Friday 24th June 2022

[refitman]

Morning all.

Full result of Wakefield by-election - Labour gain from Conservatives

Simon Lightwood (Lab) 13,166 (47.94%, +8.13%)
Nadeem Ahmed (Con) 8,241 (30.00%, -17.26%)
Akef Akbar (Ind) 2,090 (7.61%, +6.60%)
David Herdson (Yorkshire) 1,182 (4.30%, +2.38%)
Ashley Routh (Green) 587 (2.14%)
Chris Walsh (Reform) 513 (1.87%)
Jamie Needle (LD) 508 (1.85%, -2.09%)
Ashlea Simon (Britain 1st) 311 (1.13%)
Mick Dodgson (FA) 187 (0.68%)
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Loony) 171 (0.62%)
Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 144 (0.52%)
Therese Hirst (Eng Dem) 135 (0.49%)
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 124 (0.45%)
Christopher Jones (NIP) 84 (0.31%)
Jayda Fransen (Ind) 23 (0.08%)

Lab maj 4,925 (17.93%)
12.69% swing Con to Lab
Electorate 69,601; Turnout 27,466 (39.46%)
2019 Con maj 3,358

[refitman]

[refitman]

[Willow904]

No doubt the line today will be all about how governments always lose midterm by-elections but the Tiverton and Honiton result is part of a wider trend of Libdem resurgence in the South West. They also regained Somerset County Council from the Tories earlier this year. Another big indicator that the current Tory courting of northern "Red Wall" voters is alienating traditional southern Tory voters, which presumably Johnson will continue to ignore as he really has nothing to offer them.

[frog222]

Thoughts for @Sky with his ma in hospital . xx

Bruce outshone herself last night, or is she always equally shit ?

I haven’t checked these out, but apparently Fiona Bruce’s bro is a Tory Councillor in Devon !

She could get a job on Putin TV any day

[refitman]

No doubt the line today will be all about how governments always lose midterm by-elections but the Tiverton and Honiton result is part of a wider trend of Libdem resurgence in the South West. They also regained Somerset County Council from the Tories earlier this year. Another big indicator that the current Tory courting of northern "Red Wall" voters is alienating traditional southern Tory voters, which presumably Johnson will continue to ignore as he really has nothing to offer them.

Why winning by-elections is bad for the winners

[frog222]

As John Curtice pointed out much earlier, Labour didn’t do brilliantly in Wakefield , with ‘Other’ candidates doubling from 10 to 20%. Good graphic currently on frontpage of the Times–
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/

Dowden ‘taking responsibility’ for re-opening that leadership question looks like fun. Radio4 doing a fair job for once on Raab blustering about a high wage economy, which is coming from where exactly ?

[frog222]

Crazy shit from the Jan6 Inquiry, I was reminded of those threatened " hundreds and hundreds of resignations " earlier on R4 --

" Donoghue said Trump asked him what he would do if he replaced Rosen with Clark.

"I said, 'Mr. President, I would resign immediately. I'm not working one minute for this guy,'" he replied.

Engel echoed that: "'I've been with you through four attorneys general, including two acting attorneys general, but I couldn't be part of this," he said he told Trump.

Donoghue told Trump he would lose his "entire department" if he moved ahead.

"Within 24-48-72 hours, you could have hundreds and hundreds of resignations of the leadership of your entire Justice Department because of your actions. What's that going to say about you?" Donoghue remembers asking.

According to Donoghue, Cipollone was supportive of the DOJ and said Clark's plan to send a letter to states about election fraud was a "murder-suicide" pact.

Donoghue said Clark would be "left leading a graveyard," a statement he said had an impact on Trump, who ultimately decided not to fire Rosen.

Copyright 2022 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org. Barbara Sprunt

https://www.kpcc.org/npr-news/2022-06-2 ... with-trump

Good historical one here on the UK equivalent of Trump , another rogue head of government trying it on tho in a less extreme fashion --
Boris Johnson ‘prorogued’ Parliament — just like a 17th-century king
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... tury-king/

[gilsey]

@sky Sorry about your Mum.

[gilsey]

I watched QT, unusually. Mick Lynch found the Stratford audience tougher than the average media jock, indeed.

Lots of talk about how wages have fallen behind, but imo treated as if it was a natural event rather than being pinned on the tories, I don't think people should take it for granted that the general public make the link. Someone could have made the point that if public sector wages had been allowed to increase modestly along with at least inflation since 2010, govt would be in a better position now to treat the current high inflation as a blip and call for restraint.

[gilsey]

Dowden: Somebody must take responsibility

Johnson: Thank you for volunteering

[gilsey]

Wages: why are they not keeping up with inflation?

Piece from a few weeks ago by an Economics Prof which also doesn't mention public sector pay.

First, there is the decline of union power together with the rise in firm power. Unlike the 1970s, British workers are not able to collectively demand and secure pay rises via union organisation. They face bargaining at an individual level, and the best way to get higher pay is often to find a new job. The increase in market power of firms also helps to explain why profits have risen: they’re up around 60% in real terms in 20 years, compared to growth in workers’ real wages of about 14%.

Second, there are other measures of unemployment. While recorded unemployment has fallen, the actual level of unemployment is higher: workers on incapacity benefits – in relatively large numbers in particular areas such as Wales and Scotland – would be in work if suitable jobs were available, but are not counted in the official unemployment statistics.

The fact that there has been a recent rise in economic inactivity, with workers (particularly older ones) exiting the labour force, also suggests some hidden unemployment. This matters because it implies that workers’ bargaining power may be less than what the headline measures of unemployment suggest.

Third, there is the role of lags. While wage inflation may not be rising by as much price inflation now, in the coming months, some argue it will begin to rise and perhaps even overtake price inflation. This argument has been put by the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, leading him to call for wage restraint.

Nothing to do with the govt, then. ?

[AnatolyKasparov]

Curtice was ridiculously negative about Labour's local election results last month, mind.

[Willow904]

Why winning by-elections is bad for the winners

Although I don't particularly agree, I can at least see why someone might be able to argue this result isn't stellar for Labour but on what planet is it not good news for the Libdems?!

Before 2010, Libdem success across the South West was very much dependent on Labour supporters lending them their votes and post-Coalition the Libdems suffered a big setback as that support was withdrawn. This is very clearly no longer the case, even my husband has said he may consider voting Libdem if they could get Rees-Mogg out, something he's never been willing to do before. This is a big problem for the Tories. It may be true that Wakefield shows people don't really want Labour but this misses the crucial point - right now voters want the Tories even less.

[Willow904]

It looks like I'm not the only one to come to the above conclusion :

https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/20 ... the-tories

[AnatolyKasparov]

Its a decent enough Labour result given its a seat that voted for Brexit by about 60-40.

Remember when that stat would have been the be all and end all?

[refitman]

Good for Zarah

[AnatolyKasparov]

The descent of the Mail into total frothing madness since Dacre's comeback really should be commented on more.

[refitman]

[AnatolyKasparov]

Benton is one of *the* nastiest and most ideologically hard right of the 2019 Tory intake.