Friday 18th September 2020

[refitman]

Morning all.

[adam]

New UK Covid test is effective but won't impact numbers as hoped

A paper in the Lancet Microbe journal assessing the DnaNudge test’s performance found it was 94.4% sensitive – so it will fail to identify 5.6 cases in 100.

Which, if it's a big part of the whole moonshot idea, is false negatives for 56,000 in a million. 50,000+ false negative tests a day. It doesn't mention how effective it is on specificity - avoiding false positives - but if it's around the same then that's also 50,000+ people a day who aren't infected being told that they are. A million in the wrong boxes every ten days.

There's a story, isn't there, about one of the NASA launches going wrong because somebody swapped a positive for a negative sign before one part of one calculation out of hundreds of thousands...

[adam]

My news is that school is as fine as it can reasonably be expected to be, and the trains are really quiet, but circumstances have allowed me to think about taking a sabbatical for a year, and just staying put at home in much more control of my environment hoping that a year will see this out, and I'm trying to sort that out at the moment.

[RogerOThornhill]

Morning all.

'Er indoors finally made it back at 11pm last night and she's basically fine although obviously moving around slowly. Onwards and upwards.

On the downside, that means I'll have ironing to do on Sunday...

Interesting to see after that denial of a two week lockdown that they are actually considering one. Cat being let out the bag...

From the DT.

The Government is considering a "circuit break" short-term national lockdown over the next half term, in a bid to bring coronavirus cases down before the pandemic spirals out of control, Matt Hancock has admitted....

[RogerOThornhill]

In yet another in the shocked etc series,,,

Home Office 'bases immigration policies on anecdotes and prejudice' – MPs

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ing-report" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Meg Hillier, chair of the committee, said: “The Home Office has frighteningly little grasp of the impact of its activities in managing immigration. It shows no inclination to learn from its numerous mistakes across a swathe of immigration activities – even when it fully accepts that it has made serious errors.

“It accepts the wreckage that its ignorance and the culture it has fostered caused in the Windrush scandal – but the evidence we saw shows too little intent to change, and inspires no confidence that the next such scandal isn’t right around the corner.”

[gilsey]

Oops.

The MP for Stockport in Greater Manchester was delighted this week to receive a letter promising a new testing site in his constituency, where the infection rate is almost double the national average.

There was only one problem: the much-needed facility was 240 miles away – in Kent.

In a letter to the Labour MP Navendu Mishra, the health minister Lord Bethell wrote: “I am writing to update you on the provision of Coronavirus testing in Stockport.”

However, the letter added: “I wanted to write to you to confirm that we are opening a Local Test Site in your constituency at the Jellicoe Building Car Park – University of Greenwich, over the coming days.”

[AnatolyKasparov]

My news is that school is as fine as it can reasonably be expected to be, and the trains are really quiet, but circumstances have allowed me to think about taking a sabbatical for a year, and just staying put at home in much more control of my environment hoping that a year will see this out, and I'm trying to sort that out at the moment.

Sounds like a good idea in the current climate.

[frog222]

New UK Covid test is effective but won't impact numbers as hoped

A paper in the Lancet Microbe journal assessing the DnaNudge test’s performance found it was 94.4% sensitive – so it will fail to identify 5.6 cases in 100.

Which, if it's a big part of the whole moonshot idea, is false negatives for 56,000 in a million. 50,000+ false negative tests a day. It doesn't mention how effective it is on specificity - avoiding false positives - but if it's around the same then that's also 50,000+ people a day who aren't infected being told that they are. A million in the wrong boxes every ten days.
There's a story, isn't there, about one of the NASA launches going wrong because somebody swapped a positive for a negative sign before one part of one calculation out of hundreds of thousands...

Some more Moonshine--

Last week, the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) invited bids for a new COVID-19 contract. Worth between £384 and £785 million, the successful firm will be required to pick up, package and deliver an average of 200,000 Coronavirus home testing kits a day, across the country.

But the length of the contract is perhaps its most illuminating detail. The DHSC says the contract will run for at least two years, “plus an optional six month extension”.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/09/17/two- ... e-testing/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[frog222]

[frog222]

Well, there are many more than Serco involved, a

long list in this article !

Boris Johnson continues to refer to the “NHS Test and Trace” yet the irony is, when the NHS was actually in charge of the UK’s testing a diagnostic network, it was better perhaps better prepared to deal with a pandemic.

Dr Valerie Bevan, a retired microbiologist who helped manage NHS-run labs in the ’90s, told HuffPost UK: “It wasn’t all perfect but there was a network of 52 laboratories and I think what would have happened is that testing could have been ramped up because there was good communication and trained scientists were already there.

“In the late 2000s a lot of labs were given over to the private sector, to companies like Serco who managed them. It meant they were independent from the NHS and had to cut costs and be profit-making which was a false economy.

“Had a network of laboratories been maintained and properly resourced, it would have kept pace with the changes that were happening, so if you had a big outbreak, it would have been prepared for it.”

This week, leading doctors groups joined the revolt against the government’s handling of the crisis.

Following health secretary Matt Hancock’s admission on Tuesday that tests for Covid-19 will have to be rationed amid a surge in cases, the British Medical Association told HuffPost UK “we don’t have a fit-for-purpose testing system”.

Deputy chair Dr David Wrigley, added: “NHS Test and Trace – despite its name – is not an NHS service, it’s a largely outsourced programme that sees numerous private companies given billions of pounds to run testing sites, process samples and manage contact tracing call centres.

“Despite billions changing hands, we don’t have a fit-for-purpose testing system. People can’t access tests, they’re not getting results in time, they’re having to isolate for days on end while waiting for results and we see contact tracers failing to reach enough people.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 1b09c77477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So was it New Labour which bears responsibility for this particular bit of destruction ?
Next, when will the LP 2020 make a point of the misuse of the NHS 'brand' (for a start!) ?

Johnson made the accusation yesterday afternoon that the Opposition was attacking the good people working so hard on T & T (my paraphrase, but that is what it amounted to ).
An obvious opening for the LP to point out that they are working for the wrong (inefficient) organisations , often in the wrong places, but that it's not their fault ?

[citizenJA]

My news is that school is as fine as it can reasonably be expected to be, and the trains are really quiet, but circumstances have allowed me to think about taking a sabbatical for a year, and just staying put at home in much more control of my environment hoping that a year will see this out, and I'm trying to sort that out at the moment.

Sounds like a good idea in the current climate.

I agree

[citizenJA]

Good afternoon, everyone.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I think that Ashworth has been pointing quite a lot of that out, froggers.

[Willow904]

Well, there are many more than Serco involved, a

long list in this article !

Boris Johnson continues to refer to the “NHS Test and Trace” yet the irony is, when the NHS was actually in charge of the UK’s testing a diagnostic network, it was better perhaps better prepared to deal with a pandemic.

Dr Valerie Bevan, a retired microbiologist who helped manage NHS-run labs in the ’90s, told HuffPost UK: “It wasn’t all perfect but there was a network of 52 laboratories and I think what would have happened is that testing could have been ramped up because there was good communication and trained scientists were already there.

“In the late 2000s a lot of labs were given over to the private sector, to companies like Serco who managed them. It meant they were independent from the NHS and had to cut costs and be profit-making which was a false economy.

“Had a network of laboratories been maintained and properly resourced, it would have kept pace with the changes that were happening, so if you had a big outbreak, it would have been prepared for it.”

This week, leading doctors groups joined the revolt against the government’s handling of the crisis.

Following health secretary Matt Hancock’s admission on Tuesday that tests for Covid-19 will have to be rationed amid a surge in cases, the British Medical Association told HuffPost UK “we don’t have a fit-for-purpose testing system”.

Deputy chair Dr David Wrigley, added: “NHS Test and Trace – despite its name – is not an NHS service, it’s a largely outsourced programme that sees numerous private companies given billions of pounds to run testing sites, process samples and manage contact tracing call centres.

“Despite billions changing hands, we don’t have a fit-for-purpose testing system. People can’t access tests, they’re not getting results in time, they’re having to isolate for days on end while waiting for results and we see contact tracers failing to reach enough people.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 1b09c77477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So was it New Labour which bears responsibility for this particular bit of destruction ?
Next, when will the LP 2020 make a point of the misuse of the NHS 'brand' (for a start!) ?

Johnson made the accusation yesterday afternoon that the Opposition was attacking the good people working so hard on T & T (my paraphrase, but that is what it amounted to ).
An obvious opening for the LP to point out that they are working for the wrong (inefficient) organisations , often in the wrong places, but that it's not their fault ?

After 10 years of Tory government, blaming Labour is a bit rich. Besides, the NHS organised part of testing is running far more efficiently than the recently contracted Serco operation, despite the NHS outsourcing to the private sector. I feel the above is conflating issues. All of Germany's healthcare is contracted out to the private sector, that isn't the problem. Creating new, separate systems under the guidance of someone with no background in healthcare is the problem. The scrapping of PCT's which would have surely been in charge of a lot of these things under Labour and not utilising our (private sector) GP primary care practises is all part of the problem. We were pandemic ready when swine flu hit, we werent after 10 years of Tory mismanagement.

[howsillyofme1]

Good afternoon

Interesting to see a big deal being lade of false positives now that the Government has gone for this ridiculous mass testing idea but actually this is a problem already and has been pointed out for a long time with the current testing regime at low prevalence. We could be picking up a lot of residual virus particles.

I also see the UK is now planning for a population experiment with lockdown again - and make no mistake this is as much an experiment as would be proposing herd immunity. If you lockdown at the beginning of the respiratory virus season then it will be interesting to see what metrics will be used to come out of it at the other end. It is not like the March/April time when we were only testing symptomatic people

If you lockdown now then when will you come out again - May? The numbers of people with cases and the confidence with other respiratory illnesses is going to make this all the more chaotic

Lockdown is not a strategy - the strategy is defining what we are trying to achieve and to be honest I have no idea any more. It was originally to ensure health service not overwhelmed now it seems to be elimination (suppression doesn't work as has been shown if you intend to open up again)

I would throw out as a starting point a regional symptomatic case number of 50 cases/100000 (this is just a guess - needs more work) backed up by more focused and perhaps even a statistically designed programme to check for asymptomatic prevalence using a robust test designed for that purpose with know error.

There needs to be a clear metric defined for lead (a more robust case number view as above) and then use hospitalisations and deaths as the lag measures. Introduce local health teams to monitor and test risk areas (care homes, hospitals, confined workplaces etc). Have a better defined track and trace for those symptomatic cases.

There are a number of options but none of them would be anything like the chaos of today. And to be honest many of the voices against Government just shout lockdown and have nothing else useful to say

[frog222]

Well, there are many more than Serco involved, a

long list in this article !

Boris Johnson continues to refer to the “NHS Test and Trace” yet the irony is, when the NHS was actually in charge of the UK’s testing a diagnostic network, it was better perhaps better prepared to deal with a pandemic.

Dr Valerie Bevan, a retired microbiologist who helped manage NHS-run labs in the ’90s, told HuffPost UK: “It wasn’t all perfect but there was a network of 52 laboratories and I think what would have happened is that testing could have been ramped up because there was good communication and trained scientists were already there.

“In the late 2000s a lot of labs were given over to the private sector, to companies like Serco who managed them. It meant they were independent from the NHS and had to cut costs and be profit-making which was a false economy.

“Had a network of laboratories been maintained and properly resourced, it would have kept pace with the changes that were happening, so if you had a big outbreak, it would have been prepared for it.”

This week, leading doctors groups joined the revolt against the government’s handling of the crisis.

Following health secretary Matt Hancock’s admission on Tuesday that tests for Covid-19 will have to be rationed amid a surge in cases, the British Medical Association told HuffPost UK “we don’t have a fit-for-purpose testing system”.

Deputy chair Dr David Wrigley, added: “NHS Test and Trace – despite its name – is not an NHS service, it’s a largely outsourced programme that sees numerous private companies given billions of pounds to run testing sites, process samples and manage contact tracing call centres.

“Despite billions changing hands, we don’t have a fit-for-purpose testing system. People can’t access tests, they’re not getting results in time, they’re having to isolate for days on end while waiting for results and we see contact tracers failing to reach enough people.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 1b09c77477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So was it New Labour which bears responsibility for this particular bit of destruction ?
Next, when will the LP 2020 make a point of the misuse of the NHS 'brand' (for a start!) ?

Johnson made the accusation yesterday afternoon that the Opposition was attacking the good people working so hard on T & T (my paraphrase, but that is what it amounted to ).
An obvious opening for the LP to point out that they are working for the wrong (inefficient) organisations , often in the wrong places, but that it's not their fault ?

After 10 years of Tory government, blaming Labour is a bit rich. Besides, the NHS organised part of testing is running far more efficiently than the recently contracted Serco operation, despite the NHS outsourcing to the private sector. I feel the above is conflating issues. All of Germany's healthcare is contracted out to the private sector, that isn't the problem. Creating new, separate systems under the guidance of someone with no background in healthcare is the problem. The scrapping of PCT's which would have surely been in charge of a lot of these things under Labour and not utilising our (private sector) GP primary care practises is all part of the problem. We were pandemic ready when swine flu hit, we werent after 10 years of Tory mismanagement.

Willow -- I wasn't blaming today's Labour for today's clusterfuck , it was a question on the history !!!
Outsourcing, and doing it at any price and very clumsily indeed, looks like a UK specialty ?
As in Germany many of our private 'clinics' were founded by groups of doctors, alongside the state-run hospitals. ( A German GP couple I used to work for told me of their local state hospital being sold for a symbolic One Euro... but they didn't tell me the buyer). I don't know about Germany, but here Private Equity firms are buying up smaller operators of care homes/clinics etc.

On the current fubar, the problem was in creating new separate systems , and attempting to completely bypass existing NHS/local government structures . We agree !

[AnatolyKasparov]

And to be honest many of the voices against Government just shout lockdown and have nothing else useful to say

There is a section of online Corbynism that does seem to think total lockdown forever is the only way to go.

[gilsey]

I can understand some people thinking that indefinite lockdown is the way to go, because we don't have a good alternative. That's as true now as it was in May, govt has wasted the time lockdown gave them.

We here and many others more knowledgeable and influential can bang on all we like about how 'attempting to completely bypass existing NHS/local government structures' is the wrong way to go, but the govt doesn't agree. They're not listening.

Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
The UK Right became enamoured with behavioural psychology because it seemed to promise to governments that they could achieve greater state outcomes even after cutting state resources

Not a mindset that helps much when you have a crisis that requires rapid expansion of the state

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

Lockdown cannot eliminate the virus on its own. The real justification for it - here and elsewhere - was to buy time to work out the best way of containing things until a vaccine is available (well, that and not overwhelming medical services)

Time which this government has largely wasted.

[frog222]

Dido Queen of Carnage
“I don’t think anybody was expecting to see the really sizeable increase in demand that we’ve seen over the course of the last few weeks.” (sic!)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... do-harding" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Willow904]

https://zeenews.india.com/india/single- ... 04605.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Single-day coronavirus COVID-19 testing across India crosses 1 million-mark: Health Ministry

I don't know anything about the quality of the tests India is doing and, of course, they have twice the population we do, but it's still an impressive amount of testing. According to this article two-thirds of India's labs are in the public sector. They are also, as far as I can tell, currently producing a greater number of negative to positive tests than we are, which is a good thing, however much Matt Hancock moans about people without covid getting tested. Obviously this is only useful in so far as how well India can use the information to isolate contacts and break the chain of contagion but in terms of a rapid response it does rather suggest an established network of public owned labs beats a hastily thrown together privately run effort.

Edited to add actually I think India are producing a similar amount of negatives to positives. I misread the chart

[frog222]

Willow -- shurely twenty times the population

[Willow904]

Willow -- shurely twenty times the population

That does sound more likely, I confess

I already missread the chart I was looking at so I know my brain isn't screwed on right today.

India definitely has us beat in one area though - meeting a government target!

[frog222]

Willow -- shurely twenty times the population

That does sound more likely, I confess
I already missread the chart I was looking at so I know my brain isn't screwed on right today.
India definitely has us beat in one area though - meeting a government target!

We ARE living through unprecedented times ... !
Just nagged second daughter for an update after her and husband's three weeks' back of teaching with all concerned wearing masks ... also to see how some grandsons are getting on with same !

[frog222]

[frog222]

The newsagent in my local metropolis (pop 1189 1/2) sells a selection of day-old UK and German papers, and I once saw a copy of the Daily Star, an amazingly awful product of the True British tabloidery !

Recently their front pages have been very pointed, and most entertaining .

[Willow904]

Willow -- shurely twenty times the population

That does sound more likely, I confess
I already missread the chart I was looking at so I know my brain isn't screwed on right today.
India definitely has us beat in one area though - meeting a government target!

We ARE living through unprecedented times ... !
Just nagged second daughter for an update after her and husband's three weeks' back of teaching with all concerned wearing masks ... also to see how some grandsons are getting on with same !

What I was trying to get across was that India seemed to be able to utilise existing infrastructure to achieve results not far off our own, despite the enormous challenges, so why couldn't we, why did we need this separate, centralised contract? Obviously, because of its size ( ) 1m tests a day isn't exactly "moonshot" territory, it's probably the bare minimum needed, but it's a substantial achievement and when contrasted with our own government who have veered from "testing not needed outside hospitals" to "everything depends on mass testing" and now "too many people are getting tested" it's depressing how incompetent we've become.

[frog222]

@ Willow -- the poor Brits are now afflicted by some of the most mediocre politicians of modern times .
But as we've often discussed here before they are being very efficient at plundering govt finances to distribute to their mates , while concentrating Power and destroying any and all competing institutions . The best sources i have on that are https://bylinetimes.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[frog222]

NNN !

[RogerOThornhill]

Soooo...was that tweet about Whitty proposing a 2 week lockdown which was then denied actually just the government putting the idea out there so that people got used to it so that when it eventually does come people think "Well, we knew that was coming"?

[citizenJA]

NHS hospitals have been banned from launching their own coronavirus testing for staff and patients who have symptoms – despite a nationwide shortage in tests.

Leaked NHS documents, passed to The Independent, show the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has now capped funding for Covid-19 testing in the health service, even though the lack of tests has left hospital doctors, nurses, teachers and other key workers forced to stay at home.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 85589.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[citizenJA]

Soooo...was that tweet about Whitty proposing a 2 week lockdown which was then denied actually just the government putting the idea out there so that people got used to it so that when it eventually does come people think "Well, we knew that was coming"?

Could be, wouldn't surprise me.
I wish I didn't need to regard government as hostile.

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA