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 Post subject: Friday 19th June 2020
PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 5:57 am 
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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 7:48 am 
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Morning all.

Quote:
Dave Hill
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5m
Not exactly breaking news, but I really cannot move for people in and around London government, whatever their party leanings, who describe HM national government as utterly incompetent. It is quite astonishing.

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 8:46 am 
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Quite.


Quote:
Paul Johnson
@paul__johnson
The App

Huge enthusiasm for our centralised app. By mid-May
-Matt Hancock

What about privacy, data, poor take up?

It'll be ready end May
-Hancock

It'll be ready June
-Hancock

It's not a priority
-Govt

May be ready winter
-Health Minister 17 June

It's ditched
-18 June
2:02 PM · Jun 18, 2020·Twitter Web App

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 9:16 am 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
Morning all.

Quote:
Dave Hill
@DaveHill
·
5m
Not exactly breaking news, but I really cannot move for people in and around London government, whatever their party leanings, who describe HM national government as utterly incompetent. It is quite astonishing.

What did they think would happen?

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 9:16 am 
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Rhetorical question, ftaod.

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 11:06 am 
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Spam alert, mods.


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 11:11 am 
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Good one on the culture war and how NOT to be trapped into joining it --
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... servatives

She wrote another good one earlier this month
Quote:
What’s frightening is that relaxing lockdown safely relies on an unusual willingness to acknowledge mistakes quickly. Each step back towards normality is an experiment, since we’ve never done anything like this before; ministers must be vigilant for signs they’ve overdone it, and willing to retreat fast if necessary.

Mistakes will inevitably be made in fighting a novel virus when everyone is learning as they go. But success may depend on being big enough to admit it.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-mistakes


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 11:30 am 
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That report on Labour's defeat last December seems pretty sound in its essentials.

More evidence that Ed was always one of the good guys, and those in the party who ceaselessly worked against his leadership should be ashamed.


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 12:10 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Spam alert, mods.

Ta


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 12:56 pm 
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Quote:
Iain Martin
@iainmartin1
Anyone else quite depressed by the app scandal? When they originally announced it I thought "that'll go wrong" but banished the thought on the basis that there are smart officials in the system and someone must have known what they were doing. But no. It went badly wrong. Grim.
1:26 PM · Jun 19, 2020·Twitter for Android


Anyone else quite depressed by the fact that the narrative switches to blaming the officials away from politicians?

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 1:34 pm 
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Tbf that comes across as "I hoped that officials could counter the incompetence of politicians" rather than blaming them per se?


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 3:23 pm 
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Wow.


https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/ ... 2660451331

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BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics
The chief civil servant at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office will step down from his role "at the request" of Boris Johnson
#

They do seem to have mis-spelt "Dominic Cummings" though...

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 3:35 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
That report on Labour's defeat last December seems pretty sound in its essentials.

More evidence that Ed was always one of the good guys, and those in the party who ceaselessly worked against his leadership should be ashamed.
I miss the Ed Miliband Labour government


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 3:36 pm 
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Good afternoon, everyone.


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 3:37 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Tbf that comes across as "I hoped that officials could counter the incompetence of politicians" rather than blaming them per se?

Yes, that one yes, I agree with you


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 3:39 pm 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
Quote:
Iain Martin
@iainmartin1
Anyone else quite depressed by the app scandal? When they originally announced it I thought "that'll go wrong" but banished the thought on the basis that there are smart officials in the system and someone must have known what they were doing. But no. It went badly wrong. Grim.
1:26 PM · Jun 19, 2020·Twitter for Android


Anyone else quite depressed by the fact that the narrative switches to blaming the officials away from politicians?
(cJA emphasis)
Yes, I see it frequently.
I agree with AK about this specific case though I may be wrong.


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 3:42 pm 
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Yes, I can see the alternative reading of that one.

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 5:33 pm 
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LB 15.04 "" The DHSC also said in the 24-hour period up to 9am on Friday, 169,600 tests were carried out or dispatched, with 1,346 positive results. ""

And some of those 'dispatched' may never be seen again, plus of course there are those that ARE carried out and then the results are lost or the testees untracable ! :smack: :smack: :smack:


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 5:55 pm 
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Excellent news to end the week with!

Quote:
HuffPost UK
@HuffPostUK
·
1h
BREAKING: Katie Hopkins permanently banned from Twitter, social media firm confirms


An awful lot of the rabid right - e.g. Roger Helmer, Gerard Batten - have really not a single clue that private companies can do what they want and it has nothing to do with freedom of speech.

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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 6:39 pm 
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Quote:
Update from the UK Chief Medical Officers on the UK alert level

An update from the CMOs for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on the alert level in the UK.
Published 19 June 2020

The Joint Biosecurity Centre has recommended that the COVID-19 alert level should move from Level 4 (A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially) to Level 3 (A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation).

The CMOs for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have reviewed the evidence and agree with this recommendation to move to Level 3 across the UK.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/upda ... lert-level
(cJA bold)

We've no track & trace program, new infections and deaths are still alarmingly high and the entire UK is now at Level 3 instead of Level 4.
:shock:


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 6:59 pm 
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citizenJA wrote:
Quote:
Update from the UK Chief Medical Officers on the UK alert level
An update from the CMOs for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on the alert level in the UK.
Published 19 June 2020
The Joint Biosecurity Centre has recommended that the COVID-19 alert level should move from Level 4 (A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially) to Level 3 (A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation).
The CMOs for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have reviewed the evidence and agree with this recommendation to move to Level 3 across the UK.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/upda ... lert-level
(cJA bold)

We've no track & trace program, new infections and deaths are still alarmingly high and the entire UK is now at Level 3 instead of Level 4.
:shock:

Yep ! Looks like government has been delegated to (unelected) CMO's . Anything goes wrong and they are responsible ?


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 7:03 pm 
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Quote:
reproduction number (R) of coronavirus (COVID-19)
Last updated on Friday 19 June 2020.
---
Midlands
R number - 0.8-1.0

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Reproduction number 1 in the Midlands and still the UK alert rate went from level 4 to level 3 today


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 7:11 pm 
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frog222 wrote:
---
Yep ! Looks like government has been delegated to (unelected) CMO's . Anything goes wrong and they are responsible ?
(cJA edit)
Who makes up the Joint Biosecurity Centre? The one recommending the COVID-19 alert level should move from Level 4.


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 7:16 pm 
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Quote:
Nearly 1,500 deaths in one day: UK ministers accused of downplaying Covid-19 peak
Official toll passed a thousand on 22 consecutive days – far more than daily briefings said
Quote:
Ministers have been accused of playing down the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic after it emerged that more than 1,000 people died every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days – in stark contrast with daily tolls announced by the government.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/19/over-1000-deaths-day-uk-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak
apologies if we've already had this


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 7:19 pm 
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Evening all

Looking at the dat it is reasonable to be at Lvl 3 in the UK - cases are still dropping albeit very slowly.

Please also don't get overly focused on track and trace - we don't have it here either to be honest. Still pretty weak and app not yet released here either and indications that it won't be as downloaded as it would have been

No extensive track and trace, no app yet
Schools back - no social distancing of kids for over a month. Wife took 8 white-water rafting yesterday
Non-essential shops back for over a month
Masks not compulsory anywhere and actually relatively uncommon
restaurants and bars open - pretty busy, some distancing
Events of up to 1000 people allowed from Monday
Public transport quieter than before
Geneva flights to Europe getting more frequent and all borders open now

To be honest social distancing is done but with no great enforcement and if you didn't know the last 3 months had happened there is not a lot different to before.

The cases have been bouncing at 10-30 and deaths at around 5 a week, hospitalisations dropping steadily - stayed relatively stable during all the relaxations. No sign of any increase in cases although it is easier to jump on things with numbers so low - outbreaks are easier to spot.

We would be at Lvl 2 on the UK scale

There is no guarantee that this will stay the same but the data is pretty clear that the measures taken so far have not led to the predicted 'deadly 2nd wave'. There are still worries that over summer we will see more cases as people's behaviour gets more lax and people go on holiday but I am going to stick my neck out and say that it is unlikely that we will see full lockdown again due to the increased contact. Possibly local ones may be needed. There is always the seasonal effect that will be a concern with regards to the winter flu season

From over here it seems the biggest issue is that many in the UK have no confidence in the Government and its ability to actually deliver anything competently. The indications from continental Europe are that with a competent Government things can be managed


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 7:34 pm 
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A full second wave of the virus is unlikely (though always possible) but it is entirely possible other countries manage to fully suppress it quicker than the UK.

Which would tell its own story.


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 7:50 pm 
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AK

Yes other countries have suppressed it more quickly and that makes a big difference - the risk of rapid suppression is the prevalence of the 'S' in the SEIR model if it does hit again but, as you say, that has thankfully not come to fruition.

The Swedes are a big loser from that as well because their strategy was based on there being no way to prevent further community infection outside a lockdown - I always saw that as being pessimistic and hoped it was wrong but there was no guarantee it was. Sweden never followed 'herd' immunity as such - they were just very pessimistic about future infection and vaccine availability

UKG were just rubbish and couldn't ever really explain their strategy


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 9:19 pm 
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Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA


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PostPosted: Fri 19 Jun, 2020 11:33 pm 
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