FlyTheNest

Morning all.

Away from coronavirus, Liam Fox will take his talents to the World Trade Organisation, where he will set out his credentials for the job of the organisation’s director general before giving a press conference at 130pm. (Politics Live, Guardian)

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Apparently the ITV 'journalist' doorstepping Jeremy Corbyn yesterday was Fred Dimbleby, son of David.

Morning all.

Job done then according to No 10 - shifted the Russia report to Corbyn and I'm sure there will be something to announce to move the report off the front pages when it comes out.

gilsey wrote:Apparently the ITV 'journalist' doorstepping Jeremy Corbyn yesterday was Fred Dimbleby, son of David.

I'm sure he got that job purely on the basis of merit?

Good morfternoon.

Both Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty have cast doubt on the prime minister’s plan of a November return to normality, by making it clear they think social distancing should remain in place for some time. Both advisers warned there was a high risk of a second wave this winter and suggested some lockdown measures may have to be reimposed. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Where has cJA got to again? Not least because she helps keep this place going in "slow" periods.

So here it is, Merry Christmas, everbody's gonna die.

On the one hand we have the chief scientific and medical advisors to the government ringing alarm bells, while on the other we have a bloated, bullshit filled pustule telling everyone it's fine to get back on public transport and go back to work. Hmmm...which to believe. Because let's face it Vallance and Whitty haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, but then again they look like geniuses next to the pustule.

Personally I'd listen to Devi Sridhar and do what she says, if anyone has come out of this with an enhanced reputation it's her.

Whereas someone I wouldn't be listening to is Carl Heneghan, joint author of the blog criticising Public Health England's methodology when reporting deaths, despite Public Health England publishing said methodology in black and white for all to see. Which has led Chuckles Hancock to launch an enquiry into something which was never a secret and took 10 seconds to look up on his own government's website. So nothing to do with pandering to nutters in the right wing press and his party while shifting blame at all. Professor Heneghan has been all over the media during this epidemic, I've personally seen him on Newsnight and CH4 news and invariably he's talked absolute shit. From the very beginning he was talking down the seriousness of Covid 19, denied the need for a lockdown and last time I saw him spouting drivel he was claiming people washing their hands was the sole reason the infection rate had declined. Which is quite something given it's an airborne virus. And now he's helped spark an enquiry into something nobody has ever tried to hide or deny because he was trying to show the death rate in England is being exaggerated. When in point of fact anyone with half a brain can see that as someone has to have tested positive for PHE to declare them a Covid 19 death then their numbers are unquestionably going to be an understatement. Unless he believes only people who have test positive have had the disease and our excess deaths for the year so far of 65,000 was caused by evil fairies or something.

Anyway, it's far too soon to be looking into what's gone on before. It takes up too much valuable time and resources. Or so Boris Johnson keeps telling us. However, if this can be used against the Government's attitude to any examination of past actions then so be it. There's nothing incendiary to be found on this one however hard the Government tries. The numbers involved at this stage aren't of great magnitude, and if the Government didn't spot it before now (and I've got a feeling that it has been pointed out before) it hardly redounds to their own credit. Might as well get it over with and push for more urgent retrospectives that will actually impact on the living.

I mean, even Johnson must be aware of the unfortunate historical connotations of "it will all be over by Christmas" talk?

In reply to howsillyofme1 from yesterday.

Just wanted to get in early and thank Sky for the really nice message last week and to offer my apologies for throwing my toys out of the pram a bit.

Thanks but there was no need, you were responding to an especially drunken rant and I didn't blame you one bit.

On the substantive point about immune system I think we should be careful in just thinking of immunity as being linked to antibodies. It seems to be a very complex area and I have seen plenty of immunologists suggesting that just looking at antibody tests is superficial and that innate metabolic health, other immunity mechanisms etc are as or more important.

This is true, antibodies are a crude measure of immunity, and they are not our bodies sole line of defence, but as far as testing is concerned they're all we've got at present. Which cause problems with, for example, the idea of 'immunity passports' which would be based on antibody tests which, if the studies I mentioned are accurate, would be of dubious merit. But I'll repeat what I previously stated. Humans are subject to many Coronaviruses and not a single one of them produces permanent immunity after infection. So far SARS provides the longest lasting immunity at two years. Wishing Covid19 to be any different is magical thinking.

I would always suggest to people to look at the data we have now, especially compare what happened in March/April to now - some of the things I hear about the current 'surge' would make you think it is much worse. Two things to take into mind though is that the 'surge' is in cases and we have no idea of the evolution of the number of cases in the wider community if we accept a high percentage are asymptomatic - the testing regimes are hugely influential - and the real data not the predictions. In some countries the debate is hugely political.

Indeed, let's take the USA as the most absurdly political, what the data shows us unequivocally is what we already knew, that allowing people to go about their business relatively normally, congregating in bars and restaurants, not wearing masks, not adhering to social distancing rules, with a virus capable of an exponential rate of infection is insanity. The fact that Florida is now the epicentre of a global pandemic is obscene. Looking back to March/April a case could be made for major global transport hubs like New York and London being especially vulnerable but anything beyond that has been almost entirely preventable. Lockdown a week earlier in the UK would have saved tens of thousands of lives but our Prime Minister dithered because of his politics. Florida/Arizona/Georgia/Alabama all re-opened their economies too soon because of their politics. And what they all share in common is a laissez faire attitude to pretty much everything from economics to public services, that the market should be free and the state should be small. This has resulted in third world countries dealing with Covid 19 significantly more successfully than the UK, and the entire rest of the world dealing with it better than the U.S.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I mean, even Johnson must be aware of the unfortunate historical connotations of "it will all be over by Christmas" talk?

Indeed, I mean what kind of Classicist doesn't remember Julius Caesar died on Christmas day?

'Beware the ides of December' as our immortal bard said.

Well, its been nice to see some chat on here even if we've had to wait all day for it

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well, its been nice to see some chat on here even if we've had to wait all day for it

Yes it does seem to have been quiet today despite Porfavor's early morning musical antics.

Had I been made aware it was a musical free for all today things would have been different but instead I sat outside in my little garden and talked to insects.

And let me tell you they're hardly Peter Ustinov when it comes to repartee.

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Sky'sGoneOut wrote:
Yes it does seem to have been quiet today despite Porfavor's early morning musical antics.

Probably because of. People were too terrified to say anything in case it brought on some horrible musical consequence. I have absolutely no control over the horrors that might bubble up in my head.

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This is brilliant in every single way.

Unless some sick individual waits until their victim is quite evidently under the influence of various excess chemicals and just casually introduces it.

It took me days to recover.

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Portrait painted by a 14 year old mother in a trailer.

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Ah - found it.

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I like the centaur with a green tail.

As long as nobody tries to goad me into a sausage pricking debate everything should be fine.

I should hate this for so many reasons, one being Rod Stewart. Instead of which, I think it's great.

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Don't make me resort to the Teriyaki Pringles.

I've just switched on the TV. Bloody hell. Old footage of "Stay with Me" belting out. Well, it's belting out now since I've turned up the volume.

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:Don't make me resort to the Teriyaki Pringles.

Be more careful this time.

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Night night.