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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 6:45 am 
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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 8:49 am 
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https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ssion=true

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“The end result is as clear as glass,” Drosten said on his podcast with the broadcaster NDR. “Children do not have significantly different concentrations of the virus in their respiratory passages compared to adults.”


This was always a possibility, even likely, despite minimal symptoms. So a government following "the science" and keeping schools open wasn't following science at all, but was using the gaps in knowledge to make assumptions that favoured the economy (and to pursue a policy of everyone getting it rather than a policy of prevention).

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 9:33 am 
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Don't we have info to assess whether children are passing it on, now that some teachers are working in school with kids of key workers, are they getting sick?

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 9:36 am 
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Sir Simon McDonald at the FO has been involved in at least 2 controversies recently, here's another one.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 0670787591

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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
14/ On February 11, 2019 Sir Simon replied. Not only did the UK support the idea of a continued presence in Belfast, it supported EU offices in Edinburgh and Cardiff as well...


Tony Connelly
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16/ Yet just 12 months later the same Sir Simon summarily rejected Schmid's request to revive the issue.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 9:37 am 
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Suspect that, much like the rest of us, Sir Simon finds it hard to keep up with what his masters actually want.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 9:57 am 
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https://amp.ft.com/content/9680c20f-7b7 ... ssion=true

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How poor planning left the UK without enough PPE | Free to read


Should we be surprised a story about our government would be one of complacency and bumbling incompetence? While it's not surprising government didn't have the ability to do specific things like organise overseas procurement of PPE, it's quite staggering and incomprehensible that they didn't have the ability to ask for advice and input from those that do. Along with a SAGE panel that had startling gaps in knowledge and experience, our government's biggest problem appears to be working out who is best placed to know stuff. In my brief time in management I worked out that if you want to know what's going wrong you ask people doing the job on the shopfloor, not the people supervising the people doing the job on the shopfloor because if the people supervising knew what they were doing, nothing would be going wrong in the first place. Obvious really and it's mostly class prejudice and a false belief in the superiority of those from the "right" background, regardless of actual experience and ability, that leaves Britain forever wallowing in managerial underperformance.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 10:21 am 
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gilsey wrote:
Don't we have info to assess whether children are passing it on, now that some teachers are working in school with kids of key workers, are they getting sick?


Other than NHS workers, we're mostly not getting any info on the professions of those affected, so I'm not sure if we have the info or not. Needless to say, the info we do have isn't being promoted if it tells the wrong story. Proportionally Transport for London has experienced a higher death rate than the NHS so far but we're not really talking about how to better protect bus drivers. If teachers have been disproportionately affected, we would need to likewise work out how to better protect them, not easy. But certainly, many schools shut or partially shut before the government officially closed them due to so many staff off ill or self-isolating because family members were ill so it was always a pretty good assumption it was spreading quite freely through schools, risking teachers, dinner ladies, office staff, school bus drivers and collecting parents and grandparents even if you believed the smaller risk of death to children themselves as acceptable to take, which of course most parents don't. Even a 0.01% mortality rate could see over 1,000 deaths if all children got it.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 10:28 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/children-as-likely-to-spread-coronavirus-as-adults-says-scientist?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

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“The end result is as clear as glass,” Drosten said on his podcast with the broadcaster NDR. “Children do not have significantly different concentrations of the virus in their respiratory passages compared to adults.”


This was always a possibility, even likely, despite minimal symptoms. So a government following "the science" and keeping schools open wasn't following science at all, but was using the gaps in knowledge to make assumptions that favoured the economy (and to pursue a policy of everyone getting it rather than a policy of prevention).


But on this at least they could claim to be following "the science", as some studies had claimed kids were indeed "lower risk".

Which shows, if nothing else, how "the science" isn't an uncontested unproblematic thing.


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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 10:48 am 
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Children were thought to be at lower risk of serious symptoms, yes, but I'm not aware of any previous studies on how contagious they may be and the fact that all the data we were initially getting was coming from countries that took an early decision to close all schools I can't see where the data leading to the idea that closing them would only have a minimal effect could have come from. Filling gaps in knowledge with assumptions isn't "science" imo.

Edited to clarify my point that children in China might not have been catching it as frequently because they weren't in school.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 11:43 am 
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Tom Watson, you are (thankfully) no longer anybody important.

Be quiet.


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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 12:32 pm 
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This is a great twitter thread. American, but still very relevant:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ginasue/stat ... 3797462016
Quote:
Gina Neff
@ginasue
To fight this pandemic we must use stories.

Here's a story: So-called superspreader "events" for coronavirus in the US are among the poor, working class and marginalized. And they are at their work.

To get ahead and stop this virus we must tell the right stories. (thread)
2:14 PM · Apr 30, 2020

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 12:47 pm 
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BTW if being allowed out to exercise is Spain "coming out of lockdown" does that mean we've never truly been in lockdown? Everyone's saying Sweden is an outlier for not locking down yet the measures they have introduced aren't very different from the UK. Can we really bring the numbers down like Spain without the tougher measures?

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 1:12 pm 
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There are other "lockdowns" out there similar to ours tbf. Its rather a flexible definition and tbh I agree the "difference" regarding Sweden is spin as well as reality.


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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 1:14 pm 
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gilsey wrote:
Don't we have info to assess whether children are passing it on, now that some teachers are working in school with kids of key workers, are they getting sick?


Our experience (and I only know this from a distance, I've not been in at all) is that hardly any kids are going in - and we have a lot of kids who would be eligible to. So we're talking about very low numbers to spot patterns in.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 1:48 pm 
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adam wrote:
gilsey wrote:
Don't we have info to assess whether children are passing it on, now that some teachers are working in school with kids of key workers, are they getting sick?


Our experience (and I only know this from a distance, I've not been in at all) is that hardly any kids are going in - and we have a lot of kids who would be eligible to. So we're talking about very low numbers to spot patterns in.


We have 8 going in out of a school roll of about 670. Minimal staff in and majority at home. I think of our EHCPs we have 2 in school and 20 at home.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 1:50 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
There are other "lockdowns" out there similar to ours tbf. Its rather a flexible definition and tbh I agree the "difference" regarding Sweden is spin as well as reality.


I'm just musing as to whether we can realistically expect to follow in Spain's success in getting the numbers down without more stringent measures. The twitter thread I linked above is very good at highlighting the areas I worry we haven't paid enough attention to. Shops are shut but lots of other work still going on with next to no public health oversight into whether it's going on safely or contributing to continued spread.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 2:23 pm 
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Good morfternoon.

Quote:
The shadow mental health minister and A&E doctor Rosena Allin-Khan has written to Matt Hancock to seek assurances that medics are getting the support they need. In her letter to the health secretary, she said:

Increasingly, NHS staff are breaking down - I see it first-hand working shifts.

From a fear of spreading the virus to patients and loved ones, a lack of PPE, an increased workload owing to the number of cases and staff absences, to being redeployed to ICUs and witnessing more patients die, staff are experiencing greater pressure, which is inevitably taking its toll on their mental health.

At this time of crisis, staff mental health must be a priority now. It simply cannot be an afterthought once the acute stage of the crisis is over. (Politics Live, Guardian)


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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 7:09 pm 
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Spam alert!


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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 8:42 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Spam alert!


Done. Battered? Frittered away?

We have three local secondaries in an academy trust with a total of something like 2500-3000 students. I'm not sure exactly how many kids are going in, but the schools are taking it in turns for any and all of the partnership kids to go to just one, a week at a time, and covering them with about ten staff, putting departments in each school on a rota.

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PostPosted: Sat 02 May, 2020 10:53 pm 
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Sunday Telegraph reporting that the PM will announce next Sunday that primary schools will reopen on 1st June.

I could envisage a slow trickle of pupils coming back in - it'll take a few weeks for parents to be convinced that it's safe.

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 9:16 am 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
Sunday Telegraph reporting that the PM will announce next Sunday that primary schools will reopen on 1st June.

I could envisage a slow trickle of pupils coming back in - it'll take a few weeks for parents to be convinced that it's safe.


The whispers I've seen and heard suggest reopening in the first instance for Y6, Y10 and Y12. There is no possible way of social distancing in a secondary school with everyone back in. I don't doubt that we're going to see movement here, but it will be interesting to see how gradual it is.

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 9:19 am 
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Social distancing and hygiene will be challenging to put in place in primary schools so either lockdown is ending for everyone or children and the parents that will be congregating to collect them will become guinea pigs. I'm assuming, of course, based on prior experience, that the government doesn't have a grand and detailed plan to get around this.

It's only hearsay, but a Bulgarian colleague of my husband told him she's heard reports of people collapsing and dying in the streets in Bulgaria. Something similar happened in the village last week. We heard a lot of sirens and thought there'd been a car accident but it's saying in this week's paper that a man had collapsed and died in the road. It might not be coronavirus related, of course, but still an unsettling story.

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:10 am 
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Good morfternoon.


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:53 am 
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Andrew Marr apparently saying this morning that "everybody" wants schools to return on June 1st. Why is he seemingly addicted to baseless assertions like this?


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 12:43 pm 
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By "everybody" I presume he means "a small minority of people", judging by this poll:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ssion=true
Quote:
The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.


Perhaps if the government shared their plans for how places like schools can be reopened safely, with minimal risk to staff and pupils, people would be more supportive?
Though really infection rates have to be shown to have come down significantly before any easing of measures can be considered and we don't seem to be there yet.

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 12:45 pm 
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I've noticed that the current state of affairs has, mercifully, caused some people in the media to revert to saying "in the future" as distinct from "going forward".


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 12:53 pm 
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Just a reminder, in case anybody has forgotten, that tomorrow isn't a bank holiday as the first Monday in May normally is - as its on Friday 8th instead.

(so this thread is in fact correctly titled)


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 1:01 pm 
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Quote:
The BBC has stood by its defence of a Panorama investigation exposing shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) among healthcare workers, after a formal complaint from the culture secretary.

Since the programme aired, a number of NHS workers who were interviewed for it were reported to be either longstanding members or supporters of the Labour party. (Politics Live, Guardian)


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 1:02 pm 
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So its not just membership, merely "supporting" a non-Tory party makes you suspect now?


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 2:56 pm 
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Good afternoon, everyone.


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 3:08 pm 
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Willow904 wrote:
By "everybody" I presume he means "a small minority of people", judging by this poll:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ssion=true
Quote:
The poll by Opinium, taken between Wednesday and Friday last week, found 17% of people think the conditions have been met to consider reopening schools, against 67% who say they have not been, and that they should stay closed.


Perhaps if the government shared their plans for how places like schools can be reopened safely, with minimal risk to staff and pupils, people would be more supportive?
Though really infection rates have to be shown to have come down significantly before any easing of measures can be considered and we don't seem to be there yet.


I would have thought that Head Teachers need to be convinced first. Without their support, parents won't entertain the idea.

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 3:40 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
So its not just membership, merely "supporting" a non-Tory party makes you suspect now?

Going Forward, maybe a signed affidavit of synpathy for , or ideally membership of a non-left wing party could be provided. :oops:


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 3:55 pm 
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Government Briefing with Michael Gove and Prof. Stephen Powis.

Where's the other bloke today?


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 4:09 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
Government Briefing with Michael Gove and Prof. Stephen Powis.

Where's the other bloke today?


Having a day off presumably?


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 4:11 pm 
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Coronavirus: work times could be staggered to help end lockdown, says Shapps

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ays-shapps
Quote:
He ruled out temperature checks for people using public transport, saying that if anyone had a temperature they should be at home and not travelling at all.

:?


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 4:30 pm 
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tinybgoat wrote:
Coronavirus: work times could be staggered to help end lockdown, says Shapps

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ays-shapps
Quote:
He ruled out temperature checks for people using public transport, saying that if anyone had a temperature they should be at home and not travelling at all.

:?
Nations successfully preventing the spread of COVID-19 use temperature checks, Shapps. Think about that. Shapps. Think.


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 4:41 pm 
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I've made a big rhubarb raspberry blueberry port crumble
help yourselves


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 4:56 pm 
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citizenJA wrote:
tinybgoat wrote:
Coronavirus: work times could be staggered to help end lockdown, says Shapps

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ays-shapps
Quote:
He ruled out temperature checks for people using public transport, saying that if anyone had a temperature they should be at home and not travelling at all.

:?
Nations successfully preventing the spread of COVID-19 use temperature checks, Shapps. Think about that. Shapps. Think.

Beyond him.
They do seem to be totally oblivious to what's going on elsewhere.
How do you even know if your temperature is slightly elevated?

Much the same with masks, the point surely is that you might have the virus without any symptoms at all and a mask stops you passing it on.

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 5:00 pm 
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Speaking of Shapps, has everyone seen this clip from Ridge?

https://twitter.com/marcusjdl/status/12 ... 0030526464

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 5:50 pm 
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gilsey wrote:
Speaking of Shapps, has everyone seen this clip from Ridge?

https://twitter.com/marcusjdl/status/12 ... 0030526464


Don't have Twitter & can't get it to play on my phone, just get a spinning circle, maybe it's like an auto censoring potter's wheel,

Also saw in Guardian report on Andrew Marr,

Quote:
Shapps added the UK may have had a high death rate compared to some other countries because of “density of population”. He said Britain has “denser cities” compared to other countries and the number of deaths are high because the figures are a “product of excellent statisticians counting in a way that other countries don’t”.


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 5:58 pm 
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Oh dear,
Twitter link worked in different browser,
truly awful.


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 8:36 pm 
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A friend earlier was telling me about when he used to live with an alcoholic painter and decorator. Apparently this guy would turn up for a job, do a tiny bit of work, then leave his brushes there and go and get pissed in the nearest pub. When the unhappy client rang him he would claim he'd had to go and get supplies, paint or plaster or whatever, and point to the fact that his tools were there and a tiny bit of work had been done as evidence that the job would eventually be finished.

I asked him if the guy's name was Matt Hancock.


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 9:06 pm 
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tinybgoat wrote:
gilsey wrote:
Speaking of Shapps, has everyone seen this clip from Ridge?

https://twitter.com/marcusjdl/status/12 ... 0030526464


Don't have Twitter & can't get it to play on my phone, just get a spinning circle, maybe it's like an auto censoring potter's wheel,

Also saw in Guardian report on Andrew Marr,

Quote:
Shapps added the UK may have had a high death rate compared to some other countries because of “density of population”. He said Britain has “denser cities” compared to other countries and the number of deaths are high because the figures are a “product of excellent statisticians counting in a way that other countries don’t”.


I repeat myself from the other day,I know,but the interesting comparison I think is with South Korea. Population 10-15million smaller but quite a bit more densely populated. One infection to every 20 here, one death to every 100 here (ish). 'Densely Populated' always sounds to me a bit like 'but some of my best friends are...'

Also - 'counting in a way that other counties don't'- yeah, by avoiding counting obvious cases. One of the reasons that Belgium's per capita death rate is so high is that they decided to include every care home death in the count.

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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 9:23 pm 
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Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:13 pm 
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I trust everyone's already seen the study in The Lancet that show's the model the government used for their initial testing, tracking and tracing, then subsequent abandoning of it, was fatally flawed.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30219-9/fulltext

The model was based on the assumption that tests would take between 3·83 days (short) and 8·09 days (long)—on the basis of data from the SARS-CoV epidemic, so that was the delay factored in between people being symptomatic and being isolated.

Whereas in fact, by this time, several rapid tests with a turnaround time of less than 4 h had been developed internationally, with some having received relevant regulatory approvals.

And that, Using the authors' original code, we demonstrate that when the delay is changed to a median of 1 day, the model predicts the probability of controlling the epidemic within 12 weeks to be more than 80%.

So in essence we're in lockdown because of a flawed model used by the government at the very beginning that was created by members of Sage. Dr Joel Hellewell and Professor John Edmunds, who've both responded to the criticism by claiming that we didn't have the capacity and the cost would have been too high.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30217-5/fulltext

And this would be same Professor John Edmunds who appeared on CH4 news in early March advocating herd immunity.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0314/1123204-britain-coronavirus/

In a Channel 4 news special programme on the virus shown on Friday night, Professor John Edwards, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who also advises the British government, said there are two ways to deal with this virus.

Either stamp it out by curing every person in the whole world who is infected, which we are no longer able to do, or managing the spread of the virus until herd immunity is reached. When challenged about a potentially large death toll, he said "there is no way out of this".


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:36 pm 
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Unpleasantly disturbing but very good, I think.



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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:46 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:49 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:51 pm 
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I need subtitles for Jeffrey Lewis, I liked the song but kept losing track of the narrative, this may be a problem at my end.


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PostPosted: Sun 03 May, 2020 10:57 pm 
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Sky'sGoneOut wrote:
I need subtitles for Jeffrey Lewis, I liked the song but kept losing track of the narrative, this may be a problem at my end.


The lyrics are available on youtube but, unfortunately, they come without the music (so far as I can discover).


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