Tuesday 7th October 2014

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refitman
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Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by refitman »

Morning all. Conservative lead at 2 points on Yougov:

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 6th Oct -

Con 35%, (-1)
Lab 33%, (-1)
LD 8%, (+1)
UKIP 13%; (no change)

APP -22 (-4)
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Morning

Yes three in a row and the Ashcroft one. Hmmm…..
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by yahyah »

How many before it can be described as a trend ?
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Morning all.

Yes, three in a row is worrying - disconcerting.

Will have to see if it is becoming an established pattern ... I hope not ... or tails off over the next couple of weeks.

I imagine Cameron and Tories had a bit of a boost from their conference extra nasty announcements - plus the unfunded, 'on the never never' tax cuts and Cameron appearing more 'prime ministerial' in sending British troops off to assist in the war against Isis.

I do hope there is a rude awakener to remind people what a nasty shambles this lot are - very soon.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by LadyCentauria »

Perhaps because the press have now had a full week of how wonderful the tory conference was and how wonderful Cameron's speech was; along with nearly two weeks of 'how could Miliband forget the deficit/economy' in his speech? Plus, cross tory voters who'd thought they'd probably vote UKIP but had said 'don't know', suddenly realising they needed to keep UKIP out so declaring for the tories? And some Libdem supporters moving back from Labour. Probably?
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 23m23 minutes ago
Clegg races to beat Cameron to income tax cut by pledging to raise allowance to £11k next year, reveals @steve_hawkes http://bit.ly/1vL1Tkk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I caught the last bit of the Panorama programme about the working poor last night. Didn't seem too bad in it's attitude towards the people from the bit I saw.

However - what the above announcement re tax thresholds shows is that none of the parties (except the Greens) seem to want to focus on the very poorest and how to help them afford to live without needing to rely on the state for essentials such as paying for the roof over their heads. The family where the husband works 30 hours on the minimum wage and will be virtually no better off if he increases his hours because of the claw back of his tax credits - won't be helped by this. Neither will the mum who after childcare costs are deducted is earning £1 hour.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

I hadn't seen this before
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

NHS funding crisis: Boss warns of £75-a-night charge for a hospital bed
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 78502.html
Someone's got to post it.

These products from 'thinking the unthinkable' usually turn out to be ... well, unthinkable. Funny that.

£75 night is far more than many hotels would charge. And what a stupid artificial and unworkable divide the supposed one between health and personal care needs and care / accommodation has proven to be for many people caught up in it ... why on earth would any sensible person want to create a similar divide in hospital care.
Last edited by rebeccariots2 on Tue 07 Oct, 2014 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I hadn't seen this before
Great graphic.

Might have gone a bit further ... just to make sure it's fully realistic ... with the last image being a great big trough sitting on top of a load of smashed glasses.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by yahyah »

Rustinpeace is crowing about it on Andrew's blog.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by yahyah »

Guardian Beta seems up the shoot this morning. Just tried to reply to Rusty, my post half disappeared then launched itself. The posting box has now disappeared.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

RobertSnozers wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
NHS funding crisis: Boss warns of £75-a-night charge for a hospital bed
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 78502.html
Someone's got to post it.

These products from 'thinking the unthinkable' usually turn out to be ... well, unthinkable. Funny that.

£75 night is far more than many hotels would charge. And what a stupid artificial and unworkable divide the supposed one between health and personal care needs and care / accommodation has proven to be for many people caught up in it ... why on earth would any sensible person want to create a similar divide in hospital care.
I don't know that anyone does. The boss in question is speaking on behalf of the NHS Confederation, which represents NHS organisations, and his position is that if funding isn't adequate, or bed blocking not sorted out, this might be a consequence. It's a warning, not an aspiration, IMO. (It could be that this is actually aimed at local authorities because, I would guess, that if someone racked up huge 'hotel costs' while waiting for social care to pull its finger out, the LA ought to be liable rather than the patient).
We've had penalty charges before for not providing social care options soon enough for people stuck in hospital beds ... wasn't an effective measure as I recall. This bloke seems to be aiming his warnings at 'wealthier' patients ...
“Do we say to reasonably well-off people: ‘your healthcare is free, but we are going to charge you £75 per night board and lodging’?”

NHS bosses are also understood to be considering letting waiting lists increase further, which could see a return to routine one-year waits for procedures like hip and knee operations.

This would allow surgeons to prioritise patients with urgent needs, while also releasing pressure by driving wealthier patients into seeking private treatment.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

yahyah wrote:Rustinpeace is crowing about it on Andrew's blog.
Of course he is, that is his job after all. Has Nicky decided these are his five polls?
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by yahyah »

If anyone's tweeting for FTN can you tell The Sparrow that comments aren't even showing properly now.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by danesclose »

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
yahyah wrote:Rustinpeace is crowing about it on Andrew's blog.
Of course he is, that is his job after all. Has Nicky decided these are his five polls?
We can't decide anything until we find out what the weighted moving average is
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by StephenDolan »

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
yahyah wrote:Rustinpeace is crowing about it on Andrew's blog.
Of course he is, that is his job after all. Has Nicky decided these are his five polls?
Morning all.

I'm steering clear of over there until I can glance at the headlines and not think that there's an anti Ed agenda. IE never :wink:
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by RogerOThornhill »

yahyah wrote:Rustinpeace is crowing about it on Andrew's blog.
He was like a bargain hunter waiting for the sales to open this morning.

Bet he won't be crowing about this.

Exclusive: NHS spent £1.8m on abandoned George Eliot competition

http://www.hsj.co.uk/news/exclusive-nhs ... ntID=15303

No HSJ sub...no detail. Sorry.

There's a story from a year ago about the plans for getting private firms involved but that seems to have come to a juddering halt. Still it's only £1.8m...think how much this would cost if applied to all NHS services.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-co ... e-23968538
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by giselle97 »

Morning
I see Empty Dave's mate Michael Bloomberg hasn't been impacted by the purring. ED has whispered in HMQ's ear and MB now has an honorary knighthood. And, of course, ED continues to get favourable press coverage.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by giselle97 »

RobertSnozers will put me right, please, but I've always had a bad smell when the NHS Confederation speaks. Have always considered it to be just another commercial lobbyist.
Last edited by giselle97 on Tue 07 Oct, 2014 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by giselle97 »

Is it just my tablet or was there really no visible comments on AS live blog yesterday?
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

Bit of an odd link, but thought it might cheer people up a little. After the Pride Of Britain Award ceremony, held last night at the Dorchester Hotel, a certain politician found himself very much in demand with the ladies, all wanting a 'selfie' with him; not bad for somebody "weird looking" - can you imagine people flocking to have their picture taken with Shiny Dave or Spineless Nick?

http://www.redneckgossip.com/2014/10/07 ... iveOldPost" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Last edited by TheGrimSqueaker on Tue 07 Oct, 2014 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by yahyah »

giselle97 wrote:Is it just my tablet or was there really no visible comments on AS live blog yesterday?

Morning Giselle, hope life in Premier Inn is going well.

I've just discovered that, on a lap top, the scroll bar on Beta doesn't work fully which is why I was losing sight of content. Have to use the up/down arrow keyboard keys.
Prefer to use the scroll as it doesn't hurt my arthritic hand as much.

Not sure how that works on a tablet ?
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by yahyah »

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:Bit of an odd link, but thought it might cheer people up a little. After the Pride Of Britain Award ceremony, held last night at the Dorchester Hotel, a certain politician found himself very much in demand with the ladies, all wanting a 'selfie' with him; not bad for somebody "weird looking" - can you imagine people flocking to have their picture taken with Shiny Dave of Spineless Nick?

http://www.redneckgossip.com/2014/10/07 ... iveOldPost" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Vote for Ed the babe-magnet :clap:
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by pk1 »

:lol:
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

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TheGrimSqueaker wrote:Bit of an odd link, but thought it might cheer people up a little. After the Pride Of Britain Award ceremony, held last night at the Dorchester Hotel, a certain politician found himself very much in demand with the ladies, all wanting a 'selfie' with him; not bad for somebody "weird looking" - can you imagine people flocking to have their picture taken with Shiny Dave or Spineless Nick?

http://www.redneckgossip.com/2014/10/07 ... iveOldPost" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Following the death of his son from meningitis Steve spent the past 30 years helping families who were affected by the deadly disease.

His son Spencer died aged just 14 months old back in 1982. But Steve, 66, set up a series of fund-raising charities to help research meningitis.

Ed praised Steve’s “extraordinary courage and humility” in his battle to save children with meningitis.

And he said he particularly loved the Mirror Pride of Britain awards “because they show what is so great with our country.”

“I think Steve is an incredible guy, there are so many people hearing his story and thinking how would I deal with that tragedy, no one could imagine doing what he has done. As a dad myself of course I feel that. It is the true definition of courage, he is a true hero. What he did is unimaginable, his response has been extraordinary.
Is Ed maybe trying to say
whereas that famous politician, currently squatting in No 10, cut support for other disabled people
?
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by pk1 »

Duncan Enright is standing as Labour's candidate in Witney & is campaigning in an unusual fashion:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Does the latest YouGov have Labour ahead in the raw figures, like the last two?
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by adam »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Does the latest YouGov have Labour ahead in the raw figures, like the last two?
No - unweighted is 483 to 459 out of a sample of 1739, which goes to weighted numbers of 479 to 456.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by minch »

adam wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Does the latest YouGov have Labour ahead in the raw figures, like the last two?
No - unweighted is 483 to 459 out of a sample of 1739, which goes to weighted numbers of 479 to 456.
I think one of the problems is that too much attention is made to the headline figure.
What the polls are actually saying is that 19 times out of 20 (for 95% confidence levels) the real value lies between the headline value +- X ( where X is usually between 2 and 3% for these polls). So Labour could be above the Tories and nothing would be wrong with the polls. Given how many polls there are a significant number will be also be outside these bands. If the polls were published with bands rather than a central number much less would be made of them.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by pk1 »

adam wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Does the latest YouGov have Labour ahead in the raw figures, like the last two?
No - unweighted is 483 to 459 out of a sample of 1739, which goes to weighted numbers of 479 to 456.
UNS on today's figures shows Labour short of 17 seats for a majority. LD would only have 9 seats so a rainbow coalition would need forming or Lab go with minority administration - yikes !

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by adam »

The guardian always claim that they give particular attention to their ICM polls precisely because they are their polls, and don't report other polls (which have consistently shown bigger Labour leads and even more pitiful LibDem figures) because they aren't theirs. When the Observer's regular polling shows comfortable labour leads they don't even run the results as a separate story, just burying it within a headline story about other polling matters.

Today they've put a headline story about the YouGov poll on the website's front page.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by pk1 »

7 Reasons Why Ed Miliband Is On Course For Victory In 2015

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10 ... 1412678396" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Guardian's still rubbish.

Labour trapped between "Ed Miliband, useless, eh" and some poor article by Aditya Chakrabortty where he mentions the improbable figure of £85bn a year for corporate welfare.

It includes "the public procurement from the private sector". Which isn't welfare at all. It's, er, procurement. And some companies not paying tax, with no mention why. Could be no tax profits- quite a hard climate.

So readers get given the impression there's all this easy money out there (as with tax avoidance) but everyone's too weak or whatever to collect it.

Makes people cynical about party politics, even more than they need to be.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by pk1 »

adam wrote:The guardian always claim that they give particular attention to their ICM polls precisely because they are their polls, and don't report other polls (which have consistently shown bigger Labour leads and even more pitiful LibDem figures) because they aren't theirs. When the Observer's regular polling shows comfortable labour leads they don't even run the results as a separate story, just burying it within a headline story about other polling matters.

Today they've put a headline story about the YouGov poll on the website's front page.
I've just read that very article & if that doesn't tell us how anti-Labour the Graun are, nothing will.

One of the comments however pointed to this very handy blog:

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/u ... onal-debt/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good diagrams, easy explanations & one which most tories, incl yellow ones, wouldn't want exposed because it doesn't support their 'Labour crashed the car' mantra.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by Temulkar »

I have said it before and will say it again. The polls are bunkum.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Temulkar wrote:I have said it before and will say it again. The polls are bunkum.
Well, they were fairly accurate in the Euro elections and the Scottish referendum.

Let's not shoot the messenger here.......
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by LadyCentauria »

Jonathon Hill will be called for a second appearance re his nomination as EU Commissioner. People are concerned about him being a bit lightweight and about a Brit being in charge of a finance portfolio which has a strong effect on Eurozone countries... (Garnered from listening to A Neil on DP)
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by RogerOThornhill »

LadyCentauria wrote:Jonathon Hill will be called for a second appearance re his nomination as EU Commissioner. People are concerned about him being a bit lightweight and about a Brit being in charge of a finance portfolio which has a strong effect on Eurozone countries... (Garnered from listening to A Neil on DP)
That's probably because he is a lightweight - have a look at his business background...in PR and lobbying.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_H ... f_Oareford
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by LadyCentauria »

RogerOThornhill wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:Jonathon Hill will be called for a second appearance re his nomination as EU Commissioner. People are concerned about him being a bit lightweight and about a Brit being in charge of a finance portfolio which has a strong effect on Eurozone countries... (Garnered from listening to A Neil on DP)
That's probably because he is a lightweight - have a look at his business background...in PR and lobbying.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_H ... f_Oareford
I heartily concur with your assessment – and with the concerns of the MEPs etc., who questioned him in the first round :) And I completely failed to notice that this Commissioner Hearing is live on BBC Parliament now... My butterfly mind is on too many other things...
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by PorFavor »

LadyCentauria wrote:Jonathon Hill will be called for a second appearance re his nomination as EU Commissioner. People are concerned about him being a bit lightweight and about a Brit being in charge of a finance portfolio which has a strong effect on Eurozone countries... (Garnered from listening to A Neil on DP)

He was embarrassingly awful last time.

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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by HindleA »

Afternoon.Lib Dems vote to keep the bedroom tax.Wilful ignorance.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by LadyCentauria »

HindleA wrote:Afternoon.Lib Dems vote to keep the bedroom tax.Wilful ignorance.
Afternoon!

What!? I thought their members had voted to abolish it at the last two conferences? Do you think they now imagine that the Andrew George bill goes far enough? That is, if it gets any further than it already has done...
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by ErnstRemarx »

Another interesting blog - don't know if we've seen this one before...

http://shirazsocialist.wordpress.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by AngryAsWell »

Harry Smith on R 5 live now
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by Temulkar »

ErnstRemarx wrote:Another interesting blog - don't know if we've seen this one before...

http://shirazsocialist.wordpress.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

HindleA wrote:Afternoon.Lib Dems vote to keep the bedroom tax.Wilful ignorance.
You are far too polite with the 'wilful ignorance'.

How could anybody vote for them with any confidence, or even sense of probability, that they knew what they would actually do if in power? These duplicitious twits probably don't recognise their own body parts, they've changed their stance so often.
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

If you don't like Richard Littlejohn you'll like this

http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2014/ ... gaffe.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

LadyCentauria wrote:
HindleA wrote:Afternoon.Lib Dems vote to keep the bedroom tax.Wilful ignorance.
Afternoon!

What!? I thought their members had voted to abolish it at the last two conferences? Do you think they now imagine that the Andrew George bill goes far enough? That is, if it gets any further than it already has done...
The sensible, moderate members who voted against it at the last two conferences have now voted with their feet, it is only the Orange Bookers left. I suspect Rachel Reeves will be all over that decision like a rash (as they say) and I can't imagine Beaker is relishing the prospect. :D
AngryAsWell wrote:Harry Smith on R 5 live now
Started reading his book this morning, he speaks so movingly and with such passion!
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
HindleA wrote:Afternoon.Lib Dems vote to keep the bedroom tax.Wilful ignorance.
Afternoon!

What!? I thought their members had voted to abolish it at the last two conferences? Do you think they now imagine that the Andrew George bill goes far enough? That is, if it gets any further than it already has done...
The sensible, moderate members who voted against it at the last two conferences have now voted with their feet, it is only the Orange Bookers left. I suspect Rachel Reeves will be all over that decision like a rash (as they say) and I can't imagine Beaker is relishing the prospect. :D
I expect you're right about it being the right wing rump who allowed this to happen. But I hope you're right about Rachel Reeves being all over it ... any sign of attack / life from her over the latest 'welfare' proposals from either of the coalition parties would be most welcome.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Tuesday 7th October 2014

Post by rebeccariots2 »

The Guardian ‏@guardian 11m11 minutes ago
University tuition fees likely to rise significantly, Vince Cable says http://gu.com/p/4288j/tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Is he being on message - or wildly off the leash? (I haven't looked at said report yet.)
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