FlyTheNest

Morning all.

Good morefternoon - if there is anybody there!

Morning. Along with dentists, bus operators haven't yet had any directions from the government about how to implement new guidelines, in their case use of masks on public transport. Even if the government prefers to announce changes to the public first, is it really too much to ask they have the new guidance immediately available to those expected to implement it? Vets seem to have escaped the fate of being dumped in it with a dramatic public announcement with no warning as happened with dentists. If only other professions could have been treated with the same respect and been informed first before the public, a lot of stress and chaos could been avoided.

But when virtually your only concern is getting a headline for the next day's papers, stuff like that will always just be seen as collateral damage.

Afternoon all.

Tom Mills
@ta_mills
New BBC Director General Tim Davie: private school, Cambridge, corporate sector (marketing at Pepsi). Background is purely commercial. No experience in journalism.

and then...

Tom Mills
@ta_mills
Turns out he was also Deputy Chair of the Hammersmith & Fulham Conservative Party in the 1990s (ht
@TheProleStar
I think for digging this up). Source: https://campaignlive.co.uk/article/mark ... ptic/63789" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good afternoon, everyone.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:But when virtually your only concern is getting a headline for the next day's papers, stuff like that will always just be seen as collateral damage.

Yes, that's it.
Propaganda has long been part of the human experience but technological and psychological sophistication is are greater now.

RogerOThornhill wrote:Afternoon all.

Tom Mills
@ta_mills
New BBC Director General Tim Davie: private school, Cambridge, corporate sector (marketing at Pepsi). Background is purely commercial. No experience in journalism.

and then...

Tom Mills
@ta_mills
Turns out he was also Deputy Chair of the Hammersmith & Fulham Conservative Party in the 1990s (ht
@TheProleStar
I think for digging this up). Source: https://campaignlive.co.uk/article/mark ... ptic/63789" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Par for the course then, the only consolation is that they could easily have picked worse.

What's so special about 15th June? Why so many new changes? Why the change of heart on face masks? Where'd the health and science experts go? How can the government be so sure R is still under 1 in NW & SW when it's not an exact science and all the evidence pointing to it being 1?

And other questions unanswered by Matt Hancock today.

The questions Matt Hancock did manage to answer simply added to the general confusion:

Q. Is the infrastructure in place to enact a local lockdown should one happen tomorrow?

Hancock says yes, as in Weston-super-Mare.

So "local lockdown" appears to entail closing A&E due to being overwhelmed and delaying re-opening primary schools for one week and.....and nothing. That's it.

Government's idea of infrastructure preparedness is closing down an overwhelmed hospital.
Nothing more.

Willow904 wrote:What's so special about 15th June? Why so many new changes? Why the change of heart on face masks? Where'd the health and science experts go? How can the government be so sure R is still under 1 in NW & SW when it's not an exact science and all the evidence pointing to it being 1?

And other questions unanswered by Matt Hancock today.

I've been wondering the same since Shapps's appearance yesterday. I've not been able to find any meaningful answers to those questions.

re: flythenest sanctuary application(s)
I think we UK-based nesters should expedient flitting procedures
where to, people?

I'm not going anywhere, this is my country as well as theirs.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I'm not going anywhere, this is my country as well as theirs.

I agree with you. I was panicking. I'm a little better now.

Hi all

Hope all are well and don't mind me popping by

I have the fortune to live in a country that is starting to normalise. Daily cases are stabilising around 10-20 and deaths at around 5ish a week and have been pretty much since the end of April

Schools are open as are hairdressers, shops, restaurants and bars and this weekend we move to gatherings of 300 people being allowed. People are still cautious but clearly that is changing and we are starting to see a 'new normal'

The lockdown here was actually relatively slack compared to our neighbours in Italy and France, possibly similar to Germany. We also made some mistakes in testing etc at the beginning but now have quite a robust testing regime and a track & trace process has been set up.

All borders to EU countries reopening on 15 June, including UK although it seems that is not being reciprocated with the rather inexplicable and strange 'Patel Quarantine'.

The epidemiological story here is interesting and I am sure we will see the assumptions being adapted as we look at the data around transmission etc - much is yet unknown and many pronouncements about this will be proven wrong in the future - the biggest error I think is that we still talk of this as a 'flu' - not so much in its morbidity but in its behaviour as an epidemic and if I see this 'deadly second wave' comment based on the Spanish flu I think I will scream.

There are still tests to come - will we see sustained increases in community cases in countries like here (I think there is more evidence of hotspots and super spreaders having a big part to play in transmission) and then will there be a seasonal affect that hit the the seasonal flu season. My view on the latter is that we will still be vulnerable to CV but we should be prepared for mass vaccination against a (probably) preventable flu perhaps coupled with some well managed shielding of the at risk as necessary.

And then we come to R - the focus on a number that has a large margin of error I find quite bemusing and the quotation of precise but pretty inaccurate numbers for it seems to be continuing. The British did not manage the caseload at all well (awful Government) and the growth rate seems to be relatively stable with perhaps a slow decline. This is probably not dissimilar to where we are here but when you have a stable situation at 5 deaths a week it is different from when you have 2000 a week. It seems that the British Government is now working on a policy of accepting 1000-2000 deaths a week (possibly will end up being less over time but that is difficult to say)

And a final comment on Sweden - I think the Swedish get a bad press to be honest. They made a mess of the care home situation as have many and also protecting courting vulnerable ethnic groups (the Swedish dabbling in neoliberalism recently may be a contribution to that). Their assumptions though have been clear and actually very pessimistic. If you listen to their reasoning they think that this disease will run through the population and most will be infected and that a vaccine is a long way off. The view I have seen from then that based on that assumption is that an oscillating wave of peaks and troughs with lockdowns is unsustainable and will be more damaging than their steady one. Their approach looks poor now but if there is a resurgence of the virus in other countries with another peak and then another lockdown etc then it may prove to be the 'best' approach. The UK seems to have now decided on the same thing (if there is any conscious thought that is which is another big assumption) but having had a crappy lockdown as well so getting the worst of both worlds as I see it.

I hope that the pessimistic view of the Swedish epidemiologists is wrong and that the approach favoured in central Europe of hard lockdown followed by managed reopening is the right one - only time will tell and it is too soon to say whose assumptions were correct. The clear message for me though is that certain countries had no real strategy and have messed it up - USA, UK and Brazil spring to mind as examples

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA