FlyTheNest

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 6:46 am**

Morning all.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 10:36 am**

Good morning.

IPPR
Who wins and who pays? Rentier power and the Covid crisis

the crisis will exacerbate inequalities between the working poor and the asset-owning wealthy

There's a surprise.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 10:51 am**

Alastair McLellan
@HSJEditor
Level 1:
BREAKING: The results for all national Covid testing has gone missing

Test data from commercial labs going into ‘black hole’

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 11:13 am**

This is amazing.

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Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 11:14 am**

Always good to see howsilly's contributions here.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 11:31 am**

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Always good to see howsilly's contributions here.

Thankyou AK

I know I am a bit non-regular and sometimes go on a bit of a rant but I hope that it sparks some debate

Still missing Mr H as well....used to come just to read his musings....I am sure he would have provided some unique insight into this

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 12:27 pm**

I think Simon Wren-Lewis is about as clear on the difficulties that Covid-19 presents and on the only real practical solutions as anyone else I have read as he doesn't make the mistake of thinking there's a straightforward choice between the economy and lockdown. With the exponential growth of a novel, unchecked virus, the numbers of people getting ill and the numbers of people choosing to stay home, the economy is going to take a massive hit even if you don't go into an officially mandated lockdown. The point of lockdown, therefore, is to use the pause to get infection rates down to manageable levels and put in place measures that can control the spread going forward and so far the only successful method employed to do that has been the intensive test, track and trace method used in countries such as South Korea which learned these lessons from the SARS outbreak. People will not go out and spend money in the economy until they feel safe and the only way that will happen is if they are confident the government knows where outbreaks are and are responding to them. Instead we have the mess of outsourced testing gilsey linked above, with no usable data - a pointless waste of resources - and GPs complaining they can't get people tested - another resource not being used effectively. Once again our government is arsing about worrying about image while the substance is nowhere to be seen. This is an excellent article from Wren-Lewis and I only wish the government would follow his advice:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rus-deaths" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We can't restart Britain's economy until we get coronavirus under control

We won't get this though. What we'll get is poor people starved back to work in order to deliver parcels to better off home workers and the vulnerable will be trapped in a isolation nightmare for a long time to come.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 12:34 pm**

Well the government has already been forced to backtrack on cutting furlough payments, so putting pressure on them can get results.

Its the aftermath of the immediate crisis when they will be really exposed.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:33 pm**

Wren-Lewis does a good job there - what we need to try and does what has been the focus on the continent which is to get the cases down to a low enough level so a track, trace and isolate protocol can be used to maintain a control at an acceptable level. The track and trace bit is already a well-known protocol and must be done locally as we do with notifiable diseases (resources been hammered though) and, as I said yesterday, we could have volunteers doing this after training and with supervision of skilled and experienced staff.....not ideal but I think it would make a difference.

Here we have gone from 1500 cases a day to <50 consistently now with deaths <10. This has also been on the back of a lot of testing.

My concern though about the UK in particular (and a lot of this is on the hands of the incompetents in charge) is the lack of clarity where we need to get to. I would have suggested a tough lockdown à la France is needed until the end of the month at least followed by relaxation using other countries as a guide to what/what not to do.

We have this week most schools, all shops, all public transport, all hairdressers, some restaurants open with borders between us and the neighbours opening up gradually.

The data we are getting from this coupled with testing and the low case numbers will allow us to get back to some sort of normality over the next few weeks and also identify where the real hotspots of transmission are - at the moment everyone has been using modelling on early, conservative assumptions (susceptibility, transmission etc) and we should now be able to understand these more discreetly

The virus seems to have been around longer than we originally though so we may already have seen some aspects of the 2nd wave in the last month or two as we do not know what the starting point was in terms of infections when we started the lockdowns.

The word I worry about the most is 'safe' though as this has no meaning - it is subjective and is impossible to meet...my safe is fidderent from someone else's.

I have said this before and will say it again that we need to look at this on a societal level and what the acceptable case load would be and if it goes above that (eg Germany's 50 cases/100000 over a week in a region) then we react. Just saying things like 'we will not reopen schools until it is safe to do so' needs more definition in real meaningful terms so we can help to manage the communication.

I absolutely and without equivocation blame the Gment but there also needs to be a measured response from the 'goodies' such as the Unions to allow us to move on from this kind of lockdown to a better, more focused one that will allow people to get out and be a society again, which must surely be desirable. Let us not allow despair at the Gment prevent us from putting up some proposals looking at other countries as a guide

There is a risk in the summer that the UK is still pissing about with semi-lockdown and more polarised and non-productive rhetoric whilst the continent is moving to the new normal and getting on with it!

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:34 pm**

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well the government has already been forced to backtrack on cutting furlough payments, so putting pressure on them can get results.

Its the aftermath of the immediate crisis when they will be really exposed.

I never really understood the reasoning behind portraying workers as 'relying on furlough rather than returning to work' when it was very clearly a case of people being furloughed to avoid mass redundancies. A cost that would have still fallen heavily on the government with the added costs to employers and the economy more generally. It's like they forgot why they did it in the first place. And why they have to tackle the virus properly with track and trace to reassure the public that it's safe to go and spend money again and thus create the work for those on furlough to go back to. Given part of the economy is driven by pensioners and the people working from home, as long as they choose to bunker down, a lot of jobs will remain redundant and you can't just force people with choices about when and how to spend money to go back to normal. They will only be persuaded by low infection rates and low numbers of deaths. Government and their wealthy backers may not have as many choices about how to proceed as they think, mostly thanks to the likes of the ONS that ensure they can't cheat and lie their way out of lockdown.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:35 pm**

Starmer again dominating Johnson at today's PMQ. No wonder JRM allegedly wants the braying Tory thugs to be allowed to return

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:47 pm**

'Furloughing' is well known here (and in France/Germany too). It is called 'chômage technique' here

There are two main reasons;

firstly, it keeps employees linked to employer during temporary downturns and allows the rapid retooling afterwards. On my site a couple of companies have used it to tide over difficult times.

It is not abused as far as I can see as it has a benefit for both the employer and employee

secondly, as to why the state does is mainly linked to unemployment benefit rates. Here we get 70-80% of salary for 2 years (up to CHF150000 pa). The state has no real incentive to allow people to go on the dole as it costs them as much, if not more, to do so and has consequential social problems.

The UK with its very low unemployment benefits gives no incentive to Gment to keep people either working or linked to their employer - also the culture here is not to abuse that from either side, in UK I imagine not a few firms would use it to their own ends.

Bloody communist state I live in!

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:51 pm**

Yes, paragraph headline from the G, I think we'll see more of this one.

Guidance shows Starmer right and PM wrong

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:54 pm**

@howsillyofme

My concern though about the UK in particular (and a lot of this is on the hands of the incompetents in charge) is the lack of clarity where we need to get to. I would have suggested a tough lockdown à la France is needed until the end of the month at least followed by relaxation using other countries as a guide to what/what not to do.

Absolutely. Unfortunately Johnson is determined to give out 'getting back to normal signals' even as the infection rate in the North East is climbing. And instead of working with public transport providers to create some clear rules for social distancing or mask wearing on public transport he's washed his hands of it entirely by telling people not to use it, ignoring the fact that's not an option for many. Has any other government acted this way?

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:55 pm**

howsillyofme1 wrote: Let us not allow despair at the Gment prevent us from putting up some proposals looking at other countries as a guide

There is a risk in the summer that the UK is still pissing about with semi-lockdown and more polarised and non-productive rhetoric whilst the continent is moving to the new normal and getting on with it!

We don't even need to look at other countries, we've our own alternative scientists with plenty of good advice.

https://twitter.com/IndependentSage" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.independentsage.org/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm pretty sure your prediction for the summer will come to pass.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 1:57 pm**

Willow904 wrote: It's like they forgot why they did it in the first place.

Yes.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 2:01 pm**

This is from Independent Sage's first report.

The government should refocus its ambition on ensuring sufficient public health and health system capacities to ensure that we can identify, isolate, test and treat all cases, and to trace and quarantine contacts. Quarantine should be for 14 days and not seven. The government must develop a clear quarantine and messaging policy which takes account of the diversity of experiences of our population, variations in household structures, and with appropriate quarantine facilities in the community. This should be accompanied by real time high quality detailed data about the epidemic in each local authority and ward area.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 2:03 pm**

gilsey wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote: Let us not allow despair at the Gment prevent us from putting up some proposals looking at other countries as a guide

There is a risk in the summer that the UK is still pissing about with semi-lockdown and more polarised and non-productive rhetoric whilst the continent is moving to the new normal and getting on with it!
We don't even need to look at other countries, we've our own alternative scientists with plenty of good advice.

https://twitter.com/IndependentSage" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.independentsage.org/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm pretty sure your prediction for the summer will come to pass.

I assume they will be looking at what is happening elsewhere as that is the experimental work that will support/disprove the model!

I work with a lot of predictive models and we always need to get data to prove or disprove them - I once remember having a n argument with someone because I wanted to abandon a predictive model because it could not predict! Gave precise numbers but not very accurate!

I would like to see more of this independent scientific debate - this is what science is all about, although for the layman it can look like chaos it is where the way forward is found

What disturbs me most about Ferguson's model that is being commonly referred to is that the coding is not available for peer review and he himself has said it is not documented and sits in his head! If that is the case that is very, very poor on his behalf

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 2:03 pm**

Ian Austin - you are scum.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 2:05 pm**

howsillyofme1 wrote:'Furloughing' is well known here (and in France/Germany too). It is called 'chômage technique' here

There are two main reasons;

firstly, it keeps employees linked to employer during temporary downturns and allows the rapid retooling afterwards. On my site a couple of companies have used it to tide over difficult times.

It is not abused as far as I can see as it has a benefit for both the employer and employee

secondly, as to why the state does is mainly linked to unemployment benefit rates. Here we get 70-80% of salary for 2 years (up to CHF150000 pa). The state has no real incentive to allow people to go on the dole as it costs them as much, if not more, to do so and has consequential social problems.

The UK with its very low unemployment benefits gives no incentive to Gment to keep people either working or linked to their employer - also the culture here is not to abuse that from either side, in UK I imagine not a few firms would use it to their own ends.

Bloody communist state I live in!

Yes, quite a few people in the UK would be quite surprised how normal the concept is in many other countries. I agree in normal times there isn't as much incentive for a UK government to support furlough but in this case you are potentially talking about a few months at 80% wages versus several years on unemployment (plus housing benefit), the difference between recession and depression essentially.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 2:14 pm**

Being unemployed here is considered to be a 'job' - have to ask for holidays and permission just like from employer. The main focus is getting you back into work asap so have to show willing and also they send you on loads of courses to help improve skills.

If you still unemployed after 2 years then you move to a social aid fund which is far less generous and is not conducive to living in a high-cost country

One thing CV-19 has done here is highlight the number of undocumented workers who normally are supported under the radar by charities or their communities but not need social assistance. Caused quite a bit of thinking in some areas (like Vaud where I live) but has also brought the racist slime up from the depths too!

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 4:37 pm**

Willow904 wrote: And instead of working with public transport providers to create some clear rules for social distancing or mask wearing on public transport he's washed his hands of it entirely by telling people not to use it, ignoring the fact that's not an option for many. Has any other government acted this way?

I actually naively thought that social distancing would be enforced on public transport so buses and trains would only be allowed a set number of passengers on board depending upon their capacity.

Instead as you say they've essentially said 'fuck it' while shifting the responsibility to commuters who have little other choice allowing the wholly inevitable to occur. It's staggering. We still have more than double the number of new infections than any other country in Europe and people are being jammed together on buses and trains. What exactly do they think is going to happen? This isn't a 'baby step' it's a desperate Trumpian act. They're seeing other European countries beginning to open up their economies and are desperate not to be left behind despite, due to their utter incompetence, this country being miles behind in controlling the virus.

And what happens when the second spike they are making inevitable happens? It's pretty evident a lot of people have become complacent thinking this is now just a problem in care homes and hospitals, but when it's demonstrated that jamming people together like sardines leads to new infections what then? Do they keep bouncing us up and down on their stupid Coronavirus Def-Con meter playing lockdown Hockey Cokey?

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:00 pm**

I think bus and train companies were hoping for or even expecting some specific rules on capacity and masks as more people start travelling again. They could introduce measures unilaterally, but without government direction it would be virtually impossible for them to enforce them. They and their customers have been abandoned by this government and it really is a disgrace.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:08 pm**

I'm yet to hear from my work about whether they are going to demand my attendance on rota next week - NEU advice is staff with long public transport journeys should not be put on rota to cover key worker and vulnerable children. I have, for the first time in 20 years at the same place, been looking around for the prospects of work closer to home. If I have to get the train, I'm then going to have to isolate from the rest of my household which is more or less impossible. Do you think they might find a way to furlough me?

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:09 pm**

To be honest what I think will happen is they will say 'stay off the rota for the moment and we'll see how things go as more students come back' and then we'll be back under a much tighter lockdown anyway.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:09 pm**

Boris Johnson looks increasingly like the prime minister of England alone

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus

Don't want to toot my own horn or anything...oh who am I kidding toot toot...but that's what I said on Sunday, I've never seen a British Prime Minister look so utterly diminished. And it's obvious it's something he's aware of himself. Whenever an SNP, Plaid or Labour MP pointed out to him on Monday that he was only speaking for England you could see how much it rankled.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:11 pm**

Meanwhile...

The government has privately conceded there will be checks on goods crossing the Irish sea post Brexit, months after Boris Johnson insisted there would be no such trade barriers.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:21 pm**

Jenrick is now going through the daily slides.

This slide set out what is and isn’t allowed (in England, although Jenrick does not say that. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:33 pm**

Willow904 wrote:I think bus and train companies were hoping for or even expecting some specific rules on capacity and masks as more people start travelling again. They could introduce measures unilaterally, but without government direction it would be virtually impossible for them to enforce them. They and their customers have been abandoned by this government and it really is a disgrace.

Reduced capacity would, presumably, require more vehicles which would be running at a loss. I think the government has gone back to penny-pinching mode - it's only the workers, after all.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 5:53 pm**

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:Boris Johnson looks increasingly like the prime minister of England alone

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus

Don't want to toot my own horn or anything...oh who am I kidding toot toot...but that's what I said on Sunday, I've never seen a British Prime Minister look so utterly diminished. And it's obvious it's something he's aware of himself. Whenever an SNP, Plaid or Labour MP pointed out to him on Monday that he was only speaking for England you could see how much it rankled.

And arguably not even all of England, given how many of the "big city mayors" seem to be increasingly ignoring him.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 7:44 pm**

adam wrote:I'm yet to hear from my work about whether they are going to demand my attendance on rota next week - NEU advice is staff with long public transport journeys should not be put on rota to cover key worker and vulnerable children. I have, for the first time in 20 years at the same place, been looking around for the prospects of work closer to home. If I have to get the train, I'm then going to have to isolate from the rest of my household which is more or less impossible. Do you think they might find a way to furlough me?

The ongoing muddle and uncertainty is really stressful, isn't it. Lots of children and children's parents will be on the moderately vulnerable but not high risk shielding list and will be currently wondering, like you, what to do for the best. I've just had an e-mail from the kid's school saying they've prepared for re-opening on June 1st if necessary and won't be providing any online learning for the years going back unless the child is shielding. Does that mean just children who have had the high risk letter? Do those with shielding parents or children at moderate risk have to choose between risking health or missing education? People will be worrying over these details because Johnson trailed a possible June return for schools with so little detail, yet it might not even happen. I'm so angry about it and it doesn't even affect me! My son is year 11 and finished until September and my daughter has been learning online with the hospital school since November. They are both in moderate risk groups, though, so I'm very sensitive about the cavalier 'get the kids back to school' approach. I hope you can sort something so you don't have to risk your family's health. It's wrong people are being put in these positions. If we could be confident the government had a plan to quickly identify and isolate new cases, things would be so different, but instead we have a litany of cluelessness.

As can be seen here in this twitter thread:

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And read here in this article:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/en ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gavin Williamson’s Scientific Adviser Says He Didn't Make Assessment Of School Reopening Plans

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 8:23 pm**

howsillyofme1 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Always good to see howsilly's contributions here.
Thankyou AK

I know I am a bit non-regular and sometimes go on a bit of a rant but I hope that it sparks some debate

Still missing Mr H as well....used to come just to read his musings....I am sure he would have provided some unique insight into this

My current circumstances make it difficult for me to do justice to your posts. Please know I'm glad you're contributing.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 8:44 pm**

Good evening, everyone.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 8:52 pm**

I know that by now this is just one more thing, but still...

The government stopped issuing guidance at the border to arrivals from specific countries – including from Italy and China – to self-isolate on 13 March, 10 days before the lockdown was imposed. Since then, there has been little intervention other than advice provided on leaflets and posters. Arrivals will have been subjected to the same lockdown restrictions imposed on the wider population since 23 March. Previously people were asked to self-isolate at the border for 14 days. Inexplicably when other countries were increasing their restrictions or their requirements to self-isolate, the UK lifted them all

From this story - 95,000 have entered UK from abroad during coronavirus lockdown

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 8:59 pm**

Also @Willow - thank you. I had 'my conversation' with the school two days ago and haven't heard anything yet - at the moment I am officially expected in on Tuesday afternoon so I can be there for 3 hours to be part of a team of about 10 supervising something like 20 kids. If I have to go in, I will then have to self-isolate from the rest of my family in a house that is a nice house, don't get me wrong, but doesn't have a spare bedroom, or bathroom, or (obviously) kitchen. It's annoying - it's lots of things but it's also just annoying - because this seems so likely to be just a short term thing because it's so overwhelmingly likely that infection numbers will start to rise again quickly now and any idea of resuming school more 'comprehensively' (as it were) will just get put off.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 9:34 pm**

What makes it worse for teachers is that if last night's Newsnight is anything to go by any who worry about their own safety will be shouted down by the right screaming 'won't somebody think of the children?'

My brother was asked to go in yesterday to supervise some kids for the first time since the lockdown began and refused citing Union concerns, but young teachers, many of whom aren't in a union are much easier to bully, cajole and guilt trip into doing something they know could potentially kill them.

Children may not suffer the symptoms of Coronavirus but according to a German study I saw they can sure as hell catch and spread it and while obviously their education is hugely important we all know what's more of a concern to the Tories is opening schools to get their parents back to work.

So Adam, you have my sympathies.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 10:17 pm**

And right now on BBC News, a report on a "new" virus-related condition that *can* badly affect kids.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 10:17 pm**

Having read through a few articles it seems the strongest argument against kids transmitting the virus is that they're asymptomatic so aren't coughing or sneezing. But that makes no sense as we know asymptomatic adults can spread it so why not children? Could it be their rate of infection is lower than adults? Well no...

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 ... o-covid-19

“At the beginning of the pandemic, it was thought that children are not getting infected with the coronavirus, but now it is clear that the amount of infection in children is the same as in adults,” explains Andrew Pollard, professor of paediatric infection and immunity at the University of Oxford.

And.

Graham Roberts, an honorary consultant paediatrician at the University of Southampton, explains...“Many think that children are at low risk and we don’t need to worry about them, and yes, that is true for children who don’t have chronic medical conditions like immunodeficiencies. What people are forgetting is that children are probably one of the main routes by which this infection is going to spread throughout the community.”

So why is this being played down and brought into question? Our own Dr Jenny Harries was doing it today.

As far as I can see there's absolutely no current evidence that children aren't every bit as capable of spreading coronavirus as an asymptomatic adult, just vague hand wavy guesses to the contrary.

If we truly were being 'led by the science' there's not a chance schools should be opening until after the summer at the earliest giving time for those who claim it will be safe to present their evidence and allay teacher's justified fears.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 10:59 pm**

There's also this, building on the cases reported here:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The New York Times@nytimes
New York State health officials are investigating 102 cases of a rare and dangerous inflammatory syndrome that afflicts children and appears to be connected to the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Wednesday https://nyti.ms/2Lsr8Wu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

60% tested positive for Covid-19, 40% appeared to have antibodies from previous infection and we have no idea how long after initial infection this inflammatory syndrome can strike. It could be a ticking time bomb. It's unfathomable to me how anyone could think sitting back and letting anyone get this is acceptable when we have no clue what the long term effects of exposure may be.

Posted: **Wed 13 May, 2020 11:09 pm**

Willow904 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/imajsaclaima ... 6586836992

Instead of reading my waffle just watch Willow's link.

So even the Dept for Education's chief scientific adviser agrees that children can infect others and the evidence that they are less infectious than adults is 'weak'.

Edited: Screwed up the link.

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 12:02 am**

Willow904 wrote:It's unfathomable to me how anyone could think sitting back and letting anyone get this is acceptable when we have no clue what the long term effects of exposure may be.

As I said above we're entering Trump territory, reopening an economy when it's perfectly clear to anyone of a sound mind that we're nowhere near ready to do it.

And let's look at some of the long term effects we know about. The Tories and their acolytes like to pretend all that matters to those under 50 is a 1% death rate, but Coronavirus causes hypoxia which irreversibly damages organs, so those who don't die can be facing permanent debilitating conditions. Woo Hoo I didn't die! But my kidney's are fucked so I'll be on dialysis for the rest of my life.

Even if you do simply take the 1% death rate, that's at least one person on every single bus they jam full of people that's going to die prematurely.

It's crazy but not unfathomable, I know I keep mentioning Johnson saying his hero was the Mayor from Jaws but he did actually say that in all seriousness. That's the attitude driving him and his goons, 'who cares if a giant shark is eating people alive were going to stay open for business', he said essentially the same thing in February during his 'take it on the chin' speech using Superman as his simile. Although I don't remember Superman ever deliberately letting millions of people contract a disease for his own profit.

And finally at least Trump's scientific advisors have the good grace to look pained and occasionaly contradict his lunacy.

Not a lot of that going on this side of the pond.

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 12:03 am**

Good night, everyone,
love,
cJA

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 12:27 am**

Night CJA, it was good to see you up and about.

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 12:37 am**

[youtube]MkD_kYkRk3c[/youtube]

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 12:49 am**

[youtube]RbmS3tQJ7Os[/youtube]

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 12:54 am**

I might return to that later.

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 1:05 am**

[youtube]CWPo5SC3zik[/youtube]

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 1:09 am**

Oops.

Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 1:11 am**

Take two -

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Posted: **Thu 14 May, 2020 1:12 am**

[youtube]9ZEURntrQOg[/youtube]

FlyTheNest

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