Tuesday 23rd. December

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 7:32 am

YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:15 am

ephemerid wrote:YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.

Will somebody please spare a thought for NickyB and his weighted moving average long term trend.

DonutHingeParty · Post by **DonutHingeParty** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:34 am

Someone on political betting said that they thought the reason for the change was Tories being away on skiing holidays or being able to take longer family breaks, however with the abolition of roaming charges you can still have your smartphone with you, so I'll take that argument with a pinch of salt

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:37 am

Morning All!

Yes the polls this week should have settled Labour nerves a little and got a few Tory ones jangling.

A couple of statistical things as the year ends that folk may be able to help me with.

Firstly, the Tories are Tweeting about their mega-successful, millions of apprentices scheme. Does anyone have or recall a clear analysis of this?

Second, I'm sure we were expecting the official report into Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratios (HSMRs) in December. Any news?

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:41 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ephemerid wrote:YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.
Will somebody please spare a thought for NickyB and his weighted moving average long term trend.

Certainly.

These are the thoughts I will spare.

1. The last 5 polls have clearly been outliers and there is no clear trend.
2. The next 5 polls may show a trend, unlikely, and we shall see.
3. The moving is weightily average and does not indicate a trend.
4. The correct 5 polls have not been published showing a trend.
5. The last 5, the current 5, and the next 5, are all the wrong 5's.
6. The government is doing a fantastic job on the economy.
7. If there is a trend, it's approval of the coalition policies.
8. If there is no trend, the non-trend applies to Labour. Only.
9. Every set of 5 polls shows approval for Cameron.
10. Every set of 5 polls shows disapproval for Miliband.
11. We cannot discern any trend at all whatsoever oh no.
12. We shall see.

There you go. Twelve thoughts spared for NicholasB for the twelve days of Christmas.

On the first day of Christmas, my government gave to me, another year of tough austerity.
On the second day of Christmas, Cameron gave to me, 2 COBRA meetings and another year of etc.
On the third day of Christmas, Cleggie gave to me, 3 lost deposits, 2 Cobra meetings and another etc.
On the fourth day of Christmas, Iain gave to me, 4 welfare cuts, 3 lost deposits, etc.
On the fifth day of Christmas, Osborne gave to me, 5 golden bungs!
To save time......
Six Hugos spinning
Seven Betas crashing
Eight Mays deporting
Nine Jeremys hiding
Ten MPs to UKIP
Eleven Shapps personas
Twelve fish to point at.......

Sing along!

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:43 am

Reposting this from last night.

As was mentioned last night, it's not a 'plot' to simply put up a candidate against a sitting MP and campaign hard when the polls are telling you there is a chance you could beat them.

Nor are Labour 'exploiting' anger over frozen pay, job losses and privatisation in the public sector. The Coalition, and Clegg in particular, are responsible for that all on their own. They might be able to treat us however they want during Parliament, they might be able to decimate the services we worked so hard to create, belittle and abuse us in the media and throw a million of us onto the scrapheap for ideological reasons but at the General Election we get to cast our own judgement on the likes of Clegg and what he has done, as do our families.

Clegg betrayed so many of those who voted for him for the chance to rewrite election laws and the House Of Lords in the Lib-Dems favour. He portrayed himself as a progressive to win votes when on so many issues he clearly is not. If people are turning from him towards Labour (and to the Greens) then it's not as a result of Labour plotting but as a result of 5 years worth of simmering anger at his own actions and the horror of what another 5 years will bring.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:47 am

Brian Tomkinson retweeted
Labour Press Team ‏@labourpress 50m50 minutes ago
READ: @edballsmp on how a Labour government will fast track the mansion tax http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 41165.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:48 am

Brian Tomkinson retweeted
Alex Belardinelli ‏@abelardinelli 6m6 minutes ago
"Saving the NHS will be at the heart of our first Budget" - @edballsmp @Independent interview http://bit.ly/13sTeIo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 41067.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:54 am

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 2 mins2 minutes ago Poplar, London

Several Tories have told me they're worried about Clegg and Danny Alexander losing their seats. Would make coalition negotiations harder.

As I imagine would Labour winning a majority...

Toby Latimer · Post by **Toby Latimer** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 8:58 am

I hope this comes off

: ScreenShot00151.jpg (107.69 KiB) Viewed 19125 times

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 9:10 am

Spacedone wrote:
George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 2 mins2 minutes ago Poplar, London

Several Tories have told me they're worried about Clegg and Danny Alexander losing their seats. Would make coalition negotiations harder.

As I imagine would Labour winning a majority...

Indeed! I thought the same

Truth is Alexander is highly likely to lose and Clegg highly unlikely to. But we can dream eh?

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 9:18 am

Not just the times running the Clegg story .....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... uency.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Poor old Michael Portillo, about to close his special Moment.

Morning all.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 9:35 am

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:Not just the times running the Clegg story .....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... uency.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Poor old Michael Portillo, about to close his special Moment.

Morning all.

From that Mail story:

Answering questions from youngsters at Sheffield Children’s Hospital for a Christmas phone-in on LBC radio, the Lib Dem leader admitted going to weekly boxing classes after his wife Miriam gave him a pair of gloves last Christmas.
Mr Clegg joked: ‘What I lack in skill I make up for in exertion and enthusiasm.’ He also denied being ‘mates’ with David Cameron, saying: ‘We don’t work together as mates. We’re there to do a job.’

For some reason (probably my jaded viewpoint) giving someone a pair of boxing gloves seems like the action of someone who's telling you you need to toughen up and learn how to look after yourself to stop yourself being picked on. Funny present for a wife to give their husband - no?

And the second part of that extract - denying he's mates with Cameron - feeds even more into that schoolboy narrative.

And morning all from me.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 9:41 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Spacedone wrote:
George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 2 mins2 minutes ago Poplar, London

Several Tories have told me they're worried about Clegg and Danny Alexander losing their seats. Would make coalition negotiations harder.

As I imagine would Labour winning a majority...
Indeed! I thought the same

Truth is Alexander is highly likely to lose and Clegg highly unlikely to. But we can dream eh?

Well, Clegg losing his seat would be the icing on the cake wouldn't it? It would mean Labour had done pretty well and then some ... and no Clegg gyrating around like an insinuating gooseberry in any subsequent proceedings. Job very well done.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 9:50 am

Morning all.

This may be right for some of the kippers, others know yet revel in their "pc gone mad" denials.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens ... at-me.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 9:56 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Spacedone wrote:

As I imagine would Labour winning a majority...
Indeed! I thought the same

Truth is Alexander is highly likely to lose and Clegg highly unlikely to. But we can dream eh?
Well, Clegg losing his seat would be the icing on the cake wouldn't it? It would mean Labour had done pretty well and then some ... and no Clegg gyrating around like an insinuating gooseberry in any subsequent proceedings. Job very well done.

Of course it would be excellent. But Clegg has a majority of 15,000, over the Tories! I can't see where the votes are going to come from to unseat him.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 9:58 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote: Indeed! I thought the same

Truth is Alexander is highly likely to lose and Clegg highly unlikely to. But we can dream eh?

Well, Clegg losing his seat would be the icing on the cake wouldn't it? It would mean Labour had done pretty well and then some ... and no Clegg gyrating around like an insinuating gooseberry in any subsequent proceedings. Job very well done.
Of course it would be excellent. But Clegg has a majority of 15,000, over the Tories! I can't see where the votes are going to come from to unseat him.

Ashcroft showed Labour well up in Hallam in his polling as early as October 2010.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:04 am

yahyah wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Well, Clegg losing his seat would be the icing on the cake wouldn't it? It would mean Labour had done pretty well and then some ... and no Clegg gyrating around like an insinuating gooseberry in any subsequent proceedings. Job very well done.
Of course it would be excellent. But Clegg has a majority of 15,000, over the Tories! I can't see where the votes are going to come from to unseat him.

Ashcroft showed Labour well up in Hallam in his polling as early as October 2010.

Morning yahyah. Sorry I know I'm being a wet blanket here but Hallam has never had a Labour MP, even in 1945 when they came close. Nevertheless, I'm glad Labour and NHA are taking a pot at Clegg. Hopefully it will show the scoundrel up for what he is

Post by **adam** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:20 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Firstly, the Tories are Tweeting about their mega-successful, millions of apprentices scheme. Does anyone have or recall a clear analysis of this?

I'll try to have a dig around later, but in the early days of this I'm sure that the overwhelming majority of new apprenticeships were level 2 and 3 customer services with some level 3 junior management stuff.

Level 2 is GCSE equivalent and Level 3 is A Level equivalent.

Essentially supermarkets stopped training their staff and started getting the government to pay for it instead.

I think there are also some interesting statistics about the average age of new apprentices.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:21 am

Oh dear it seems the miracle growth has been revised down.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:26 am

From the Groan

Live coverage as UK growth revised down to 2.6%, and the current account deficit hits £27bn

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:35 am

The dog that eats up debt
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/ ... il%2Balert

Alarming stuff. I'm pretty sure I'm remembering aright that the 'vulture fund' mentioned here as the main company engaging in buying up these so called dodgy bundles of loans - Cerberus - is the same company that featured in the documentary investigating the 'notorious recovery and restructuring units - RBS's Global Restructuring Group and Lloyds's Business Support Unit.' They were absolutely cut throat in their dealings - and most of the time the businesses involved had had their loans sold to this company with no say so and no warning.

So looks like banks are just escalating this practice. What a wonderful recovery, rebalanced economy and reformed banking sectore Osborne has delivered, eh?

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:35 am

Is it just me or have the Groan removed Beta from most of their website?

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:48 am

Have to hand it to Lib Dem Voice, they never shy away from the topics most worrying to everyone..

http://www.libdemvoice.org/jo-swinson-s ... 43893.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:49 am

Spacedone wrote:Is it just me or have the Groan removed Beta from most of their website?

They have. But I'm sure it's just an interlude while they try to sort out the chaos that ensued when they inflicted it on us the other day ... do you remember this same pattern when they imposed the nested comment threads? It all went properly haywire - so they withdrew it for a bit - until it came back wholesale and for ever, ever, ever. I try very hard not to have to actually open a story at the G now ... see if I can find it elsewhere because the Beta layout is so unpleasant and difficult. For one thing I'm unable to recommend any comments ... so not even the residual pleasure of rewarding a good argument or point is left.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:49 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:From the Groan
Live coverage as UK growth revised down to 2.6%, and the current account deficit hits £27bn

Those are some quite large revisions for the last 5 quarters. Revised down by 0.6% for Q2 2014?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:51 am

letsskiptotheleft wrote:Have to hand it to Lib Dem Voice, they never shy away from the topics most worrying to everyone..

http://www.libdemvoice.org/jo-swinson-s ... 43893.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Snap with that sentiment letsskip ... I thought exactly the same thing when I looked at LDV.

They never disappoint do they?

I love the way the articles from Nick Clegg rarely have even a single comment these days.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:55 am

Spacedone wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:From the Groan
Live coverage as UK growth revised down to 2.6%, and the current account deficit hits £27bn

Those are some quite large revisions for the last 5 quarters. Revised down by 0.6% for Q2 2014?

Holy crap, how is Osborne going to spin his way out of that? Perhaps he'll take a nip of IDS bullshit juice. "I believe...."

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 10:59 am

UK current account deficit hit record £27bn. Just look at the last 5 quarters!

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:04 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ephemerid wrote:YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.
Will somebody please spare a thought for NickyB and his weighted moving average long term trend.

What about DanH? Is he ranting somewhere

This Is Bad News For Ed Miliband

Someone ought to go check on him. It could be a crisis moment.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:06 am

Does that water hose smiley man work or have misused it?

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:13 am

The headline of this article made me spray tea across my keyboard.

Is George Osborne a closet Keynesian?
No matter how much a politician advocates short-term pain for long-term benefits, voters will stomach only a certain amount of suffering, writes Robert Skidelsky
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... -keynesian" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

To be sure, Osborne must not be given too much credit for his closet Keynesianism. A true Keynesian would have said that what was needed in 2010 was fiscal expansion, not consolidation. Osborne believed, or appeared to believe, that austerity would speed up economic recovery, by restoring confidence in government finance.

But there is a strong case to be made that the cuts that Osborne did make impeded recovery, by removing spending power from an economy already suffering from a deficiency of aggregate demand. The result was economic stagnation from 2010 to 2013, undermining Osborne’s ability to meet his deficit-reduction targets.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:13 am

citizenJA wrote:Does that water hose smiley man work or have misused it?

No, it work well - how you feeling today? any better?

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:13 am

citizenJA wrote:Does that water hose smiley man work or have misused it?

Works for me.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:18 am

StephenDolan wrote:
Spacedone wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:From the Groan

Those are some quite large revisions for the last 5 quarters. Revised down by 0.6% for Q2 2014?
Holy crap, how is Osborne going to spin his way out of that? Perhaps he'll take a nip of IDS bullshit juice. "I believe...."

I've not seen the article but have read other recent economic news. Mega trolls below the lines blaming Brown & Labour. They've been given instruction sheets - Labour are to be kept away from government because Osborne's good fight against a 'structural deficit' left by Labour is only beginning - that's the short version.

It's offensive, reading the babble of lies deliberately meant to provide justification or cover for current government. This is our lives we're talking about. The economic well-being of this country is of paramount importance.

Post by **refitman** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:22 am

I see the Guardian are targeting their advertising well:

: Screenshot_2014-12-23-11-19-19.png (259.66 KiB) Viewed 18859 times

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:24 am

Spacedone wrote:Is it just me or have the Groan removed Beta from most of their website?

They never intended to switch yesterday, apparently (sometime in the New Year - 5 Jan maybe? - is my guess)

It seems there was some problem with the website more generally, and there was a move to the Beta version wholesale whilst this was sorted out.

Tizme1 · Post by **Tizme1** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:28 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ephemerid wrote:YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.
Will somebody please spare a thought for NickyB and his weighted moving average long term trend.

OK

An average *snigger* developing into a weighty *chuckle* moving on to a *chortle* that quite possibly will become a trending long term *guffaw*

Morning all.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:29 am

AngryAsWell wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Does that water hose smiley man work or have misused it?
No, it work well - how you feeling today? any better?

Ah, bless you for thinking of me, my friend! Yes, I'm much better.

Reading the new biography, Nye: The Political Life of Aneurin Bevan, by Nicklaus Thomas-Symonds. Not far into it, I read a little then take off my specs to muse. A competent biography at the very least & I'm hoping it's as good as it begins.

The patronising way Churchill pronounced Bevan's last name Bev-anne & calling him 'the minister of disease' makes me ashamed of Churchill.

I hope Yahyah has forgiven me for having my Christmas present before Christmas Day; she's reading it too. I wonder how she got a hold of it from the library? The wait list for it in Stoke is lengthy, the last time I checked.

Good morning!

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:33 am

On the Clegg thing, I think he is screwed unless he gets a big Tory tactical vote. Labour will squeeze every left wing vote it can, vote Labour and make a Tory government impossible is a big play on the doorstep. As is get Clegg to all those students, hell even kippers might be tempted because it will screw Cameron.

I think it is on a knife edge.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:35 am

refitman wrote:I see the Guardian are targeting their advertising well:

Oh, my goodness, Refitman, that's some obnoxious advertising the G has going on there - worse still, it occurs to me some articles I've read from there recently (not belonging to author's I continue to respect) are little more than advertisements as well. Wait - no, it's more accurate to say, the articles provide scaffolding advertisements cling to.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:37 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:On the Clegg thing, I think he is screwed unless he gets a big Tory tactical vote. Labour will squeeze every left wing vote it can, vote Labour and make a Tory government impossible is a big play on the doorstep. As is get Clegg to all those students, hell even kippers might be tempted because it will screw Cameron.

I think it is on a knife edge.

The G recons Ashcroft has Labour only 3 point behind....
"A poll by Lord Ashcroft last month put Clegg just three points ahead of Labour (31% v 28%). That result was based on a question asking respondents to think about their own constituency and how they would vote there. When people were first asked a standard question about voting intention, without reference to the constituency, Labour was ahead of the Lib Dems by one point (28% v 27%)."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... bour-party" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:38 am

ephemerid wrote:YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.

Its actually Labour's highest rating on YouGov since the start of October, and comes despite their still being in the doldrums north of the border.

Populus spoiled things a bit by having Labour and Tories tied on 35 in their final poll of the year, but their unweighted figures had Labour over 5 ahead apparently.

Re the Nick Clegg discussion - yes his losing next year looks impossible and yes it probably actually is (I have long been a sceptic on this) but let's not forget that at every GE since 1997 (when Sheffield Hallam was one of a literal handful of seats where Labour's share actually declined) a large number of naturally pro-Labour voters have tactically backed the LibDems. That, at least, isn't going to happen any more.

If the non-negligible Green vote decides to throw its weight behind Oliver Coppard, *and* the Tories hold up reasonably well, then Clegg could just find it too close for comfort

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:43 am

Anyone seen that awful Pravdian editorial? Apparently there is a risk that the tories may be tempted to put party above country. Of course that is somewhere in the remote future, not a current reality.

It's amazing, isn't it, that a national newspaper can get away with blind eyeing the corruption all around for so, so long? And continue to present things as if just a few sensible reforms are needed to put things right, and that is best done by voting for the parites of corruption themselves, of course, who are really doing all they can to improve our lot.

Their game, just like the trolls they host, is to confuse, distract and misinform. Liberals are joined at the hip with tories and always have been, defending corruption and class oppression with just as much zeal and a good deal less honesty than the vermin, for getting on for two centuries.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 11:48 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Have to hand it to Lib Dem Voice, they never shy away from the topics most worrying to everyone..

http://www.libdemvoice.org/jo-swinson-s ... 43893.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Snap with that sentiment letsskip ... I thought exactly the same thing when I looked at LDV.

They never disappoint do they?

I love the way the articles from Nick Clegg rarely have even a single comment these days.

(my bold) The Deputy Prime Minister of the UK unable to inspire comments, not even spars, below the line after his work is further confirmation he's a deadman walking.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 12:00 pm

adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Firstly, the Tories are Tweeting about their mega-successful, millions of apprentices scheme. Does anyone have or recall a clear analysis of this?
I'll try to have a dig around later, but in the early days of this I'm sure that the overwhelming majority of new apprenticeships were level 2 and 3 customer services with some level 3 junior management stuff.

Level 2 is GCSE equivalent and Level 3 is A Level equivalent.

Essentially supermarkets stopped training their staff and started getting the government to pay for it instead.

I think there are also some interesting statistics about the average age of new apprentices.

I read the other day there's a large percentage of over 50's. Morrisons are one of the worst culprits.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 12:00 pm

mikems wrote:Anyone seen that awful Pravdian editorial? Apparently there is a risk that the tories may be tempted to put party above country. Of course that is somewhere in the remote future, not a current reality.

It's amazing, isn't it, that a national newspaper can get away with blind eyeing the corruption all around for so, so long? And continue to present things as if just a few sensible reforms are needed to put things right, and that is best done by voting for the parites of corruption themselves, of course, who are really doing all they can to improve our lot.

Their game, just like the trolls they host, is to confuse, distract and misinform. Liberals are joined at the hip with tories and always have been, defending corruption and class oppression with just as much zeal and a good deal less honesty than the vermin, for getting on for two centuries.

Please post the link to the editorial, Mikems. I don't know if I've got the article you're referring to.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 12:03 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
ephemerid wrote:YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.
Its actually Labour's highest rating on YouGov since the start of October, and comes despite their still being in the doldrums north of the border.

Populus spoiled things a bit by having Labour and Tories tied on 35 in their final poll of the year, but their unweighted figures had Labour over 5 ahead apparently.

Re the Nick Clegg discussion - yes his losing next year looks impossible and yes it probably actually is (I have long been a sceptic on this) but let's not forget that at every GE since 1997 (when Sheffield Hallam was one of a literal handful of seats where Labour's share actually declined) a large number of naturally pro-Labour voters have tactically backed the LibDems. That, at least, isn't going to happen any more.

If the non-negligible Green vote decides to throw its weight behind Oliver Coppard, *and* the Tories hold up reasonably well, then Clegg could just find it too close for comfort

I think there was a Tweet the other day that said Labour are only 2% behind the LibDems in Hallam.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 12:20 pm

Good afternoon.

Now is the moment, I feel, to wish everyone here (lurkers included) a Merry Christmas. Enjoy it, survive it, whatever. And stay safe and warm. (I'm not off anywhere - I just wanted to be in time to catch anyone who might be.)

I've just made one of my fairly paltry donations to Labour as a Christmas present to them. I look at it as paying an insurance premium! I expect Ed Miliband will be doing his usual low-profile Christmas stuff again this year. I wonder if DC will try some bad-taste stunt in an attempt to trump him. Or is he (DC) festively fuddled by now?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 23 Dec, 2014 12:36 pm

ephemerid wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ephemerid wrote:YouGov/Sun final voting intention poll of the year -

LAB 36%
CON 32%
UKIP 16%
LD 6%
GRN 5%

Not too shabby.
Will somebody please spare a thought for NickyB and his weighted moving average long term trend.

Certainly.

These are the thoughts I will spare.

1. The last 5 polls have clearly been outliers and there is no clear trend.
2. The next 5 polls may show a trend, unlikely, and we shall see.
3. The moving is weightily average and does not indicate a trend.
4. The correct 5 polls have not been published showing a trend.
5. The last 5, the current 5, and the next 5, are all the wrong 5's.
6. The government is doing a fantastic job on the economy.
7. If there is a trend, it's approval of the coalition policies.
8. If there is no trend, the non-trend applies to Labour. Only.
9. Every set of 5 polls shows approval for Cameron.
10. Every set of 5 polls shows disapproval for Miliband.
11. We cannot discern any trend at all whatsoever oh no.
12. We shall see.

There you go. Twelve thoughts spared for NicholasB for the twelve days of Christmas.

On the first day of Christmas, my government gave to me, another year of tough austerity.
On the second day of Christmas, Cameron gave to me, 2 COBRA meetings and another year of etc.
On the third day of Christmas, Cleggie gave to me, 3 lost deposits, 2 Cobra meetings and another etc.
On the fourth day of Christmas, Iain gave to me, 4 welfare cuts, 3 lost deposits, etc.
On the fifth day of Christmas, Osborne gave to me, 5 golden bungs!
To save time......
Six Hugos spinning
Seven Betas crashing
Eight Mays deporting
Nine Jeremys hiding
Ten MPs to UKIP
Eleven Shapps personas
Twelve fish to point at.......

Sing along!

You are brilliant - creative & inspiring.

I started singing your version with exuberance.
Mr. Citizen excitedly got out the tape recorder in order to share it with the Bury family on our post-Christmas meet up.
I made him stop.

I hope to see you soon, Ephemerid; you're never far from my thoughts.

xx
JA