Tuesday 2nd March 2021

[refitman]

Morning all.

[howsillyofme1]

Good morning

The 'Great Barrington Declaration' that I was asked if I had signed was actually put together by some pretty eminent scientists, but because their view goes against what has become the 'mainstream' it is seen as some evil conspiracy

The idea of the declaration, of course, was that society should attempt to go on as normal and we should attempt to shield the vulnerable. A pretty utopian view and one that is difficult to manage practically but it does not strike me as being particularly extreme and is pretty close to how pandemics have been managed and were proposed to be managed prior to 2020

It surprises me , even more, that the criticism comes most from those who propose a completely new and blunt NPI which closes down society, in some cases makes criminals out of people going to see their families, prevents exercise outside, closes are border to 'foreign variants' and many other limits of freedom that those same people would have said were extremely authoritarian prior to 2020

I also find it interesting that the implicit accusation of speaking about basic immunology and how immunity is a mixture of different aspects is now considered by those with no scientific background whatsoever to be extremist but locking down society with no evidence of any benefit and potentially at huge cost to social and physical well-being is seen as a moderate approach

Extreme: Protect the vulnerable but try to allow society and those at much lower risk to try to open

Moderate: Lock down society completely and nullify by Government decree many freedoms, including the most draconian laws at putting healthy people into quarantine ever seen in the UK. My friend, who lives in Scotland, cannot see his 90 year old parents as they would mean him crossing an LA boundary - meaning they do their own shopping. But then I am the extremist for thinking this is perhaps not the best approach

Amazing to see how many on the left who saw themselves as liberal now are seen to be authoritarianist

Open society with clear justification to lockdown rather than lockdown with justification to open. As a left winger who believes in an open society (and a pretty good scientist too) I fail to see the problem

[gilsey]

Speaking about the UK only here, we have

No functioning test and trace system

No support for people to stay at home when they have symptoms, probably the biggest failure of all

No support for schools to provide more space, better ventilation etc

No sanction on employers failing to make workplaces secure, no involvement of the HSE.


Others can probably think of more failures.


In this country lockdown is all we have and if we didn't have it I could see nothing to prevent us from going the same way as Manaus, until the vaccines were rolled out.


I should add a caveat that the Welsh and Scottish govts have done better on some of those measures.

And I'm not familiar with the Scottish regulations but in England your friend would be able to support his parents.

[RogerOThornhill]

Good morning.

I note that Mad Mel - how on earth she was ever a Guardian writer is really beyond all understanding now given her views - has been railing against asylum seekers and refugees.

This is a good demolition job.

https://twitter.com/stand_for_all/statu ... 8772690946" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[gilsey]

Marathon thread from Richard Murphy debunking the household analogy.

https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/stat ... 4434758661" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[gilsey]

Another one from Tony Yates, in despair over Hague's piece.

https://twitter.com/t0nyyates/status/13 ... 4379637766" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tony Yates
@t0nyyates
The William Hague article on debt is actually really weird and I can hardly follow it. But basically it's wrong.

[gilsey]

Here's Wren-Lewis.

simon wren-lewis
@sjwrenlewis
New post: The budget should create a balanced recovery, but instead it will be about the deficit https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2021/0 ... anced.html The only reason the Chancellor can get away with economic illiteracy about reducing the deficit while we are in a recession is that the media encourages it.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Good morning.

I note that Mad Mel - how on earth she was ever a Guardian writer is really beyond all understanding now given her views - has been railing against asylum seekers and refugees.

This is a good demolition job.

https://twitter.com/stand_for_all/statu ... 8772690946" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of course, she was a Guardian writer because back then her views were rather different.

She has taken the well trodden path to the political right, but even more spectacularly than most.

[Willow904]

Marathon thread from Richard Murphy debunking the household analogy.

https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/stat ... 4434758661" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, good thread. Slightly understates the risk of inflation, which is the legitimate reason for controlling spending, but necessarily so, I suspect, because perceptions have become so skewed in the other direction. People really need to understand that the only real limit on government spending is resources. So the availability of bricks and building materials can affect how much can be spent on building stuff, for instance, and if too much money, through higher benefits and wages, is chasing too few things you get inflation. On the other hand, if too much money ends up in the hands of too few people and others are limited in spending through low income, because there are limits on how much one person can and wishes to consume, this imbalance tends to lead to recession and deflation. When thought of in this way the traditional economic wisdom of the need for government to step in and put money into the pockets of the poorest in order to promote a return to growth becomes kind of obvious. Although when you throw in low interest rates and how this can cause property asset inflation suddenly it doesn't seem quite so simple after all

[AnatolyKasparov]

Murphy and Wren Lewis disagree on Labour's approach to an immediate Corporation Tax hike, though!

[Willow904]

Murphy and Wren Lewis disagree on Labour's approach to an immediate Corporation Tax hike, though!

Do they? I thought Wren-Lewis agreed that economically speaking (any) tax rises are not a good idea if the country is in or near recession. It may not be the right approach politically, but I get the economic reasons for Labour's position.

As always there's a difference between reversing something and not doing it in the first place. It's perfectly reasonable to oppose reducing corporation tax when the economy is growing but to also oppose raising them when the economy is reeling from Brexit and covid.

The idea that large multinational corporations will be doing the heavy lifting with these rises rather than smaller domestic businesses is a nice story for Boris to tell but seems unrealistic given their long-standing history of avoiding paying what they're supposed to. The price may well be paid by workers in the shape of lower pay and conditions as businesses seek to maintain profits.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Murphy disagrees strongly with Wren Lewis on that, yes. So much so he claimed Labour's stated position means it is not a left wing party any more

[Willow904]

In the Wren-Lewis article linked above he says the following and in terms of economics and the need for a full and balanced economy, it's just sensible, really :

"Raising corporation tax makes sense when the recovery is complete, but there is a strong economic case not to anticipate or pre-announce this"

It's all about investment and given our precarious post-Brexit position, it's rather reckless imo

[howsillyofme1]

Speaking about the UK only here, we have

No functioning test and trace system

No support for people to stay at home when they have symptoms, probably the biggest failure of all

No support for schools to provide more space, better ventilation etc

No sanction on employers failing to make workplaces secure, no involvement of the HSE.


Others can probably think of more failures.


In this country lockdown is all we have and if we didn't have it I could see nothing to prevent us from going the same way as Manaus, until the vaccines were rolled out.


I should add a caveat that the Welsh and Scottish govts have done better on some of those measures.

And I'm not familiar with the Scottish regulations but in England your friend would be able to support his parents.

There is no European country with a functioning Track and Trace system - over here they abandoned it months ago

Schools been back since last May, wife is a teacher, and can't remember seeing a big investment in ventilation or space creation. No major outbreaks

I agree on the point of people not being able to stay home with symptoms but in much of the world it is the same as the Governments can't afford it and I am not convinced employers on the continent have been subject to many sanctions

Why Manaus as an example, why not Sweden? We are never allowed to mention Sweden.....many of the countries with strictest lockdown have terrible figures but then there is always a reason why. UK lockdown has been one of the strictest. Could it be lockdowns make no difference as is likely seeing no-one can produce evidence otherwise! Do we really know what is happening in Manaus and what the reasons were?

[gilsey]

Murphy is not an economist, and Wren-Lewis isn't opposed to windfall taxes, because they relate to the past.

The point is that whether we like it or not, current and future corporation tax rates form part of the basis for the investment decisions of any company, large or small. Why would you want to make even a marginal negative difference, in our current circs?

I'm not sure yet why Labour are adopting this position though, are they going all out against the prevailing orthodoxy or are they just trying to ingratiate themselves with business? By doing the former, they'd get the latter as a bonus imo.

Discussion thread with Coppola taking on most of the arguments.

https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/sta ... 2992258050" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Love this

(((Frances Schadenfreude Coppola)))
@Frances_Coppola
Replying to
@nickshaxson

@haajmen
and 4 others
No, Nick, higher revenue doesn't open space for pro-poor spending by a Tory government. It opens space for handouts to cronies and reducing the deficit to placate Tory party donors worried about inflation.

[gilsey]

As for inflation, we should be so lucky, let's wait until we can see the white of its eyes.

[RogerOThornhill]

The post today had a letter asking me to book in for a jab.

But when I got back from our daily walk and thought I would register online...GP surgery phoned and made an appointment for tomorrow!

Obviously looking at the 60+ group now...

[RogerOThornhill]

There was an absolutely wonderful letter from the Chair of the Bar Council to Jon Holbrook about his online activity.

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/sta ... 0551164932" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And you must read the slap hat DAG gave to some barrister called Evan Price...

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Why Manaus as an example, why not Sweden? We are never allowed to mention Sweden.....many of the countries with strictest lockdown have terrible figures but then there is always a reason why. UK lockdown has been one of the strictest. Could it be lockdowns make no difference as is likely seeing no-one can produce evidence otherwise! Do we really know what is happening in Manaus and what the reasons were?

Let's talk about Sweden then shall we? When it comes to deaths attributed to Covid 19 Sweden has a higher number than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined. When populations are taken into account this means Sweden has a death rate four times higher than its neighbours. And you're trying to use it as an example that lockdowns don't work? Unbelievable. Norway, Denmark and Finland all had lockdowns and all demonstrably dealt with the virus much better than Sweden has. It seems crazy to me that lockdown sceptics would even mention Sweden, especially as their infection rate continues to rise and last weekend their Prime Minister warned if this carries on they would have to enforce (guess what?) a lockdown.

Also it may have escaped your notice but the UK has not been in continuous lockdown since last March. The first was eased in June to be replaced by an entirely useless regional approach which completely failed to protect against the utterly predictable rise in infections once the Summer was over. A rise, I may add, that all prominent lockdown sceptics assured us would not happen. At this point, while our government were listening to fools like Gupta and Heneghan and ignoring the recommendations of Sage, the infection rate was allowed to rise exponentially until at the beginning of November they were forced to instigate a four week national lockdown. This was lifted at the beginning of December only to be reinstated a fortnight later when it became clear the UK had birthed its very own more infectious variant that was rapidly spreading throughout the country and abroad. So in fact England specifically was not under lockdown for 5 months during the Summer and Autumn and it was towards the end of this time that infection rates grew so high a new more virulent variant emerged in a part of the country with the least restrictions. This Kent variant was first detected in September, precisely when Sage were calling for a 'circuit breaker' lockdown but our Government decided to listen to Gupta and Heneghan instead. This proved to be an extremely foolish decision which has cost tens of thousands of lives.

[tinyclanger2]

\ /
_O_
/ \

Ray of sunshine emoticon.

[AnatolyKasparov]

And that's even without Johnson's blethering about "saving Christmas". To take but one example.

[howsillyofme1]

Why Manaus as an example, why not Sweden? We are never allowed to mention Sweden.....many of the countries with strictest lockdown have terrible figures but then there is always a reason why. UK lockdown has been one of the strictest. Could it be lockdowns make no difference as is likely seeing no-one can produce evidence otherwise! Do we really know what is happening in Manaus and what the reasons were?

Let's talk about Sweden then shall we? When it comes to deaths attributed to Covid 19 Sweden has a higher number than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined. When populations are taken into account this means Sweden has a death rate four times higher than its neighbours. And you're trying to use it as an example that lockdowns don't work? Unbelievable. Norway, Denmark and Finland all had lockdowns and all demonstrably dealt with the virus much better than Sweden has. It seems crazy to me that lockdown sceptics would even mention Sweden, especially as their infection rate continues to rise and last weekend their Prime Minister warned if this carries on they would have to enforce (guess what?) a lockdown.

Also it may have escaped your notice but the UK has not been in continuous lockdown since last March. The first was eased in June to be replaced by an entirely useless regional approach which completely failed to protect against the utterly predictable rise in infections once the Summer was over. A rise, I may add, that all prominent lockdown sceptics assured us would not happen. At this point, while our government were listening to fools like Gupta and Heneghan and ignoring the recommendations of Sage, the infection rate was allowed to rise exponentially until at the beginning of November they were forced to instigate a four week national lockdown. This was lifted at the beginning of December only to be reinstated a fortnight later when it became clear the UK had birthed its very own more infectious variant that was rapidly spreading throughout the country and abroad. So in fact England specifically was not under lockdown for 5 months during the Summer and Autumn and it was towards the end of this time that infection rates grew so high a new more virulent variant emerged in a part of the country with the least restrictions. This Kent variant was first detected in September, precisely when Sage were calling for a 'circuit breaker' lockdown but our Government decided to listen to Gupta and Heneghan instead. This proved to be an extremely foolish decision which has cost tens of thousands of lives.

Okay let us take these one by one - you have jumped on Sweden with the only comparison being against other countries relatively close....is that a valid comparison or is it just cherry-picked data to support your contention? Are the countries all comparable? Are there variables other than lockdown that could explain these results? Sweden is also a different country in many ways from its neighbours, being very urbanised and so there are many more effects that may need to be taken into account

Again, you make a comment like 'unbelievable' which again supports my contention that you are in no way objective and are so full of certainty. As I have said before comparisons across countries are not an easy thing to do and the only real measure that would really have value is the excess deaths from all causes and even then it will take a long tome to decipher it

If you also look at the Oxford stringency data you will find that there was not much difference in lockdowns over 2020 between Sweden and its neighbours

https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/stringency-map" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Perhaps it is a little bit more believable when you actually bother to look at the data......I can easily accept lockdown may have some value in delaying transmission but I would also say they are unsustainable for long periods of time and have many consequent effects that may well outweigh the benefits

I go back to the 2019 WHO pandemic planning that ruled out lockdown and I would again ask you to say why you are so full of vitriol against those that actually were trying to follow it - and where did you get your absolute confidence in the benefits of lockdown?

I refer you to my point above where we seem to have the case

Extremist: Shield the vulnerable as best as possible and give then the necessary support. Allow the rest to have as much freedom as possible to keep the economic and social life of the country moving

Moderate: Lockdown the whole population for months at a time. Make it illegal to travel outside specified areas. Make it illegal to meet friends and family. Close all borders based on 'foreign variants'. At one time put healthy people under house arrest when they come into the county (there was an assessment of this by a lawyer int he autumn saying that it was the most draconian act against the population outside wartime).

And yet you can still not prove to me that the 'moderate' action works and does not have any consequential effect.s Yes, the 'extremist' view may be utopian but I am sure a better way than lockdown could have been found. The desire for those supposedly on the left to support this has left me dumbfounded. I will not forget this

On the lockdown easing over the summer, the idea that this was led by people like Heneghan is laughable. In Switzerland we released far quicker than the UK and it was the same over much of Europe - was that their influence too? I think you will also find a lot of the sceptics were talking about seasonality and were actually not convinced that the reduction in March/April was due to lockdown but rather the virus going into limbo during the summer as is the case with many respiratory viruses - what they could not say was the magnitude of it coming back into the winter.

I find your diatribe so full of holes and so much certainty based on very little apart from your own bias and blaming everything on a couple of scientists who have very little influence, but at the same time completely exonerating those supporting lockdowns.

I do not say Covid is not serious, I do not say we should have done nothing - what I say is that lockdown was/is an extreme response, compounded by the fact that a year later there is no other approach. I also say that there is a whiff of xenophobia in the 'foreign variant' claims and that the 'liberal' media is fanning the flames of fear that can be seen in the Guardian today with a number of stories that are misleading at best, or downright untruths at worst. And we again see out favourite anthropologist and nutrition expert with no real medial or scientific qualifications giving her non-expert views on a wide-ranging number of topics whilst comparing Covid to measles!

But of course it is all the fault of Heneghan and Gupta

[tinyclanger2]

You know what? The world is bad enough as it is thanks.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

And that's even without Johnson's blethering about "saving Christmas". To take but one example.

Or insisting schools would open then closing them the next day. It took the buffoon 10 months and 100,000 dead to learn caution. Something many of his fellow travellers on the libertarian right seem singularly unwilling to do.

[howsillyofme1]

And that's even without Johnson's blethering about "saving Christmas". To take but one example.

Or insisting schools would open then closing them the next day. It took the buffoon 10 months and 100,000 dead to learn caution. Something many of his fellow travellers on the libertarian right seem singularly unwilling to do.

Schools open here since May. Caution for opening up, why not caution for keeping them locked down and when would you open up if not now?

Opposing lockdown being seen as synonymous withe libertarian right is a rather saddening opinion but perhaps says a lot about the state of the left

[AnatolyKasparov]

There are some on the left who have become "lock down everything forever" enthusiasts, yes.

I am not one of them, and FWIW think a serious pursuit of "zero Covid" is impractical in a country like ours.

But the "let the virus take its course" merchants repelled me last spring, and still do.

[howsillyofme1]

There are some on the left who have become "lock down everything forever" enthusiasts, yes.

I am not one of them, and FWIW think a serious pursuit of "zero Covid" is impractical in a country like ours.

But the "let the virus take its course" merchants repelled me last spring, and still do.

Very few people I have seen advocate 'let it rip' - it is lockdown that is the issue for many of us

Saying that being open will not suppress the virus so people would die as they do from many diseases. Public health is about balancing the risks across society and it is impossible to balance risk if you do take into account consequences

The public health impact of lockdown has been ignored and is still being so

I find the 'let it rip' approach repellent but it is extreme and I have seen few really espousing it. I also find zerocovid repellent and that is more mainstream and allowed free reign and is now being supported by vaccine-scepticism and 'variant-fear'. Most positivity is coming from lockdown sceptics who see the vaccines as the real way out of this, me included, and yet we are still seeing arguments over opening up and borders being closed indefinitely

Mind you, lockdown has a 'let it rip' approach to those who have to work in the delivery centres and other essential services to allow the middle classes to bake bananas bread, learn languages and work on Zoom - I also find that repellent

[Willow904]

I think we have a problem in the UK of not being able to think long term. Tory governments in particular are very guilty of this and covid has highlighted this problem in very much the same way it has highlighted many other societal problems in which the UK are proving to be world leaders.

Essentially, the areas to spend money in combating covid should be the areas where such measures can be sustained long term. When the pandemic gets completely out of control, as it has twice now in the UK, there's no choice but to lockdown to get it back under control in the short term, in the absence of other measures, but I do agree it's a very blunt instrument and an effective government would be putting money and effort into longterm sustainable solutions to prevent the virus running out of control again. It's because the government isn't necessarily coming up with these longterm solutions and/or actively avoiding implementing them that many people in the UK are so nervous and worried about coming out of lockdown. It's understandable. We have a government that constantly lies and flips from one approach to another. From talk of laissez-faire one minute to draconian fines for accidentally breaking rules the next, a trail of broken promises and countless assertions and claims that prove false. No wonder no one trusts this government to keep them safe and prefer to remain cocooned, especially when the simplest and most effective measures are resisted. Methods such as ensuring everyone who needs to isolate is able to afford to and that money to support them when ill so they don't need to go to work is simple and easy to access. One year on our inadequate sickness benefits still haven't been addressed - presumably because this would have to become a permanent measure rather than the short-term sledgehammer of furlough which can be turned off at any time.

Vaccines, at least, will hopefully be an effective part of a long-term approach that can and will be sustained as long as necessary and the short-termism of our government will become less of an issue, as far as covid is concerned at least, as it moves into the sphere of general healthcare and away from frontline politics. We can but hope because having Boris as PM during a national crisis has been just about as shit as you can imagine it would be........and then some!

[howsillyofme1]

I think we have a problem in the UK of not being able to think long term. Tory governments in particular are very guilty of this and covid has highlighted this problem in very much the same way it has highlighted many other societal problems in which the UK are proving to be world leaders.

Essentially, the areas to spend money in combating covid should be the areas where such measures can be sustained long term. When the pandemic gets completely out of control, as it has twice now in the UK, there's no choice but to lockdown to get it back under control in the short term, in the absence of other measures, but I do agree it's a very blunt instrument and an effective government would be putting money and effort into longterm sustainable solutions to prevent the virus running out of control again. It's because the government isn't necessarily coming up with these longterm solutions and/or actively avoiding implementing them that many people in the UK are so nervous and worried about coming out of lockdown. It's understandable. We have a government that constantly lies and flips from one approach to another. From talk of laissez-faire one minute to draconian fines for accidentally breaking rules the next, a trail of broken promises and countless assertions and claims that prove false. No wonder no one trusts this government to keep them safe and prefer to remain cocooned, especially when the simplest and most effective measures are resisted. Methods such as ensuring everyone who needs to isolate is able to afford to and that money to support them when ill so they don't need to go to work is simple and easy to access. One year on our inadequate sickness benefits still haven't been addressed - presumably because this would have to become a permanent measure rather than the short-term sledgehammer of furlough which can be turned off at any time.

Vaccines, at least, will hopefully be an effective part of a long-term approach that can and will be sustained as long as necessary and the short-termism of our government will become less of an issue, as far as covid is concerned at least, as it moves into the sphere of general healthcare and away from frontline politics. We can but hope because having Boris as PM during a national crisis has been just about as shit as you can imagine it would be........and then some!

I have sympathy for much of this - still not convinced by lockdown - and the long term thinking has definitely been missing

I would say though that looking in from abroad the anglo-centric view should not hide from the fact that we have seen the same incompetence across the Western world - look at the disaster of Merkel and Macron on the vaccine - something that could have far reaching repercussions far worse than Johnson. It is undermining the EU I can tell you with complete despair and fracturing of confidence

Johnson is shit but on vaccines he has actually done much better than over here where we are moving at a glacial pace - politicians all over the democratic world have lost control

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Okay let us take these one by one - you have jumped on Sweden with the only comparison being against other countries relatively close....is that a valid comparison or is it just cherry-picked data to support your contention? Are the countries all comparable? Are there variables other than lockdown that could explain these results? Sweden is also a different country in many ways from its neighbours, being very urbanised and so there are many more effects that may need to be taken into account.

I'd be fascinted to hear which countries are more comparable to Sweden than Norway, Denmark and Finland. And Denmark is a great deal more 'urbanised' than Sweden. Vast swathes of Sweden are barely inhabited. The simple, unarguable fact is that Sweden took a different approach to dealing with Covid 19 than its neighbours which has resulted in it having a death rate higher than all of them combined. There's no escaping that fact no matter how hard you wriggle.

Again, you make a comment like 'unbelievable' which again supports my contention that you are in no way objective and are so full of certainty.

I'm certain people who wilfully ignore facts that don't suit their ideological narrative are fools. No better than Trump supporters denying the results of an election.

I go back to the 2019 WHO pandemic planning that ruled out lockdown and I would again ask you to say why you are so full of vitriol against those that actually were trying to follow it.

This is simply untrue. The WHO said lockdowns should be a matter of last resort, not that they should be ruled out.

I find your diatribe so full of holes and so much certainty based on very little apart from your own bias and blaming everything on a couple of scientists who have very little influence, but at the same time completely exonerating those supporting lockdowns.

Very little influence? They were directly advising the UK government who took that advice instead of the recommendations of Sage with tragic consequences for countless people and their families.

I do not say Covid is not serious, I do not say we should have done nothing - what I say is that lockdown was/is an extreme response

Yes we all get that, I just happen to think you are wrong. You've taken an ideological position and are blinded by it. You accuse me of bias and yes I am biased, we all are, but at least I'm aware of it and acknowledge it whereas you seem incapable of doing the same. I'm as liberal as you are, I hate lockdowns, but sometimes reality insists you curb your political instincts for the public good. You've sneeringly called us 'authoritarian' but people like me will be the first to fight against any of these government emergency powers becoming permanent in any way, shape or form. There's a vast chasm of difference between being authoritarian and being pragmatic during an unprecedented pandemic and if you took your ideological blinkers off you might be able to see that. But as you seem singularly unwilling to do so I'm going to draw this conversation to a close because I can see no use in continuing it any further.

[howsillyofme1]

Okay let us take these one by one - you have jumped on Sweden with the only comparison being against other countries relatively close....is that a valid comparison or is it just cherry-picked data to support your contention? Are the countries all comparable? Are there variables other than lockdown that could explain these results? Sweden is also a different country in many ways from its neighbours, being very urbanised and so there are many more effects that may need to be taken into account.

I'd be fascinted to hear which countries are more comparable to Sweden than Norway, Denmark and Finland. And Denmark is a great deal more 'urbanised' than Sweden. Vast swathes of Sweden are barely inhabited. The simple, unarguable fact is that Sweden took a different approach to dealing with Covid 19 than its neighbours which has resulted in it having a death rate higher than all of them combined. There's no escaping that fact no matter how hard you wriggle.

Again, you make a comment like 'unbelievable' which again supports my contention that you are in no way objective and are so full of certainty.

I'm certain people who wilfully ignore facts that don't suit their ideological narrative are fools. No better than Trump supporters denying the results of an election.

I go back to the 2019 WHO pandemic planning that ruled out lockdown and I would again ask you to say why you are so full of vitriol against those that actually were trying to follow it.

This is simply untrue. The WHO said lockdowns should be a matter of last resort, not that they should be ruled out.

I find your diatribe so full of holes and so much certainty based on very little apart from your own bias and blaming everything on a couple of scientists who have very little influence, but at the same time completely exonerating those supporting lockdowns.

Very little influence? They were directly advising the UK government who took that advice instead of the recommendations of Sage with tragic consequences for countless people and their families.

I do not say Covid is not serious, I do not say we should have done nothing - what I say is that lockdown was/is an extreme response

Yes we all get that, I just happen to think you are wrong. You've taken an ideological position and are blinded by it. You accuse me of bias and yes I am biased, we all are, but at least I'm aware of it and acknowledge it whereas you seem incapable of doing the same. I'm as liberal as you are, I hate lockdowns, but sometimes reality insists you curb your political instincts for the public good. You've sneeringly called us 'authoritarian' but people like me will be the first to fight against any of these government emergency powers becoming permanent in any way, shape or form. There's a vast chasm of difference between being authoritarian and being pragmatic during an unprecedented pandemic and if you took your ideological blinkers off you might be able to see that. But as you seem singularly unwilling to do so I'm going to draw this conversation to a close because I can see no use in continuing it any further.

I am a scientist and I have looked at the data and evidence and draw my conclusions based on that

My position is we had a WHO pandemic plan in 2019 and we have jettisoned it in favour of an unproven and potentially very damaging approach from lockdown.

If you support authoritarian policies then you are an authoritarian in my eyes - if that offends you I am sorry but the fact you have embraced this approach and dismiss quite violently any other approach that is more liberal

I come back to my approach - justify locking down rather than justify opening up....look at the arguments going on about schools now and other people on your side of the argument arguing for the anal swabbing of children and compulsory masks

I have provided evidence of the poor quality of the evidence for mask effectiveness but still no criticism of those who have been advocating non medical masks. your vitriol checked at Heneghan for promoting good hygiene and you confidence in dismissing of fomite transfer of the virus when it was the main focus of all at the beginning

You may see me as the ideological one and i admit it - I despise authoritarianism and I do not accept its introduction on such lousy evidence

[howsillyofme1]

Okay let us take these one by one - you have jumped on Sweden with the only comparison being against other countries relatively close....is that a valid comparison or is it just cherry-picked data to support your contention? Are the countries all comparable? Are there variables other than lockdown that could explain these results? Sweden is also a different country in many ways from its neighbours, being very urbanised and so there are many more effects that may need to be taken into account.

I'd be fascinted to hear which countries are more comparable to Sweden than Norway, Denmark and Finland. And Denmark is a great deal more 'urbanised' than Sweden. Vast swathes of Sweden are barely inhabited. The simple, unarguable fact is that Sweden took a different approach to dealing with Covid 19 than its neighbours which has resulted in it having a death rate higher than all of them combined. There's no escaping that fact no matter how hard you wriggle.

Again, you make a comment like 'unbelievable' which again supports my contention that you are in no way objective and are so full of certainty.

I'm certain people who wilfully ignore facts that don't suit their ideological narrative are fools. No better than Trump supporters denying the results of an election.

I go back to the 2019 WHO pandemic planning that ruled out lockdown and I would again ask you to say why you are so full of vitriol against those that actually were trying to follow it.

This is simply untrue. The WHO said lockdowns should be a matter of last resort, not that they should be ruled out.

I find your diatribe so full of holes and so much certainty based on very little apart from your own bias and blaming everything on a couple of scientists who have very little influence, but at the same time completely exonerating those supporting lockdowns.

Very little influence? They were directly advising the UK government who took that advice instead of the recommendations of Sage with tragic consequences for countless people and their families.

I do not say Covid is not serious, I do not say we should have done nothing - what I say is that lockdown was/is an extreme response

Yes we all get that, I just happen to think you are wrong. You've taken an ideological position and are blinded by it. You accuse me of bias and yes I am biased, we all are, but at least I'm aware of it and acknowledge it whereas you seem incapable of doing the same. I'm as liberal as you are, I hate lockdowns, but sometimes reality insists you curb your political instincts for the public good. You've sneeringly called us 'authoritarian' but people like me will be the first to fight against any of these government emergency powers becoming permanent in any way, shape or form. There's a vast chasm of difference between being authoritarian and being pragmatic during an unprecedented pandemic and if you took your ideological blinkers off you might be able to see that. But as you seem singularly unwilling to do so I'm going to draw this conversation to a close because I can see no use in continuing it any further.

On Sweden, your only argument seems to be that they are close together geographically and that nothing else matters - there are no other variables that could possibly be involved. I find this incredibly simplistic and if you tried to make that argument you would get laughed at.....

I think you will find Gupta and Heneghan had very little 'advising' to do and I don't belief they advised all the countries in Europe that exited lockdown well before the UK. Scientific advice to theGovernment has been weak in all areas and the behaviour of some of the scientists on SAGE and that self-appointed bunch on iSAGE has been pretty reprehensible and there are a lot of scientists who are disillusioned by their behaviour. The scientific establishment - which I know well- is as political as any there is and the power over grants is a good nullifier of dissent

Please refrain from calling something I say untrue without checking back - this seems to be a common approach to your posts - very definite when you seem not to have a clue. The WHO's behaviour and changing of position has been one of the other great sadnesses of this year - yes they have changed their views based on no evidence but I referred you back to the 2019 pandemic plan

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/han ... g.pdf?ua=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes this is based on influenza and I am not claiming that Covid is the same but there are a number of behavioural aspects that are and just saying 'it is not flu' really is not an argument. Both mainly airborne, both enveloped viruses and both have similar IFR and CFR assumptions

I will just ignore your comment about 'Trump' supporters - all I would say is I have seen no evidence from you to back up your assertions

Lockdown is an extreme policy and has never been advocated as an NPI before 2020 - in order to justify extreme policies I would expect to see good analysis and impact assessments available

Many countries have also instigated no or very weak lockdowns and the outcomes do not seem to have any correlation to stringency - correlation is not causation but non correlation definitely rules out causation.

Your view is without lockdowns things would have been much worse - my challenge is that if it so obvious that any dissent is 'unbelievable' show me the evidence that must be so easy to find? It has to be consistent over multiple data sets across multiple regions. Or is it that lockdown seems to be 'common sense' so we should just do it anyway?

[Sky'sGoneOut]

.

[Willow904]

I would say though that looking in from abroad the anglo-centric view should not hide from the fact that we have seen the same incompetence across the Western world

I'm not talking about policy decisions and their outcomes. Scotland has followed similar policies and had roughly similar outcomes. I'd far, far rather have been living in Scotland throughout this, however, because the communication from their leadership has been clear, calm and measured. Policies have been properly briefed and explained in a respectful manner to the general public, rather than leaked in a colourful and hysterical manner via the right-wing press as we've had to endure here. The constant stress and uncertainty generated by Boris' constant swinging in the wind, kite-flying and nudge theory psychological manipulation, all for narrow political advantage has been harrowing. Not knowing whether schools are going to be open or closed until 8pm the night before, as happened in January, is a good example of how Boris' behaviour has repeatedly made a difficult situation worse. Parents in Scotland meanwhile knew their children would be moving to home learning before Christmas. It may seem a small point, but these things matter to ordinary people who need to organize childcare, etc.

As for the vaccine situation - because we're running a different roll-out programme to everywhere else it's not yet entirely clear how we are doing in relation to elsewhere but certainly the NHS with it's national register of patients does seem particularly well suited this sort of challenge. And yes, on this occasion, Boris' talent for throwing money at things does appear to have paid off.

[howsillyofme1]

I would say though that looking in from abroad the anglo-centric view should not hide from the fact that we have seen the same incompetence across the Western world

I'm not talking about policy decisions and their outcomes. Scotland has followed similar policies and had roughly similar outcomes. I'd far, far rather have been living in Scotland throughout this, however, because the communication from their leadership has been clear, calm and measured. Policies have been properly briefed and explained in a respectful manner to the general public, rather than leaked in a colourful and hysterical manner via the right-wing press as we've had to endure here. The constant stress and uncertainty generated by Boris' constant swinging in the wind, kite-flying and nudge theory psychological manipulation, all for narrow political advantage has been harrowing. Not knowing whether schools are going to be open or closed until 8pm the night before, as happened in January, is a good example of how Boris' behaviour has repeatedly made a difficult situation worse. Parents in Scotland meanwhile knew their children would be moving to home learning before Christmas. It may seem a small point, but these things matter to ordinary people who need to organize childcare, etc.

As for the vaccine situation - because we're running a different roll-out programme to everywhere else it's not yet entirely clear how we are doing in relation to elsewhere but certainly the NHS with it's national register of patients does seem particularly well suited this sort of challenge. And yes, on this occasion, Boris' talent for throwing money at things does appear to have paid off.

Listening to the invective coming from my Scottish friends today I would say the 'clear communication' from Sturgeon is not being quite so well received as it was and her desire for complete suppression is not going down well - all anecdotal though but policy decisions d matter

I am in no way defending the UKG and their incompetence in communication is clear and is not helped by SAGE scientists briefing against Government decisions. The scientists do not make policy and they never should as their expertise (by definition) is narrow.

When this is all over though it is the policy decisions that will matter and the decisions taken during this that will have huge repercussions on the future......what will society be like afterwards and how will we react to the next potential health scare.

Governments now know that lockdowns are accepted and I am sure it has not gone unnoticed......and the ability to close down borders because of 'foreign variants' may prove very useful in the future too....i already see Patel is suggesting large scale demos could be a thing of the past

[tinyclanger2]

It is not flu. This isn't an "argument". It's simply a fact.

[AnatolyKasparov]

There are some on the left who have become "lock down everything forever" enthusiasts, yes.

I am not one of them, and FWIW think a serious pursuit of "zero Covid" is impractical in a country like ours.

But the "let the virus take its course" merchants repelled me last spring, and still do.

Very few people I have seen advocate 'let it rip'

Plenty in our media from Toady Young downwards.

[refitman]

There are some on the left who have become "lock down everything forever" enthusiasts, yes.

I am not one of them, and FWIW think a serious pursuit of "zero Covid" is impractical in a country like ours.

But the "let the virus take its course" merchants repelled me last spring, and still do.

Very few people I have seen advocate 'let it rip'

Plenty in our media from Toady Young downwards.

Johnson, right at the beginning. He said just that on TV.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Johnson, right at the beginning. He said just that on TV.

Yes, February last year he gave a speech saying we would 'take it on the chin' then when other less valiant countries locked down we would swoop in and take advantage of them economically as bastions of free trade. I believe he likened the country to Superman. What a dick.

[tinyclanger2]

.

Not sure about your punctuation. PF?