Bank Holiday Weekend 27th, 28th & 29th August 2022

[refitman]

Morning all.

[refitman]

Looks like Laurence Fox is still getting some work

[frog222]

[AnatolyKasparov]

Looks like Laurence Fox is still getting some work

What a spiral into the abyss that man has had.

[RogerOThornhill]

Meanwhile GB news seems to think it's OK to interview a known Holocaust denier who goes by the name of Peter Sweden...

[AnatolyKasparov]

Neil Oliver's descent down the rabbit hole has been almost as striking as Fox's.

[frog222]

Morning all

There are lies, damn lies, and then there is Home Office propaganda about migrants
Kenan Malik

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... t-migrants

Sir Ian Boyd is a Scottish zoologist, environmental and polar scientist, former chief scientific adviser at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and is a professor of biology at the University of St Andrews --
Don’t blame scientists, Mr Sunak, when governments rarely act on our advice
Ian Boyd
Britain was ill-prepared for a pandemic because politicians didn’t want to make the risks public

" Recent comments from Rishi Sunak and others about the role of scientists in the management of the pandemic – blaming us for encouraging lockdowns and thereby exacerbating the disaster – are an example of rewriting history. They also overlook the important role that the political classes and their acolytes have had in the crisis. I want to put the record straight."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... our-advice

[frog222]

Good crop in the G today --

Desperate times need radical solutions. Even Churchill knew when it was time to tax the rich Torsten Bell

So, ignore the debate about nationalising energy suppliers (which is irrelevant to the costs of delivering below-market prices) or calls from those same suppliers for expensive and complex government guarantees.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... atastrophe

Rawnsley on the lightness of the two contenders --

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ng-britain

[frog222]

[frog222]

Meanwhile ----

[frog222]

Free Markets !!!!!!!!!!!

[RogerOThornhill]

People on here might know about this already but this little device seems to be able to get round the paywall....

https://12ft.io/

I used it just now for a Telegraph article about universities binning Chaucer & Shakespeare which, I'm sure you'll be surprised to learn, turned out to have nothing new but was simply rehashing already debunked claims...

[AnatolyKasparov]

I wonder how receptive even Barclaygraph readers might be for endless culture war nonsense when they too are cold and hungry.

[RogerOThornhill]

One of the great typos...

[frog222]

Responding to a MoneySavingExpert reader who asked if she should cancel her direct debit, and switch to paying her bill on receipt to control her finances better.
He replied advising against this, saying: “You will get a short term cash flow gain from switching to paying in receipt of bills.

“However, over the longer run, because you’re paying more for each unit of energy you use, you will pay more in receipt of bills.
“Because if you overpay on direct debit you are entitled to that money back.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 54386.html

I don’t know enough about it to know if he’s correct , but one thing is sure — if you are on Direct Debit they can empty your bank account !

[refitman]

One of the great typos...

At least he's taking it in stride

[Willow904]

Responding to a MoneySavingExpert reader who asked if she should cancel her direct debit, and switch to paying her bill on receipt to control her finances better.
He replied advising against this, saying: “You will get a short term cash flow gain from switching to paying in receipt of bills.

“However, over the longer run, because you’re paying more for each unit of energy you use, you will pay more in receipt of bills.
“Because if you overpay on direct debit you are entitled to that money back.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 54386.html

I don’t know enough about it to know if he’s correct , but one thing is sure — if you are on Direct Debit they can empty your bank account !

If a company wants to change a Direct Debit payment, they have to give you notice in which case you can cancel the direct debit then, before they take it, so that shouldn't happen. The thing people need to look at is the price per kwh and standing charge they are paying/being quoted. That's the only thing that really matters. If people can't afford the lowest rates they're offered it doesn't really matter what the payment method is as what you ultimately owe will be the same - rate X usage. If you can't pay what you owe, the energy company will take action to move you onto a pre-payment meter. And this is the bit most people haven't really thought about yet. We currently have the capacity (manpower plus equipment) to change over a small amount of people a month based on historic default rates. If a much higher number of people default in a month the capacity to change them all to pre-payment meters won't be there and the system, as it's currently designed to work, won't function. This is why Starmer is urging government intervention to freeze prices now at the current cap - not because it's ideologically the best option but because it's pretty much the only option which can be taken quickly at such a late stage after the government ignored the problem for over a year. Anything less will result in chaos and probable collapse of the energy market. Having averted the immediate threat, you can then argue over how to compensate company losses, whether through windfall taxes or whatever or the merits of nationalisation.

[frog222]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... is-cartoon

SECRET plans !

[AnatolyKasparov]

Not heard from Sky this BHW, wonder what he is up to.

[refitman]

[frog222]

Dear Mr Rosen !

[AnatolyKasparov]

A true national treasure.

[frog222]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1564 ... 12512.html



” There is a dimension to this which is not discussed at all, which is changing the way in which domestic energy is priced in the UK. The rules are set by Ofgem, the government regulator. These prices are set to make matters as bad as possible for everyone but energy companies.
What follows is a little technical. I have checked the facts with energy expert Mike Parr, to whom I am grateful, whilst accepting that all remaining errors are mine alone, having said which I think all that follows is true.
It’s important to remember that the goal of energy regulation in the UK is to preserve the privatised energy ‘market’, whatever else is claimed. In essence, everything it does is meant to ensure that at least some of the companies engaged in this ‘market’ do not fail.
The way it sets energy prices reflects this. There are lots of ways to generate electricity in the UK. Renewables, nuclear, coal, hydro and gas all play a part. Most are used, except coal, which is now only in emergency use.
The cost of generating electricity using these various methods varies greatly. For example, using gas at current spot market prices costs about £611 per megawatt hour (MWh) right now.
Other sources cost about £60/MWh for nuclear, £50/MWh hydro and in the range £50 to £140/MWh for on and offshore wind and PV. Those are big differences.
The electricity we actually get delivered to our houses is from a mix of all these sources. It is total nonsense, for example, that anyone supplies pure renewable electricity. All electricity from all generating sources is mixed together when it goes down the wires to our houses
Bizarrely, however, that’s not how the price is set. The wholesale price of electricity in the UK is set on what is called a ‘marginal costing’ basis. This is much beloved of economists, but is working against the interests of all consumers of fuel right now.
What it means is that the wholesale energy price is set so that the most expensive producer can make a profit from the sales they make into the wholesale energy market.
So, since gas produced electricity is the most expensive to produce right now (and is likely to be so for a long time to come) its cost of manufacture plus a fair profit margin sets the wholesale price for all electricity right now, however it is generated.
What that means is that those producing electricity from gas can still make a profit and so stay in business at present. But what it also means is that the nuclear, hydro and renewables producers are being paid the price that the gas generators get.
This makes no sense at all. For example, there is no ‘marginal cost of production’ for wind and solar power: the wind and sun are free. In those cases a marginal costing is simply the wrong one to use.
That is also true of nuclear power, where the cost of production is based on the capital cost of the plant spread over its useful life. Again, a marginal costing basis for pricing makes no sense when the amount of variable input into the nuclear process is tiny.
The result is obvious: the profit in the nuclear and renewable producing companies, who usually make more than half of UK electricity, increase dramatically, and wholly unnecessarily when a marginal costing price setting model is sued to suit gas generators of electricity.
I should, however, add a twist. Many renewable energy producers are already subject to contracts that essentially fix their prices, with the government already taking the risk on price variation. See lowcarboncontracts.uk.

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/
Where these contracts exist, and where fixed price contracts guaranteed by the government exist with nuclear producers, the current excess electricity profits arising because prices are based on the cost of gas production already flow to the government, a little-known fact.
There is also a pricing problem in the gas market. The UK produces about half its gas needs, the rest it has to buy internationally. We can’t control that international price.
But the energy regulation system let’s UK produced gas be sold at the international price for onward supply to UK consumers, again massively increasing the profits of UK gas producing companies wholly unnecessarily, and solely because of the pricing model used
The talk is that a windfall tax could correct for this. That, however, is to ignore the fact that much of the problems that we face has been created by dire regulation, and changing that regulation is also within the scope of government.
Suppose that regulation was changed. Instead of all producers, whether of gas or electricity, being paid the price of the highest cost supplier in their market they were instead paid their own fair marginal cost of production, including a reasonable profit margin.
Then presume that the energy regulator priced the onward supply of wholesale gas and electricity to the energy distribution companies on the basis of the actual cost to produce (including fair profit) of the gas and electricity actually sold into the market each day.
I stress, that for much of the renewables sector and for nuclear this will not be hard to do because of the nature of the government price guarantees that are already in place.
For gas, simply mix internationally priced gas with UK produced gas at its fair price of production. That’s all that is required.
This would, though, require a change in the law. There would be yelling, screaming and shouting from some energy companies despite what I have noted and legal threats galore. These will need to be ignored for one straightforward reason.
That’s because customers can no longer afford UK energy prices, all UK focussed energy companies are technically bust. There is no market let for the energy they might produce, whether gas or electricity, at the prices currently being asked for it, at least without state aid.
In that case the state can intervene – to save these companies. I am sure a lawyer, somewhere, will see a chance to bring a legal action to dispute that, but the reality is that their chance of success might well be low.
If in doubt, the UK needs to declare this a national emergency with existing laws suspended since, as a matter of fact, it is a national emergency. And if we could do this sort of thing for Covid we could certainly do it now.

What would the impact be? Obviously it’s not precisely possible to say, but broadly speaking the price of gas might reduce by 40% whilst the price of electricity could fall by maybe 65%.

I stress these are estimates and that this move would not solve all the energy problem overnight: the remaining prices are still problematic and massive reforms to the market would still be required. But we would win three things.

The first would be instant reductions in energy costs. Households and businesses, let alone many lives, might be saved as a result.
Second, inflation would be reduced, although not eliminated. Massive pressure would be taken out of the UK economy.
Third, the pressure for state interventions to save households, pubic services and businesses would reduce – although by no means entirely go away.
Those are three massive wins that almost no other reform that could so simply be put in place could deliver.
So why won’t this happen? First, because no one in politics seems to know about this. Second, because politics (of most sorts right now) is terrified of upsetting ‘the markets’, even if those markets crush consumers.
Third, as a result politicians who lack the courage to hold the positions to which they have been elected will not do what is required to protect us from harm.
A decade ago I wrote a book called ‘The Courageous State’. It was all about the need for politicians who believed in the power of the state to deliver good for the benefit of the people that they might govern.
Image
The sad fact is that we don’t have such politicians right now. If we did they would be taking action to change energy price regulation right now to protect us all from the harm that those regulations are causing.
We need courageous politicians right now who might be willing to act in the public interest to change the rules of the energy price game to save us all from harm. I can live in hope that this might still happen. I am not holding my breath. ENDS

[frog222]

Don't panic, it's ONLY a brain injury !

[AnatolyKasparov]

Looking like the big Ukrainian push for Kherson might be starting.

[RogerOThornhill]

I see that Kemi Badenoch is yet again being tipped for the Education role after a likely Truss victory.

She and her fans might think this is great since she can get stuck into those woke schools...whereas the reality is that she'll be dealing with schools telling her they've run out of cash due to unfunded pay increases and massive gas and electricity bills...

Be careful what you wish for culture warriors...

[tinyclanger2]

Hello all.
Because I find the world currently very (too) sobering I've also started watching SuperStore (Cloud 9). Any takers?

[RogerOThornhill]

I'm finding the mood swinging towards nationalisation of water & energy right now quite fascinating - there was even a poll in one of the tabloids that suggested about over half of Tory voters were pro-nationalising them.

[tinyclanger2]

vaguely cheering

[refitman]

Rob Ford (Mancs), like Nate Silver before him, should stick to polling analysis

[Willow904]

Hello all.
Because I find the world currently very (too) sobering I've also started watching SuperStore (Cloud 9). Any takers?

Superstore is brilliant and extremely funny but I'm not sure it's the best show if you're trying to forget the injustices of the world and the oppressive inequalities inflicted in the name of corporate greed.

[RogerOThornhill]

Oh.

[refitman]

I've just realised, I'm old enough to remember when Hurst was actually a good comedian