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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 6:30 am 
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A wonderful opportunity to invest,create jobs and maintain peoples' independence says the IFS,or maybe not.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 8:55 am 
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Good morning, everyone.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 9:18 am 
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Thank you, Sky, for your research posted on yesterday's politics thread.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 10:14 am 
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Morning all.

Vaz decided to stand down I see.

Good - we can do better than what he was/became.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 10:21 am 
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General election: Corbyn urged to say if he would use nuclear bomb after Thornberry ducks question

Do we really have to do this again?

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 10:33 am 
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gilsey wrote:
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General election: Corbyn urged to say if he would use nuclear bomb after Thornberry ducks question

Do we really have to do this again?


Anything to avoid talking about Boris Johnson's inability to use a mop or lay a wreath I guess. Purely theoretical scenarios are one of his few opportunities to shine.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:15 am 
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Hmm...

https://twitter.com/AvaSantina/status/1 ... 3867888641

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Slide One is Boris Johnson, yesterday, laying a wreath upside down on the Cenotaph
Slide Two is the footage BBC News are rolling with this morning - bizarrely, it's from 2016.

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There’s likely an innocent explanation for this –– young producer couldn’t find yesterday’s footage for overlay or something –– but can confirm BBC running Remembrance footage from years ago.


Of course...

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:20 am 
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Asked whether he could promise voters that he would protect them and their families, the Labour leader said: “What is real security in your life? Real security is somewhere to live, real security is a secure job, real security is a health service, real security is social care, real security is knowing that you can bring up your children in a safe, clean, sustainable environment.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... dissenters
From an interview last week


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:24 am 
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Oh look...

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This morning on the programme we incorrectly used footage from a Remembrance Day service that was not filmed yesterday.

This was a production mistake and we apologise for the error.

10:39 AM - 11 Nov 2019


Of course, nothing to with the fact that he looked sloppily dressed, stepped out at the wrong time, and laid the wreath the wrong way round!

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:25 am 
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I go straight to angry and skip shocked now


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:31 am 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:

Of course, nothing to with the fact that he looked sloppily dressed, stepped out at the wrong time, and laid the wreath the wrong way round!

That Cameron line to Corbyn, smarten yourself up, doesn't look very clever now. The original footage shows BJ looking like he's been dragged through a hedge backwards followed by JC looking very smart indeed. Cameron did him a favour.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:32 am 
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Pretty sloppy from the BBC, thinking nobody would notice it was green ffs.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:43 am 
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BBC are generally a very "sloppy" organisation these days, that's where refusing to accept any criticisms can ever be made in good faith gets you.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 11:45 am 
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Adam Wagner on that rehashed policy of not allowing vexatious prosecutions of military.

https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/ ... 6003511296

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 12:06 pm 
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I'm not the only one thinking that the BBC "error" in showing the wrong footage would have taken more than just a slip:

https://twitter.com/Howard_Goodall/status/1193857121139470337


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 12:09 pm 
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Quote:
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Green Party stands aside in London marginal Chingford & Woodford Green to help #LabourParty defeat Iain Duncan Smith: https://tinyurl.com/s977z6b . @sianberry @John_J_C_Moss #GeneralElection.


Now that would be fun to watch...

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 12:16 pm 
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From AS

Quote:
Farage says Brexit party will not fight Tories in 317 seats in significant boost to Johnson's election chances
Farage says he weighed up Johnson’s promises, against the threat that the Brexit party standing could let the Lib Dems in.

Farage says the Brexit party will not stand against the Tories in the 317 seats they won in 2017.
But it will concentrate its efforts on seats held by the Labour party.

And it will also challenge other remainer parties.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 12:24 pm 
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General Election 2019: Conservatives set to delay manifesto launch until just two weeks before election day

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 12:39 pm 
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This is why Farage had to dump Ukip, a democratically run party that would probably not have agreed to do this. The whole Tommy Robinson toxification of Ukip having previously been carefully engineered to ensure voters wouldn't be tempted to go back to Ukip and split the Brexit vote anyway.

This was so predictable. The Brexit Party has never been an independent threat. It's basically the Tory party "b" team. It's the Torro Rosso to the Tories' Red Bull and they're both singing from the same hymn sheet.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 12:44 pm 
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Another Spiked writer as a Brexit Party PPC...

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Alka Sehgal Cuthbert


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Alka Sehgal Cuthbert PPC for East Ham Respect the mandate & help #ChangePoliticsForGood


Three I've seen so far but I'm sure there are more. I get this feeling that they're using Bexit as a way into a political party - I don't recall them ever getting overly worried about Brexit until this year's Euro elections.

Still, now that Farage has folded, they'll get a Tory government - I'm sure thy'll be happy with that.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 12:44 pm 
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Willow904 wrote:
This is why Farage had to dump Ukip, a democratically run party that would probably not have agreed to do this. The whole Tommy Robinson toxification of Ukip having previously been carefully engineered to ensure voters wouldn't be tempted to go back to Ukip and split the Brexit vote anyway.

This was so predictable. The Brexit Party has never been an independent threat. It's basically the Tory party "b" team. It's the Torro Rosso to the Tories' Red Bull and they're both singing from the same hymn sheet.


This isn't good news but it would have been ludicrous for Farage to go ahead and stand everywhere and this was entirely to be expected.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 1:10 pm 
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gilsey wrote:
Quote:
General election: Corbyn urged to say if he would use nuclear bomb after Thornberry ducks question

Do we really have to do this again?

Of all the days to do this, as well!


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 1:24 pm 
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adam wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
This is why Farage had to dump Ukip, a democratically run party that would probably not have agreed to do this. The whole Tommy Robinson toxification of Ukip having previously been carefully engineered to ensure voters wouldn't be tempted to go back to Ukip and split the Brexit vote anyway.

This was so predictable. The Brexit Party has never been an independent threat. It's basically the Tory party "b" team. It's the Torro Rosso to the Tories' Red Bull and they're both singing from the same hymn sheet.


This isn't good news but it would have been ludicrous for Farage to go ahead and stand everywhere and this was entirely to be expected.


A compromise between those in BxP who still wanted to stand everywhere and those who wanted an almost total withdrawal from the election.

It means they can still get a PPB.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 1:27 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
adam wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
This is why Farage had to dump Ukip, a democratically run party that would probably not have agreed to do this. The whole Tommy Robinson toxification of Ukip having previously been carefully engineered to ensure voters wouldn't be tempted to go back to Ukip and split the Brexit vote anyway.

This was so predictable. The Brexit Party has never been an independent threat. It's basically the Tory party "b" team. It's the Torro Rosso to the Tories' Red Bull and they're both singing from the same hymn sheet.


This isn't good news but it would have been ludicrous for Farage to go ahead and stand everywhere and this was entirely to be expected.


A compromise between those in BxP who still wanted to stand everywhere and those who wanted an almost total withdrawal from the election.

It means they can still get a PPB.

True - although there's some discussion about issues like how much coverage they should have (likely functional answer - 'As much as the BBC want them to') and about whether Farage (or indeed Tice) gets to go to a televised leader's debate if they're not a national party.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 1:33 pm 
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Quote:
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The news also illustrates the astonishingly tight grip Nigel Farage (and Richard Tice) have over the Brexit party. What other party could parade hundreds of eager candidates before the media, and then literally a week later order the bulk of them to stand aside?

12:27 PM - 11 Nov 2019


"Democracy for the UK...but not in our party" seems to be the message.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 1:36 pm 
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Wonder if Farage will pay those who are not now contesting seats their £100 back?

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 2:02 pm 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
Wonder if Farage will pay those who are not now contesting seats their £100 back?


A now-former BP candidate speaks.

Attachment:
Screen Shot 2019-11-11 at 14.00.43.png
Screen Shot 2019-11-11 at 14.00.43.png [ 24.38 KiB | Viewed 945 times ]

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 2:14 pm 
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https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-anal ... e-counties

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The Survation polling suggests that seats observers have hitherto ignored, such as Hitchin and Romsey, are viable Lib Dem targets. But for all their opportunities in the south east and Home Counties, read between the lines and there's a question. The Lib Dems are up around ten points in the polls compared to 2017. The published Survation constituency polls show them up around 20 points in Esher, Wokingham, South Cambridgeshire and North East Somerset. They are not up 20 points nationally though - so where are they struggling?

Survation only publish the polls their clients authorise them to. We don't know what polls the Lib Dems have commissioned which they aren't publishing - which seats, and what results they're showing.

The Brexity Midlands will be tough for the party, but that's not where they're targeting. By contrast, the south west is looking glaring by its relative absence from the published Survation polls - it's the traditional Lib Dem heartland where most of the party's easier target seats are. And yet so far Survation has only published results from Jacob Rees Mogg's North East Somerset seat in the south west. Yes, the Lib Dems are up 20 points there on 2017 - but the seat contains demographic overspill from the Remain heartland of Bristol. That is quite unlike Devon, Cornwall and Somerset. Surely the Lib Dems have commissioned polls here. If the party is sitting on them, they're doing it for a reason.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 2:15 pm 
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Oh, and.......10,000 8-)


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 2:24 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Oh, and.......10,000 8-)


:) and a thousand thank yous.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 2:32 pm 
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I saw some BBC news this afternoon and heard the Brexit Party's owner give a statement. He got the number of Tory seats held spectacularly wrong and no one corrected his error. He confined BP candidates standing in seats held by the Labour party.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 2:37 pm 
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The tory candidate in Hartepool has said he won't stand against Tice - Farage might have forced a deal onto Johnson whatever the Tories think nationally.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 2:50 pm 
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adam wrote:
The tory candidate in Hartepool has said he won't stand against Tice - Farage might have forced a deal onto Johnson whatever the Tories think nationally.


I expect they will just get a new one?

And the Tories thought they had a genuine chance there in 2017 too.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 3:07 pm 
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Boris Johnson set to break pledge not to nominate EU commissioner

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/11/boris-johnson-expected-break-pledge-not-nominate-eu-commissioner-brexit

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In his first address to the House of Commons after becoming prime minister in July, Johnson told MPs that “under no circumstances” would he nominate a new commissioner – a promise aimed at signalling his determination to leave the EU on 31 October.


Apart from the obvious one...

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 4:04 pm 
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https://www.centreforwelfarereform.org/ ... eform.html


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 4:22 pm 
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gilsey wrote:
https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/11/11/can-the-lib-dems-wreak-havoc-in-the-home-counties

Quote:
The Survation polling suggests that seats observers have hitherto ignored, such as Hitchin and Romsey, are viable Lib Dem targets. But for all their opportunities in the south east and Home Counties, read between the lines and there's a question. The Lib Dems are up around ten points in the polls compared to 2017. The published Survation constituency polls show them up around 20 points in Esher, Wokingham, South Cambridgeshire and North East Somerset. They are not up 20 points nationally though - so where are they struggling?

Survation only publish the polls their clients authorise them to. We don't know what polls the Lib Dems have commissioned which they aren't publishing - which seats, and what results they're showing.

The Brexity Midlands will be tough for the party, but that's not where they're targeting. By contrast, the south west is looking glaring by its relative absence from the published Survation polls - it's the traditional Lib Dem heartland where most of the party's easier target seats are. And yet so far Survation has only published results from Jacob Rees Mogg's North East Somerset seat in the south west. Yes, the Lib Dems are up 20 points there on 2017 - but the seat contains demographic overspill from the Remain heartland of Bristol. That is quite unlike Devon, Cornwall and Somerset. Surely the Lib Dems have commissioned polls here. If the party is sitting on them, they're doing it for a reason.


I've just had a look at the Survation constituency poll for NE Somerset and it's not very exciting for anyone other than local Libdems as far as I can see. They do appear to be beating Labour for second, a complete turnaround from 2 years ago, but Labour + Libdem combined are still not enough to overhaul Jacob Rees-Mogg, so it's still pretty much a safe Tory seat, as it has been since its inception in 2010.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 4:42 pm 
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Oh and I should add that yes, as you head south from Bristol the terrain gets increasingly Brexity. Personally I think the Libdems are unlikely to reclaim Wells, Yeovil, Taunton Deane etc. for this reason. Mind you, I would never have expected them to be polling so strongly here, so what do I know. Corbyn is really unpopular, though, I have been picking up that much, so I guess it's possible the poll's right and Labour could indeed do really badly here, compared to the past.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 4:45 pm 
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Does anyone know of anywhere Labour are doing well, btw, to cheer us all up? The South West has never been much else but a sea of blue so I'm never going to have good news.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 5:23 pm 
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shy labour voters


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 5:51 pm 
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Anyone else think Farage's announcement could backfire?


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 5:53 pm 
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Went to Stockport and back this weekend - only poster boards I saw were Labour.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 8:39 pm 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Anyone else think Farage's announcement could backfire?


It is at least possible that it won't be the simple boost for the Tories that some pundits have asserted.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 9:58 pm 
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Better late than never I guess...shades of the riots in London a few years ago when he was late for that too.

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NEW: The Prime Minister will chair an emergency COBR meeting tomorrow to discuss the response to recent flooding.

That’s *5 days* after after floods hit Yorkshire and the East Midlands.

@itvcalendar

7:58 PM - 11 Nov 2019

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Nov, 2019 10:35 pm 
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Gotta love the way this is phrased...

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I am standing down as @brexitparty_uk's candidate in Broxtowe. It is the right thing to do.

I'll be supporting @VoteDarrenHenry to ensure we get a Conservative majority and #GetBrexitDone!

Thank you to everyone who supported our campaign, #Broxtowe4Brexit. An amazing team!


...as if it was his own decision and not one made for him.

Interesting - he used to be one of those self-proclaimed Tory teachers.

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