FlyTheNest

Morning all. Labour lead at 3 points on Yougov:

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 13th Oct -

Con 31%, (-1)
Lab 34%, (no change)
LD 7%, (-2)
UKIP 17%; (+1)

APP -22 (no change)

Morning.

For those interested Barbara Keeley presents her Ten Minute Rule Bill regarding Bedroom Tax (Exemption for Carers) today.

OneButtonMonkey wrote:

Also, I've followed Jones' writing whether it was in the Graun or the Independent. and I have to say I don't notice a different editorial slant or axe to grind. What I see is another example of those on the left of the party being increasingly (and to my mind, rightly) disgruntled over the last 6-12 months with some of the announcements made. Now, one of the things we disagree about is how fair - or dangerous - it is to criticise the party at present, and that's fair enough. But the idea that he's ploughing a convenient line of criticism because of the paper to me seems rather inaccurate - it's simply more noticeable that he's speaking out at the moment, and there are more reasons to speak out.

Morning all (and apologies for linking to a long conversation from yesterday, as this may seem a bit random!)…and morning OBM

I've watched and read OJ for quite a while too - and whilst I agree that the left need voices and those voices must also sometimes be critical of Labour, I do sense a change in his tone - this youtube clip/BBC interview was the reason I mentioned him yesterday (I admit, as well, to a sigh of disappointment when I first heard he was going to the Graun - so you could say I'm biased)

The little smirk followed by 'I think everyone agrees the conference speech wasn't Milibands finest hour' is quite telling for me - I've seen him passionately defend all sorts of things and would expect at that point some sort of comment around 'but he did speak for 2 hours, without notes, and actually missed out a small part. The fact that it became an issue was because of the media and nothing else' - he did manage to knock back the 'Tories are ahead in the polls' lie.

[youtube]N64jaf1_9Ew[/youtube]

This recent interview places the blame for Labours percieved weakness and ineffectiveness at their own door - no mention anywhere about the anti-Miliband-fest we've had in the MSM because 'Wallace' 'stabbed his brother in the back' and how difficult it is to get an alternative view heard.

http://www.totalpolitics.com/homepage/r ... nman.thtml

I sincerely hope you are right, and that I'm just being oversensitive about the nuances of tone and that he'll come out all guns blazing in support of Ed and Labour.

All the Posh fans on here will enjoy this bit though (especially Giselle)

"Throughout our conversation he’s keen to talk up Lisa Forbes, a Labour candidate in Peterborough who will be running against Stewart Jackson in 2015. Jones describes Jackson as “one of the most obnoxious people on Earth”.

Priti Patel was fairly useless on Today, being interviewed about the pension changes. It took Sarah Montague several attempts to get her to say that "people drawing from their pensions need to be in work" and "you need to have a minimum income of £12.5k". These are not controversial questions that need to be swerved, but Patel kept banging on about "choice" and "freedom".

I would be surprised if she gets pushed forwards again. The Tories seem to have an issue finding women who interview well (Chloe Smith, Patel, Nikki Morgan against Mair), or at least briefing them properly and not dropping them into terrible situations.

Rochester bye election on the 20th November.

Just when I think my loathing for this government, and various heads of councils, can't get any worse along comes something like this.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ials-mipim" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Imagine having the luxury of social housing in London and reading article after article like this, you must wonder when are we next?

The Tories will move the writ for the Rochester byelection to be held on Thursday 20 November, the BBC is reporting.

From AS blog.

HindleA wrote:Rochester bye election on the 20th November.

Beat me to it.

Morning all - just a regular reminder that in the last Euro elections the Greens polled more than the Lib Dems, and that they are polling more than the Lib Dems on most opinion polls.

Also, good to see at least lip service paid to the recognition of Palestine as an independent state last night; the state belongs to the people, and not to Hamas, and the actions they take. If Cameron had turned round and said "Scotland can have independence as long as the SNP stands down," I think he would have got short shrift.

By legitimising the state and agreeing international borders it stops encroachment, and and state-sponsored bombings would be declared an act of war.

Was also quite touched by the subsequent speech on the state of the people of the Isle of Wight - not a constituency I usually have a lot of sympathy for - but they are financial crisis in microcosm; the 2 duopolist hovercraft companies were overleveraged and bought at a ridiculously high rate, and now they're trying to claw money back by gouging a captive audience, so the Tories are calling not for nationalisation or deregulation, but financial assistance through removal of regulations put in place to protect the environment. There was something quite sweet about the way he claimed a facebook page had 5,000 members, as if this was some great achievement.

Excellent - Hunt has written an open letter to Morgan about the "announcements" at the weekend.

Tristram Hunt: 'Dear Nicky, please explain your school rescue package'

http://news.tes.co.uk/b/opinion/2014/10 ... ge-39.aspx

and this gem...

Finally, on 28 July the schools minister Lord Nash announced that, "There is no role for regional school commissioners on maintained schools; that is a role for local authorities, and, as I say, we have clarified their role". Could you please explain when you "unclarified" the role? And what conversation have you had with the chief whip on this policy shift?

Good. This is exactly what we need.

Morning.

After seeing the graphic posted here yesterday about the number of appearances on Question Time by UKIP outnumbering the combined appearances by other minor parties with 17 MPs amongst them, I've contacted the BBC [by phone].

I've asked for a response confirming or denying the accuracy of the claim, and if confirmed for an explanation as to why the BBC allowed UKIP so much publicity on QT since 2010.

Inflation figures for Sept.

The rate of consumer price index inflation fell to 1.2% in September from 1.5% in August.
The rate of retail price index inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.4%.

I think I'm right in saying that this is the month used for uprating state pensions and benefits...so that's a 1.2% increase.

It used to be RPI - wonder what pensioners have lost since 2010 because of the change?

refitman wrote:Priti Patel was fairly useless on Today, being interviewed about the pension changes. It took Sarah Montague several attempts to get her to say that "people drawing from their pensions need to be in work" and "you need to have a minimum income of £12.5k". These are not controversial questions that need to be swerved, but Patel kept banging on about "choice" and "freedom".

I would be surprised if she gets pushed forwards again. The Tories seem to have an issue finding women who interview well (Chloe Smith, Patel, Nikki Morgan against Mair), or at least briefing them properly and not dropping them into terrible situations.

Sorry - is that a typo? 'Priti Patel is now, and always has been, useless' I think you meant! (...and surely the issue is not just the women?)

This is the presentation problem I've been banging on about - who, for the Tories, is actually going to passionately defend their record? Even with a craven supine press, now, 8 months from the election, they're having problems understanding the questions and have the Pavlovian tic associated with 'choice....freedom....Labour mess' - it's why I subscribe to AAWs view that Ed will win the election easily (and not a little bit by default...it's not his fault or that of the Labour party that the Tories (and their Yellow Enablers) are such nasty, venal, empty-headed sh1ts.)

I'm also still of the opinion that Ed is playing the long game, he's known the date of the election for over 4 years - to be tearing lumps out of the incumbent Creche of Incompetence might look good but does use up energy - with what is perceived to be a 'Tory-lite' Labour ahead in the (all-important) polls by between 3% and 7% anyway, I think he's going for a slow and gentle increase in heat and pressure on the Dunce of Downing Street and rest (see Tristrams' letter to Morgan (thanks RoT) - and indeed, his letter about why someone with the name Tristram doesn't have to be a Tory - which I can't find the link for ) I think they are going to come out fighting with alternatives (as someone said, first the press accused them of no policies...now there are too many ) but it won't be yet - again, as someone said - if they come out with a good idea now it'll get nicked, announced and sink in the sea of omnishambolic frackwittery.

RogerOThornhill wrote:Inflation figures for Sept.

The rate of consumer price index inflation fell to 1.2% in September from 1.5% in August.
The rate of retail price index inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.4%.

I think I'm right in saying that this is the month used for uprating state pensions and benefits...so that's a 1.2% increase.

It used to be RPI - wonder what pensioners have lost since 2010 because of the change?

If anyone's tweeting for FTN, please could you ask Beaker or Tim Farron, they are always trumpeting just what they've done for pensioners.

yahyah wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote:Inflation figures for Sept.

The rate of consumer price index inflation fell to 1.2% in September from 1.5% in August.
The rate of retail price index inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.4%.

I think I'm right in saying that this is the month used for uprating state pensions and benefits...so that's a 1.2% increase.

It used to be RPI - wonder what pensioners have lost since 2010 because of the change?

If anyone's tweeting for FTN, please could you ask Beaker or Tim Farron, they are always trumpeting just what they've done for pensioners.

I've just been reminded by RClayton over there that there's a triple lock for state pensions so that will rise by 2.5%

It's public sector pensions and benefits that will only rise by CPI.

Triple lock here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25609485

Lonewolfie wrote:I think they are going to come out fighting with alternatives (as someone said, first the press accused them of no policies...now there are too many ) but it won't be yet - again, as someone said - if they come out with a good idea now it'll get nicked, announced and sink in the sea of omnishambolic frackwittery.

Been saying that for ages, keeping your powder dry is the prudent way to approach an election, especially when you are facing a Coalition now utterly devoid of original thought.*

No reshuffle on the cards apparently, so you'll all have to go on hating Ed Balls.

http://labourlist.org/2014/10/miliband- ... reshuffle/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

* Nice to be able to make that comment without the usual tedious reply from Notso.

Ed Balls

yahyah wrote:Morning.

After seeing the graphic posted here yesterday about the number of appearances on Question Time by UKIP outnumbering the combined appearances by other minor parties with 17 MPs amongst them, I've contacted the BBC [by phone].

I've asked for a response confirming or denying the accuracy of the claim, and if confirmed for an explanation as to why the BBC allowed UKIP so much publicity on QT since 2010.

I once sent an FOI about the number of times a kipper had been on the panel.

The response was along the lines of they don't have the details to satisfy my request.

If I can find it, I'll post it up then we can compare the responses.

@Spacedone - thank you for your detailed instruction on how to get that bloody beta off my comment screen. It works on Chrome too

RogerOThornhill wrote:Inflation figures for Sept.

The rate of consumer price index inflation fell to 1.2% in September from 1.5% in August.
The rate of retail price index inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.4%.

I think I'm right in saying that this is the month used for uprating state pensions and benefits...so that's a 1.2% increase.

It used to be RPI - wonder what pensioners have lost since 2010 because of the change?

It used to be in Sept but whether that's changed, I don't know.

Re: The tory's open primary for Rochester - can someone organise a write-in campaign for 'None of the above'? Or maybe 'Dennis Skinner'? Even 'Mark Reckless' would be fun.

yahyah wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote:Inflation figures for Sept.

The rate of consumer price index inflation fell to 1.2% in September from 1.5% in August.
The rate of retail price index inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.4%.

I think I'm right in saying that this is the month used for uprating state pensions and benefits...so that's a 1.2% increase.

It used to be RPI - wonder what pensioners have lost since 2010 because of the change?

If anyone's tweeting for FTN, please could you ask Beaker or Tim Farron, they are always trumpeting just what they've done for pensioners.

Hi yahyah happy to can you summarise the issue in a few words for me?

Looks like the Tories are being reasonably smart in Rochester. Their candidate will be one of two female Tory councillors, with Tolhurst representing part of the R&S seat on Medway council.

Could be quite a contest.

A bit late but BBC Parliament has coverage now of the Select Commitee looking at free schools and Academies.

HindleA wrote:A bit late but BBC Parliament has coverage now of the Select Commitee looking at free schools and Academies.

Sorry I should have pointed this out earlier as I've been watching since the start.

Some very good points made on so-called academy "freedoms" i.e. things that any school can do, about Kings Science and their mysterious "no chair of governors" situation, rapidly disappearing LA services, mismanagement of funds in academies.

Actually, the session tomorrow with Nicky Morgan on radicalization and Trojan Horse might be more interesting since there have been 5 s.8 inspections of the schools put into special measures published today.

they don't make for good reading...I'll see if I can summarize later.

We might also get an answer to the question raised in the HoL.

Asked by Baroness Jones of Whitchurch

To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the statement by Lord Nash on 9 June (HL Deb, col 167), whether the investigation by the Permanent Secretary of the Department for Education into the handling of the Trojan horse allegations in 2010 will be made public; and what is the timeframe for the report.[HL282]

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Schools (Lord Nash) (Con): The Secretary of State has asked the Permanent Secretary to conduct an internal review into how the Department for Education dealt with warnings in Birmingham since the formation of this Government in 2010, and before. The Permanent Secretary intends to present his findings to the Secretary of State later in the summer.

Given that the minister involved is now our European Commissioner, that might make for an interesting read if they don't come back with "Oh, the file's missing".

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:This Tweet made me chuckle

rosita stefanyszyn retweeted
Francesca ‏@FrancescaDykes Aug 17
Just read that 4,153,237 people got married last year, not to cause any trouble but shouldn't that be an even number?

Perhaps one of them got the marriage annulled fairly quickly and then married someone else

There's a new poster over at AS called SardineBurglar...one of his posts got the following response...

HeronsFlight SardineBurglar 5m ago

What you fail to mention, Hugo, is the policies the Tories would have passed had they not been in Coalition and how unpopular they may have been, nor that UKIP's rise may well have been nipped in the bud.

I'd already guessed it was him - why does he do it I wonder?

adam wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:This Tweet made me chuckle

rosita stefanyszyn retweeted
Francesca ‏@FrancescaDykes Aug 17
Just read that 4,153,237 people got married last year, not to cause any trouble but shouldn't that be an even number?

Perhaps one of them got the marriage annulled fairly quickly and then married someone else

That would do it

* btw I seem to have deleted my original post rather than edit it

News for ephemerid

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -back.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Does-it-even-matter-that-Kim-Jong-un-is-back

I found this report strangely fascinating: university-tuition-fees-in-the-cpi

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cpi/unive ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Because Education is included in the basket of goods used to measure inflation, the changes in University Tuition fees have had quite an effect.

If I recall correctly this Government has already commissioned a report into examining how UK v English voting can be amended but the conclusion was it's not straightforward at all. Does anyone more organised than myself remember and have a link please?

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I found this report strangely fascinating: university-tuition-fees-in-the-cpi

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cpi/unive ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Because Education is included in the basket of goods used to measure inflation, the changes in University Tuition fees have had quite an effect.

Shouldn't it be weighted by around 40% or so for the fact that a large proportion will never be repaid?

StephenDolan wrote:If I recall correctly this Government has already commissioned a report into examining how UK v English voting can be amended but the conclusion was it's not straightforward at all. Does anyone more organised than myself remember and have a link please?

I think it was by Ken Clarke

From Wikipedia

Kenneth Clarke's Democracy Taskforce
Following his election as Leader of the Conservative Party in 2005, David Cameron established a "Democracy Taskforce" chaired by Kenneth Clarke. The taskforce's final report "Devolution, The West Lothian Question and the Future of the Union" proposed a possible solution to the West Lothian question. The proposals called for changes in procedures in the House of Commons for the passage of bills relating only to England. Under the new procedures, all MPs would participate in the first and second readings of these bills, but only English MPs would participate in the committee stage consideration of the bill. All MPs would vote on the final bill at report stage. An amendment proposed by Malcolm Rifkind suggested that the second reading and report stages of would require a "double majority" of both the House as a whole and of English MPs.

You can download what I assume is the Report here

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn02586.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Response to new report into Birmingham Schools -T.Hunt

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/9998705 ... am-schools" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill wrote:There's a new poster over at AS called SardineBurglar...one of his posts got the following response...

HeronsFlight SardineBurglar 5m ago

What you fail to mention, Hugo, is the policies the Tories would have passed had they not been in Coalition and how unpopular they may have been, nor that UKIP's rise may well have been nipped in the bud.

I'd already guessed it was him - why does he do it I wonder?

How long before his posts all get zapped today??

Seriously, if that is now the Graun mod policy it is a bit of a waste of time conversing with him 'cos your responses will be deleted as well

RogerOThornhill wrote:There's a new poster over at AS called SardineBurglar...one of his posts got the following response...

HeronsFlight SardineBurglar 5m ago

What you fail to mention, Hugo, is the policies the Tories would have passed had they not been in Coalition and how unpopular they may have been, nor that UKIP's rise may well have been nipped in the bud.

I'd already guessed it was him - why does he do it I wonder?

Awesome that he doesn't even bother to deny it when he replied!

HindleA wrote:Response to new report into Birmingham Schools -T.Hunt

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/9998705 ... am-schools" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting timing of the s.8 Ofsted reports and Wilshaw's letter to Morgan about them given that she is appearing before the Edu Select Committee tomorrow morning about that very subject.

And that Wilshaw seems to be blaming the council more than the DfE given that 4 of the 5 schools are academies.

Mike Tomlinson was appointed by Morgan to take change of schools in Birmingham for a year yet there's no mention in Wilshaw's letter of him having been consulted. He might have been but it's odd that he doesn't get mentioned given his role.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Labour already had the infrastructure in place when they established the Regional Select Committees, whose raison d'etre was to look at the implications of legislature on English regions as defined by the EU elections. Sure you had a system where a government based in Bristol determined what was good for Plymouth, but only because the Tories refused to put any candidates forward.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_minister" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re the Owen Jones discussion here, I know this isn't a universal line amongst Labour loyalists but I have always had quite a lot of time for him.

So his latest piece being pretty much boilerplate Labour/Ed bashing was rather disappointing.

I just hope he doesn't go full-on John Harris and start burbling about UKIP's "authenticity"

David Nuttall -utter prick,apologies for language.

Would it not be better for Tristram Hunt to denounce the whole media/Gove hysteria surrounding the fabricated 'trojan horse' nonsense?

Instead he appears to accept that nonsense as true and attacks the government for failing to respond to something that wasn't happening.

Why not attack the conspiracy behind the faked media furore? It emanates from the education department after all and they damn well should be attacked for it.

As it is he is playing into their hands, because it is easy for them to come up with new faked stories and have the media and Tristram dancing to their tune again.

HindleA wrote:David Nuttall -utter prick,apologies for language.

Well, yes, he is. I've just had to (as a local councillor) help out a resident whose husband had applied for a visa to this country - so that they could actually live together - who'd written to him and got nowhere. I stepped in to help resolve an issue that is my rights an MP's, and which he'd ignored for months.

It's now sorted out, but no thanks to him. She wrote to me yesterday, very relieved, to tell me that it's definitely cemented in her mind how she'll vote next year.

mikems wrote:Would it not be better for Tristram Hunt to denounce the whole media/Gove hysteria surrounding the fabricated 'trojan horse' nonsense?

Instead he appears to accept that nonsense as true and attacks the government for failing to respond to something that wasn't happening.

Why not attack the conspiracy behind the faked media furore? It emanates from the education department after all and they damn well should be attacked for it.

As it is he is playing into their hands, because it is easy for them to come up with new faked stories and have the media and Tristram dancing to their tune again.

I had the same thoughts. It's a bit like the Eurostar thing we were discussing yesterday.

It does feel like a co-ordinated onslaught on the Government's competence. While I would (and do as you know!) enjoy discussing the points of principle all day, it may be that Labour are doing the right thing electorally by presenting themselves as a safe pair of hands compared with the shambolic Coalition.

This is quite a good read on Blair McDougall who ran the Better Together campaign.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10 ... 78006.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What is to stop the tories/media coming up with new trojan horse stories pre-election? If they do, Tristram will be in a poor position to fend them off, because he has accepted lies as truth and they will denounce him for 'being weak' against radical islam or whatever.

To me you can't maintain a comprehensive strategy if you are constantly making tactical retreats on ground you could not only easily defend but could also use to go on the offensive i.e. 'why is the DofE pushing lies into the media?'

Instead, in a tactical retreat, the lies are accepted.

HindleA wrote:David Nuttall -utter prick,apologies for language.

You really must try harder

mikems wrote:What is to stop the tories/media coming up with new trojan horse stories pre-election? If they do, Tristram will be in a poor position to fend them off, because he has accepted lies as truth and they will denounce him for 'being weak' against radical islam or whatever.

To me you can't maintain a comprehensive strategy if you are constantly making tactical retreats on ground you could not only easily defend but could also use to go on the offensive i.e. 'why is the DofE pushing lies into the media?'

Instead, in a tactical retreat, the lies are accepted.

This, in effect, should also be the response to the attempt at 'English votes for English laws' gerrymandering. Labour need to do more than um and ah about this, they need to demonstrate how what the tories and much of the press are going to consistently present as though it is simply plain common sense is just a huge power grab.

Andrew's comment ATL on his blog...

(But would the Tories really want to push this through before the election? Isn’t it more value to them as an election issue, and if they were to change the constitution in this way, wouldn’t they want to do so with an mandate from the electorate?)

... is almost rather sweet in its innocence.

Keeleys's bill goes to second reading on 21st November ; only eight MP's voted against.