FlyTheNest

Morning all.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ssion=true



This was always a possibility, even likely, despite minimal symptoms. So a government following "the science" and keeping schools open wasn't following science at all, but was using the gaps in knowledge to make assumptions that favoured the economy (and to pursue a policy of everyone getting it rather than a policy of prevention).

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

Don't we have info to assess whether children are passing it on, now that some teachers are working in school with kids of key workers, are they getting sick?

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One world, like it or not - John Martyn

Sir Simon McDonald at the FO has been involved in at least 2 controversies recently, here's another one.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 0670787591

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One world, like it or not - John Martyn

Suspect that, much like the rest of us, Sir Simon finds it hard to keep up with what his masters actually want.

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One world, like it or not - John Martyn

https://amp.ft.com/content/9680c20f-7b7 ... ssion=true



Should we be surprised a story about our government would be one of complacency and bumbling incompetence? While it's not surprising government didn't have the ability to do specific things like organise overseas procurement of PPE, it's quite staggering and incomprehensible that they didn't have the ability to ask for advice and input from those that do. Along with a SAGE panel that had startling gaps in knowledge and experience, our government's biggest problem appears to be working out who is best placed to know stuff. In my brief time in management I worked out that if you want to know what's going wrong you ask people doing the job on the shopfloor, not the people supervising the people doing the job on the shopfloor because if the people supervising knew what they were doing, nothing would be going wrong in the first place. Obvious really and it's mostly class prejudice and a false belief in the superiority of those from the "right" background, regardless of actual experience and ability, that leaves Britain forever wallowing in managerial underperformance.

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

Other than NHS workers, we're mostly not getting any info on the professions of those affected, so I'm not sure if we have the info or not. Needless to say, the info we do have isn't being promoted if it tells the wrong story. Proportionally Transport for London has experienced a higher death rate than the NHS so far but we're not really talking about how to better protect bus drivers. If teachers have been disproportionately affected, we would need to likewise work out how to better protect them, not easy. But certainly, many schools shut or partially shut before the government officially closed them due to so many staff off ill or self-isolating because family members were ill so it was always a pretty good assumption it was spreading quite freely through schools, risking teachers, dinner ladies, office staff, school bus drivers and collecting parents and grandparents even if you believed the smaller risk of death to children themselves as acceptable to take, which of course most parents don't. Even a 0.01% mortality rate could see over 1,000 deaths if all children got it.

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

But on this at least they could claim to be following "the science", as some studies had claimed kids were indeed "lower risk".

Which shows, if nothing else, how "the science" isn't an uncontested unproblematic thing.

Children were thought to be at lower risk of serious symptoms, yes, but I'm not aware of any previous studies on how contagious they may be and the fact that all the data we were initially getting was coming from countries that took an early decision to close all schools I can't see where the data leading to the idea that closing them would only have a minimal effect could have come from. Filling gaps in knowledge with assumptions isn't "science" imo.

Edited to clarify my point that children in China might not have been catching it as frequently because they weren't in school.

_________________
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

Tom Watson, you are (thankfully) no longer anybody important.

Be quiet.

This is a great twitter thread. American, but still very relevant:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ginasue/stat ... 3797462016

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

BTW if being allowed out to exercise is Spain "coming out of lockdown" does that mean we've never truly been in lockdown? Everyone's saying Sweden is an outlier for not locking down yet the measures they have introduced aren't very different from the UK. Can we really bring the numbers down like Spain without the tougher measures?

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

There are other "lockdowns" out there similar to ours tbf. Its rather a flexible definition and tbh I agree the "difference" regarding Sweden is spin as well as reality.

Our experience (and I only know this from a distance, I've not been in at all) is that hardly any kids are going in - and we have a lot of kids who would be eligible to. So we're talking about very low numbers to spot patterns in.

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I still believe in a town called Hope

We have 8 going in out of a school roll of about 670. Minimal staff in and majority at home. I think of our EHCPs we have 2 in school and 20 at home.

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If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.

I'm just musing as to whether we can realistically expect to follow in Spain's success in getting the numbers down without more stringent measures. The twitter thread I linked above is very good at highlighting the areas I worry we haven't paid enough attention to. Shops are shut but lots of other work still going on with next to no public health oversight into whether it's going on safely or contributing to continued spread.

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

Good morfternoon.

Spam alert!

Done. Battered? Frittered away?

We have three local secondaries in an academy trust with a total of something like 2500-3000 students. I'm not sure exactly how many kids are going in, but the schools are taking it in turns for any and all of the partnership kids to go to just one, a week at a time, and covering them with about ten staff, putting departments in each school on a rota.

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I still believe in a town called Hope

Sunday Telegraph reporting that the PM will announce next Sunday that primary schools will reopen on 1st June.

I could envisage a slow trickle of pupils coming back in - it'll take a few weeks for parents to be convinced that it's safe.

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If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.

The whispers I've seen and heard suggest reopening in the first instance for Y6, Y10 and Y12. There is no possible way of social distancing in a secondary school with everyone back in. I don't doubt that we're going to see movement here, but it will be interesting to see how gradual it is.

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I still believe in a town called Hope

Social distancing and hygiene will be challenging to put in place in primary schools so either lockdown is ending for everyone or children and the parents that will be congregating to collect them will become guinea pigs. I'm assuming, of course, based on prior experience, that the government doesn't have a grand and detailed plan to get around this.

It's only hearsay, but a Bulgarian colleague of my husband told him she's heard reports of people collapsing and dying in the streets in Bulgaria. Something similar happened in the village last week. We heard a lot of sirens and thought there'd been a car accident but it's saying in this week's paper that a man had collapsed and died in the road. It might not be coronavirus related, of course, but still an unsettling story.

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

Good morfternoon.

Andrew Marr apparently saying this morning that "everybody" wants schools to return on June 1st. Why is he seemingly addicted to baseless assertions like this?

By "everybody" I presume he means "a small minority of people", judging by this poll:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ssion=true


Perhaps if the government shared their plans for how places like schools can be reopened safely, with minimal risk to staff and pupils, people would be more supportive?
Though really infection rates have to be shown to have come down significantly before any easing of measures can be considered and we don't seem to be there yet.

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"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb

I've noticed that the current state of affairs has, mercifully, caused some people in the media to revert to saying "in the future" as distinct from "going forward".

Just a reminder, in case anybody has forgotten, that tomorrow isn't a bank holiday as the first Monday in May normally is - as its on Friday 8th instead.

(so this thread is in fact correctly titled)

So its not just membership, merely "supporting" a non-Tory party makes you suspect now?

Good afternoon, everyone.

I would have thought that Head Teachers need to be convinced first. Without their support, parents won't entertain the idea.

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If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.

Going Forward, maybe a signed affidavit of synpathy for , or ideally membership of a non-left wing party could be provided.

Government Briefing with Michael Gove and Prof. Stephen Powis.

Where's the other bloke today?

Having a day off presumably?

Coronavirus: work times could be staggered to help end lockdown, says Shapps

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ays-shapps

Nations successfully preventing the spread of COVID-19 use temperature checks, Shapps. Think about that. Shapps. Think.

I've made a big rhubarb raspberry blueberry port crumble
help yourselves

Beyond him.
They do seem to be totally oblivious to what's going on elsewhere.
How do you even know if your temperature is slightly elevated?

Much the same with masks, the point surely is that you might have the virus without any symptoms at all and a mask stops you passing it on.

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One world, like it or not - John Martyn

Speaking of Shapps, has everyone seen this clip from Ridge?

https://twitter.com/marcusjdl/status/12 ... 0030526464

_________________
One world, like it or not - John Martyn

Don't have Twitter & can't get it to play on my phone, just get a spinning circle, maybe it's like an auto censoring potter's wheel,

Also saw in Guardian report on Andrew Marr,

Oh dear,
Twitter link worked in different browser,
truly awful.

A friend earlier was telling me about when he used to live with an alcoholic painter and decorator. Apparently this guy would turn up for a job, do a tiny bit of work, then leave his brushes there and go and get pissed in the nearest pub. When the unhappy client rang him he would claim he'd had to go and get supplies, paint or plaster or whatever, and point to the fact that his tools were there and a tiny bit of work had been done as evidence that the job would eventually be finished.

I asked him if the guy's name was Matt Hancock.

I repeat myself from the other day,I know,but the interesting comparison I think is with South Korea. Population 10-15million smaller but quite a bit more densely populated. One infection to every 20 here, one death to every 100 here (ish). 'Densely Populated' always sounds to me a bit like 'but some of my best friends are...'

Also - 'counting in a way that other counties don't'- yeah, by avoiding counting obvious cases. One of the reasons that Belgium's per capita death rate is so high is that they decided to include every care home death in the count.

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I still believe in a town called Hope

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

I trust everyone's already seen the study in The Lancet that show's the model the government used for their initial testing, tracking and tracing, then subsequent abandoning of it, was fatally flawed.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30219-9/fulltext

The model was based on the assumption that tests would take between 3·83 days (short) and 8·09 days (long)—on the basis of data from the SARS-CoV epidemic, so that was the delay factored in between people being symptomatic and being isolated.

Whereas in fact, by this time, several rapid tests with a turnaround time of less than 4 h had been developed internationally, with some having received relevant regulatory approvals.

And that, Using the authors' original code, we demonstrate that when the delay is changed to a median of 1 day, the model predicts the probability of controlling the epidemic within 12 weeks to be more than 80%.

So in essence we're in lockdown because of a flawed model used by the government at the very beginning that was created by members of Sage. Dr Joel Hellewell and Professor John Edmunds, who've both responded to the criticism by claiming that we didn't have the capacity and the cost would have been too high.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30217-5/fulltext

And this would be same Professor John Edmunds who appeared on CH4 news in early March advocating herd immunity.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0314/1123204-britain-coronavirus/

In a Channel 4 news special programme on the virus shown on Friday night, Professor John Edwards, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who also advises the British government, said there are two ways to deal with this virus.

Either stamp it out by curing every person in the whole world who is infected, which we are no longer able to do, or managing the spread of the virus until herd immunity is reached. When challenged about a potentially large death toll, he said "there is no way out of this".

Unpleasantly disturbing but very good, I think.

I need subtitles for Jeffrey Lewis, I liked the song but kept losing track of the narrative, this may be a problem at my end.

The lyrics are available on youtube but, unfortunately, they come without the music (so far as I can discover).