Tuesday 18th February 2020

[refitman]

Morning all.

[RogerOThornhill]

Morning all.

Criticism of a barely functioning Government is always welcome - especially when it comes from the own side...

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That is pretty bizarre - not sending anyone of any stature* to a major conference because a cabinet meeting got in the way.


* They sent James Cleverly...

[adam]

Morning all.

Criticism of a barely functioning Government is always welcome - especially when it comes from the own side...

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That is pretty bizarre - not sending anyone of any stature* to a major conference because a cabinet meeting got in the way.

* They sent James Cleverly...

"I can only hope this was a momentary lapse in judgement'. Bless.

[adam]

‘It’s scandalous’: when free schools shut for want of a permanent home

Overall, 27 free schools have had to close or change management. Sometimes children have been left with little or no education for weeks following a school closure while their parents search for a place elsewhere. Since 2016, some 92 schools have opened in temporary accommodation and of these, just 27 have moved into a permanent home. Last year alone, 25 schools opened on a temporary site.

This, I think, is an excellent model for Brexit, and indeed for the whole 'creative destrution' idea that flogs itself as a key part of Cummings' and Johnson's 'thinking'. Let's change everything, and shake it all up. Think of the opportunities there will be! What do you mean plans, or problems. I'm sorry, 'net' benefits? I don't follow. Government by stupid ignorant dangerous fools.

[RogerOThornhill]

"I can only hope this was a momentary lapse in judgement'. Bless.

Given the last couple of days I fear his hopes might be dashed...

[Willow904]

For once we can't complain the press failed to ask the relevant questions. They did, repeatedly, and the responses have been published in full so we can all see just how insulting they are:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No10 refuse to say if Boris Johnson thinks black people are mentally inferior

[RogerOThornhill]

Apparently if you look back at what people have actually said you're now an "offence archaeologist."

It's been pointed out that since it relates to the written word it should be "offence historian."

I'm sure the people defending Sabisky will be as lenient on others who say things from 10-20-30-40 years ago...

[adam]

We won't budge on escaping EU rules, says UK's Brexit negotiator

The democratic consent of the British public would “snap dramatically and finally” if the UK continued to be tied to EU rules, Boris Johnson’s chief Brexit negotiator has said.

Which means, obviously, that a mandate to leave the EU in such an economically destructive manner would no longer be valid. I think that's what he's saying, anyway.

[adam]

Apparently if you look back at what people have actually said you're now an "offence archaeologist."

It's been pointed out that since it relates to the written word it should be "offence historian."

I'm sure the people defending Sabisky will be as lenient on others who say things from 10-20-30-40 years ago...

It's a tap-in, I know, but it doesn't get better than claims being made that Toby Young's twitter hate speech was just youthful indiscretion, despite the fact that Twitter didn't exist until he was in his late 40s.

[Willow904]

Apparently if you look back at what people have actually said you're now an "offence archaeologist."

It's been pointed out that since it relates to the written word it should be "offence historian."

I'm sure the people defending Sabisky will be as lenient on others who say things from 10-20-30-40 years ago...

He's 27 so unearthing something he said 30 years ago would be pretty impressive

[RogerOThornhill]

He's 27 so unearthing something he said 30 years ago would be pretty impressive

Yes, I noticed Andrew Lilico trying the "Oh, but it was an awful long time ago! line yesterday.

Andrew Lilico
‏@andrew_lilico
Follow Follow @andrew_lilico
MoreAndrew Lilico Retweeted Tom Newton Dunn
I've no idea whether Sabisky is a good hire or not. But I do believe it's long past time we ended this business of allowing journalists to get new advisors fired by trawling up a few tweets, blogposts & student rag articles they wrote at school or uni.

[RogerOThornhill]

But this from him is actually spot on.

Andrew Lilico
‏@andrew_lilico
Feb 15
More
We talk of "thinking outside the box" as if it were hard, but it's not. Anyone can say "Why not try cutting the budget deficit by getting 200 sardines & dressing them as characters from a Molière play?" Anyone can do that. There's nothing clever about it

And I notice Tebbit putting the boot into Cummings yesterday in the DT.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Just found out that Sabisky has fathered six children by the age of 28. That is fairly......unusual, these days.

[Willow904]

That Boris Johnson would employ someone who shares his views and attitudes towards women and black people is possibly less surprising than that he would employ a 'political forecaster' who failed to forecast Brexit.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Anyway the right wing line seems to be he was "forced out" by "liberal elite cancel culture".

Does this "liberal elite" include the significant Tory/centre-right disquiet at his appointment? Probably it does to such people, yeah.

[Willow904]

Personally I suspect the reason Sabisky so promptly resigned was because his unpleasant and ill-founded opinions were being forensically torn to shreds by people with much greater intelligence and expertise than himself, with the evidence and research to support them that his own assertions lack.

[citizenJA]

Good afternoon, everyone.

[AnatolyKasparov]

How good was his "superforecasting", anyway?

[Willow904]

I'm only finding examples on the negative side, such as this from 2016:

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/andrew-sabisk ... orecaster/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, in this week of turmoil what does his crystal ball show for schools?

He wants a more specific question.

Given Boris Johnson and Theresa May are forerunners to be the next prime minister, and both are grammar school advocates, will grammar schools return within two years?

“If it’s Boris, and I do think it will be Boris, my gut answer is no.”

[AnatolyKasparov]

Six local council byelections last week:

Hertsmere DC - Tory gain from Labour with nearly half the vote in a ward which split 2Lab/1C last year in all-out elections after boundary changes. The split happened in a fairly unusual way too - two Labour candidates tied for the third and last councillor, so lots had to be drawn; the unfortunate one who lost out then was their candidate this time too. Tory support was actually only slightly up on last year, but it was then a straight fight - Labour seem to have lost out now from the interventions of both LibDems with nearly 7% and Greens who managed about half that.

Waverley DC - Independent hold with just over half the vote in a ward which split 1LD/1Ind last year. That was something of a change from previous contests - in 2003 LibDems ran Tories fairly close for the two seats in a straight fight, but the Tories subsequently made things very safe before an Independent ran them close in 2015 - a sign of what was to come. Last year the Tories were relegated to a poor third place, and though they recovered strongly this time the LibDems deciding to stand aside for this one seems to have helped the Indies to victory. A second Independent - in this case the former UKIP candidate a year ago - polled nearly 13%, change of label notwithstanding little changed since then.

East Staffordshire DC - Tory hold in a very safe ward for them, beating Labour in a straight fight by almost 4 to 1. Since 2003 when the LibDems took a distant second place, Labour has provided the sole opposition to the Tories here - save for 2015 when the blue team were actually unopposed. This was actually a very similar result to 2011, but 5 points better for Labour than a previous byelection later that year and a full 9 points improved on 2019 - this must have been one of the highest Tory shares anywhere in that generally poor set of elections.

Thanet DC - Tory hold with just over half the vote in a ward where they took both seats last year, a reversion to type in a ward that had been safe for them since 2003 but UKIP took a seat in their 2015 breakthrough election. However they did not even stand a year ago and the Tories consolidated on their win then with a 14% increase in their vote. Greens took second place last time and also had a double figure increase to approaching 30% - Labour down on last year, though they still overtook the Indy candidate who beat them then as the latter dropped six points to 10%.

Huntingdonshire DC - Tory hold with 46% of the vote, little changed on the 2018 all out elections with boundary changes (when this council also moved away from elections by thirds) when two Tories were elected here against fairly evenly divided Labour and LibDem opposition. Not much separated them this time either, though the LibDems just overtook Labour to push the latter into last place. The fact both polled under 10% tells its own story however, as an Independent entered the fray and polled quite a strong second with over 35%.

Derbyshire CC - the contest that attracted the most interest also saw a quite striking result as the former Labour MP for High Peak took this division from the Tories with 50% of the vote and a swing of around 15% since the previous 2017 contest when they had also been the Labour candidate and came third, albeit in a fairly close three way split (of course, they were not to become an MP for a few more months then) In fact Labour also finished third in the three previous contests since 2005 - though it was an even closer three way fight in 2013 which was also the last of the three elections here that the LibDems won - they dropped by 14 points to less than 20% this time, and third place. An Independent councillor for High Peak DC tried their luck for this county contest, but scored barely 1% - that they actually represent a ward outside this division maybe didn't help.

Just one contest this week.

[HindleA]

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... ainlyMacro+(mainly+macro" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)&m=1

[citizenJA]

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... macro)&m=1

"We have to wait for the BES survey before we can tell whether these were also the voters who finally broke Labour’s ‘red wall’ of northern constituencies... ."

When is this survey due out? Anyone know?

[AnatolyKasparov]

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... macro)&m=1

Interesting piece as ever, though living in a "socially conservative" area I can't help responding with "its a bit more complicated than that".

[tinyclanger2]

Not sure if this helps but I guess this is how I feel:

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[tinyclanger2]

Which is why we need more than two sides

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Been back up in the borders over the weekend.

A barmaid (mid 60's) told me she'd not been to visit her sister in Dewsbury for nearly 20 years because "The place is swarming with Pakis". Her husband, the proprietor, was a Geordie who used to write for the Evening Chronicle who told me as soon as he retired he left Newcastle because "The darkies and Pakis were taking over". He runs the pub as a shrine to Newcastle United and has a signed photograph of himself with Les Ferdinand shaking hands in pride of place above the bar. Presumably he didn't call Ferdinand a darkie or I imagine that photograph would look slightly different.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

The best thing was seeing someone had opened a place called 'TITS' with a sign in the window saying 'flog it with TITS'.

Apparently it stands for 'Tweedside independent traders' and they run car boot sales.

According to my dad a number of misery guts had already complained to the council.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

And it seems they even have a website.

http://flogitwithtits.co.uk/

Will have to check to see if they have any second hand government advisors.

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

[adam]

And it seems they even have a website.

http://flogitwithtits.co.uk/

Will have to check to see if they have any second hand government advisors.

Channel 5's late night take on an antiques show?

[AnatolyKasparov]

Ah nice to hear from you Sky, I noticed the lack of your usual Sunday night/Monday morning contributions

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Channel 5's late night take on an antiques show?

Far too classy for CH5, I mean look at what they have on now.

Extraordinary People

At just 2ft 7in tall, Georgia Rankin is charismatic, charming and happy, despite suffering constant pain in her joints. This documentary follows her from her 18th to her 19th birthday, including a trip to America to meet a medical expert in dwarfism to finally get her condition diagnosed. She also finds out about using cannabis oil for pain relief, as well as attending the Reading Festival with her best friend

Do you think if Georgia was a teen in a wheelchair with Spina Bifida fighting the benefits system they'd be so keen to portray her story for their audience to gawp at?

Or how about the report by John Harris in the Guardian about a bloke's 15 year old son with autism being sectioned and kept in a cell with a bowl as a toilet in a privately run facility at the behest of the NHS and Local Authority?

Nope, let's just get our viewers to gawp at the dwarf girl while pretending this is anything other than a very small step up from visiting Bedlam for titillation.

(Sorry seems I've gone off on one again).

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Ah nice to hear from you Sky, I noticed the lack of your usual Sunday night/Monday morning contributions

Thanks AK, I was actually home on Sunday evening but got caught up in a really annoying war playing CIV6 which required me to spend a great deal of time and effort to eventually nuke Nubia.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Anyway all being well I plan on renewing the QT review on Thursday.

I haven't watched it at all since the election and I can't say I'm looking forward to the prospect.

A lot of things are depressing me.

[youtube]u9gPY7jhO2E[/youtube]

[Sky'sGoneOut]

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[Sky'sGoneOut]

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