Wednesday 5th November 2014

[refitman]

Morning all.

[HindleA]

Morning all.

Morning.

[HindleA]

Unsurprisingly,the Republicans took control of the Senate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29910542" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Morning!

Boo to the Republicans

Slightly better news from Yougov with the polls inching back in a more promising direction

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 4th November - Con 32%, Lab 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%; APP -21

[StephenDolan]

Morning all.

Those dirty feckless foreigners hey?

UK gains £20bn from European migrants, UCL economists reveal

http://gu.com/p/4338d" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Spacedone]

Morning all.

Those dirty feckless foreigners hey?

UK gains £20bn from European migrants, UCL economists reveal

http://gu.com/p/4338d" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll see your evidence and facts and raise you a "my mate down the pub knows about an immigrant family that don't work but came over here and took all our jobs and they live in a mansion FOR FREE and they're taking all our money and giving nothing back!"

Ha! I win! My completely made-up fact trumps your actual real fact in any British immigration debate.


Peston's blog on this seems to have a little more detail than the Guardian article.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29906592" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lonewolfie]

Morning all.

Those dirty feckless foreigners hey?

UK gains £20bn from European migrants, UCL economists reveal

http://gu.com/p/4338d" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll see your evidence and facts and raise you a "my mate down the pub knows about an immigrant family that don't work but came over here and took all our jobs and they live in a mansion FOR FREE and they're taking all our money and giving nothing back!"

Ha! I win! My completely made-up fact trumps your actual real fact in any British immigration debate.


Peston's blog on this seems to have a little more detail than the Guardian article.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29906592" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll raise you the factually evidenced and totally unbiased and truthful anecdotal comment relating to 'Pienaars Politics' on Sunday...I offer a transcript of the conversation between Pienaar and (another fully democratically accountable and not-biased-in-any-way Government Advisor) Sir Lord Shiny Wonderperson Andrew Green (not verbatim, natch )

Pienaar: The polls show that people are worried about immigration, whereas the statistics show that it is actually not much of a problem (quotes a few figures)

Green: The truth is that no-one really knows what the figures are - of course it's a problem (otherwise, why would I now be a super-important extra-shiny superior-ness?)

Pienaar: (No challenge on the lack of anything substantial in the reply) OK - so we don't trust the figures or evidence, 'cos you're one of Daves' Shiny Special Wonderpeople

Green: That's right, I am a shiny wonderperson (little audible smirk)...so...it's like this...there are 250,000 furrinners coming into the country every year and when that's been happening for 20 years, in 20 years that'll be the population of London of extra furrinners...so you see, that's why I'm an extra shiny super superior wonder-person.

Dunno about you, but I'm convinced

Anyway, the N***graph is telling the real story...of course, everyone will be shocked to hear that...IT'S ALL LABOURS FAULT (can you hear me at the back?) - I SAID - IT'S ALL LABOURS FAULT

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... llion.html

[PorFavor]

Good morning.

Ukip ditches its candidate for Portsmouth South

Roger Bird, general secretary of Ukip, confirmed to The News that Douglas Denny was no longer the prospective parliamentary candidate (PPC) following a decision by the party’s national executive committee (NEC).

Mr Bird added similar deselections had taken place in other constituencies.

He said: ‘It’s a more routine event than it might otherwise feel.

‘Internally we don’t see it as being serious or malicious or disciplinary. It’s simply a process which the party goes through.’

Mr Denny was not available for comment.

Funny way to carry on. Surely there must be a reason other than "because we feel like it".

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ ... -1-6397684

[PaulfromYorkshire]

4th November 2014

Fawcett Society update on allegations about the Whistles for Fawcett feminist T-shirt

Eva Neitzert, Deputy CEO of the Fawcett Society, said:

We are pleased to confirm that we have today seen expansive and current evidence from Whistles that the CMT factory in Mauritius they used to produce our ‘This is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirt conforms to ethical standards.

We have been particularly pleased to receive evidence that:

- 100% of workers are paid above the government-mandated minimum wage and all workers are paid according to their skills and years of service.

- The standard working week is 45 hours, and workers are compensated (at a higher rate of pay) for any overtime worked.

- There is a high retention of staff and employees are offered training and development.

- An audit into the CMT factory was carried out in October 2014 by an independent not-for-profit organisation and this did not reveal any material concerns on the working conditions, the welfare or the health and safety of workers.

- Workers are able to join a union and there is a union presence in the factory.

The evidence we have seen categorically refutes the assertion that the ‘This is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirts produced by Whistles were made in a sweatshop.

Whilst we have confidence in the evidence provided to us, we are currently working closely with an international trade union body to scrutinise it so that we can be absolutely assured of its provenance, authenticity and that all findings are robust and factual.

Further, whilst Fawcett has a UK remit, we are nonetheless acutely concerned with the inequalities women across the globe face. We recognise that investment in developing countries is vital and support this provided decent labour standards are adhered to.

We will continue to work with Elle and Whistles on this project.

http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/2014/1 ... t-t-shirt/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lonewolfie]

Good morning.

Ukip ditches its candidate for Portsmouth South

Roger Bird, general secretary of Ukip, confirmed to The News that Douglas Denny was no longer the prospective parliamentary candidate (PPC) following a decision by the party’s national executive committee (NEC).

Mr Bird added similar deselections had taken place in other constituencies.

He said: ‘It’s a more routine event than it might otherwise feel.

‘Internally we don’t see it as being serious or malicious or disciplinary. It’s simply a process which the party goes through.’

Mr Denny was not available for comment.

Funny way to carry on. Surely there must be a reason other than "because we feel like it".

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ ... -1-6397684

Maybe they've got a high profile ship-jumper to parachute in?

[PorFavor]

4th November 2014

Fawcett Society update on allegations about the Whistles for Fawcett feminist T-shirt

Eva Neitzert, Deputy CEO of the Fawcett Society, said:

We are pleased to confirm that we have today seen expansive and current evidence from Whistles that the CMT factory in Mauritius they used to produce our ‘This is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirt conforms to ethical standards.

We have been particularly pleased to receive evidence that:

- 100% of workers are paid above the government-mandated minimum wage and all workers are paid according to their skills and years of service.

- The standard working week is 45 hours, and workers are compensated (at a higher rate of pay) for any overtime worked.

- There is a high retention of staff and employees are offered training and development.

- An audit into the CMT factory was carried out in October 2014 by an independent not-for-profit organisation and this did not reveal any material concerns on the working conditions, the welfare or the health and safety of workers.

- Workers are able to join a union and there is a union presence in the factory.

The evidence we have seen categorically refutes the assertion that the ‘This is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirts produced by Whistles were made in a sweatshop.

Whilst we have confidence in the evidence provided to us, we are currently working closely with an international trade union body to scrutinise it so that we can be absolutely assured of its provenance, authenticity and that all findings are robust and factual.

Further, whilst Fawcett has a UK remit, we are nonetheless acutely concerned with the inequalities women across the globe face. We recognise that investment in developing countries is vital and support this provided decent labour standards are adhered to.

We will continue to work with Elle and Whistles on this project.

http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/2014/1 ... t-t-shirt/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Guardian gives this story fairly prominent coverage (link below). Good.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... tt-society

[Lonewolfie]

4th November 2014

Fawcett Society update on allegations about the Whistles for Fawcett feminist T-shirt

Eva Neitzert, Deputy CEO of the Fawcett Society, said:

We are pleased to confirm that we have today seen expansive and current evidence from Whistles that the CMT factory in Mauritius they used to produce our ‘This is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirt conforms to ethical standards.

We have been particularly pleased to receive evidence that:

- 100% of workers are paid above the government-mandated minimum wage and all workers are paid according to their skills and years of service.

- The standard working week is 45 hours, and workers are compensated (at a higher rate of pay) for any overtime worked.

- There is a high retention of staff and employees are offered training and development.

- An audit into the CMT factory was carried out in October 2014 by an independent not-for-profit organisation and this did not reveal any material concerns on the working conditions, the welfare or the health and safety of workers.

- Workers are able to join a union and there is a union presence in the factory.

The evidence we have seen categorically refutes the assertion that the ‘This is what a feminist looks like’ T-shirts produced by Whistles were made in a sweatshop.

Whilst we have confidence in the evidence provided to us, we are currently working closely with an international trade union body to scrutinise it so that we can be absolutely assured of its provenance, authenticity and that all findings are robust and factual.

Further, whilst Fawcett has a UK remit, we are nonetheless acutely concerned with the inequalities women across the globe face. We recognise that investment in developing countries is vital and support this provided decent labour standards are adhered to.

We will continue to work with Elle and Whistles on this project.

http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/2014/1 ... t-t-shirt/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Was it RR2 who said yesterday that the Labour Press Office should get Mr Ed interviewed by Elle magazine? It's a brilliant idea - as was said, they would take some great photos and interview him when relaxed - I'm reliably informed by sources I trust implicitly, that, in the flesh, Mr Ed is actually quite suave, debonair and dishy...so getting the demographic that read Elle and the like on-side would be very powerful (IMHO, natch).

[PorFavor]

Good morning.

Ukip ditches its candidate for Portsmouth South

Roger Bird, general secretary of Ukip, confirmed to The News that Douglas Denny was no longer the prospective parliamentary candidate (PPC) following a decision by the party’s national executive committee (NEC).

Mr Bird added similar deselections had taken place in other constituencies.

He said: ‘It’s a more routine event than it might otherwise feel.

‘Internally we don’t see it as being serious or malicious or disciplinary. It’s simply a process which the party goes through.’

Mr Denny was not available for comment.

Funny way to carry on. Surely there must be a reason other than "because we feel like it".

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ ... -1-6397684

Maybe they've got a high profile ship-jumper to parachute in?

Yes - that occurred to me, too. But if it's true that it's happening all over the shop, which is the impression Roger Bird is trying to give, how many more are there? Where? Or is he just harking back to Clacton?

[Lonewolfie]

Back to my real obsession...

pj94.PNG (54.78 KiB) Viewed 19916 times

when I opened this link, I thought it would be someone from Daniel Morgans' family or friends....but no ...

http://www.croydonadvertiser.co.uk/Metr ... story.html

...I wonder if one of the unnamed men suing is the other guy in this report? - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media ... 12702.html - oh no - silly me...he WAS the police then

...and the very much over-reported cases at the Old Bailey...

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/sun-six-t ... illionaire

http://linkis.com/ow.ly/36E9Y

...and there's a blog by Citizen Tommys' lawyer - http://tommyslawyer.co.uk/2014/11/ it's got some very interesting points...even a comment in there that the Sheridans retained his services after their previous lawyer took a job with.....drum roll...Newcorpse

[rebeccariots2]

Deal to save Milford Haven oil refinery collapses
Hundreds of jobs endangered in Wales as Murphy Oil subsidiary fails to complete sale to despite extended deadline
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014 ... apses-jobs

This is very difficult news for Wales, for the local South Pembrokeshire economy and people, and probably for Labour as this area is right in their Pembrokeshire heartland. I expect UKIP to make something of this

Murphy Oil, which has been seeking a buyer for two years, said: “The parties are not engaged in further discussions.”

A source close to the negotiations said the delay was partly due to concerns that a proposed £100m loan guarantee from the Welsh government could contravene European Union state aid rules.

and the Tories will keep quiet and let them if it helps their chances.

[rebeccariots2]

Good morning.

Ukip ditches its candidate for Portsmouth South

Roger Bird, general secretary of Ukip, confirmed to The News that Douglas Denny was no longer the prospective parliamentary candidate (PPC) following a decision by the party’s national executive committee (NEC).

Mr Bird added similar deselections had taken place in other constituencies.

He said: ‘It’s a more routine event than it might otherwise feel.

‘Internally we don’t see it as being serious or malicious or disciplinary. It’s simply a process which the party goes through.’

Mr Denny was not available for comment.

Funny way to carry on. Surely there must be a reason other than "because we feel like it".

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ ... -1-6397684

Do you think they might be getting ready to welcome Mike Hancock to the UKIP fold?

(Sorry - I know I really shouldn't enjoy that ultra disturbing thought - and it's unkind on the people of Portsmouth who have already suffered enough .... but really...)

[rebeccariots2]

Was it RR2 who said yesterday that the Labour Press Office should get Mr Ed interviewed by Elle magazine? It's a brilliant idea - as was said, they would take some great photos and interview him when relaxed - I'm reliably informed by sources I trust implicitly, that, in the flesh, Mr Ed is actually quite suave, debonair and dishy...so getting the demographic that read Elle and the like on-side would be very powerful (IMHO, natch).

It was me - and they should.

Come on peeps - show some flair, some nerve.

[rebeccariots2]

Risk of floods in England up due to cuts in government funding, say NAO
Flood defence spending has fallen by 10% over course of this government leaving half of country’s defences with ‘minimal’ maintenance, says National Audit Office report
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... ng-say-nao

Hmmmm. Wonder if anyone will question Truss about this confirmation of what everyone knew but Paterson and co denied.

She was dreadful yesterday on her defence of the latest government capitulation to farming which means less promotion of and protection for our wildlife and, in particular, bees.

The environment - and all who rely on her i.e. everything - has been terribly served by this government.

[DonutHingeParty]

Morning all.

Those dirty feckless foreigners hey?

UK gains £20bn from European migrants, UCL economists reveal

http://gu.com/p/4338d" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll see your evidence and facts and raise you a "my mate down the pub knows about an immigrant family that don't work but came over here and took all our jobs and they live in a mansion FOR FREE and they're taking all our money and giving nothing back!"

Ha! I win! My completely made-up fact trumps your actual real fact in any British immigration debate.


Peston's blog on this seems to have a little more detail than the Guardian article.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29906592" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In the same week as Boris calls for freedom of movement between Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and the UK. It would, of course, serve him right if the Inuits, Aboriginals, Maori and Bantu chose to take up this offer.

[PorFavor]

Good morning.

Ukip ditches its candidate for Portsmouth South

Roger Bird, general secretary of Ukip, confirmed to The News that Douglas Denny was no longer the prospective parliamentary candidate (PPC) following a decision by the party’s national executive committee (NEC).

Mr Bird added similar deselections had taken place in other constituencies.

He said: ‘It’s a more routine event than it might otherwise feel.

‘Internally we don’t see it as being serious or malicious or disciplinary. It’s simply a process which the party goes through.’

Mr Denny was not available for comment.

Funny way to carry on. Surely there must be a reason other than "because we feel like it".

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ ... -1-6397684

Do you think they might be getting ready to welcome Mike Hancock to the UKIP fold?

(Sorry - I know I really shouldn't enjoy that ultra disturbing thought - and it's unkind on the people of Portsmouth who have already suffered enough .... but really...)

Ha! Yes. It was. Very unkind.

[rebeccariots2]

Rafael Behr @rafaelbehr · 7m 7 minutes ago
Column: Big Lib Dem contribution to coalition has been atrophy of liberal Tories http://tinyurl.com/qdk7o8o" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and from that G article this is the opening para:

One difference between opposition and government for Liberal Democrats has been that, before coalition, no one noticed what they said; now, no one notices what they do...

Ouch, ouch.

[rebeccariots2]

Good morning.
Funny way to carry on. Surely there must be a reason other than "because we feel like it".

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ ... -1-6397684

Do you think they might be getting ready to welcome Mike Hancock to the UKIP fold?

(Sorry - I know I really shouldn't enjoy that ultra disturbing thought - and it's unkind on the people of Portsmouth who have already suffered enough .... but really...)

Ha! Yes. It was. Very unkind.

I think he might fit in very well with the UKIP offer though - no?

[rebeccariots2]

Chris Bryant @ChrisBryantMP · 27m 27 minutes ago
The Tories have put posters up for their candidate in Chatham graveyard, showing themselves to be the poor taste party again.

Chris Bryant @ChrisBryantMP · 23m 23 minutes ago
Is it true? Did @GregHands really think it right to put posters up in Chatham graveyard?

[Lonewolfie]

I think this blog post encapsulates the frustration around CSA/CSE very well (apologies, as it does contain a harrowing story on familial abuse)

http://opinionatedplanet.wordpress.com/

[gilsey]

Was it RR2 who said yesterday that the Labour Press Office should get Mr Ed interviewed by Elle magazine? It's a brilliant idea - as was said, they would take some great photos and interview him when relaxed - I'm reliably informed by sources I trust implicitly, that, in the flesh, Mr Ed is actually quite suave, debonair and dishy...so getting the demographic that read Elle and the like on-side would be very powerful (IMHO, natch).

It was me - and they should.

Come on peeps - show some flair, some nerve.

Could FTN tweet her to suggest it?

https://twitter.com/LorraineELLE

[AnatolyKasparov]

Unsurprisingly,the Republicans took control of the Senate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29910542" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Right wing pundits already telling us this is down to Obama's "extreme liberalism" (ha!) and thus spells doom for Ed Milizzzzzzzzzz..........

What did they say, I wonder, when Dubya had his arse handed to him at the same stage of the electoral cycle in 2006?

[PaulfromYorkshire]

This is remarkable

[PorFavor]

Can anyone here take at stab at explaining what he's talking about, please?

Debbie Abrahams, a Labour MP, says that 75% of the increase in employment is self-employment, and that the average income for self-employed people is £10,000 a year. The jobs are not out there, she says.

Duncan Smith says he does not accept that. More than two-thirds in the rise in self-employment comes from full-time self-employment, he says. (Andrew Sparrow, Guardian)

[TheGrimSqueaker]

This is remarkable

It is a class thing .... the Tories have proved, once again, that they don't have any!

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Labour ahead in more Conservative seats – but not by much

Yeah, but they are still ahead!!

New Ashcroft Marginals are out; the good Lord is spinning mightily (and Smithson has joined in on Twitter) but a lead is a lead. Less "bad news for Ed" more "bad news for Esther" imo.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/la ... eats-much/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[gilsey]

Can anyone here take at stab at explaining what he's talking about, please?

Debbie Abrahams, a Labour MP, says that 75% of the increase in employment is self-employment, and that the average income for self-employed people is £10,000 a year. The jobs are not out there, she says.

Duncan Smith says he does not accept that. More than two-thirds in the rise in self-employment comes from full-time self-employment, he says. (Andrew Sparrow, Guardian)

IDS 'believes' that working in full-time self-employment and earning <10k is a good thing. Obvs.

[StephenDolan]

Labour ahead in more Conservative seats – but not by much

Yeah, but they are still ahead!!

New Ashcroft Marginals are out; the good Lord is spinning mightily (and Smithson has joined in on Twitter) but a lead is a lead. Less "bad news for Ed" more "bad news for Esther" imo.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/la ... eats-much/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The spin through that piece is ridiculous, yet the figures leap out. In marginals Labour are polling better than nationally.

[AngryAsWell]

From AS Blog
Duncan Smith says if a single person becomes a couple, their claim might have to go back to manual processing.

Q: So if someone starts off simple, but becomes complex, they might have to be processed manually. How many people are in this category?

Robert Devereux says no system in the DWP is 100% electronic or manual. It would not be sensible to be rigid, he says.

If a person becomes a couple, some parts of their claim will remain automated. But conditionality factors may be processed manually


Forgive me for being numb here, but doesn't that negate the whole principal of UC ??

[gilsey]

I like this bit.

"Robert Devereux says the DWP has to agree the facts in the [NAO UC] report. It does not always agree with the NAO’s opinions."

Wouldn't be much point in the NAO if it did.

[seeingclearly]

Good Morning

Divide and Conquer the North

http://thepublicinterestsheffield.blogs ... l?spref=fb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

Labour ahead in more Conservative seats – but not by much

Yeah, but they are still ahead!!

New Ashcroft Marginals are out; the good Lord is spinning mightily (and Smithson has joined in on Twitter) but a lead is a lead. Less "bad news for Ed" more "bad news for Esther" imo.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/la ... eats-much/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The spin through that piece is ridiculous, yet the figures leap out. In marginals Labour are polling better than nationally.

Given the national polling figures, Labour ahead in 10 out of 13 isn't bad at all

Slightly surprising to see us missing out in Blackpool N - UKIP could be hurting Labour there. But nice to be ahead in Northampton, given the local Labour party has been consumed by infighting for what seems like donkey's years now. And given what he thinks of the Labour candidate (not much) Ernst may be interested in the Bury N findings.......

[TheGrimSqueaker]

From AS Blog
Duncan Smith says if a single person becomes a couple, their claim might have to go back to manual processing.

Q: So if someone starts off simple, but becomes complex, they might have to be processed manually. How many people are in this category?

Robert Devereux says no system in the DWP is 100% electronic or manual. It would not be sensible to be rigid, he says.

If a person becomes a couple, some parts of their claim will remain automated. But conditionality factors may be processed manually


Forgive me for being numb here, but doesn't that negate the whole principal of UC ??

Depends on what you consider the principle of UC to be; if you consider it to be a flexible single benefit that would adjust (relatively) seamlessly to changes in people's circumstances then, yes, it does negate it. But I lways get the impression that "Wally" Smith thinks the principle is to make as many people as possible really, really unhappy, so that works for him.

@SD, the Marginals are the Tories "elephant in the room"; while general polling is hovering near to crossover they can pretend everything is peachy, even though they know they actually need a substantial lead (which they are never going to get) to be safe. But if things return to the 3%-4% leads we had for so long, which show Ed with a slim majority, then they know they are in serious trouble; because that majority wouldn't be slim, the marginals would change that.

I really don't know which way things will go between now & May. I'm still not optimistic, as the MSM will undoubtedly continue these levels of attack and we could continue to see very close polling; mind you, people may get fed up with the negativity (as they did with "The Man Who Hated Britain" episode) and we could see a bounce. Scary times.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Strangely enough, I have been watching the 1970 GE coverage on YouTube recently.

The modern parallels with how Heath was treated by the media pre-election ("hopeless, useless") are certainly potentially there!

[adam]

I haven't looked at the detail, but the headline Smithson tweeted before the poll was released was that this was a poll of safer Tory marginals - seats with bigger majorities - so if Labour are ahead in 10 out of 13 of those, that's excellent news and in any reasonable world would be very difficult to spin. But this is not...

[DonutHingeParty]

IDS wants Jobcentres to replace the role of careers advisors, or Connexions in schools.

How many Jobcentre staff have as their role profile to actually investigate career opportunities and build relationships with local businesses?

They'd be much better to get recruitment agencies in to do this.

[PorFavor]

Can anyone here take at stab at explaining what he's talking about, please?

Debbie Abrahams, a Labour MP, says that 75% of the increase in employment is self-employment, and that the average income for self-employed people is £10,000 a year. The jobs are not out there, she says.

Duncan Smith says he does not accept that. More than two-thirds in the rise in self-employment comes from full-time self-employment, he says. (Andrew Sparrow, Guardian)

IDS 'believes' that working in full-time self-employment and earning <10k is a good thing. Obvs.

I could only deduce that he thinks that working 2 days a week, self-employed, and earning tuppence
a week is a situation that is much improved by working 5 days a week, self-employed, and earning - tuppence a week.



Edited to add a comma. You must all be so relieved that things are back to what passes for normal.

[adam]

Unsurprisingly,the Republicans took control of the Senate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29910542" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Right wing pundits already telling us this is down to Obama's "extreme liberalism" (ha!) and thus spells doom for Ed Milizzzzzzzzzz..........

What did they say, I wonder, when Dubya had his arse handed to him at the same stage of the electoral cycle in 2006?

There's a good response to the 'great night for Republicans' by Gary Younge here…

Republicans didn't win a big as you think they did. And Obama didn't lose.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Considering the almost relentless stream of tightening polls I will quite readily take 10/13 seats.

Having caught a snippet of Amber Rudd on Daily Politics, I have to ask, how shit is she?

[Lonewolfie]

@SD, the Marginals are the Tories "elephant in the room"; while general polling is hovering near to crossover they can pretend everything is peachy, even though they know they actually need a substantial lead (which they are never going to get) to be safe. But if things return to the 3%-4% leads we had for so long, which show Ed with a slim majority, then they know they are in serious trouble; because that majority wouldn't be slim, the marginals would change that.

I really don't know which way things will go between now & May. I'm still not optimistic, as the MSM will undoubtedly continue these levels of attack and we could continue to see very close polling; mind you, people may get fed up with the negativity (as they did with "The Man Who Hated Britain" episode) and we could see a bounce. Scary times.

I dunno - even this guy (I think he's been mentioned somewhere already) might not be able to help Dodgy Dave and Gidiot this time...

http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/p ... 24152.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 81887.html

Looks as though the knives might be out post-2015 irrespective of the result

[rebeccariots2]

This is remarkable

Could it be a counter ploy by UKIPers to show up the Tories as a really nasty and fruitcakey party? So nasty and fruitcakey that they will only appeal to dead people? Just pondering and musing and imagining ... nothing concrete to substantiate that at all.

But then on the other hand - the Tories might well be desperate and nasty and fruitcakey enough to decide all by themselves to try to appeal to dead people.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Considering the almost relentless stream of tightening polls I will quite readily take 10/13 seats.

Having caught a snippet of Amber Rudd on Daily Politics, I have to ask, how shit is she?

The answer to that is "very, VERY"

Hastings is one of the most likely Labour gains from the Tories next year, and not just because demographics are moving their way there

[rebeccariots2]

MikeRichards
05 November 2014 10:45am

And here I was thinking that the lousy mobile coverage in large parts of the country was down to incompetent telcos and lax governments - but reality it was all part of a carefully calculated anti-terror strategy.
Next we'll learn that the dearth of rural bus routes and post office closures are all being organised by GCHQ to stop ISIS taking over the Cotswalds.

Thank you Mike Richards - BTL on G piece. That raised a much needed smile from me.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/n ... lack-spots

[HindleA]

A Work Programme advisor view


http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[rebeccariots2]

A Work Programme advisor view


http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

One of my customers was having a little celebration last week - to mark her son having managed a full year without being put in Swansea prison. He is immensely proud of this - a real achievement. He lives with bi polar disorder and a host of other issues concomitant upon that - and receives ESA - in the work related group.

To imagine that he could cope in the kind of system and under such unrelenting pressure described here - let alone without the support of family - is unthinkable. His mum thinks it's a miracle she has managed to make sure he still has his flat - a roof over his head. Such basics have to come first. She is incandescent about the Tories proposal to cut ESA to 50p more than JSA ...

[adam]

I've looked at Ashcroft's site now and it is the case that this round of constituency polling was looking at safer conservative seats…

In my previous round of battleground polling, published last month, I looked at eleven constituencies where the Conservatives have majorities of up to 4.8% over Labour. I found that nine of them would change hands on the basis of my snapshots, with swings to Labour ranging from 2% to 8%, averaging 5% in the seats as a whole.

This time I have looked further down the Conservative defence list, at twelve seats with majorities of between 1,936 or 4.8% (Northampton North) and 3,744 or 7.1% (Loughborough).

So, Labour in course in 9 of 11 easier targets, and now ahead in 10 of 13 of slightly tougher targets. And the tories don't just need to hold on to seats, they need to win seats from Labour to form a majority.

And yet somehow Mike Smithson tweets

Given recent trend in national polls LAB must surely be relieved that they didn't do too badly in @LordAshcroft 's latest 12 seat surveys.

Can we work this up into a tweet to him?