Monday 6th October 2014

Post by **refitman** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 7:24 am

Morning all.

danesclose · Post by **danesclose** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 8:42 am

Morning. Interesting article in The Indy today - looks like they are running a series of articles about the NHS this week

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 75923.html

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 8:47 am

Morning.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy ‏@krishgm 18m18 minutes ago
Listening to Clegg on R4 I think all media must not allow any politician this election to get away with not talking red lines for coalition

Well - having listened to Clegg on R4 - it is quite clear he is lining himself (if not his entire party) up for another coalition with the Tories. That is positioning himself right behind Cameron.

Nick Robinson has just said Clegg has managed to morph their key policies so that they will be acceptable compromises to the Tories - a 1% freeze on welfare rather than total freeze - and a couple of extra council tax bands for really expensive houses rather than the mansion tax.

danesclose · Post by **danesclose** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 8:51 am

Usual brilliant cartoon from Martin Rowson in today's Guardian:

: 2014-10-06_084924.jpg (126.27 KiB) Viewed 17089 times

Lonewolfie · Post by **Lonewolfie** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 8:57 am

Morning all...and sorry...gone a bit 'link' happy this morning - I found some bits over the w/end but didn't manage to drop them in...

This feed is worrying...it looks like state-sponsored racism...

https://twitter.com/RMicheleGreen

...and one for the 'drip drip drippety drippers'...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -over.html

...and I think I rather like Mr Affleck now...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/peopl ... 75373.html

...say what you like about Piers Morgan (for my part - he's an odious s**t of the highest order, but he's also very self aware)...anyway, if the Heils' new editor-at-large is going to go for Dodgy Dave, who are we to complain

...

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/o ... CMP=twt_gu

...and, oh dear - capitalism wants to become 'inclusive'...I'm really quite stunned by this - you'd think that the people/organisations who have moulded the world economy in favour of 'free' markets and competition, to the detriment of social cohesion, would understand enough to know...competitions have losers (I'm going to try to put a bit more flesh on the bones of how unbelievably ridiculous this is but no time now

)

http://www.theguardian.com/business/eco ... CMP=twt_gu

...and I picked this up from Lady Centauria last night....it's something I know a bit about...I would be extremely concerned about 'eye-gaze' controlled wheelchairs - when we looked at the possibilities (when eye-gaze first arrived) the technology was most definitely 'patchy' and potentially would lead to commands not being recognised (i.e. said wheelchair doesn't stop when it's told to) - the technology has advanced, but the companies that have spent millions developing their systems with banks of medical professionals etc are still not convinced. Also, the piece states harness attached to the head - so it's a head tracker not an eye-gaze system (head tracking has been around for a while - one example - http://www.nouse.ca/en/intro.php)...which won't work for end-of-life MND sufferers, for example, who lose all head movement as well. Eye gaze systems are not £20,000 - most now retail at around the £4 -5K mark (I'm aware that that is still a huge amount of money - and I could go on (for a long time!!) about how the organisation of 'globalised businesses' with vulture capitalists etc have inflated the end-user price dramatically - there has been government action in producing reports as to how these types of devices could and should be funded by NHS/SS to assist verbal communication - a report with a recommended budget, backed by the Speaker, was produced just prior to the 2010 election...you'll never guess....nothing's been done and it now seems to be in a bit of a mess

)

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014 ... d-mobility

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 9:03 am

Lorely Burt and John Pugh - Lib Dem MPs - on a really happy clap trip on R4 now. Talking very cheerily about not being so naive when they go into coalition again .... very chipper indeed (such a shame about the Health & Social Care Act which wasn't in the agreement ... chirrup, chirrup).

Just hope voters aren't as naive either. That matters more at the moment.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 9:22 am

Very wild weather here last night. 3 power cuts. One of the cats howling away in discordant harmony with the wind in the small hours.

I think our clothes dryer might be in east Wales by now - it has gone anyway.

One large branch down on our side track - missed the greenhouse thank goodness.

Mr Riots has just gone out to walk our main track to see what's what and make sure I can get out to work.

Autumn has properly arrived.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 9:29 am

Pretty rough night down here in Devon as well - autumn happened to our plum tree overnight, stripped bare. Sprog No.1 is off on her yr6 residential adventure week this morning - hope the weather bucks up for them.

In other news, The Sparrow hints that he is not amused by Beta - can't link, I'm on my 'phone, but it's a reply to an early, and funny, post by Wryape....

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 9:31 am

Hobiejoe wrote:Pretty rough night down here in Devon as well - autumn happened to our plum tree overnight, stripped bare. Sprog No.1 is off on her yr6 residential adventure week this morning - hope the weather bucks up for them.

In other news, The Sparrow hints that he is not amused by Beta - can't link, I'm on my 'phone, but it's a reply to an early, and funny, post by Wryape....

Thanks for the hint. I can't look at any of the live blogs on the G now. Just too painful on the eyes.

danesclose · Post by **danesclose** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 9:41 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote:Pretty rough night down here in Devon as well - autumn happened to our plum tree overnight, stripped bare. Sprog No.1 is off on her yr6 residential adventure week this morning - hope the weather bucks up for them.

In other news, The Sparrow hints that he is not amused by Beta - can't link, I'm on my 'phone, but it's a reply to an early, and funny, post by Wryape....
Thanks for the hint. I can't look at any of the live blogs on the G now. Just too painful on the eyes.

Here's the exchange:

: Sparrow.jpg (45.79 KiB) Viewed 17021 times

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 9:52 am

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 10m10 minutes ago
Our PolHome Liveblog of LibDem conference is underway folks (if you like that kinda thing): http://politicshome.com/uk/article/105886/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … #ldconf14

At least it's a readable format (although I still had to reduce the size on my settings to make it more sensible and get rid of some white space).

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 10:35 am

New Populus poll: Lab 37% (-1), Con 31% (-2), Ukip 15% (+2), Lib Dems 8% (N/C).

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 10:36 am

I find it interesting following our discussions about Labour's response to the Tory Conference being much stronger on social media than others that the on-line Populus poll is showing strong Labour leads.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 10:47 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I find it interesting following our discussions about Labour's response to the Tory Conference being much stronger on social media than others that the on-line Populus poll is showing strong Labour leads.

Good point. Most old folk like me rarely look at social media so we're not getting Labour's message. All we get in the MSM is Labour bashing. The BBC has a lot to answer for. The press are beyond the pale.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 10:54 am

frightful_oik wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I find it interesting following our discussions about Labour's response to the Tory Conference being much stronger on social media than others that the on-line Populus poll is showing strong Labour leads.
Good point. Most old folk like me rarely look at social media so we're not getting Labour's message. All we get in the MSM is Labour bashing. The BBC has a lot to answer for. The press are beyond the pale.

Indeed. Sky News are being strangely quiet about their badgering of the woman alleged to have been trolling the McCanns; it appears the main things learned during Leveson is that Cameron will let them get away with murder, as long as they let him and his ministers do the same (almost literally in the case of IDS), whereas Ed has put them on notice that there will be change and they will be held accountable.

The disparity between YouGov and Populus at the moment is stark, and I think you may well be on to something with your explanation as to why that is.

Morning all.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 11:15 am

A possible explanation here is that YouGov (I think uniquely amongst major pollsters now) counts *all* those who express a voting preference.

So the Tories may have picked up some "soft" support following their conference, but it doesn't survive "certainty to vote" filters?

Ashcroft's poll out later today may give us more of a clue here......

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 11:29 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:A possible explanation here is that YouGov (I think uniquely amongst major pollsters now) counts *all* those who express a voting preference.

So the Tories may have picked up some "soft" support following their conference, but it doesn't survive "certainty to vote" filters?

Ashcroft's poll out later today may give us more of a clue here......

I still wonder too about the newspaper weightings that Yougov use - I know I've mentioned it before.

Since the Sun went paywall we all know its readership has plummeted. Unsurprisingly then Yougov only ever find around half the Sun readers they expect, presumably hard core ones!

Given the Sun came out uniquely strongly for Cameron, is this viewpoint also overrepresented in the findings?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 11:35 am

I'm suspicious.

Cameron offers unfunded tax cuts to bribe the electorate (or hopefully not).

The Lib Dems say there's no way they can work with Miliband, then say there will have to be income tax rises in the next Parliament.

Anyone see a lovely Rose Garden compromise here? Cameron promises tax cuts he can't deliver. Clegg promises tax rises to woo the more socially minded. Then they agree to compromise on no change.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 11:48 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:A possible explanation here is that YouGov (I think uniquely amongst major pollsters now) counts *all* those who express a voting preference.

So the Tories may have picked up some "soft" support following their conference, but it doesn't survive "certainty to vote" filters?

Ashcroft's poll out later today may give us more of a clue here......
I still wonder too about the newspaper weightings that Yougov use - I know I've mentioned it before.

Since the Sun went paywall we all know its readership has plummeted. Unsurprisingly then Yougov only ever find around half the Sun readers they expect, presumably hard core ones!

Given the Sun came out uniquely strongly for Cameron, is this viewpoint also overrepresented in the findings?

When did YouGov change their methodology? Their Scottish polling suggests that they are less rigorous in accepting new changes. That Yes lead poll should be the subject of a serious enquiry.

I come back to fundamentals, you cannot win an election from the far right.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 11:53 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm suspicious.

Cameron offers unfunded tax cuts to bribe the electorate (or hopefully not).

The Lib Dems say there's no way they can work with Miliband, then say there will have to be income tax rises in the next Parliament.

Anyone see a lovely Rose Garden compromise here? Cameron promises tax cuts he can't deliver. Clegg promises tax rises to woo the more socially minded. Then they agree to compromise on no change.

Cleggs strategy is to let Lib/Lab marginals burn and fight to hold Lib/Con. To do that he has to:

Appear pro Tory not pro Labour in any post government deal.
Scare the soft Tory vote into voting Lib Dem by pointing out how extreme they are.

He is campaigning as the cuddly loveable Tory party. It is a smart strategy and one Labour will be quite happy to see enacted.

We now have

Centre Left/SDP (Labour)
Centre Right (Lib Dem)
Right wing (Tory)
Far right (UKIP)

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 11:55 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm suspicious.

Cameron offers unfunded tax cuts to bribe the electorate (or hopefully not).

The Lib Dems say there's no way they can work with Miliband, then say there will have to be income tax rises in the next Parliament.

Anyone see a lovely Rose Garden compromise here? Cameron promises tax cuts he can't deliver. Clegg promises tax rises to woo the more socially minded. Then they agree to compromise on no change.
Cleggs strategy is to let Lib/Lab marginals burn and fight to hold Lib/Con. To do that he has to:

Appear pro Tory not pro Labour in any post government deal.
Scare the soft Tory vote into voting Lib Dem by pointing out how extreme they are.

He is campaigning as the cuddly loveable Tory party. It is a smart strategy and one Labour will be quite happy to see enacted.

We now have

Centre Left/SDP (Labour)
Centre Right (Lib Dem)
Right wing (Tory)
Far right (UKIP)

I agree.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 11:56 am

How about the Greens? Are they left wing in your scheme?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 12:00 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 75923.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the-nhs-timebomb-our-health-systems-founding-principles-are-now-at-stake-warn-leading-doctors-nurses-and-charity-bosses

Good piece if you can stand the images roaming up and down the side as you read

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 12:00 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:How about the Greens? Are they left wing in your scheme?

No the Greens are not left wing.

They are an environmental party, people who confuse them with socialists are wrong.

Some of their policies are left wing, but understandably their priority is planet not people.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 12:02 pm

The scaremongering by LD MPs over coalition with Labour just followed on from Clegg's interview with Marr.

Look at page 11 of the transcript & see how he wriggles over accepting tory cuts to the benefits budget:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/p ... _clegg.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We all know he will do a deal with the cons but what got me angry yesterday was Jeremy Browne on DP saying that in coalition talks, nobody would have the right to demand Clegg stands down. The sheer hypocrisy !! This is from a party that demanded Brown stood down in any deal !

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 12:28 pm

Disagree with TE on this occasion - the Greens are a leftish party to all intents and purposes (especially since the right wing strain in the party originally - the Ted Goldsmith wing obsessed with population control - has pretty much died out)

You can also chuck in the Welsh and (a bit more dubiously) Scottish Nats as centre-left, though both have (often rightist) "fundamentalist" wings.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 12:31 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:A possible explanation here is that YouGov (I think uniquely amongst major pollsters now) counts *all* those who express a voting preference.

So the Tories may have picked up some "soft" support following their conference, but it doesn't survive "certainty to vote" filters?

Ashcroft's poll out later today may give us more of a clue here......

Labour are way ahead on the unweighted scores. Personally I think the pollsters are playing it v fast and loose with their manipulations, and just like Obama a couple of years ago, trying to make it closer than it really is.

Labour will win handsomely as the least worst option for most people. It's a sad indictment of British politics that a labour party with such a weak front bench, and so lacking in ideas, and in Reeves' case morality, is the best option.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 12:32 pm

pk1 wrote:The scaremongering by LD MPs over coalition with Labour just followed on from Clegg's interview with Marr.

Look at page 11 of the transcript & see how he wriggles over accepting tory cuts to the benefits budget:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/p ... _clegg.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We all know he will do a deal with the cons but what got me angry yesterday was Jeremy Browne on DP saying that in coalition talks, nobody would have the right to demand Clegg stands down. The sheer hypocrisy !! This is from a party that demanded Brown stood down in any deal !

Thanks PK - Clegg's appalling isn't he?

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 12:35 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:How about the Greens? Are they left wing in your scheme?
No the Greens are not left wing.

They are an environmental party, people who confuse them with socialists are wrong.

Some of their policies are left wing, but understandably their priority is planet not people.

Ahem; Eco-socialism is most definitely left wing. We are an unashamed left wing party, and our priority is not the planet, it is the survival of the human race - people.

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:04 pm

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:10 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
diGriz wrote:(Daily Mail Giant Spiders front page)
They missed a word out. They said 'The bloody FRENCH' when surely they meant 'the bloody socialist FRENCH'

Also missed out 'feminist'.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:16 pm

I like this quote from Gerald Howarth about Clegg's stance on ISIS and Syria.

‘Clegg is all over the place on this. He said we must do all in our power to stop these brutal killings, yet now he’s saying that we won’t do all in our power.’

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:35 pm

People are being very unkind, absolutely horrid in fact, to Vince Cable BTL on the article reporting his rant against the Right To Buy and Help To Buy policies of his very own government.

One of them says even Isis is more popular than his party now .... ouch, ouch.

Vince Cable warns of inequalities caused by housing market crisis
Lib Dem business secretary says problem has been fuelled by chancellor’s Help to Buy and Right to Buy policies
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ket-crisis

If they need more funds the Lib Dems could set up a hire company - Rent A Rant - RhetoricIsUs - PledgoMatic - with Cable as the main man.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:36 pm

Temulkar wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:A possible explanation here is that YouGov (I think uniquely amongst major pollsters now) counts *all* those who express a voting preference.

So the Tories may have picked up some "soft" support following their conference, but it doesn't survive "certainty to vote" filters?

Ashcroft's poll out later today may give us more of a clue here......
Labour are way ahead on the unweighted scores. Personally I think the pollsters are playing it v fast and loose with their manipulations, and just like Obama a couple of years ago, trying to make it closer than it really is.

Labour will win handsomely as the least worst option for most people. It's a sad indictment of British politics that a labour party with such a weak front bench, and so lacking in ideas, and in Reeves' case morality, is the best option.

Exactly right about Reeves. She's obviously taken a decision to oppose primarily on competence, but the incompetence has caused massive problems for people. She could be hammering this home every week.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:36 pm

Ashdown poll to be released at 4pm apparently.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:38 pm

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
frightful_oik wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I find it interesting following our discussions about Labour's response to the Tory Conference being much stronger on social media than others that the on-line Populus poll is showing strong Labour leads.
Good point. Most old folk like me rarely look at social media so we're not getting Labour's message. All we get in the MSM is Labour bashing. The BBC has a lot to answer for. The press are beyond the pale.
Indeed. Sky News are being strangely quiet about their badgering of the woman alleged to have been trolling the McCanns; it appears the main things learned during Leveson is that Cameron will let them get away with murder, as long as they let him and his ministers do the same (almost literally in the case of IDS), whereas Ed has put them on notice that there will be change and they will be held accountable.

The disparity between YouGov and Populus at the moment is stark, and I think you may well be on to something with your explanation as to why that is.

Morning all.

I think that the Rotherham story has basically stopped Labour following the Leveson bit about complaints, which would make a difference.

There's also a dangerous bit in Leveson about the police seizing evidence. Labour haven't shown much interest in that.

55DegreesNorth · Post by **55DegreesNorth** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:43 pm

Afternoon folks,
It's a shambles. You might remember, a year or so back, the Newcastle CCG decided (out of the blue) not to renew its out of hours service, which had been provided by Northern Doctors. It was to be awarded to Northumberland Ambulance service, the Newcastle Foundation Trust, the Walk in Centres , Gateshead Care limited and err... Northern Doctors.

Northern Doctors appealed & sought a judicial review, so the CCG (which has since merged with Gateshead), has decided to recomission the providers again. I haven't found how much this cost, but I'll let you know if I can.

http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/health ... ne-7885436

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:45 pm

diGriz wrote:

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 1:50 pm

55DegreesNorth wrote:Afternoon folks,
It's a shambles. You might remember, a year or so back, the Newcastle CCG decided (out of the blue) not to renew its out of hours service, which had been provided by Northern Doctors. It was to be awarded to Northumberland Ambulance service, the Newcastle Foundation Trust, the Walk in Centres , Gateshead Care limited and err... Northern Doctors.

Northern Doctors appealed & sought a judicial review, so the CCG (which has since merged with Gateshead), has decided to recomission the providers again. I haven't found how much this cost, but I'll let you know if I can.

http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/health ... ne-7885436

That will have cost a lot - judicial reviews aren't cheap, neither are commissioning processes for all concerned.

Cheer up 55DN - your 'shambles' is a Tory dream of greater efficiency and power devolved to the people who know best - GPs. Never mind if it's cost a bomb - you haven't got a proper service - and GPs were already well integrated into most PCTs and commissioning anyway - none of that matters as long as the nasty old public sector isn't running it.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 2:16 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:Ashdown poll to be released at 4pm apparently.

Ashcroft?

Or will the poll show that Clegg has been caught with his pants down?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 2:39 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:Ashdown poll to be released at 4pm apparently.
Ashcroft?

Or will the poll show that Clegg has been caught with his pants down?

You've got me bang to rights with spotting that goof up. Almost wish it was an Ashdown poll ... it might have more capacity for fun.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 2:49 pm

Afternoon all. Lurking today a bit. Rotten outside.

Now this should be interesting...

Parliamentary business for Wednesday 15 October 2014

9.30am Education
Subject: Extremism in schools
Witness(es): Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP, Secretary of State for Education

I wonder if by now they've got their story straight about the meeting in 2010 between Lord Hill + SpAd, and the HT from Birmingham warning them about infiltration in schools?

As I've said before Lord Nash said that the DfE would have an answer on Morgan's desk by the end of the summer.

I can see a "we couldn't find any record of this. Sorry" coming up...

danesclose · Post by **danesclose** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 4:19 pm

Is Ashcroft publishing a national poll today, or just a Heywood & Middleton one?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/la ... 5-71626413" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ashcroft's results: Labour 47% (+7) UKIP 28% (+25) Tories 16% (-11) LDs 5% (-11) Greens 4% (+4)

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 4:25 pm

danesclose wrote:Is Ashcroft publishing a national poll today, or just a Heywood & Middleton one?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/la ... 5-71626413" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ashcroft's results: Labour 47% (+7) UKIP 28% (+25) Tories 16% (-11) LDs 5% (-11) Greens 4% (+4)

Gawd, if only that were a national poll!

Although I can't see how the figures balance - am I missing something?

minch · Post by **minch** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 4:29 pm

Hobiejoe wrote:
danesclose wrote:Is Ashcroft publishing a national poll today, or just a Heywood & Middleton one?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/la ... 5-71626413" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ashcroft's results: Labour 47% (+7) UKIP 28% (+25) Tories 16% (-11) LDs 5% (-11) Greens 4% (+4)
Gawd, if only that were a national poll!

Although I can't see how the figures balance - am I missing something?

They add up to 100% (strange)

Also sadly we missed the national one
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/as ... 7-green-7/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edited to add total figure on first line

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 4:41 pm

There are only those 5 standing in H & M - no "minor party" candidates whatsoever.

Plausible figures though - and the same Lab/UKIP margin as Survation. More than can be said for the latest Ashcroft national poll, tbh - Labour on 30% is taking the proverbial

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 5:04 pm

minch wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote:
danesclose wrote:Is Ashcroft publishing a national poll today, or just a Heywood & Middleton one?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/la ... 5-71626413" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ashcroft's results: Labour 47% (+7) UKIP 28% (+25) Tories 16% (-11) LDs 5% (-11) Greens 4% (+4)
Gawd, if only that were a national poll!

Although I can't see how the figures balance - am I missing something?
They add up to 100% (strange)

Also sadly we missed the national one
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/as ... 7-green-7/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edited to add total figure on first line

Yes, but how is it possible to have three parties with a combined rise in support of 36% whilst two parties have a combined drop of only 22%? I'm sure I'm missing something, but then stats'n'maths was never my strong point.

minch · Post by **minch** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 5:10 pm

Hobiejoe wrote:
minch wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote: Gawd, if only that were a national poll!

Although I can't see how the figures balance - am I missing something?
They add up to 100% (strange)

Also sadly we missed the national one
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/as ... 7-green-7/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edited to add total figure on first line
Yes, but how is it possible to have three parties with a combined rise in support of 36% whilst two parties have a combined drop of only 22%? I'm sure I'm missing something, but then stats'n'maths was never my strong point.

Because those are relative to the gen election when there were more candidates (I assume).

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 5:39 pm

minch wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote:
minch wrote: They add up to 100% (strange)

Also sadly we missed the national one
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/as ... 7-green-7/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edited to add total figure on first line
Yes, but how is it possible to have three parties with a combined rise in support of 36% whilst two parties have a combined drop of only 22%? I'm sure I'm missing something, but then stats'n'maths was never my strong point.
Because those are relative to the gen election when there were more candidates (I assume).

Managed to look at Ashcrofts results, and you're right, they're compared to the GE result, but the LD vote is down by 18%, not 11% (!), which, along with, as you say, some missing minor parties to add to the mix, would bring the figures more into balance.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 06 Oct, 2014 5:49 pm

I notice that the Graun quickly and gleefully had an article on the Tory poll lead within nanoseconds of it appearing. I trust that tomorrow, or later in the week, when the polls revert to a 3-4-5-6 point Labour lead, they will as quickly and as earnestly pen a prominent article on it.

Bound to, being a left wing paper, eh?