 31st and wishes to blame the opposition as if it was something that could have happened and the media are helping him by giving the public the impression that something that hasn't been possible pretty much since May stepped down and the leadership contest started, is still a goer.

'Do not waste this time'

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 12:51 pm

Good afternoon, everyone.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 12:55 pm

Willow904 wrote:More importantly, we're not going to be leaving the EU on the 31st even is a deal is passed.

Very occasionally someone on the BBC will remember this, that it won't be ratified in time. Even if we rushed it, the EU won't be willing to do so. I can't see parliament not acting to request an extension in those circumstances.

It seems more likely Johnson expects to be prevented from leaving on 31st and wishes to blame the opposition as if it was something that could have happened and the media are helping him by giving the public the impression that something that hasn't been possible pretty much since May stepped down and the leadership contest started, is still a goer.

(cJA bold)
Yes, exactly. This is what I meant about the confusing, sloppy way some media are reporting what's going on.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 1:03 pm

In an article for BuzzFeed Alex Wickham and Alberto Nardelli suggest No 10 is mulling over whether it could accept a Brexit extension to bolt down the details of the new backstop plan being considered by the UK and the EU - justifying this on the grounds that in spirit Brexit would have been delivered by the end of October.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 1:07 pm

Matt cartoon today

'I favour a hard Xmas - no sending money, no trading gifts and definitely no free movement of relatives'

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 1:07 pm

adam wrote:---
Last year's commentary reminded us that we needed a deal in place by this time last year in order to be ready to leave at the end of March.

(cJA edit)
Yes, thank you for the reminder. Essential information about Brexit realities not reported properly makes me nervous.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 2:07 pm

Interesting timing...there's a rather a lot of these Promoted Tweets around right now.

Go Turkey
‏
Verified account

@GoTurkey
Oct 12
More
If you want to witness the mysteries of historic heroes in Turkey, this is the right time, right place...

One might think they had a slight problem with their image to the outside world that needed sorting out...

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 2:33 pm

Anyway, it seems that the Sultan has now got Assad firmly on the side of the Kurds - was that really part of the plan?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 3:57 pm

Boris Johnson just said we had "the best NHS workers in the world". Is it just me or is that not quite the compliment it sounds? Surely we have the only NHS workers in the world....

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 4:23 pm

Oh and the political chit chat at the village hub today included the statement "compared to May, Johnson will get something done". There was a lot of agreement on this from people of various viewpoints and Brexit leanings. So all those lost votes and zero movement on Brexit isn't coming across, fantasy is trumping reality, I'm afraid, and I fear people will vote for him to break the impasse if we have a snap election because he's actually viewed as capable, God help us.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 4:46 pm

'Lynch mob politics': experts denounce plans for longer jail terms

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... jail-terms

The Prison Reform Trust pointed out: “Judges can already hand down two-thirds sentences in certain cases, for example if it’s one of 100 specific offences or if the person poses a risk to the public.”

Chris Daw QC, a criminal and fraud expert, tweeted: “Make no mistake, the current Tory approach to crime and punishment is just dangerous, populist electioneering. Nowhere in the free world do longer and longer prison sentences do anything good for society.”

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 4:53 pm

I also thought that Johnson would get 'something' done, and assumed that the 'something' would be a complete disaster.

Which in turn might precipitate action from sensible MPs. Unfortunately they're in short supply.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 5:09 pm

Adam Bienkov
‏
Verified account

@AdamBienkov
26m26 minutes ago
More
I asked Boris Johnson’s spokesman if they could point to any evidence of widespread voter fraud at the ballot box at previous elections.

They weren’t able to.

Well of course they couldn't - this isn't evidence-based policy going on here. It's a dog whistle to encourage Brexit Party supporters to return to the fold.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 5:11 pm

Willow904 wrote:Oh and the political chit chat at the village hub today included the statement "compared to May, Johnson will get something done". There was a lot of agreement on this from people of various viewpoints and Brexit leanings. So all those lost votes and zero movement on Brexit isn't coming across, fantasy is trumping reality, I'm afraid, and I fear people will vote for him to break the impasse if we have a snap election because he's actually viewed as capable, God help us.

The same voters almost certainly thought May would "get something done" not that long ago. Reality tends to override fantasy in the end.

If we don't leave on Halloween the PM will blame everybody but himself, and the sort of people you heard today will believe him.

But its hard to believe his reputation as someone who will "get something done" won't take a knock, nonetheless.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 6:13 pm

It appears that there will be no eleventh hour for Johnson to win a blinking contest,

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 55716.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 6:15 pm

He's shown he's serious, he just needs the majority to do it....

I don't think he's going to find more takers for a hard Tory Brexit than May did, but if he can convince people to vote for anyone but Corbyn he might not have to and the current polling and general mood I'm picking up on that may not be hard to do.

As for the Brexit Party, I will only believe they are a genuine threat to the Tories when I see them standing against them.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 6:19 pm

In fact, out of curiosity, does anyone live in a constituency where a Brexit Party candidate has declared?
We have a full slate on the left(ish) - Labour, Libdem, Green + NHA, but nothing on the right, yet. No Ukip, Brexit Party or, indeed, Rees-Mogg. I'm gong off Wiki, which has been adding them to the constituency listing pretty much as they've declared.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 6:29 pm

Ok, I've found one. Brexit Party are fielding a candidate against Liam Fox, majority 17,000. I think he's probably still safe.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 6:36 pm

Found another one. Brexit Party are standing a candidate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Tory majority just 5,000. That one should be a bit more exciting!

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 8:35 pm

Willow904 wrote:Oh and the political chit chat at the village hub today included the statement "compared to May, Johnson will get something done". There was a lot of agreement on this from people of various viewpoints and Brexit leanings. So all those lost votes and zero movement on Brexit isn't coming across, fantasy is trumping reality, I'm afraid, and I fear people will vote for him to break the impasse if we have a snap election because he's actually viewed as capable, God help us.

Exactly.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 8:38 pm

Unfortunately I think the ABC mentality will be strong in 'us'.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 9:00 pm

Excoriating from Toynbee

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... son-labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

sham-queens-speech-end-boris-johnson-labour

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:12 pm

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

Post by **adam** » Mon 14 Oct, 2019 10:51 pm

Willow904 wrote:Found another one. Brexit Party are standing a candidate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Tory majority just 5,000. That one should be a bit more exciting!

I'm in a seat where a BP candidate would make a difference - tory majority of about 6500 votes - and although it's not entirely clear it seems we will have one - he's been in touch with the Labour candidate to declare himself to her and he's been out canvassing. The Tory MP, Kawczynski, was in the ERG but left, appears to be very strongly pro-Johnson these days but that doesn't seem to be enough.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 15 Oct, 2019 12:12 am

As expected.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... s-watchdog" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 15 Oct, 2019 12:13 am

https://www.cqc.org.uk/publications/maj ... state-care" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.cqc.org.uk/news/releases/gr ... s-staffing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;