Thursday 17th October 2019

Post by **refitman** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 6:38 am

Morning all.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:22 am

Drunken bar ritualist says he will probably one for Johnson's "deal" (8,4).

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:22 am

Which is odd because there doesn't seem to be a deal!

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 10:16 am

This thread is about Syria but it has resonance here and in the US.

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For this reason, as we shift to a new stage in Syria's history, it is important to know that we will probably shift from instability caused by military incursions to instability caused by massive economic and legal inequality that we should not expect the regime to end or change.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 10:33 am

Looks like the DUP have said no (or should that be "NO!!!!!")

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 10:38 am

So the only way for Johnson to get his deal through will be to attach a Referendum.

Which presumably he won't consider.

I believe there has to be a vote proposed by the Government if Parliament is to sit on Saturday as envisaged. Anyone know more and when it is?

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 10:51 am

Apart from the fact that Johnson is vanishingly unlikely to agree to a ref, it brings with it the horror of at least 6 months more of tory govt.

Post by **adam** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 10:53 am

Given what has happened recently, it seems overwhelmingly likely that parliament can find a way to pass a confirmatory referendum into law regardless of what the government thinks. Whether it will get it together to actually do so is another question. Whether the rest of the EU will throw up its hands at the delay again is unlikely but not impossible. It still seems reasonably unlikely that Johnson can get anything through parliament without the DUP - not just because of their votes, but because the ERG have consistently said they will take their lead from the DUP.

Post by **adam** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 10:54 am

gilsey wrote:Apart from the fact that Johnson is vanishingly unlikely to agree to a ref, it brings with it the horror of at least 6 months more of tory govt.

It feels like the prospect of a GE are receding - I wouldn't be at all surprised, if Johnson gets a WA through now, if he immediately follows it up by offering to restore the whip to tories who've lost it, and we will be back to needing tory backbenchers (or even tories who are briefly not Tories) voting down his government.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:07 am

So there is a deal!

Post by **adam** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:07 am

Great comment BTL at the guardian.

Number 10 are now saying that a deal has been done. Congratulations. After three years of hard work, two prime ministers and holding all the cards, you have beaten the EU into accepting one of their own initial suggestions, which Parliament will now reject.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:08 am

Labour will whip for a confirmatory referendum.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:15 am

So presumably Parliament will vote to sit on Saturday and there will be a vote on an amendment to attach a confirmatory referendum.

Would the amendment carry?

And would the bill then pass?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:16 am

Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
·
6m
65 pages of changes to the original withdrawal agreement can be read here. [Official EU link].

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/b ... reland.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:17 am

Corbyn: “This sell out deal won’t bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.”

Post by **adam** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:21 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Corbyn: “This sell out deal won’t bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.”

That's only going to infuriate people. He didn't say 'The People's Vote'. With capitals.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:25 am

adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Corbyn: “This sell out deal won’t bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote.”
That's only going to infuriate people. He didn't say 'The People's Vote'. With capitals.

Post by **adam** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 11:31 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:So presumably Parliament will vote to sit on Saturday and there will be a vote on an amendment to attach a confirmatory referendum.

Would the amendment carry?

And would the bill then pass?

The bill as amended can just be modelled on the AV referendum bill - pass the new system into law, but make enactment of the law dependent on a yes vote in a mandatory referendum.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 12:18 pm

Johnson trying to say its either this deal or no deal - that is bulls***ting shurely?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 12:18 pm

Good afternoon, everyone.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 12:23 pm

Well done Boris!

The Economist
‏
Verified account

@TheEconomist
Follow Follow @TheEconomist
More
The new #BrexitDeal is economically worse for Britain than the one negotiated by Theresa May last year

I notice all the usual suspects cheering on the PM as if he's just got a marvellous deal done.

Lost Soul · Post by **Lost Soul** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 1:32 pm

On a positive note - Faridge isn't happy !

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'This is not brexit '

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 1:52 pm

Lost Soul wrote:On a positive note - Faridge isn't happy !

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'This is not brexit '

He's got his heart set on his party winning seats in the next GE
We've received his flier in the mail calling Labour and LibDems remain parties and castigating Johnson for betraying the one true Brexit

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 1:55 pm

Has anyone else received anything from the Brexit Party recently?

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 2:08 pm

A little while ago Hammond proposed an EEA/EFTA deal to take effect immediately, no transition. It got almost no attention at the time, but this thread probably explains what he was thinking.

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In the short term, for Conservative MPs voting for a Deal the ERG is on board with is a low risk option. They get to claim Brexit has happened without voters feeling any sudden economic or social pain.
What happens when Brexit Transition needs to be extended is another matter

-

And for the EU a scenario where the UK repeatedly has to ask for transition extensions is ideal. EU states can simply extend a process in which the UK enforces EU laws it has no control over without having to worry about UK disruption of EU governance

-

a structured form of Soft Brexit would probably give the UK more space to influence the EU system through renegotiated shared structures than a simple transition process involving all responsibilities of EU membership without legislative rights

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 2:33 pm

The "usual suspects" amongst Labour MPs not sounding too thrilled with this deal. Maybe it will be voted down after all?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 4:09 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... SApp_Other" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 4:17 pm

The fact that working age is mentioned in the margins of Govt.publications yet they still stick to the "dignity in old age" line" only amplifies their cynicism.IMHO.Of course Labour free from the same bollox though to be fair "ambition"is better than whispering in a dark room.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 4:21 pm

Categorisation/separation is thoroughly bad,merely feeding off and into a false narrative and creating/exarcerbatng division and resentment.All based on fakery and deceit

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 4:48 pm

Keir Starmer
‏Verified account @Keir_Starmer

Excuse the long thread, but I have looked carefully at the #BrexitDeal negotiated by Boris Johnson. Here is my analysis: 1/

Labour’s concerns with Theresa May’s deal were not principally about the backstop. They were about the Political Declaration and our future relationship with the EU after Brexit. 2/

Having reviewed what has been agreed, it is clear that the Johnson deal is a far worse deal than Theresa May’s deal. It paves the way for a decade of deregulation. It gives Johnson licence to slash workers’ rights, environmental standards and consumer protections. 3/

Rather than strengthening the Political Declaration (PD) along the lines Labour argued, the political direction of travel under Johnson is to a distant economic relationship with the EU. It rules out a new Customs Union and a close future relationship with the Single Market. 4/

This inevitably means there will be new trade barriers with the EU and additional checks at borders. The PD is explicit about this. And the Johnson deal makes it easier for a Tory Government to cut rights and standards. 5/

On services, the PD offers nothing beyond the weak provisions in the Theresa May deal. Nor has there been any progress on the question of agencies and our future security relationship. 6/

The level playing field commitments are significantly weaker: no longer building on the measures in the old Withdrawal Agreement, which provided for dynamic alignment in certain areas. 7/

Instead, the level playing field provisions only last until the end of transition with a warning shot from the EU about the impact this will have on (reduced) access to EU markets. 8/

Labour will not support a flawed Brexit deal that harms jobs, rights and living standards. This deal will unquestionably do that. 9/

Labour cannot support this deal. If Boris Johnson has confidence in his deal, he should put it back to the people in a public vote against remain - and that is an argument we will be making on Saturday. 10/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1184 ... 77602.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 5:09 pm

Someone who, agree with them or not, actually knows what they are talking about. Unlike many "journalists" - as shown all too well today.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 5:48 pm

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Even without the DUP If the ERG sign up wholesale it's only going to take a handful of Labour MP's to give Johnson his victory.

Saying that I predicted the DUP and ERG would support it. So I was completely wrong about the former and am hopeful my wrongness continues to flourish in regards to the latter.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 5:50 pm

Goodwin is biased, and seemingly assuming the Tories who Johnson chucked out of the parliamentary party will vote for it en masse.

(interestingly, some of those seem to be agreeing with Labour that they will only support it with a referendum)

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 6:30 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Goodwin is biased, and assuming the Tories who Johnson chucked out of the parliamentary party will vote for it en masse.

I really hope you're right because I've heard a few of them on the radio today saying they've been discussing it amongst themselves and every single one of them interviewed said they would vote for it. A majority of them voting for a deal doesn't sound at all unlikely.

Where I hope he's wrong is 3 of those scenarios have the ERG voting en masse for the deal, and given it could be swung by a handful of MP's either way there may be enough headbangers to scupper it.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 6:32 pm

Ronnie Campbell the Blyth Valley Labour MP on Radio 5 now saying he'll vote for it which comes as no surprise.

Lost Soul · Post by **Lost Soul** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 6:51 pm

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Sink my boats...

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 7:36 pm

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:Ronnie Campbell the Blyth Valley Labour MP on Radio 5 now saying he'll vote for it which comes as no surprise.

Yes, he is one of the "hardcore" 5 or 6 who were always likely to. Though amusingly, Hoey might vote against because the DUP hate it!

Just imagine if her vote swung it against BoJo

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:13 pm

The more important question is whether an amendment to add a referendum would carry. What do we think?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:21 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:The more important question is whether an amendment to add a referendum would carry. What do we think?

What legitimate reason(s) are there against a confirmation referendum?

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:26 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:The more important question is whether an amendment to add a referendum would carry. What do we think?

The people's vote lot don't seem to think so.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:27 pm

It would require an extension. Which may not be granted.

Apart from that none really.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:32 pm

@SGO thanks yes I see what you mean

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:34 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Though amusingly, Hoey might vote against because the DUP hate it! Just imagine if her vote swung it against BoJo

If that were to happen I'm not sure my capacity for laughter would entirely suffice and I'd have some kind of spasm of glee.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:50 pm

From the G:

But a senior EU official said that the leaders would follow events on Saturday, and reflect on the next steps if they were in a “different situation”.

A second diplomatic source said they had chosen not to interfere in a “sensitive domestic debate … but they leave the door open to the possibility of an extension, to be discussed at a later stage – if required”.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:54 pm

E.g. if Parliament voted for a referendum.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 9:13 pm

Looking foreword to Johnson’s plan for making Britain great again - given it will no longer exist.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 9:16 pm

Or even forward

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 9:20 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:It would require an extension. Which may not be granted.

Apart from that none really.

The EU wouldn't likely deny an extension for the purpose of a confirmation referendum.

Lost Soul · Post by **Lost Soul** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 9:22 pm

Removing the foreword from 'Great Britain' ?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 9:26 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:Looking foreword to Johnson’s plan for making Britain great again - given it will no longer exist.

Yes. Is it legal placing NI in a different arrangement from the rest of the UK?