Christmas Eve 2014

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 1:47 am

Merry Christmas and a happy, healthy New Year to one & all

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 2:13 am

And you pk.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 4:43 am

And a very Cherry Crimbold to all of you from me, too. You are the best

daydreamer · Post by **daydreamer** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 6:48 am

Merry Christmas to all at FTN

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 8:03 am

2014 has not been the easiest year - changed job and lost my father - and one that I will not be sorry to see go

One of the bright spots though has been meeting new friends (virtually of course) of a like mind who make this forum a fun and welcome place

Wishing you all a great festive period and 2015

As to 'Open Seas' - it will always be fun toying with someone of so little substance but we have a good community here and don't need any poison.....

Hope also to see Temulkar making an active come back - his/her insights are missed and we should try to let some of the tetchier exchanges stay in the past!

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 8:08 am

Merry Christmas Pk

and good wishes to all FTNers.

Will be walking & cooking today, two day proved Italian bread just about to go into the oven as a start.

Can't help wondering what'll be happening next year at this time.
Read somewhere [on Smithson's site?] that there may well be two general elections next year, as a no majority result will lead to another attempt at winning over the voters.

Toby Latimer · Post by **Toby Latimer** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 8:14 am

Has Danny Alexander just realised he may lose his seat in 5 months. Numpty. At least he's got his demolition hat at the ready.

George Osborne has been accused by his Liberal Democrat deputy of planning the “wilful destruction” of key public services if the Conservatives win next May’s general election.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 42987.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

: Chancellor-George-Osborne-008.jpg (28.57 KiB) Viewed 17140 times

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 8:19 am

Toby Latimer wrote:Has Danny Alexander just realised he may lose his seat in 5 months. Numpty. At least he's got his demolition hat at the ready.
George Osborne has been accused by his Liberal Democrat deputy of planning the “wilful destruction” of key public services if the Conservatives win next May’s general election.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 42987.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Chancellor-George-Osborne-008.jpg

That's like Batman & Robin in a weird alternate universe.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 8:47 am

Best of good wishes to every one!
May 2015 bring some good cheer and better health for all.
Hugs all round

Agree it would be good to see Tem back

If OS is here for discussion that's all good I love serious discourse, if here to mischief make so be it, I need a laugh now and then

Mind, he's bee lurking so long it's about time he actually said something.
Happy festivities!

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 8:53 am

Good morning and a Merry Christmas Eve to one and all.

The last poll of the year is from Survation/Daily Mirror

Survation/Daily Mirror Westminster (chg vs 3 Nov)
LAB 33% (+2)
CON 30% (+3)
UKIP 21% (-3)
LD 10% (+1)
OTHERS 6% (-3)

And if you think those numbers are quite silly just look at what can be found in the VI breakdown for Scotland and Wales

Scotland
LAB 44.6%
SNP 22.8%

Wales
LAB 23.1%
CON 27.4%

And as if by total coincidence the former head of ICM has written an article about how online polling produces very shaky results that generate headlines and potentially alter voter intention because of the drip-feed effect.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index. ... undations/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lonewolfie · Post by **Lonewolfie** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 8:58 am

Morning all...and seasons greetings and Happy PaganFestivalpinchedbytheChristians to all FTNrs - and thank you for being here

...and a special hello to our new, eagerly awaited, member, Open Seas - I'm sure I remember some comment being mentioned where he/she had castigated FTN for being 'loonyleftywhiningSocialists' who couldn't handle the Graun any more, as it was becoming so much more representative of how 'the public think/feel'...and commented on what was being said in here, verifying that it reads here regularly - so it's been a-lurkin' and, I hope, will be reading this...and I'll be looking forward to picking up where we left off...apparently it was going to drive all left wingers into the sea...so if you are reading, I'm still waiting

Yah Yah - I believeTM that the '2 elections' is a desperate attempt to shore up ConDem-nation morale and not based within any kind of reality - DfHs 'Labour poll lead evaporates' is a 5%-7% lead nationally, with marginals 2%-3% above that...from pollsters who are all in the Westmonster Bubble (Ashcroft - bought Dodgy Dave a few seats at the last election/Yougov - set up by horse-warming Zahawi and whose motto is 'what the world thinks', yet mostly polls on behalf of Murkydochia) - I'm still with AAW and looking forward to a marvellous Milibandian future following a Labour landslide.

This optimism (or Hope, possibly) is strengthened by Beaker suddenly realising that the big boys might not have been right, and that it might have been better to have thought for himself and not slavishly voted for all of the anti-human legislation we're now saddled with in return for 5 minutes of fame...or perhaps the realisation by (sections of) the MSM that Gidiot might not actually be the strategic and economic genius they 'believed'TM him to be...or the fact that Dodgy Dave is still the best electoral asset they have

On the other hand, I had a conversation with 2 Labour Party members on Saturday night (there is a Labour Party here in hope, just north of Peterborough, even though we're prime Kipper/BNP/Britain First territory) - when I asked what they thought of Mr Ed, one said 'I voted for Andy Burnham' and the other didn't answer (subsequently turned out to have voted for the wrong/right brother) - very lukewarm re Mr Ed and much more interested in talking about Ukip and how well they seem to be doing

- they left as I started to berate them for pretending that the British electoral system was the same as a presidential style system, following trying to gently explain the results from the marginal polling and that Mr Ed just needs to ensure the correct number of seats gained to win...and that I thought it a bit rich that I, never having been a member of, nor voted for, the Labour Party, was defending their leader TO THEM

...so perhaps my optimism is misplaced...still, over 4 months to go and, as someone once said, a week is a long time in politics.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:16 am

Is it just me or is this really badly phrased ?

BBC News (UK) @BBCNews
· 2m 2 minutes ago
Can Justin Welby solve church's problem with homosexuality? http://bbc.in/1wEDYEx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; by @CarolineWyatt

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:21 am

AngryAsWell wrote:Is it just me or is this really badly phrased ?

BBC News (UK) @BBCNews
· 2m 2 minutes ago
Can Justin Welby solve church's problem with homosexuality? http://bbc.in/1wEDYEx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; by @CarolineWyatt

No, not just you.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:33 am

Good morning. Very Merry Pagan Festmas to all of you.

Openseas may be 'havin a laugh' with us about moving here ... but the door is open, and we'll see what the New Year brings. What intrigues me is why they wish to leave the politics blog? Anyone? I thought they quite enjoyed the winding up and to and froing over there.

Later today I'm cooking our meal for tomorrow .... Aubergine Cassoulet to be followed (after a pretty substantial pause) Tom Kerridge's spiced Orange Cake with plum sauce and chocolate ice cream. This leaves me free to do pretty much nothing in the kitchen tomorrow ... Mr Riots will enjoy doing roast spuds, parsnips and whatever ... which he must have regardless of what the festive meal actually is. We are pretty much opted out of any family or Christmas specific obligations ... we see them in the New Year ... so usually go for a long walk somewhere we don't normally get the time to explore. Last year it was Cilgerran gorge - no idea where it will be tomorrow.

55DegreesNorth · Post by **55DegreesNorth** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:33 am

Happy Christmas to alll.
I hope it's relaxing & stress free. Lovely cold, sunny day here, fire lit and all systems ready to go. I'm off to the beach for a walk, then over to some friends for a meal.
Have a peaceful time.
Xx
55.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:36 am

Morning and Happy Xmas all. And Happy Birthday to me.

A bit of shopping to do then a big pile of prezzies to open, or did I dream that last bit?
I now use FTN as my primary news source which says a lot for our impartial national broadcaster. Good to be part of it. I will berate the BBC next year for every hint of bias. That means I've got a lot of berating to do.
Everyone have a good time 'cos next year will be very interesting.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:38 am

Good morning all you happy FTNesters. I hope you're all stocked up with indigestion medicine, cold remedies, and soothing ointment and sticking plaster. I never start a Christmas without those essential items

And now, although my eyes simply do not want to open despite two strong cups of tea, I'm off to make peanut brittle, hence the need for ointment and sticking plasters... Later

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:43 am

The article on online polling is fascinating. It entirely agrees with the view I had on the system when I discovered you could just join a panel. To me that violates the whole concept of sampling, on which modern opinion polling is based. This impact may have been muted in the Euros because only the very motivated bother to vote.

So an interesting study would be to collect the results from the very few non online polls, correct for house effects and see what the answer of that poll of polls is.

Sadly I can't tell which polls are done by alternative methods.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:44 am

frightful_oik wrote:Morning and Happy Xmas all. And Happy Birthday to me.
A bit of shopping to do then a big pile of prezzies to open, or did I dream that last bit?
I now use FTN as my primary news source which says a lot for our impartial national broadcaster. Good to be part of it. I will berate the BBC next year for every hint of bias. That means I've got a lot of berating to do.
Everyone have a good time 'cos next year will be very interesting.

Happy Birthday frightful_oik, have a great day

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:50 am

@Frightful_oik

Happy birthday, I'm glad you were born.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:50 am

Benefit cuts are already being blamed for the deaths of many vulnerable people, but there could be 60 more that we never hear about
The Government are still weighing up whether their reviews into benefits-related deaths are in the "public interest"
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 42735.html

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 9:51 am

As we all get ready for the festivities lets spare a thought for those with no home

"Labour highlights rise in number of families ‘illegally housed’ in UK
Party says emergency temporary accommodation will have cost taxpayers £2.8bn over current five-year parliament"

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... amilies-uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:00 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:Good morning. Very Merry Pagan Festmas to all of you.

Openseas may be 'havin a laugh' with us about moving here ... but the door is open, and we'll see what the New Year brings. What intrigues me is why they wish to leave the politics blog? Anyone? I thought they quite enjoyed the winding up and to and froing over there.

Later today I'm cooking our meal for tomorrow .... Aubergine Cassoulet to be followed (after a pretty substantial pause) Tom Kerridge's spiced Orange Cake with plum sauce and chocolate ice cream. This leaves me free to do pretty much nothing in the kitchen tomorrow ... Mr Riots will enjoy doing roast spuds, parsnips and whatever ... which he must have regardless of what the festive meal actually is. We are pretty much opted out of any family or Christmas specific obligations ... we see them in the New Year ... so usually go for a long walk somewhere we don't normally get the time to explore. Last year it was Cilgerran gorge - no idea where it will be tomorrow.

Merry Christmas All.

OpenSeas was one of the most vocal critics of Beta when it first hit Andrew Sparrow's blog. I'm guessing that's the reason he/she may be looking to move elsewhere. Especially as it's gotten very hard to reply to threads or have any kind of conversation over there. No actual person (rather than head office troll) wants to waste their time commenting into a void.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:01 am

Happy Birthday frightfuloik. Hope you get a lot of love and good things coming your way. Yes, roll on 2015 .... it's definitely going to be 'interesting'.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:08 am

Morning All and may I echo all the festive and birthday greetings

@Alison_Inman shared this from Colchester's Lib Dem MP (on Twitter)

It's a Letter in today's Daily Gazette http://www.gazette-news.co.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:10 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Morning All and may I echo all the festive and birthday greetings

@Alison_Inman shared this from Colchester's Lib Dem MP (on Twitter)

Sits ill at ease with the one I posted above -

Labour highlights rise in number of families ‘illegally housed’ in UK
Party says emergency temporary accommodation will have cost taxpayers £2.8bn over current five-year parliament

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:19 am

Rather alarming NHS funding article over at the BBC today:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30594929

Under the plans, centres treating more patients than expected would receive just half the extra treatment costs.

Since the internal market created under Thatcher, the advantages of being a 'national' service have all been wiped out, haven't they?

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:40 am

frightful_oik wrote:Morning and Happy Xmas all. And Happy Birthday to me.
A bit of shopping to do then a big pile of prezzies to open, or did I dream that last bit?
I now use FTN as my primary news source which says a lot for our impartial national broadcaster. Good to be part of it. I will berate the BBC next year for every hint of bias. That means I've got a lot of berating to do.
Everyone have a good time 'cos next year will be very interesting.

Seems you share a birthday with Ed

https://www.facebook.com/groups/iamback ... d/?fref=nf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:44 am

Good morning all.

Apart from a trip, shortly, to the local Coop for today's Right-Wing Guardian (I still prefer the Crossword), and milk, it's all done and dusted. The turkey is defrosting in anticipation of its journey to the centre of the oven tomorrow, I have a full complement of carrots, brussells, roast taties, sausages, stuffing, apple sauce, with choice of apple pie or jam roly-poly with custard for pud (don't do Xmas pud or Xmas cake - iced madeira instead).

I am also adequately supplied with alcohol, chocolate and soft drinks, not to mention books, CDs, DVDs and other assorted ways of passing the time, when we finally get to tomorrow.

And may each and every one of you have the day you would love to look back upon, be it religious or not, and may you be with the people you want to have with you on a day for turning the rest of the world away.

I don't know if a thread is planned for tomorrow, but if it is I'll be around at some point.

Merry Xmas Everyone.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:49 am

Steve Reed MP ‏@SteveReedMP 2h2 hours ago
What do Brits abroad miss most at Christmas? Mince pies! http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle ... -miss-most" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Steve Reed MP retweeted
creany ‏@skib38 54m54 minutes ago
@SteveReedMP our lab Alfie ate all the homemade whiskey mince pies & lay snoring like an ol drunk on the sofa for whole day #mincepiesstaple

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:57 am

7 Welsh Christmas traditions you'll wish we still celebrated
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/whats-on/w ... ll-8338118

: The Mari Lwyd.jpg (54.45 KiB) Viewed 16876 times

I don't wish we still did the wren capturing one though ...

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 10:59 am

Spare a thought (or a Tweet?) for the protesters at Stafford Hospital who are planning to continue their camp over the festive period.

Unbelievably (well believably) planning permission has been granted for a temporary car park where they are camping.

http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2014 ... een-light/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:00 am

Happy Birthday to frightful oik

Andrew Percy voted for the abolition of the bedroom tax.Libdems more Tory than the Tories.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:02 am

Oborne has his ups and downs as we all know. Today is one of his downs. Big time!
Do not read this if you've just eaten:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... ution.html

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:03 am

It is Ed's birthday, and there's a very nice picture of him on his wikipedia page, for those interested in such trivialities.

Happy birthday frightfuloik, have a lovely day.

Merry Christmas everyone, and best wishes for 2015.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:22 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:The article on online polling is fascinating. It entirely agrees with the view I had on the system when I discovered you could just join a panel. To me that violates the whole concept of sampling, on which modern opinion polling is based. This impact may have been muted in the Euros because only the very motivated bother to vote.

So an interesting study would be to collect the results from the very few non online polls, correct for house effects and see what the answer of that poll of polls is.

Sadly I can't tell which polls are done by alternative methods.

The ICM, MORI, and Ashcroft polls are all still done by phone - ComRes do both telephone and internet surveys.

Though I'm not sure if one method is more accurate than the other, tbh - the phone polls have also turned up some strange findings this year.

And it was YouGov - an internet panel pollster - who got closest this year in the Euro-elections and ultimately (after their earlier notorious rogue) the Scottish referendum. They were also nearest to getting the 2012 London mayoral contest correct, IIRC.

Somebody from ICM slagging off internet polls does fall slightly into the MRD (of blessed memory) category, tbh

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:24 am

AngryAsWell wrote:
frightful_oik wrote:Morning and Happy Xmas all. And Happy Birthday to me.
A bit of shopping to do then a big pile of prezzies to open, or did I dream that last bit?
I now use FTN as my primary news source which says a lot for our impartial national broadcaster. Good to be part of it. I will berate the BBC next year for every hint of bias. That means I've got a lot of berating to do.
Everyone have a good time 'cos next year will be very interesting.
Happy Birthday frightful_oik, have a great day

Happy birthday, and Christmas. But hope you get double presents.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:31 am

How the Greens will do in the 2015 general election: a seat-by-seat prediction
http://nicktyrone.com/greens-will-2015- ... rediction/

Warning to Tizme and other Greens - not an optimistic forecast. But then the person writing is part of a liberal think tank - so he might say these things, mightn't he.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:46 am

Another prediction by that liberal think tank bloke.

For Porfavor. Here's the good news ... he doesn't think Hancock will be re elected in Portsmouth South. Or Vernon Jackson. Or Ukip. The bad news ... he thinks it will be a Tory gain.

How UKIP will do in the 2015 general election: a seat-by-seat prediction
http://nicktyrone.com/ukip-will-2015-ge ... rediction/

Oh and Farage is going down in flames apparently - in his poorly chosen seat of South Thanet.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:47 am

Morning all.

Done the shopping, finished the wrapping up (I'm not very good at it so loathe having to do it. Sellotape always goes wrong and ends up wrapped round my finger), some decorations to put up before the daughter comes home this evening and tells us off...and then I'm ready.

Bit of an odd Christmas - dinner tonight as the other half is working tomorrow, so not quite sure what I'm doing tomorrow - kids won't be up until lunchtime I reckon.

Oh, and Student Finance...it's really not great timing sending letters out on the 9th asking for proof of earnings and expecting them back by the 30th...especially when they don't arrive until the 21st. Do they not think?

Happy Christmas to one and all!

Tizme1 · Post by **Tizme1** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:55 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:
How the Greens will do in the 2015 general election: a seat-by-seat prediction
http://nicktyrone.com/greens-will-2015- ... rediction/
Warning to Tizme and other Greens - not an optimistic forecast. But then the person writing is part of a liberal think tank - so he might say these things, mightn't he.

Morning all and a very happy birthday to Oik.

Thanks for the link RR. I'm not too concerned by his analysis. Not least because the Green party have been clear that some of the targets are more about building for the future than any expectation we'll win in 2015. Not too impressed by 'hunches' either. I have my own 'hunches' regarding some of the seats but I wouldn't use them to categorically predict any outcome.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 11:57 am

: Robert Halfon MP on A414.jpg (43.32 KiB) Viewed 16793 times

Otto English @Otto_English · 18h 18 hours ago
Nothing to see. Just Rob Halfon MP currently sitting outside a garage on A414 wishing passers by Happy Christmas

Otto English @Otto_English · 18h 18 hours ago
@Otto_English Harlow is of course one of the most marginal seats in UK. But fairly sure it has nothing to do with that.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:01 pm

Interesting...

Ex-chair of governors at Cromer Academy raises concerns about Inspiration Trust in resignation letter

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/education/e ... _1_3897059

A chairman of governors who championed Cromer Academy’s decision to join a chain of Norfolk academies has resigned, claiming there are “serious governance shortcomings” within the organisation.

Mr Burton, a former chief executive of North Norfolk District Council, wrote: “I believe there are serious governance shortcomings within the trust which are compromising internal challenge and which may expose the organisation to external criticism. I really do not think it is appropriate for the CEO to be chairing LGBs [local governing bodies] which are formal committees of the trust board.

“Part of the role of LGBs is to hold the executive to account insofar as each academy is affected, whether that be in the context of the performance of the principal and senior teaching staff or of the CEO and corporate managers.

“How can that happen effectively when the CEO is also chairing the LGB as a governor? There is a clear conflict of interest here.”

Well quite.

Inspiration is the one run by Theodore Agnew who sits on the DfE Board...and DeSouza is a long-time dfE favourite.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:06 pm

@RogerOThornhill Pritt stick is so much easier

55DegreesNorth · Post by **55DegreesNorth** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:11 pm

http://www.thejournal.co.uk/durham-free ... es-8336617

Durham Free School head sneaks out under cover of Xmas.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:15 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:As we all get ready for the festivities lets spare a thought for those with no home

"Labour highlights rise in number of families ‘illegally housed’ in UK
Party says emergency temporary accommodation will have cost taxpayers £2.8bn over current five-year parliament"

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... amilies-uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We could have used that money for well-built, affordable, council housing securely tenured, available as homes for people on a rental basis.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:17 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:The article on online polling is fascinating. It entirely agrees with the view I had on the system when I discovered you could just join a panel. To me that violates the whole concept of sampling, on which modern opinion polling is based. This impact may have been muted in the Euros because only the very motivated bother to vote.

So an interesting study would be to collect the results from the very few non online polls, correct for house effects and see what the answer of that poll of polls is.

Sadly I can't tell which polls are done by alternative methods.
The ICM, MORI, and Ashcroft polls are all still done by phone - ComRes do both telephone and internet surveys.

Though I'm not sure if one method is more accurate than the other, tbh - the phone polls have also turned up some strange findings this year.

And it was YouGov - an internet panel pollster - who got closest this year in the Euro-elections and ultimately (after their earlier notorious rogue) the Scottish referendum. They were also nearest to getting the 2012 London mayoral contest correct, IIRC.

Somebody from ICM slagging off internet polls does fall slightly into the MRD (of blessed memory) category, tbh

Very hard to argue with his central analysis that the self selecting nature of the sample invalidates the whole process. Then we have the rather dubious weightings that they all employ. The Euros are probably a special case, can you remember how the last YouGov poll scored the Scottish referendum?

I wonder if this is all snake oil, partly built about a perceived target figure and partly driving the results. I guess we will find out in May, although the polls will be irrelevant to the election result. I also think the importance of Ashcrofts marginal polling is overdone. It is too historic to give an accurate view of the state of play. At best it gives a baseline to work from.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:32 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Morning All and may I echo all the festive and birthday greetings

@Alison_Inman shared this from Colchester's Lib Dem MP (on Twitter)

It's a Letter in today's Daily Gazette http://www.gazette-news.co.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He's describing something a little similar to the many European emptyings of undesirables, and how 'acceptable' people flooded into the vacuums left by their removal. The triumph of the envious over the unwanted, and how to make people happy by trampling on their fellow humans. He fails to mention the hardest hit of the people removed by this process did not have spare bedrooms, many needed them desperately so they could get something as basic as a good nights sleep in a different place from a sick partner. The Bedroom tax was as cynical a bit of social engineering as any of those earlier events, the victims had already been selected, and the issues must have been understood for people to have been targeted the way they have been. The parallel policies on WCA and sanctions prove the point.

Sorry for a post not full of good cheer but the article above turned my stomach. Somewhere out there are other people, some of them sick or old or incapable, now in a precarious situation unable to find the smaller homes they are told they must find in public housing, and excluded by rigid rental terms from small private lets. Or homeless.

And we are to rejoice. Yeah. Hallelujah! The Tories behaving like tories.

My apologies for not greeting you on this otherwise beautiful morning. A merry Christmas to one and all, may you all have a good holiday whatever you are doing.

We have, surprisingly, managed to do the essential foodshop, in spite of completely failing to find an Internet shopping slot. I use 'we' in its more imperious sense, as younger son did the actual work, braving the Chrismas hordes and successfully obtaining everything needed. He will also cook tomorrow, and older son who will be visiting will do the honours.

We are doing a very standard cook, and the cat, a very grumpy representative of her kind with a penchant for uprooting everything movable (and ensuring it lands on my now inaccessible floor) who usually ignores everything, including us, is now prowling around the fridge. Tomorrow she will undoubtedly be under the feet of chef and Maitre d' and will end the day twice her normal size, preening herself.

Today is the last chance to subdue the house and make it festive. This is problematic as we only really do Christmas for older son, and younger son is very dyspraxic. Still, we will get there if it takes all (slightly alcoholic) night. Dyspraxic younger son also plans to make mince pies tomorrow morning, so it should all be good fun, he will also make dough for Boxing Day sandwich bread. I predict a pseudo snow storm and a disastrous kichen aftermath. I'll be preparing the veg in safety at a little foldable table by my sofa, and singing out probably unhelpful instructions from a distance, and will avoid any urges to see what is really happening. I'm sitting here and trying to work out a way of to disarm the logic bomb he will shortly deliver on the need to get our floors done. Time to put on that imperiousness again, I think....... ! I'll have earned my paper crown by the time tomorrow's over. My odd, clever, likeable, very different, boys will have too.

Whatever you celebrate, have a good time. Regardless of everything life is good, and a precious ever changing gift. My love to you all. xxx

P.S.
Please could you think a little about what happens to our least fortunate people once the season ends, and save a little of your giving for January, which can be very bleak for rough sleepers and homeless people, and is the time when most good cheer has evaporated. xxx

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:41 pm

frightful_oik wrote:@RogerOThornhill Pritt stick is so much easier

Don't know about Roger, but not the way I wrap parcels. It's my most disliked Christmas chore.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 24 Dec, 2014 12:46 pm

Cameron's Christian leaning speech is raising hackles on Twitter. I'm gobsmacked each time he does it. His arrogance takes my breath away.