Friday 2nd January 2015

[refitman]

Morning all.

[Toby Latimer]

ScreenShot00191.jpg (125.45 KiB) Viewed 17464 times

Further to the 30 year rule revelations the other day on how the vermin under Thatcher knew all along about the devastating impact the poll tax would have, but carried on anyway. Some comments from Richard Murphy

And one day, no doubt, we will find that the suffering of the bedroom tax was deliberate.

And that the misery caused by cuts was well known.

And that the creation of low paid, zero hours work was consistent with an economic master plan to shift power from labour to capital.

And that the NHS really is subject to a privatisation plan.

All we have to do is learn from the past and realise that the same mentality prevails now. We hardly need to read runes: we just have to be logical in our thinking to understand that what is being said is not what is meant.

I am quite convinced this government knows what it is doing is not necessary. I am equally convinced that what is happening is what it wants

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2014 ... by-choice/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Toby Latimer]

A little tribute to the Conservatives new poster campaign launched today, snappily titled "Stay On The Road"

[youtube]AWtCittJyr0[/youtube]

[RogerOThornhill]

Morning all.

Guardian seems to be offline...is this the day that Beta was originally scheduled to go live then?

[refitman]

Morning all.

Guardian seems to be offline...is this the day that Beta was originally scheduled to go live then?

Anything that has already been 'Beta-fied' is there (Sport, Travel). It's just the rest of the site

[letsskiptotheleft]

Shame The Guardian appears to be down this morning, would have been good to re-post nights hilarious Clegg piece, and the comments that followed it..

This from the Torygraph isn't so amusing, though he does start to cry when remembering the first time he happened to chance upon the fragrant Miriam, you have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... polls.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[yahyah]

He made the comments in a joint interview alongside his wife.

Despite claiming he would never use his wife for PR purposes, it is the first interview they have done together and comes just five months before the general election.

Self awareness isn't one of Clegg's strong points

[Toby Latimer]

The Groan is back up, more's the pity

[ephemerid]

Paul Lewis (money man) has Tweeted this -

Of 2.9 Million homes built since 2000, 2.5M (86%) bought by landlords and 400,000 by owner-occupiers.

Home ownership is now at its lowest since 1988.

[rebeccariots2]

MP persuaded to change view on 'bedroom tax' by Clacton resident
http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co. ... _resident/
Former Tory Mr Carswell supported the bedroom tax before defecting to UKIP, but has now voted against it.

“Having previously thought it was a good idea, I have now changed my mind,” he said.

“I met a man who lived in Branston Road in Clacton. He suffers from mental health issues and had lost a loved one.

“As a result of the bedroom tax, he was in danger of being thrown out of what the Government regards as a house, but what he calls his home.

“You can’t shuffle people around like they are numbers on a spreadsheet.

“This is a classic case of something that makes sense to people in Whitehall, but doesn’t take into account that you are dealing with human beings.”

Are we supposed to believe this was the first time it had occurred to him that this was affecting human beings, and that these were people's 'homes'? And was it really the first occasion he met a constituent affected by the bedroom tax?

'You can't shuffle people around like they are numbers on a spreadsheet'. That's exactly what the government he was a member of has done since day 1 ....

He really must believe his voters are super stupid if they accept this explanation.

[rebeccariots2]

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 22: AVON
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/0 ... um=twitter

I hope he's wrong about this one.

Bristol North West
Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A Labour seat throughout the Blair/Brown years Charlotte Leslie did well to win this last time. It was due to a huge rise in the LibDem vote and a collapse in the Labour vote from 47% to 26%. Labour’s chances of winning this seat back depend entirely on whether they can win those LibDem voters back. Local opinion seems to suggest that Charlotte Leslie may well squeak home.

I hadn't realised things are considered tight for Rees-Mogg ....

North East Somerset
Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
It’s unthinkable to imagine Parliament without Jacob Rees-Mogg, but there’s no mistake that he’s under threat from Labour here. They held the seat from 1997 to 2010 and will be going after the substantial LibDem vote.

He's also predicting a Labour gain in Kingswood.

[rebeccariots2]

Phil Johnson has decided to go public with a recording of his exchange with Dame Butler Sloss re 'that' Bishop
https://audioboom.com/boos/2765739-phil ... ce=twitter

Having listened to it .... I'm really disappointed (stronger words are available) at how directive and, IMO, hectoring she is. She talks over him ... interrupts. It's not good. Thank goodness she isn't heading up that inquiry.

[letsskiptotheleft]

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 22: AVON
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/0 ... um=twitter

I hope he's wrong about this one.

Bristol North West
Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A Labour seat throughout the Blair/Brown years Charlotte Leslie did well to win this last time. It was due to a huge rise in the LibDem vote and a collapse in the Labour vote from 47% to 26%. Labour’s chances of winning this seat back depend entirely on whether they can win those LibDem voters back. Local opinion seems to suggest that Charlotte Leslie may well squeak home.

I hadn't realised things are considered tight for Rees-Mogg ....

North East Somerset
Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
It’s unthinkable to imagine Parliament without Jacob Rees-Mogg, but there’s no mistake that he’s under threat from Labour here. They held the seat from 1997 to 2010 and will be going after the substantial LibDem vote.

He's also predicting a Labour gain in Kingswood.

Broadly gone along with Dale's predictions, he isn't partisan, I like him, for a Tory, but I do reckon Leslie will be under pressure, it has been a Labour seat, question is will it reverse to type, Stephen Williams too I reckon will be under more of a cosh, not literally, unfortunately! The scalp of Chris Skidmore would be splendid, he, one of the five authors of Britannia Unchained, a Thatcherite ode on streroids.. Funnily enough for one who says British workers are lazy bastards he hasn't been too industrious, strange that.

[rebeccariots2]

UKIP Councillor Refuses To Back Janice Atkinson
http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/ukip/ukip ... inson-4186
... Councillor David Baker who represents Romney Marsh said “I do not want to be tarred with the same brush as Ms Atkinson. I have decided to make it absolutely clear that I cannot support her in her campaign.”

Atkinson has been selected to represent UKIP in the Folkestone and Hythe constituency in 2015, however Baker claims large numbers of constituents are quite rightly worried over her selection.

Baker said "There are several reasons, two are because of her comments where she referred to a lady from Thailand as a ‘ting tong’ and of her finger gestures to protesters.I do not consider these actions to be representative of a PPC in Folkestone and Hythe."

[AnatolyKasparov]

I think that Leslie will hold unfortunately, the fact Labour finished third last time will make the difference.

Overall, the Dale predictions are a bit of a curate's egg (as these things are by their general nature, tbf) A clean sweep for the Tories in Cornwall is highly unlikely IMO - Andrew George's status as one of the most "rebellious" LibDems should help a fair bit, for example - and in Kent I expect Farage to break the blue monotony at least (that Ashcroft poll never mentioned him by name, and is thus unreliable in this instance)

[rebeccariots2]

I think that Leslie will hold unfortunately, the fact Labour finished third last time will make the difference.

Overall, the Dale predictions are a bit of a curate's egg (as these things are by their general nature, tbf) A clean sweep for the Tories in Cornwall is highly unlikely IMO - Andrew George's status as one of the most "rebellious" LibDems should help a fair bit, for example - and in Kent I expect Farage to break the blue monotony at least (that Ashcroft poll never mentioned him by name, and is thus unreliable in this instance)

Yes, I think Iain Dale himself regards these as a curate's egg ... he's just having a bit of political fun and they are quite enjoyable to read and spark discussion from.

I hope Andrew George does hang on ... he has been rebellious ... possibly one of the few Lib Dems, perhaps the only one, that deserves to be reelected IMO. Badgers and cattle in that part of the world will have a better chance if he is - not to mention people.

[letsskiptotheleft]

I just tweeted Skidmore, asking him if he went along with Dale's analysis..

[Willow904]

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 22: AVON
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/0 ... um=twitter

I hope he's wrong about this one.

Bristol North West
Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A Labour seat throughout the Blair/Brown years Charlotte Leslie did well to win this last time. It was due to a huge rise in the LibDem vote and a collapse in the Labour vote from 47% to 26%. Labour’s chances of winning this seat back depend entirely on whether they can win those LibDem voters back. Local opinion seems to suggest that Charlotte Leslie may well squeak home.

I hadn't realised things are considered tight for Rees-Mogg ....

North East Somerset
Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
It’s unthinkable to imagine Parliament without Jacob Rees-Mogg, but there’s no mistake that he’s under threat from Labour here. They held the seat from 1997 to 2010 and will be going after the substantial LibDem vote.

He's also predicting a Labour gain in Kingswood.

I'm trying not to hope too much about Rees-Mogg. The boundary change last time brought in solid blue voters from Wiltshire to turn it into a proper Tory seat rather than the marginal it was previously, so Labour holding it before doesn't mean as much as it might. Two things I would add to the analysis is that the local Libdem council has had some high profile disasters which may put some potential Libdem voters off and also the Ukip share will almost certainly increase - they've been active locally. So yes, Rees-Mogg is vulnerable (his enthusiasm for fracking will cost him some votes in the Mendip villages too) but not as vulnerable as I'd like, alas.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Dale predicts will get a lot more interesting when he moves onto the Midlands, not that they haven't been so far, but that area is a true battle ground, I look forward to those.

[StephenDolan]

Dale predicts will get a lot more interesting when he moves onto the Midlands, not that they haven't been so far, but that area is a true battle ground, I look forward to those.

Definitely. Get down to the nitty gritty. As opposed to say Merseyside!

[letsskiptotheleft]

Dale predicts will get a lot more interesting when he moves onto the Midlands, not that they haven't been so far, but that area is a true battle ground, I look forward to those.

Definitely. Get down to the nitty gritty. As opposed to say Merseyside!

And also, Wales. Though there are a few unwelcome Tories I'd like to see the back of.

[letsskiptotheleft]

NicholasB doesn't get any less tiresome does he.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Dale predicts will get a lot more interesting when he moves onto the Midlands, not that they haven't been so far, but that area is a true battle ground, I look forward to those.

Definitely. Get down to the nitty gritty. As opposed to say Merseyside!

Here's one for you Stephen, and everyone else to be honest.

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ ... WirralWest" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[StephenDolan]

Dale predicts will get a lot more interesting when he moves onto the Midlands, not that they haven't been so far, but that area is a true battle ground, I look forward to those.

Definitely. Get down to the nitty gritty. As opposed to say Merseyside!

Here's one for you Stephen, and everyone else to be honest.

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ ... WirralWest" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There's plenty of traditional Blue voters not happy at all at the thought of fracking anywhere near the River Dee. She's toast.

[rebeccariots2]

Fraser Nelson ‏@FraserNelson 9m9 minutes ago Community of Madrid, Spain
Which Tory MPs will repeat Osborne's porkie about ‘halving’ the deficit? My blog: http://specc.ie/1tHdgMa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He's really not giving up on this, is he ... Fraser Nelson that is. This particular porkie has got right under his skin - so to speak.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Definitely. Get down to the nitty gritty. As opposed to say Merseyside!

Here's one for you Stephen, and everyone else to be honest.

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ ... WirralWest" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There's plenty of traditional Blue voters not happy at all at the thought of fracking anywhere near the River Dee. She's toast.

God I hope so, Smith's shrieking harpy.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/20 ... ornes-cuts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Balls is one sharp cookie, please, let this be the year he wipes Osborne's smirk off his chops.

After all, Darling isn't coming back.

[rebeccariots2]

Definitely. Get down to the nitty gritty. As opposed to say Merseyside!

Here's one for you Stephen, and everyone else to be honest.

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ ... WirralWest" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There's plenty of traditional Blue voters not happy at all at the thought of fracking anywhere near the River Dee. She's toast.

I know that's not very grown up - to dance with glee at the thought of her downfall - but in this case - double dancing with glee probably won't match what I will feel if she goes. And if there are any people lurking who want to think that's complacent ... it isn't ... it's desperately wanting someone who has been so vulgarly callous about the impact of her and her colleagues actions on decent people who find themselves needing social security ... to get their come uppance.

[rebeccariots2]

Cameron to launch election campaign with controversial deficit claim
Poster claiming Conservatives have halved the deficit is called into question as parties prepare for long battle to win over voters
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... CMP=twt_gu

Ah ... now I see why Fraser Nelson is so exercised about this claim today .... I hope he stays on the case, and loudly.

[danesclose]

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 22: AVON
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/0 ... um=twitter

I hope he's wrong about this one.

Bristol North West
Sitting MP: Charlotte Leslie (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A Labour seat throughout the Blair/Brown years Charlotte Leslie did well to win this last time. It was due to a huge rise in the LibDem vote and a collapse in the Labour vote from 47% to 26%. Labour’s chances of winning this seat back depend entirely on whether they can win those LibDem voters back. Local opinion seems to suggest that Charlotte Leslie may well squeak home.

I hadn't realised things are considered tight for Rees-Mogg ....

North East Somerset
Sitting MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
It’s unthinkable to imagine Parliament without Jacob Rees-Mogg, but there’s no mistake that he’s under threat from Labour here. They held the seat from 1997 to 2010 and will be going after the substantial LibDem vote.

He's also predicting a Labour gain in Kingswood.

I'm trying not to hope too much about Rees-Mogg. The boundary change last time brought in solid blue voters from Wiltshire to turn it into a proper Tory seat rather than the marginal it was previously, so Labour holding it before doesn't mean as much as it might. Two things I would add to the analysis is that the local Libdem council has had some high profile disasters which may put some potential Libdem voters off and also the Ukip share will almost certainly increase - they've been active locally. So yes, Rees-Mogg is vulnerable (his enthusiasm for fracking will cost him some votes in the Mendip villages too) but not as vulnerable as I'd like, alas.

Morning all. Electoral Calculus have Labour gaining NE Somerset:
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... rth%20East" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TechnicalEphemera]

Can somebody tweet Robinson and the C4 equivalent with.

Cameron launches election campaign with a massive lie about halving the deficit. Hope you point that out.

[StephenDolan]

Here's one for you Stephen, and everyone else to be honest.

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ ... WirralWest" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There's plenty of traditional Blue voters not happy at all at the thought of fracking anywhere near the River Dee. She's toast.

God I hope so, Smith's shrieking harpy.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/20 ... ornes-cuts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Balls is one sharp cookie, please, let this be the year he wipes Osborne's smirk off his chops.

After all, Darling isn't coming back.

I notice Joe Benton is listed with a mere 100% chance of winning. That's one plum future seat.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Electoral calculus also have Worcester down as a Labour gain, take that, 3,000 majority for Tories, has to be doable?

[StephenDolan]

http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot. ... again.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Worth a read. Especially like " If you think about the centre ground as a point in the political spectrum most people's views are located, you're treating with a nonsensical chimera. A majority does, wrongly, believe austerity to be necessary. And yet are also appalled by the excess of big business, know life is tough, and expect something to be done about it. They also want the NHS protected and the housing crisis eased. You might argue this positioning is well to the left of the government's impoverished small-state ambitions. "

[citizenJA]

NicholasB doesn't get any less tiresome does he.

Just read the responses to terminal tiremsomes - I'm happier & more knowledgeable doing this.

Good afternoon, everyone.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Bound to happen this, to a certain extent, the SNP are neither as radical or left wing as they like to make out.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3649107" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[citizenJA]

http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot. ... again.html

Worth a read. Especially like " If you think about the centre ground as a point in the political spectrum most people's views are located, you're treating with a nonsensical chimera. A majority does, wrongly, believe austerity to be necessary. And yet are also appalled by the excess of big business, know life is tough, and expect something to be done about it. They also want the NHS protected and the housing crisis eased. You might argue this positioning is well to the left of the government's impoverished small-state ambitions. "

(my bold) Brilliant indeed.

I'm always reminded of the Ragged Trousered Philanthropists - It's been a couple years since I've read it & I'm paraphrasing:

I thought talking to people & explaining what's going on would be enough, people would understand because I'm telling the truth & that truth can be verified. People aren't always reasonable.

Don't misunderstand me - I'm not saying people are stupid or unreasonable like psychosis - it's part of the human condition, I'm a member of the human race & I acknowledge we have traits causing us all frustration as well as joy.

[Willow904]

Morning all. Electoral Calculus have Labour gaining NE Somerset:
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... rth%20East" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oooh...that's more encouraging. It would be really funny if the Labour candidate, an openly gay American, unseated Rees-Mogg. You couldn't get a bigger contrast between two candidates! The local Tories would be most upset - 5 years of stroppy letters to the local paper would probably be the result. There was one person who wrote nearly every week about the previous Labour MP's expenses claims. When the expenses scandal finally broke he wasn't even on the list!

[citizenJA]

'Controversial deficit claim'

Nothing controversial about the claim - it's a lie.

[citizenJA]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... servatives

The headline slogan of the poster, “Let’s Stay on the Road to a Stronger Economy”, is superimposed over an image of a long straight road running through countryside, which is blended into a union flag. It goes on to list the government’s achievements as being “1.75 million more people in work”, “760,000 more businesses” and “the deficit halved”.

The deficit claim had already been questioned, as this is only true if measured as a proportion of national income. In cash terms, it has only been reduced by about a third.

George Osborne, the chancellor, will be promoting the campaign launch on Friday as he visits a business in the West Midlands.

Dang. I wasn't invited.

[AnatolyKasparov]

NicholasB doesn't get any less tiresome does he.

Obsessing over a Lucy Powell appearance on that well known pro-Labour programme - the World at One - which literally nobody else anywhere has even mentioned.

Starting as he means to go on this year, I expect

[rebeccariots2]

Chuka Umunna ‏@ChukaUmunna 22m22 minutes ago
93% of those aged 25 or older already worked for their employer before starting their apprenticeship http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1068881 ... -as-one-in" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Surely not ... that would suggest that employers saw a way to save some money rather than provide new opportunities for apprentices ... they wouldn't, would they? No doubt Harper or one of the other spokespeople will be along to insist cement is double cream before long.

[rebeccariots2]

First headline on WATO is about the 'porkie' on the Conservative's first election campaign poster. Fraser Nelson - editor of a Conservative magazine - being cited and interviewed as not understanding why they feel the need to mislead in this way.

Shapps is truly spoiling us ... and so early on.

[TheGrimSqueaker]

NicholasB doesn't get any less tiresome does he.

NickyB was tolerable so long as he just kept to his comedy psephology but, when his posts diverted into other areas and revealed him as a spiteful, vindictive little Tory of the worst kind, I lost patience with him; I couldn't even be bothered to keep needling him, despite the fact I knew that wound up Notso, so was effectively double bubble.

Afternoon all.

[Hobiejoe]

Crikey

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015 ... llegations

And the last line contains a tantalising little nugget.....

[StephenDolan]

First headline on WATO is about the 'porkie' on the Conservative's first election campaign poster. Fraser Nelson - editor of a Conservative magazine - being cited and interviewed as not understanding why they feel the need to mislead in this way.

Shapps is truly spoiling us ... and so early on.

It's baffling that Nelson holds IDS in such high regard considering the latter's frequent hard and fast statistics misrepresentations.

[mikems]

So where is OpenSeas?

[rebeccariots2]

So where is OpenSeas?

If my memory serves me properly ... it was reported here as he / she deciding to join us from January 5th ... so we can be expectant for a few more days. I assume that's when the G is intending to go fully Beta. Oh joyous start to 2015.

[rebeccariots2]

Michael Dugher retweeted
bruce dessau ‏@brucedes 2h2 hours ago
Hasn't anyone in Tory Central Office ever heard of Talking Heads? " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lovely reminder. And the poster image is uncannily similar ....

[letsskiptotheleft]

Lib Dems have apparently called the Tory poster ''the road to hell''

[letsskiptotheleft]

http://www.libdemvoice.org/malcolm-bruc ... 44017.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;