Tuesday 29th October 2019

Post by **refitman** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 6:42 am

Morning all.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 7:49 am

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019 ... revolution" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **refitman** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 8:56 am

Lord John Mann? Really?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 9:38 am

Good morfternoon.

Just to add to the confusion, it's now mooted that the General Election could be held on a Wednesday. More depressed turnout.

Edited - dreadful typo

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 9:51 am

Morning all.

It’s time to reverse the Beeching Axe

https://unherd.com/2019/10/its-time-to- ... ching-axe/

And it is not just these high-profile lines whose closure now looks remarkably short-sighted. The loss of some smaller regional routes may have been equally foolish, given the issues facing modern Britain, one of which is the increasing concentration of high-skilled, high-status jobs in a small number of large cities and the economic falling behind of the regions.

The best hope for many mid-sized towns within commuting range of large urban centres lies in fast, reliable transport connections, but the cuts to rail infrastructure in the second half of the last century have made this more difficult.

Research suggests that areas affected by the Beeching cuts suffered permanent population decline afterwards, especially of skilled workers. The attempt to replace train routes with buses didn’t work, since road congestion and circuitous routes meant buses were slower and passengers gave up on them.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:28 am

Someone's done the maths.

Chris Hanretty
@chrishanretty
This means that an out of term election would decrease the Labour margin over the Conservatives by between 37,492 and 49,010 votes, or between 0.12% and 0.15% of the 2017 vote. (10/16)

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:53 am

We have a lecture in Senate House on the 12th which must mean that UCL and KCL are still in term time.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 11:23 am

No wonder Sajid Javid didn't want a budget!

UK Treasury on course to exceed this year's deficit target by £16bn

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... et-by-16bn

The government is on course to overshoot its deficit target this year by £16bn after a series of spending pledges, a slowdown in the economy and the spiralling cost of student loans stripped the Treasury of £43bn.

The Resolution Foundation, an independent thinktank, warned that the £27bn of spending “headroom” set aside by former chancellor Philip Hammond in March to cope with the costs of Brexit had evaporated over the last six months, leaving the government with a hefty deficit.

In a report that was due to be released ahead of Sajid Javid’s first budget on 6 November, which was scrapped last week, the independent thinktank said the Treasury was going to be left with little option but to break its rule that caps the annual shortfall in spending at 2% of GDP.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 12:07 pm

Good afternoon, everyone.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 12:16 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

It’s time to reverse the Beeching Axe

https://unherd.com/2019/10/its-time-to- ... ching-axe/
---

(cJA edit)
I wish rail and other public transportation infrastructure had the subsidies currently given motor vehicles.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 12:22 pm

refitman wrote:Lord John Mann? Really?

Was announced some time ago this would happen.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 12:35 pm

Heidi Allen quits.

Sebastian Payne
‏
Verified account

@SebastianEPayne
Follow Follow @SebastianEPayne
More
.@heidiallen75 is quitting politics:

"I am exhausted by the invasion into my privacy and the nastiness and intimidation that has become commonplace. Nobody in any job should have to put up with threats, aggressive emails, being shouted at in the street.

"

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 12:42 pm

The original election bill today doesn't allow for amendments, but it looks like an amendment that.....erm.....allows amendments might well be carried.

Got that?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:03 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The original election bill today doesn't allow for amendments, but it looks like an amendment that.....erm.....allows amendments might well be carried.

Got that?

No. I don't. I can't figure out what the hell is going on. Please know it's not your fault I can't figure out what the hell is going on.
It's not my fault either. I've a triple digit IQ and I'm paying attention. I don't understand what's going on. I don't dig it.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:04 pm

Was the Jennifer Arcuri matter ever resolved (and did I miss it)?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:14 pm

No and no.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:18 pm

Anyway students who live away from home can vote at home can't they, as long as they are registered?

Indeed don't the Tories accuse them of voting twice?

I would imagine that most students at the end of this term will just stay at home or head home for Christmas and hopefully will still vote.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:28 pm

It appears quite a few will still be around come the 12th Dec (the following week might indeed be a different matter)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:34 pm

Latest PE cover is quite amusing...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:35 pm

BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics
·
24s
Labour minister Andrew Gwynne on party now backing December general election

“The shadow cabinet today were unanimous”

politicslive https://bbc.in/2Nq54wg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **adam** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 1:49 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Anyway students who live away from home can vote at home can't they, as long as they are registered?

Indeed don't the Tories accuse them of voting twice?

I would imagine that most students at the end of this term will just stay at home or head home for Christmas and hopefully will still vote.

It always was the case that you could be registered in different places and vote in different elections - so in a london borough and in Leeds in council elections, for example, but that you can only vote in one constituency in a General Election, although how anyone checks that or indeed even whether anyone checks that I don't know.

So if students away from home are organised (and a significantly higher proporion of HE students than in the past now live at home anyway) then they should be able to vote one way or another.

I read somewhere the other day that there is a 'new edition ' of the electoral roll due to be published at the beginning of December. Any ideas? That could also be 'fun'.

Post by **adam** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 2:02 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics
·
24s
Labour minister Andrew Gwynne on party now backing December general election

“The shadow cabinet today were unanimous”

politicslive https://bbc.in/2Nq54wg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But Barry Sheerman is running around shouting that the party is split in two and everyone is about to resign.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 2:16 pm

Meanwhile...

Tamara Cohen
‏
Verified account

@tamcohen
2h2 hours ago
More
Far from universal excitement in Tory ranks. One former cabinet minister tells me election is a “suicide mission” and they’ll end up with fewer seats...

A few new Brexit party MPs or could they split the Leave vote in Tory areas?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 2:53 pm

The Stella Creasy amendment has been passed by 312 votes to 295 - a majority of 17.
This means that, during the main debate, opposition amendments can be accepted.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... 84c60a0c12" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Johnson lost this vote

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 2:54 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Meanwhile...
Tamara Cohen
‏
Verified account

@tamcohen
2h2 hours ago
More
Far from universal excitement in Tory ranks. One former cabinet minister tells me election is a “suicide mission” and they’ll end up with fewer seats...
A few new Brexit party MPs or could they split the Leave vote in Tory areas?

Tories are going to lose seats in Scotland, won't they?

MsChin · Post by **MsChin** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 2:55 pm

@ adam

"I read somewhere the other day that there is a 'new edition ' of the electoral roll due to be published at the beginning of December. Any ideas? That could also be 'fun'."

Following the annual canvass over summer / early autumn, the new updated register of electors is always published on the 1 December. However, political parties will be working with the marked electoral register from the most recent election, which shows who voted and who didn't (although it does not show which party individuals voted for, obviously, as that bit is not recorded). The marked register also shows who has opted for a postal vote and they are usually targeted first when aiming to get the vote out.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 3:13 pm

Nice to see you here MsChin

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 3:58 pm

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultat ... nd#history" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Draft legislation for the is your necessary straw really necessary policy.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 4:01 pm

To be fair,choking to death is really a lifestyle choice

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 4:10 pm

In two minds about the robot carebots thing in lieu of actual person,as long as you could programme them to be sweary anti-Torybots,it may cause some amusement.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 4:12 pm

With a variety of accents/dialects.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 4:14 pm

It's what happens when you residualise what should be about independent living to task based problematic impersonalitism.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 4:18 pm

The downward devaluation spiral of activity/person working in tandem.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 4:28 pm

Suffice to say when I point out actual facts agin the "it's a women's issue" fervent they never get back to me;have to say devaluing such fundamentals on the fakery of "choice"when they actually mean they look down at it,hasn't,shall we say,been helpful.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 4:41 pm

Well, recycling is good, right?

Brexit meltdown: 50p coins with 31 October date to be recycled

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... e-recycled

The coins were supposed to mark Britain’s departure at the end of the month but the Treasury told the Royal Mint to begin stockpiling last week.

Officials waited before making a final decision about the coins until the EU heads of state agreed an extension to the Brexit deadline and it was clear that parliament would prevent the UK from crashing out without a deal on 31 October.

Once an extension was agreed on Monday and No 10 had made it clear its preference was to have a general election, officials were given the all clear to prepare for a future Brexit date.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 5:29 pm

1. The amendments on extending the franchise to give EU nationals and 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in the general election have not been selected,*

2. Amendment 2, which is set to be put to a vote (see 5.19pm), is a Jeremy Corbyn amendment that would change the date of the election to Monday 9 December, from Thursday 12 December. It is also been signed by the Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson.

* not yet anyway - may be selected after 2.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 6:04 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:1. The amendments on extending the franchise to give EU nationals and 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in the general election have not been selected,*

2. Amendment 2, which is set to be put to a vote (see 5.19pm), is a Jeremy Corbyn amendment that would change the date of the election to Monday 9 December, from Thursday 12 December. It is also been signed by the Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson.

* not yet anyway - may be selected after 2.

Ian Dunt article regarding why the three days may be important

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/1 ... fight-over" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 7:52 pm

MPs are now voting on amendment 2, which would change the date of the election from Thursday 12 December to Monday 9 December.(Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 8:03 pm

UK set for 12 December election as MPs reject Labour amendment

The Commons has rejected Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal to hold an early general on 9 December, rather than the government’s plan to do so three days later.

MPs voted against amendment 2 by 315 votes to 295; a majority of 20.(Politics Live, Guardian)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 9:01 pm

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 9:53 pm

So farewell then, Owen Smith.

You were the future, once.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:28 pm

So - GE, Tories win, Boris randomly changes some laws, brings back no deal, Tories for 5 years
--> UK = f****ed?

Or have I missed something?

Post by **adam** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:39 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:So - GE, Tories win, Boris randomly changes some laws, brings back no deal, Tories for 5 years
--> UK = f****ed?

Or have I missed something?

Probably. Possibly. It depends on lots of things. In theory, if he wants to go ahead without a withdrawal agreement he will at some point between now and the election say so and do a deal with Farage. In theory, if Johnson stands on the current withdrawal agreement then the BP should stand against it - that's what they keep saying - and that would probably change everything. And Johnson has looked really shit in public most of the time since he became PM - he just doesn't have the kind of slick manegerial professionalism that Cameron or Blair had - and that could prove interesting in the next six weeks.

He needs to do better than the tories have done since 1987, 32 years ago, in order to really take power - he needs a majority better than Major managed in 1992 or his 'moderates' could become his bastards like Major's extremists were.

Post by **adam** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:40 pm

MsChin wrote:@ adam

"I read somewhere the other day that there is a 'new edition ' of the electoral roll due to be published at the beginning of December. Any ideas? That could also be 'fun'."

Following the annual canvass over summer / early autumn, the new updated register of electors is always published on the 1 December. However, political parties will be working with the marked electoral register from the most recent election, which shows who voted and who didn't (although it does not show which party individuals voted for, obviously, as that bit is not recorded). The marked register also shows who has opted for a postal vote and they are usually targeted first when aiming to get the vote out.

x

Post by **adam** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:48 pm

2nd June 2017 - Political Studies Association 'meta analysis' of polling, surveys and expert opinion on forthcoming 2017 election.

The prevailing view among our respondents at the time was that the Conservatives will secure a large majority, with an implied probability of 65% that they will win a majority of more than one hundred seats.

The average prediction of the vote share for the Conservatives was 43%, while the share for Labour was 29%, an implied Conservative lead of some 14 points – well above the current polling average. The predicted share for the Liberal Democrats was 12%, 5% for UKIP and 4% for the Greens.

There is a prevailing view that the Conservatives will end up as the largest party in parliament: the average prediction suggested that the Conservatives would win 371 seats, Labour 186 seats, the Lib Dems 16 seats and the SNP 47.

Post by **adam** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:51 pm

Michel Barnier tells UK: ignore EU regulatory standards at your peril

The EU and UK have agreed to negotiate a free-trade agreement as part of Boris Johnson’s revamped Brexit deal, but Barnier stressed that tariff and quota-free access to the EU were linked to maintaining regulatory standards. “Access to our markets will be proportional to the commitments taken to the common rules,” he said. “The agreement we are ready to discuss is zero tariffs, zero quotas, zero dumping.”

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 10:59 pm

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 29 Oct, 2019 11:09 pm

Back from seeing The Unthanks were were excellent as usual...

Tory MPs 'asking Brexit party not to stand against them'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ainst-them

Tory MPs are asking the Brexit party not to run candidates in their seats at an early general election, according to the party’s chairman, Richard Tice, as speculation mounts over the anti-EU party’s potential pacts in leave areas.

Tice said he received a frantic message from one Tory urging him not to stand a candidate in their constituency because they were facing a challenge from the Liberal Democrats. “It wasn’t the first; it won’t be the last,” he said.

This would be so funny to see...