Tuesday 17th December 2019

Post by **refitman** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 7:00 am

Morning all.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:03 am

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Sterling loses all gains from before GE poll day vs $ and euro as PM decides to legislate against his Government’s room for manoeuvre on extending UK-EU trade talks beyond next year, as an attempt to leverage a quick deal.. raising chance of WTO terms in a year:

Johnson can get a deal next year the same way he got a revised withdrawal agreement, by signing whatever deal the EU offer him.

From where we are now, that would be a good outcome for the rest of us, is 'no deal' more likely? Who knows.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:16 am

A theory.

Bobby McDonagh
@BobbyMcDonagh1
What possible reason could there be for Government to tie its OWN hands on length of the Brexit negotiations? My guess: because Cummings doesn’t trust PM when reality would eventually begin to dawn that more time is needed to get good deal for UK

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:29 am

Good morning, everyone.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 11:06 am

gilsey wrote:A theory.

Bobby McDonagh
@BobbyMcDonagh1
What possible reason could there be for Government to tie its OWN hands on length of the Brexit negotiations? My guess: because Cummings doesn’t trust PM when reality would eventually begin to dawn that more time is needed to get good deal for UK

I've been furiously thinking this through. An extension request would need to be made around July(?). When parliament isn't sitting - so not available to unpick legislation passed now. By green MPs who haven't yet developed a rebellious streak. So this is either to ram through "no deal" or ram through a bad deal. Because if your aim is a good deal, that will take time and you wouldn't scupper yourself before you've even started.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 11:40 am

Morning all.

Must be nice being a political failure...

James Tonks
‏
@James_Tonkss
17m17 minutes ago
More
So let’s get this straight. Zac Goldsmith, was given a seat at 35 for 8 years, lost his seat twice, lost the London mayoral election and is now in the House of Lords at 44. Astounding. #zacgoldsmith #politics

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 12:03 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Must be nice being a political failure...

James Tonks
‏
@James_Tonkss
17m17 minutes ago
More
So let’s get this straight. Zac Goldsmith, was given a seat at 35 for 8 years, lost his seat twice, lost the London mayoral election and is now in the House of Lords at 44. Astounding. #zacgoldsmith #politics

And like Nicky Morgan, keeping his Ministerial job...

I've seen lots of whataboutery on this - most concern people like Chakrabarti and Adonis who were never MPs or Mandelson who was an EU Commissioner before being elevated.

And the less said about Joanna Williams "if you're not elected then you shouldn't be in the government" the better - hint: leader of the House of Lords...

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 1:04 pm

Having helped to facilitate the election of a far right populist government, the BBC is really trolling us now with their series on lovely, progressive socially democratic nordic countries.

First we had Finland and it's huge commitments to tackle climate change. Today it was the ultra low gender gap courteous of Iceland.

It's like Jim Bowen on Bullseye - "come and take a look at what you could of won" .

Complete shower of bastards.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 1:11 pm

Oh, expect quite a lot of that sort of thing now.

Also, of course, unflattering stuff about the government/state of the country that was "just coincidentally" kept quiet until last week. For some reason.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 1:38 pm

Willow904 wrote:Having helped to facilitate the election of a far right populist government, the BBC is really trolling us now with their series on lovely, progressive socially democratic nordic countries.

First we had Finland and it's huge commitments to tackle climate change. Today it was the ultra low gender gap courteous of Iceland.

It's like Jim Bowen on Bullseye - "come and take a look at what you could of won" .

Complete shower of bastards.

Remember the reliability and logic of the clues on "3-2-1"? The electorate soon will.

Post by **adam** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 1:43 pm

Willow904 wrote:
gilsey wrote:A theory.

Bobby McDonagh
@BobbyMcDonagh1
What possible reason could there be for Government to tie its OWN hands on length of the Brexit negotiations? My guess: because Cummings doesn’t trust PM when reality would eventually begin to dawn that more time is needed to get good deal for UK
I've been furiously thinking this through. An extension request would need to be made around July(?). When parliament isn't sitting - so not available to unpick legislation passed now. By green MPs who haven't yet developed a rebellious streak. So this is either to ram through "no deal" or ram through a bad deal. Because if your aim is a good deal, that will take time and you wouldn't scupper yourself before you've even started.

If/when he does indeed take whatever the EU offer and his ERG backbenchers realise what's going on and revolt against it, he can try to rely on the hard deadline with no possible alternatives to twist the arm of the opposition parties to vote for him.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 1:49 pm

Good morfternoon.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 1:56 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Oh, expect quite a lot of that sort of thing now.

Also, of course, unflattering stuff about the government/state of the country that was "just coincidentally" kept quiet until last week. For some reason.

Like this. Not that the majority of the population give a damn.

The steep decline in rape convictions in England and Wales is partially due to a lack of resources which has left the criminal justice system “close to breaking point”, a damning inspectorate report has found.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 2:11 pm

The Lib Dems helped the Tories to victory again. Now they should disband

The party’s only achievement was to split the vote. It should now merge with Labour and become a moderate influence, says Simon Jenkins

Aaaaarrrrgggghhhhh

I haven't dignified it with a link, you know where to find it.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 2:24 pm

If I was Trudy Harrison I'd be running in the opposite direction.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 2:44 pm

Pippa Crerar
✔
@PippaCrerar

Senior Labour figure messages: “There’s quite a strong sense around the place that the RLB-Angela ticket is the wrong way round.”
203
10:49 AM - Dec 17, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)

I should cocoa!

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 2:47 pm

gilsey wrote:If I was Trudy Harrison I'd be running in the opposite direction.

Sorry, what is this?

(she is my MP after all)

Post by **adam** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 2:59 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
gilsey wrote:If I was Trudy Harrison I'd be running in the opposite direction.
Sorry, what is this?

(she is my MP after all)

New PPS to Johnson.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 3:56 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Pippa Crerar
✔
@PippaCrerar

Senior Labour figure messages: “There’s quite a strong sense around the place that the RLB-Angela ticket is the wrong way round.”
203
10:49 AM - Dec 17, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)
I should cocoa!

Am inclined to agree.

However, RLB has improved exponentially since 2015 so I'm not writing her off *just* yet......

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 4:34 pm

I don't actually remember seeing Rebecca Long Bailey give a single speech or interview, ever. I have a vague idea of her having stood up for Labour one time or another in the Commons, but don't recall seeing her myself at all. From my perspective she's a real non-entity compared to the likes of Starmer, Thornberry and Raynor, a next tier down sort, someone you've only vaguely heard of. If you're not a Labour member I'm going to take a punt and say you've probably never heard of her. I'm not sure that's going to be terribly helpful for Labour's image with the voters at large tbh if she is elected leader.

Ditto Lisa Nandy, btw. I saw her for the first time (yesterday?) recently. "God she's bland" I think were my husband's words. At least Jo Swinson had a certain quality that made you listen to what she had to say, even if only to realise she was talking crap. Nandy will struggle to get anyone to listen full stop imo.

Oh and I'm not at all keen on this "it should be a woman this time" nonsense. Do you think the SNP picked Nicola Sturgeon because she's a woman? It's bloody patronising and gets in the way of weighing up what is needed in a Labour leader at this time which has nothing to do with male/female and everything to do with experience, warmth and charisma.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 4:41 pm

adam wrote:---
If/when he does indeed take whatever the EU offer and his ERG backbenchers realise what's going on and revolt against it, he can try to rely on the hard deadline with no possible alternatives to twist the arm of the opposition parties to vote for him.

(cJA edit)
I've no doubt Johnson is capable of any action, regardless of others' suffering.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 4:45 pm

I don’t even think it’s got anything to do with warmth and charisma. Labour have to respond to Johnson’s agenda and should be picking the best person to do that, doesn’t stop the warm, charismatic ones getting out and about at the grassroots. In 3 years that’ll be relevant.
Pick someone who the tories and the media can’t avoid taking seriously.

Pick RLB or Rayner now and they won’t last till 2024. I said that yesterday and don’t rule out saying it again tomorrow.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 4:46 pm

RLB appeared for Labour in one of the TV debates in this election campaign, and didn't do bad at all.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 4:49 pm

Willow904 wrote:I don't actually remember seeing Rebecca Long Bailey give a single speech or interview, ever. I have a vague idea of her having stood up for Labour one time or another in the Commons, but don't recall seeing her myself at all. From my perspective she's a real non-entity compared to the likes of Starmer, Thornberry and Raynor, a next tier down sort, someone you've only vaguely heard of. If you're not a Labour member I'm going to take a punt and say you've probably never heard of her. I'm not sure that's going to be terribly helpful for Labour's image with the voters at large tbh if she is elected leader.

Ditto Lisa Nandy, btw. I saw her for the first time (yesterday?) recently. "God she's bland" I think were my husband's words. At least Jo Swinson had a certain quality that made you listen to what she had to say, even if only to realise she was talking crap. Nandy will struggle to get anyone to listen full stop imo.

Oh and I'm not at all keen on this "it should be a woman this time" nonsense. Do you think the SNP picked Nicola Sturgeon because she's a woman? It's bloody patronising and gets in the way of weighing up what is needed in a Labour leader at this time which has nothing to do with male/female and everything to do with experience, warmth and charisma.

While I understand Labour wanting a woman leading the party now, it's a secondary issue with me as well right now. Do other reasons exist having a woman lead the party at this time? Would the choice of leader make any difference in the amount of negative press Labour party leaders receive, for example?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 4:58 pm

Labour never having had a (full time) female leader has been something to bash the party over for a while, however (Tories actually playing the "woke" card against us, gah)

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 4:59 pm

gilsey wrote:I don’t even think it’s got anything to do with warmth and charisma. Labour have to respond to Johnson’s agenda and should be picking the best person to do that, doesn’t stop the warm, charismatic ones getting out and about at the grassroots. In 3 years that’ll be relevant.
Pick someone who the tories and the media can’t avoid taking seriously.

Pick RLB or Rayner now and they won’t last till 2024. I said that yesterday and don’t rule out saying it again tomorrow.

I'm inclined to agree with the idea of a caretaker leader, someone with lots of experience, able to hold their own, put Labour's position clearly and create some space from this defeat for potential leaders to learn and grow and hopefully take over in 2-3 years time.

Do you really think that's something the party would consider, though? You'd have to forego the leadership contest completely if you don't want the membership simply forging ahead with a new messiah. Caretaker now, election winner later would need to be carefully crafted. It won't come from a one person one vote mass membership election, I don't think.

Edited to add I agree it will be a hard 5 years, the atracks on Raynor have already started, much as they did with Burnham in 2015. The right doesn't like to waste any time.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 5:06 pm

No, I don’t think the party would consider it for a moment, sadly.

I wouldn’t designate it as a caretaker arrangement, that wouldn’t work, it would have to look as though they meant it.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 5:08 pm

One (small) comfort - it will probably be four and a half years, not five.

(that is what the FTPA actually says, and even though there is a good chance that will be scrapped its unlikely the Tories will go past mid-2024 I would say)

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 5:09 pm

I’m not a member or au fait with the rules but I assume the only way it could happen is if the PLP stitched it up - this is your candidate. Works for Putin.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 5:12 pm

The Tory party's ten years of governments actively cultivated personally abusive environments for opposition members.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 5:17 pm

Which Labour MP wants to be Labour party leader?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 6:10 pm

citizenJA wrote:Which Labour MP wants to be Labour party leader?

We'll have to wait and see.

Incidentally, the idea of Dan Jarvis being a good idea for Labour leader wasn't such a bad one given that the idea Corbyn was unpatriotic seemed to be the biggest point to work against him. Hard to work that angle against an ex-soldier. The fact Jarvis, in the end, didn't want the job is why it springs to mind.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 6:33 pm

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Harry Yorke@HarryYorke1
Lucy Powell is puzzled as to why so many journalists are outside the Parliamentarty Labour Party meeting due to start any moment.

“We’re irrelevant. Why do you give a f***?”
5:59 PM · Dec 17, 2019·

Yep. The media obsession with the opposition to the almost complete exclusion of the party of actual government was barely defendable when we had a hung parliament. Now it's an absolute joke. Has there been any reaction from long time Tory MPs and ex-PM who warned their own side about voting in Boris yet? I mean that is an actual story.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 8:10 pm

Mary Creagh ripping into Corbyn and the ism and being completely correct,the problem is of course is that the architects of the disaster will remain in place and as Willow states the mindset/composition of the membership.Will enough show at least contrition ,the necessary attitudinal change or continue on their path and part in evitable destruction of a viable party?

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 9:02 pm

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-elec ... son-stoke/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"The great new divide in the UK’s electoral map is ‘Metropolis versus Periphery.’"

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 9:14 pm

https://novaramedia.com/2019/12/17/labo ... ent-wrong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour’s Economic Plans: What Went Wrong?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:08 pm

Keir Starmer lays out case for 'radical Labour government'

Exclusive: shadow Brexit secretary calls for end to party infighting and return to being a ‘broad church’
(Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... government

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:18 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Keir Starmer lays out case for 'radical Labour government'

Exclusive: shadow Brexit secretary calls for end to party infighting and return to being a ‘broad church’
(Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... government

Good. I can't quote effectively from the article; I'm too tired. I suggest everyone read it.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:36 pm

HindleA wrote:Mary Creagh ripping into Corbyn and the ism and being completely correct,the problem is of course is that the architects of the disaster will remain in place and as Willow states the mindset/composition of the membership.Will enough show at least contrition ,the necessary attitudinal change or continue on their path and part in evitable destruction of a viable party?

I vote Labour. It may not be fail-safe but it's close enough. I don't understand factions inside Labour. We're everybody, including those with or without trust funds.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:48 pm

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 17 Dec, 2019 10:50 pm

F*** business.

Closing summary

The UK’s FTSE 100 is down 14 points, or 0.19% at 7,505.15 as the ‘Boris bounce’ fizzled out. Housebuilders and banks are among the biggest fallers, along with Unilever, which warned of weaker-than-expected sales growth today. European stock markets are also mostly trading lower.

The pound has tumbled 1.3% to $1.3160 – back towards levels seen before Thursday’s general election. The government is preparing to pass legislation that could cause a cliff-edge Brexit at the end of next year.

Britain’s factories suffered their worst slump in activity since the financial crisis a decade ago.

The latest UK labour market data are a bit of a mixed bag: unemployment is down and employment is up, but wage growth has slowed and job vacancies have fallen.