Saturday 2nd & Sunday 3rd December 2023

[refitman]

Morning all.

[frog222]

Morning refit

Lovely day here, -4 earlier to +10 now and the sun is bright !

Neighbour was already cultivating when it was dark and I think he's now finished all his drilling for the year, crossing fingers for 80+ tonnes of assorted cereals next year for his pigs and a newly installed baker at the farm.

[frog222]

I was very surprised that Friday's IndieSage was the last, but relieved to see they didn't share the Silly Idea that " Covid Is Over " !

@WillNewcomb's "Chapters" in the comments ( easily found! ) provide links to segments of interest for different viewers , so you don't have to watch the whole ninety minutes to find them !

00:23 Intro Prof Alice Roberts
02:18 Indie_SAGE future: Prof Stephen Griffin
04:00 Stats: Dr Kit Yates & Prof Christina Pagel
14:13 Why Indie_SAGE? Prof Susan Mitchie
14:54 Sir David King, Founder of IS, former Chief Scientific Advisor
20:50 What has IS achieved? Prof Deenan Pillay, Emeritus Prof of Virology, UCL
25:50 Views on scientists communicating with govt & the public
26:10 Deenan Pillay
32:26 What are the lessons to be learned from IS? David King
36:50 Summary: Alice Roberts
42:50 Behaviour advisory group : Prof Elizabeth Stokoe, Psychological and Behavioural Science, LSE
45:58 Questions from the public
46.04 Are the risks of Long term health issues known?
49:36 Any news on JCVI recommending the latest Novovax vaccines?
51:50 How & when will the Covid pandemic be over?
54:41 FAQ & lessons to be learned: Stephen Griffin
56:30 Were we well prepared in 2020: Prof Martin McKee
58:30 What more could be done wrt using our test & tracing capabilities : Prof Gabriel Scally, visiting Prof of Public Health, Bristol Univ
1:02:08 Could herd immunity by infection have ever worked without vaccination? Sheena Cruickshank
1:04:06 Was the emphasis on modelling the right way forward? Kit Yates
1:06:34 What difference would it have made if our understanding of airborne transmission had been more broadly accepted? Dr Helen Salisbury & Susan Michie
1:11:55 What has been the impact on key workers? Dr Benita Kane
1:14:11 Impact on primary Healthcare? Helen Salisbury
1:16:06 Why did IS recommend maximum suppression? Christina Pagel
1:17:44 Balancing Lockdowns against economic harms? Prof Stephen Reicher
1:19:20 How could we have improved adherence to isolation etc? Prof Anthony Costello
1:21:30 What have we learned about rapid deployment of vaccines & treatments? Sheen Cruickshank
1:23:25 What can we learn from the experience of Pandemic of inequalities? Dr Zubaida Haque
1:25:55 Has the virus lost its teeth with Omicron? Prof Aris Katzourakis
1:27:34 Data sources & monitoring? Dr Duncan Robertsin
1:29:24 Did we get the behavioral approach right? Stephen Reichert
1:30:38 Final thoughts: Anthony Costello
1:33:14 Close: Alice Roberts

While the Briefings have now stopped, please continue to follow IS through the website independentsageDOTorg, Twitter (X) @IndependentSage & Substack
open.substack.com/pub/independentsage

---------------------------------------

The last nine minutes give a good idea of where we are now, from some of the very distinguished panel --

[frog222]

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Morning refit

Lovely day here, -4 earlier to +10 now and the sun is bright !

It was -3° when I got up this morning and isn't forecast to get above freezing all day, but I've got some cool icicles hanging from the window frames so it's not all bad (on the outside thankfully). Not having double glazing or central heating makes a big difference when it gets this cold. When I finally plucked up the courage to emerge from under the duvet and go and stick the fire on it was a whopping 8° in here which was a bit of a shock to the system.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Snowing here today, though it isn't settling too much.

[frog222]

Morning refit

Lovely day here, -4 earlier to +10 now and the sun is bright !

It was -3° when I got up this morning and isn't forecast to get above freezing all day, but I've got some cool icicles hanging from the window frames so it's not all bad (on the outside thankfully). Not having double glazing or central heating makes a big difference when it gets this cold. When I finally plucked up the courage to emerge from under the duvet and go and stick the fire on it was a whopping 8° in here which was a bit of a shock to the system.

Brr @sky that's very British of you !

My old peasant's cottage can get down there too, but the thick walls mean it doesn't get much lower .

Over the Channel action by even RW govts LA's and housing associations has resulted in a far higher level of insulation/double-glazing etc . Quite new EU regs have raised new builds much more, getting close to Passivhaus level for a little more €€'s . Two of my kids built their own and only spend a yearly very few hundred €'s on heating. Insulation plus lots of double-glazed area facing the sun .

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Over the Channel action by even RW govts LA's and housing associations has resulted in a far higher level of insulation/double-glazing etc . Quite new EU regs have raised new builds much more, getting close to Passivhaus level for a little more €€'s . Two of my kids built their own and only spend a yearly very few hundred €'s on heating. Insulation plus lots of double-glazed area facing the sun .

Whereas here all rental property was supposed to have an Energy Performance Certificate rating of C by 2028 or become illegal, but the Tories scrapped the legislation because it would be 'too expensive for landlords'.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

‘She sacrificed care home residents’: health chief Jenny Harries under fire after UK Covid inquiry revelations

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... evelations

The head of Britain’s health security agency is facing a growing backlash after it emerged she suggested that discharging Covid-infected hospital patients to care homes would be “clinically appropriate” to protect the NHS from collapse.

I watched Harries give evidence this week and she was truly awful. All the worst fears we had about her were more than confirmed. Arrogant, patronising, dismissive of any criticism, she refused to admit that she'd made a single mistake or criticise Johnson's government in any way. I only wish she'd been asked to justify the claim she made that kids were more likely to be run over by traffic than catch Covid in schools. Unfortunately for her she's not quite as smart as she thinks she is and was quietly and carefully skewered by the KC and when we finally get the verdict it's not going to be kind to her.

This whole thread is worth a read.

[frog222]

Over the Channel action by even RW govts LA's and housing associations has resulted in a far higher level of insulation/double-glazing etc . Quite new EU regs have raised new builds much more, getting close to Passivhaus level for a little more €€'s . Two of my kids built their own and only spend a yearly very few hundred €'s on heating. Insulation plus lots of double-glazed area facing the sun .

Whereas here all rental property was supposed to have an Energy Performance Certificate rating of C by 2028 or become illegal, but the Tories scrapped the legislation because it would be 'too expensive for landlords'.

We have the same sort of legislation, here, which HAS been enacted . I'm not dead sure of the details , but a friend rents a small old place near me and because it wouldn't pass the standards they did a deal and the landlord paid for a solid new cast iron stove while she paid for the installation .

She's sensibly up in Paris in the warm now, but when she comes back she told me it'll take two days to warm the walls ...

Dark o'clock and the tractors are still at it , lit up like Christmas trees !

[Sky'sGoneOut]

She's sensibly up in Paris in the warm now, but when she comes back she told me it'll take two days to warm the walls ...

It will. I'm in a massive old 12 room (not including the disused basement which were the servants' quarters) detached house with thick stone walls. Whenever I return after being away over the Winter it takes at least a couple of days to get my room warm again. Living in what used to be the kitchen/pantry doesn't help because it means two of my walls are covered in large, deep cupboards where the original inhabitants would have stored their food, which is great for storage but it makes warming them up even harder. It's a fabulous, fascinating old building which could be beautiful with a landlord prepared to do it up, but then I wouldn't be able to afford to live in it.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Always suspected Harries was a wrong un, the above just confirms it.

[gilsey]

We knew that from the beginning, when she did that embarrassing scripted Q&A with Johnson. Yes-woman.

[gilsey]

[gilsey]

Snowing here today, though it isn't settling too much.

Did that change? Serious in Kendal & Ambleside apparently, plenty of stranded day-trippers I expect.

Just f***ing freezing here.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Still not that much here, but I am near the coast which likely affects things.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Voters have been betrayed on Brexit and immigration. I stand ready to deliver - Keir Starmer

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/1 ... migration/

Margaret Thatcher sought to drag Britain out of its stupor by setting loose our natural entrepreneurialism.

Fuck off Keir, she sold of our national assets and social housing, wasted billions of North Sea oil revenue, replaced pay rises with credit, made a wasteland of much of the North, and oversaw record unemployment while a few yuppies in London got rich.

They have squandered economic opportunities and failed to realise the possibilities of Brexit.

What Brexit opportunities? The opportunity to rejoin the EU like three quarters of your voters want?

Across Britain there are people who feel disillusioned, frustrated, angry, worried.

You've got that fucking right.

[frog222]

I wondered what CM would make of the LOTO's screed in his new house paper ,

found this --

[frog222]

Opened firefox to see what he wrote --



It is too easy to look at Britain today and throw your hands up in despair. Families across the country are bombarded with daily reminders of our current malaise: crumbling public services that no longer serve the public, families weighed down by the anxiety of spiralling mortgage bills and food prices, neighbourhoods plagued by crime and anti-social behaviour. Any one of these individually would be cause for outrage. Taken together they merge into something more insidious: the idea that our country no longer works for those it is supposed to.

That sense of a once great country now set on a path of decline has been sharpened by our political culture. The vast majority of the public don’t think about Westminster much. Why would they? At a time when people are looking for answers to the deep challenges of our age, they see a politics too large in its hectoring and interfering, too small in its ambition and ability. In these difficult conditions, the current Government resembles nothing so much as the sinking Mary Rose: overburdened, incompetently handled, plunging into the depths.

Every moment of meaningful change in modern British politics begins with the realisation that politics must act in service of the British people, rather than dictating to them. Margaret Thatcher sought to drag Britain out of its stupor by setting loose our natural entrepreneurialism. Tony Blair reimagined a stale, outdated Labour Party into one that could seize the optimism of the late 90s. A century ago, Clement Attlee wrote that Labour must be a party of duty and patriotism, not abstract theory. To build a “New Jerusalem” meant first casting off the mind-forged manacles. That lesson is as true today as it was then.

It is in this sense of public service that Labour has changed dramatically in the last three years. The course of shock therapy we gave our party had one purpose: to ensure that we were once again rooted in the priorities, the concerns and the dreams of ordinary British people. To put country before party.

None of that was easy but it was necessary. Often, it meant taking the path of most resistance. It meant not just listening to those who felt unable to vote for us but understanding them and acting. The public do not have outlandish or unreasonable expectations. They expect taxpayer money to be spent wisely, our security and our borders to be prioritised and a politics that serves them rather than itself. On each of these, we are now ready to deliver.

While we were moving back towards voters, the Tory Party has been steadily drifting away. Years of sowing empty promises, cynical falsehoods and false dawns is now reaping inevitable consequence. The Tories have talked the talk on fiscal prudence while wasting untold billions, weighing the country down with debt and raising the tax burden to a record high. They have squandered economic opportunities and failed to realise the possibilities of Brexit.

They will bequeath public finances more akin to a minefield than a solid foundation. Labour’s iron-clad fiscal rules will set this straight – but it will not be quick or easy. There will be many on my own side who will feel frustrated by the difficult choices we will have to make. This is non-negotiable: every penny must be accounted for. The public finances must be fixed so we can get Britain growing and make people feel better off.

Changing Labour has also meant ridding us of the nonsensical idea that some subjects are simply off limits for us. I profoundly disagree with the idea Labour should not be talking about immigration or small boats crossings. These are matters of serious public concern and deserve to be treated as such. This is a government that was elected on a promise that immigration would “come down” and the British people would “always [be] in control”. For immigration to then triple is more than just yet another failure – it is a betrayal of their promises.

When people see the Prime Minister allowing companies to pay workers from abroad 20 per cent less than those already here, they are right to conclude that the Tories are not just unserious about reducing immigration but actively driving it up. Labour would scrap this policy immediately. The Prime Minister should follow our lead.

Likewise, when people see government ministers wasting their time on gimmicks like Rwanda, they are right to conclude they are more interested in talking about small boat crossings than stopping them. Labour would use the full force of Britain’s intelligence and policing to smash the criminal gangs growing fat on the misery of human trafficking, destroying their evil business model. The Government should do the same.

Across Britain there are people who feel disillusioned, frustrated, angry, worried. Many of them have always voted Conservative but feel that their party has left them. I understand that. I saw that with my own party and acted to fix it. But I also understand that many will still be uncertain about Labour. I ask them to take a look at us again. If you believe that Britain needs stability, order, security then Labour is the party for you. If you believe there are precious things in our way of life, our communities and our environment that it is our responsibility to protect and preserve for future generations, Labour agrees with you. If you believe that this country needs change to get back to greatness, this Labour Party stands ready to deliver for you.

Britain’s priorities are once again Labour’s priorities. Delivering them is going to require all our efforts. That’s why we extend the hand of friendship to you, no matter where you are or who you have voted for in the past. National renewal demands it. It is only together that we will build the better future we all want.

Sir Keir Starmer is leader of the Labour Party

------------------------------------------------

One of my favourite bits -- UK's been so successful in beating the Kinanhan monopoly of the drug trade, county lines etcetc, yeah smallboatsmugglers is easypeasy !

Labour would use the full force of Britain’s intelligence and policing to smash the criminal gangs growing fat on the misery of human trafficking, destroying their evil business model.

[refitman]

Woke up to snow here

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Woke up to snow here

Same here. Not much, maybe a centimetre, but it's nice and scrunchy. Looks like AK's neck of the woods got the best of it.

[AnatolyKasparov]

RIP Glenys Kinnock.

The majority she got when elected as am MEP in 1994 remains the numerically highest in history for a UK constituency.

[frog222]

This popped up earlier , a good listen on Thatcher (and Keith Joseph)

[tinyclanger2]

Whenever I think of MT I think of Elvis Costello

[Sky'sGoneOut]

RIP Glenys Kinnock.

I remember she was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s a few years back. My heart goes out to them.

[tinyclanger2]

In other news am watching something Norwegian on Netflix and want to be implanted with the power of Norwegian language fluency. A wonderful language with a pleasing melodiousness and which is perfect for laconic delivery.

[refitman]

I spent today watching a 4 hour video on Youtube plagiarism by Hbomberguy (he did a really good video on Andrew Wakefield and MMR a couple of years ago). It starts out as kind of a “these people are really bad at their job” video, but ends as a really thoughtful piece on the cynical erasure of queer voices in online media.

If you’re so inclined (and have quite a lot of free time), I would highly recommend it

[Sky'sGoneOut]

In other news am watching something Norwegian on Netflix and want to be implanted with the power of Norwegian language fluency. A wonderful language with a pleasing melodiousness and which is perfect for laconic delivery.

I went out with a Swede for a few years so picked up some Swedish. The Scandi languages are all so similar (apart from Finnish) that they can pretty much understand each other but to an amateur like me the Norwegian pronunciation is so different I struggle to comprehend even simple sentences. Saying that they all swear the same so if a Norwegian asked me what time the next train was I'd probably struggle but if they told me to go fuck myself I'd be fine.

[frog222]

I worked with Scandis for several years but the only bit I remember is snuskhummer !

https://www.wordsense.eu/snuskhummer/

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Ha ha. Snusk is a great word, to me it sounds cute but if you hear a Scandi saying it they'll invariably have their face screwed up while looking at something, or someone, completely disgusting. On occasion that was me.

[frog222]

LOL !

[frog222]

Life can be a battle with the cold, but at least it's not a financial one as for the brits financing those 'competitive energy providers' !

Years ago my son re-roofed one end of the house, with 30cms of 'cellulose wool' blown in. When it's not particularly cold my body heat alone can raise the temperature in my small bedroom .

The kitchen underneath is another matter but I now leave an electric heater all night to counter the cold a bit, and then blast the woodstove in the morning --



That's alright as long as I can cut the wood, but I'm still able, as it keeps me a little bit fit too, nothing excessively sporty tho

[Sky'sGoneOut]

The Humanity Bureau

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6143568/

In a future ecologically devastated America (something to do with radiation) Nicolas Cage is an agent of the Humanity Bureau tasked with deporting people deemed to be a drain on the state to a place called 'New Eden'. Cage discovers that this New Eden he's been deporting people to is not quite the utopia he was led to believe (duh) and goes rogue.

This film is objectively terrible, it's cheap and shoddily made. Half of it is a road movie yet, presumably for budgetary reasons, they decided to use the old trick of having him pretend to drive a car while fake scenery passes by. It may be CGI scenery but it still looked really shit. The script is godawful with baddies going from evil meanies to comedy buffoons at the drop of a hat, and the political message it's trying to convey is all over the place. Yet somehow none of that detracts from how much fun it is, it actually adds to it. I mean in the opening scenes Cage shoots an old Trump supporter in the head. What's not to like? Apparently the old down and out used to be a governor of somewhere or other and still has MAGA posters on his wall and a picture of him having dinner with the orange one. Aha! you say to yourself, I see where the politics of this is going, mad old Trump fanatic and ecological ruin. But wait! It turns out he is right about New Eden and true freedom loving, flag waving patriots are trying to expose the truth and fight against a despotic government. A despotic government which is disposing of the economically unviable which you would have thought future Trump fanatics would applaud. Was this written by a confused 15 year old Republican? Who cares. Cage, with a mother and child in tow makes a run for the Canadian border which he has been informed has been walled off (by the Canadians). He's also told he'll be travelling through scary badlands full of bandits and such like. In the event, presumably by sheer chance, he only meets really nice helpful people who give him directions, provisions and equipment without asking anything in return despite them living in a wasteland. It's all complete nonsense but I loved it.

On the Cageometer I'd give it a 6/10.

This was made a few years back so Cage is still unconvincingly dying his hair and in this one he's mercifully beard free. He doesn't go insane at any point and as far as I remember the bloke mentioned above is the only person he kills.

If you ever find yourself at a loose end while drinking (there's no way anyone should watch this sober) it's daft enough to be an enjoyable use/waste of an hour and a half.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

The kitchen underneath is another matter but I now leave an electric heater all night to counter the cold a bit, and then blast the woodstove in the morning

As you poison all around with your particulate pollution .

Is that a sprinkling of paprika on those eggs?

[Sky'sGoneOut]

In other film news the Daily Wire (Conservative tabloid site) tried to make a documentary about trans women dominating women's sport only to find women's sport in America has strict policies about admitting men so they made a fictional film about it instead.



All of this is so fucking depressing.