FlyTheNest

Morning all.

Good morning.


I'm getting to the point of reminiscing fondly about 2019 and only having Brexit to worry about. We didn't know we were born.

We are rather looking across the pond for the US to give us some hope next month.

If its any comfort a lot of online Tory types seem increasingly rattled at the prospect of Trump losing.

This is an excellent article.

Johnson has ignored the science and blown our chance to stop a second wave

Stephen Reicher

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... age-advice

Rather than following the science, the government plumped for an anaemic compromise between its scientific advisers and those arguing against any new restrictions...Ministers couldn’t even bring themselves to close pubs, instead opting for a nonsensical policy in England whereby pubs in areas under a tier 3 lockdown can remain open and serve alcohol so long as they also serve a “substantial” meal. This might keep Wetherspoons open, but it certainly won’t suppress coronavirus.

We now find ourselves occupying the worst of all worlds: a limbo where the pandemic drags on and causes more damage, leaving us hopeless and praying for a vaccine. The government’s policy of continuous local lockdowns will disrupt everyday lives and damage businesses, but it won’t suppress the virus. England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty conceded as much in a recent press briefing: in an extraordinary piece of political theatre, he followed the prime minister’s announcement of the three-tier system with a warning that these new measures won’t work.

It seems that we have learned nothing from the errors of June, and have given no consideration to how we might avoid repeating them.

We have a prime minister who craves approval and wants to please everyone, who lacks the strength to face down his backbenchers and ends up with half-measures that help nobody. At a time when we need it most, the country has been saddled with a woeful lack of leadership.

Starmer has just called for a "circuit breaker" - maybe that will liven this place up a bit!

It's obviously no surprise watching the debate this afternoon that it's the idiot cabal of Brexit clowns like Steve Baker who have been taken in by the so called 'Great Barrington declaration'.

The weightiest name behind it is Sunetra Gupta, so it seems only fair to have a look at what she's predicted previously and see if it bears any resemblance to the reality we find ourselves in now.

This is from May.

Sunetra Gupta: Covid-19 is on the way out

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubl ... interview/

Her group at Oxford produced a rival model to Ferguson’s back in March which speculated that as much as 50% of the population may already have been infected and the true Infection Fatality Rate may be as low as 0.1%.

This would not only require every antibody testing regime in the world to be fatally flawed but also for the coronaviruses that cause the common cold to offer immunity to Covid 19. As of now there is little evidence that they offer immunity in any meaningful way.

“In almost every context we’ve seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away — almost like clockwork. Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we’ve observed is almost a uniform pattern of behaviour which is highly consistent with the SIR model. To me that suggests that much of the driving force here was due to the build-up of immunity".

This is patently false. There is no 'almost uniform pattern of behaviour', quite the opposite. The virus has behaved very differently in countries which locked down quickly and those that didn't and as we are finding out right now it's showing absolutely no sign of 'dying away'.

Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.”

This is almost laughably wrong. Even in August when it was at its lowest the lockdown sceptic Carl Heneghan and his buddies at The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine had the IFR at 0.49% using ONS data.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/estimatin ... n-england/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So that's 1 in 200. Gupta's 'definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000' is spectacularly wrong.

she believes it is a “strong possibility” that if we return to full normal tomorrow — pubs, nightclubs, festivals — we would be fine, but accepts that is hard to prove with the current evidence.

Not anymore it's not. And yet she's still sticking to her guns.

You have to wonder why, and what kind of fool would still be listening to her.

I mean, I'm more sceptical about lockdowns than in the spring - but its abundantly clear that this pompously titled "Declaration" is so much piss and wind.

Oh I forgot...

So I know there is a sort of libertarian argument for the release of lockdown, and I think it is unfortunate that those of us who feel we should think differently about lockdown have had our voices added to that libertarian harangue.

Then maybe don't have your 'declaration' published by an American Libertarian think tank funded by Charles Koch.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/09/clim ... claration/

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I mean, I'm more sceptical about lockdowns than in the spring - but its abundantly clear that this pompously titled "Declaration" is so much piss and wind.

And yet she was on Question Time last month.

The BBC have clearly learned nothing from the climate change 'debate' and continue to give cranks a voice in the name of balance and it affects us all. Without a load of dribbling idiots on the Tory back benches spouting Gupta's nonsense it's possible even this government might have come up with somethething their chief medical officer could have faith in.

Good evening, everyone.

Coronavirus restrictions: Is a pasty enough to keep a pub open?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54523232

The answer according to Robert Jenrick is no unless it comes with a substantial bribe...oops I mean chips and a side salad.

I did like this though...

Speaking to to Radio 1 Newsbeat, Liverpool University student Ruth Brewer says she doesn't understand what is and isn't allowed.

"Its quite confusing,"she says.

"I literally have no idea, a substantial meal could be anything. Literally anything."

She said while munching on a motorcycle exhaust pipe stuffed with discarded children's gloves found in parks with a ground up Vivaldi record for seasoning.

Oh dear...

Ciaran Jenkins
@C4Ciaran
NEW: 'Fatima'’s dance school responds

Vibez in Motion Dance Studio tell
@Channel4News
they are 'deeply disturbed by the improper use of the photograph.'

They are taking legal advice.

In "most unsurprising news ever"...

NickFlag of United KingdomFlag of European Union
@nicktolhurst
+UPDATE+

UK govt to “scale back” it’s plan for a ‘Moonshot’ solution to Coronavirus testing strategy after initial planning shows original concept “unrealistic”.
7:38 PM · Oct 13, 2020·Twitter Web App

RogerOThornhill wrote:Oh dear...

Ciaran Jenkins
@C4Ciaran
NEW: 'Fatima'’s dance school responds

Vibez in Motion Dance Studio tell
@Channel4News
they are 'deeply disturbed by the improper use of the photograph.'

They are taking legal advice.

this is an interesting development if it were in a novel
as real life forehead thump down on table

RogerOThornhill wrote:Oh dear...

Ciaran Jenkins
@C4Ciaran
NEW: 'Fatima'’s dance school responds

Vibez in Motion Dance Studio tell
@Channel4News
they are 'deeply disturbed by the improper use of the photograph.'

They are taking legal advice.

They just don't take any care over anything, do they?

For anyone who hasn't seen it.

[youtube]F7LB-wiOfKs[/youtube]

I think it was a smart move and a decent speech.

Evenin' all.

Two unrelated links:

Worthless, self aggrandising, tosser:

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/ ... n-cottage/

Artists:

[youtube]rO6SkStmhGY[/youtube]

Less of the former, more of the latter in the next world I visit, please.

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:For anyone who hasn't seen it.
---
I think it was a smart move and a decent speech.

(cJA edit)

Very good.

Well well, now it all makes sense.

Carl Heneghan has just been on Newsnight spouting his usual claptrap much to the bemusement of Emily Maitlis, a Sage scientist and pretty much anyone with a functional cerebrum. Despite all evidence to the contrary he's advocating the kind of 'middle of the road' approach that flies in the face of all of Sage's advice but sit's nicely with the government's approach. And guess who it turns out he's been advising? Why our dolt of a Prime Minister Mr Johnson of course.

This would be the same Carl Heneghan who claimed hand washing was the most effective way to control an airbourne virus and lockdown's didn't work. He tried it again tonight only to get quickly slapped down.

If they're ignoring Sage and listening to fools like him then we really are screwed.

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA