Saturday 18th & Sunday 19th June 2022

[refitman]

Morning all.

[frog222]

The week Boris Johnson went to war with the law
As PM takes aim at multiple international laws and courts after Partygate saga, critics fear escalating delinquency
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... th-the-law

Jill Rutter's conclusion " “It’s not clear where it’s going to end,”

[frog222]

Upsides and downsides of an October election --

Just as importantly, going early would avoid three other chronic problems the PM faces: the Privileges Committee into whether he mislead Parliament over Partygate (expected to report in November), the national Covid inquiry (expected to start this autumn) and another confidence vote by his MPs (which technically can’t be held again until next June).

The whole idea is still fraught with danger, but some MPs think it’s credible. “Don’t forget he’s a gambler, that’s what he does: high risk, high reward,” as one put it to me. One MP said: “He’s mad enough to bring the whole house down, but it could work.”

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-plan-n ... ad-1692914

Getting through next year looks like hard work for this particular ERG-set of Tories and a dynamic even courageous LP could do well ...

Oh .

[AnatolyKasparov]

Unless the Tories are clearly ahead in the polls, talk of an early election is pure glue huffing on their part.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Unless the Tories are clearly ahead in the polls, talk of an early election is pure glue huffing on their part.

It depends. With Johnson at the helm it's hard to see how they can get a lead in the polls when most of the public and his backbench MPs want him gone. If you're a believer in his magical campaigning powers then sooner rather than later makes sense considering the position he's in and given the fact that Labour's lead does look soft I can see why Johnson loyalists would be sorely tempted. If I were a betting man I'd say the chances of a snap election in the Autumn are about even money at the moment. It depends on those backbenchers, because if there's even a sniff that they could succesfully oust him Johnson will call and election. However if they do manage to replace him an early election would be absolute lunacy.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I think his cabinet may be more of an obstacle actually, they surely aren't going to go along with an obviously insane early poll just to save Johnson personally.

In theory it is true that he cam call an election when he wants following the scrapping of the FTPA, in practice not so much.

(and lets not forget that Labour gained support after the GE was called not just in 2017 but last time as well)

[frog222]

[Willow904]

Unless the Tories are clearly ahead in the polls, talk of an early election is pure glue huffing on their part.

It depends. With Johnson at the helm it's hard to see how they can get a lead in the polls when most of the public and his backbench MPs want him gone. If you're a believer in his magical campaigning powers then sooner rather than later makes sense considering the position he's in and given the fact that Labour's lead does look soft I can see why Johnson loyalists would be sorely tempted. If I were a betting man I'd say the chances of a snap election in the Autumn are about even money at the moment. It depends on those backbenchers, because if there's even a sniff that they could succesfully oust him Johnson will call and election. However if they do manage to replace him an early election would be absolute lunacy.

I've seen speculation that interest rates could be as high as 3 or even 4 percent by the end of the year. There's a desperate, crazy feel to the housing market right now that's very reminiscent of the late 80's as people scrabble to get on the ladder before prices get further out of reach and affordable long-term fixed interest rates start to disappear. If we're headed for a crash, what are the benefits to the Tories of waiting? Boris supporters may see a second election victory as their only chance to keep him in power. Meanwhile his detractors may feel they have little to lose. If they win they can still get rid of Boris at a later date (and more easily if he has a reduced majority) and if they lose it might be worth it to get rid of him, especially if Labour end up carrying the can for the tanking economy.

So, although on the surface it doesn't make sense to throw away a large majority two years early, I wouldn't rule it out.

Edited to clarify 3-4% mortgage rates, which I assume is based on a base rate rise to 2%.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Thinking "this is a good election to lose" rarely works out well in practice. And if it becomes widely believed the Tories have called an election frivolously and/or mainly to hide coming bad news from people, they could be not just beaten but thumped.

[frog222]

13° now, so down 21 from yesterday's peak . Wet underfoot and blowing half a gale !

I see Lynton Crosby hasn't yet completely nobbled the BBC --

40'32" in on yesterday's Toady paper review, the Times story on the three aides threatening to resign if he made his latest mistress chief of staff at the FO.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0018fzc

[AnatolyKasparov]

Good morefternoon, all.

I assume you will be following today's results in France froggers?

[frog222]

Good morefternoon, all.
I assume you will be following today's results in France froggers?

Morning AK, I'll youtube-zap some of the TV coverage

Just put up this one with a countdown to the closure of voting , currently on the Power of Russian TV propaganda in the Donbas 'Republic' , with a reporter who has spent years working there



Next on the Russian anti-personnel dart-bombs, pioneered in the past by Frogs and US... . Too interesting, ugh .
------------------------------------------------------------

19% participation at midday , a slight increase on the first round last Sunday .

Fingers crossed

Special programme at 19h frenchtime .

[refitman]

[refitman]

[AnatolyKasparov]

Well this Patrick Grady thing is starting to look like a major scandal.

Evidently the SNP are like the other parties in not heeding that the crime doesn't kill you, but the cover-up does.

[frog222]

Had it running in the background until it came to the vital bit at 36 minutes--

"When did you realise that Corbyn wasn't going to be PM? "



As you were .

[frog222]

[tinyclanger2]

"Barbara Hall was enjoying a quiet morning at her senior citizens’ group in Wakefield when word went round that a special guest would be attending. Hall, a retired saleswoman, watched Keir Starmer work the room. “I wasn’t convinced,” she said. “He’s an awkward person, isn’t he? He doesn’t fit in. Boris Johnson would fit in. He would have us screaming and laughing.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eld-voters

Not even at all irritating.

[refitman]

Imagine being outflanked on the left, by a former conservative journalist. A better defence of unions than I've seen from any Labour MP recently.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Macronistas saying the mainstream left was just as bad as the far right was obviously never going to backfire, eh? Or maybe its the result they actually want.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

I've seen Len McCluskey interviewed many times and he invariably comes across as being a bit thick and full of himself.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

And isn't that always the problem? We always have doubts and concerns and second thoughts. But not Len or any other ideologue.

Their thinking has politicay contrived boundaries. Lines they may not cross. Hobbled by their own lack of courage and tawdry ambition.

[refitman]

I've seen Len McCluskey interviewed many times and he invariably comes across as being a bit thick and full of himself.

That may be so, but Rachel Wearmouth and her bosses at the Mirror libelled him and have rightly been found out.

It does explain why Wearmouth kinda went nuts on twitter the past few days.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

That may be so, but Rachel Wearmouth and her bosses at the Mirror libelled him and have rightly been found out.

It does explain why Wearmouth kinda went nuts on twitter the past few days.

Sorry dude, I don't know what you're on about and and am too drunk to bother to find out.

I do apologise.

[Sky'sGoneOut]