Monday 5th January 2015

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 6:48 pm

Spacedone wrote:
frightful_oik wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:Bear with me ... can anyone explain what this top tweet here means? Thank you very much in advance.

He's taken out the Scotland figures I assume.
He's added up each region of England + Wales (which is actually Wales + South West England in the figures) and divided the VI percentage from each by the number of regions to get an average without Scotland.

The VI for Wales + South West England is apparently 38% Con and 30% Lab but this is based on a sample size of 160, half that of any other region in the poll (apart from Scotland) so the margin of error will be larger.

It's also worth pointing out that when they did the weighting they weighted the North figure (where Labour are easily the strongest) down by twice as much as they did the South East or the Midlands, even though it was already quite a bit lower than either of them.

Thanks very much. I've been trying to understand how the 38% shares for Con and Lab were arrived at - and what might be read into that equal share. Lumping Wales & South West England together seems barmy to me ... and given SW England destined to give higher figures for Conservative. But I freely admit I don't get the intricacies of polling weightings and splits and biffle boffle.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 6:53 pm

Janan Ganesh ‏@JananGanesh 46 mins46 minutes ago
Negative campaigns only work when they are subtle and true. My column in tomorrow's FT http://on.ft.com/1Dq08eI" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Even Osborne's mate having a dig at him it seems. Can't read FT so don't know if he's targeting Labour with this too.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 6:55 pm

ChrisDean wrote:Sorry folks, my computer skills are very poor.

Headline is "Cheltenham MP Martin Horwood blasts Gloucestershire Hospitals after first hand experience of weekend crisis".

That is an utterly appalling situation described in the Echo's report. Martin Horwood is a Lib Dem MP ... so he is blasting his own government. No doubt the Lib Dems will try and wriggle around pretending the chaos in the NHS is nothing to with them ... I really hope they get their come uppance for their failure to stand up to Cameron and Lansley's wreck the NHS bill.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 6:58 pm

Yvette Cooper ‏@YvetteCooperMP 11m11 minutes ago
TMay in HoC just let slip that a criminal assets policy which #dodgydossier claims costs £19m is actually Govt policy & saves money instead!

They don't even lie competently.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:03 pm

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 11h 11 hours ago
EXCL: David Cameron saw in 2015 ‘dad dancing’ at bash hosted by Blur's Alex James, reveals @danwootton http://sunpl.us/6014aXq2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:12 pm

Spacedone wrote:
Janan Ganesh ‏@JananGanesh 46 mins46 minutes ago
Negative campaigns only work when they are subtle and true. My column in tomorrow's FT http://on.ft.com/1Dq08eI" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Even Osborne's mate having a dig at him it seems. Can't read FT so don't know if he's targeting Labour with this too.

It's actually based on advice from Tony Blair (whoa, steady there) on the risks of negative and non factual campaigning ... and takes in both Labour and Conservative - and increasingly other parties.

Extract:

The prime minister and his Conservatives want to frame Labour as agents of economic chaos led by a maladroit loser. That man, Ed Miliband, will outdo them for shrillness. He weaves a Dickensian story of Tories as chortling, top-hatted tormentors of the poor with a special animus for the National Health Service.
Believe the hype and Britain is going to have to choose between clowns and bastards in May.
But you do not believe the hype, which is Mr Blair’s point. Leave aside for a moment the principled arguments against this kind of negative politics, though they abound. Yes, it fouls the public space. It brings Britain closer to American levels of political rancour. We may not have partisan television channels but, in social media, left and right already wallow in their own ghettos of certainty. In recent squabbles over fiscal policy and the NHS, there are even early signs of the erosion of a common base of facts. Everything, but everything, is up for dispute. That way lies nihilism — and, for the voter, confusion.

ChrisDean · Post by **ChrisDean** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:12 pm

The likes of Martin Horwood really get my goat...and that comes from someone who has voted for the Liberals all their life....except for 2010 when Gordon Brown was the only choice on the fragile but positive, economic recovery.

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:14 pm

Ambulance staff going on strike 29th January, says Unison.

Major incidents declared in 4 district generals with A&Es in England.

Hunt has told Roy Lilley that he is "planning to write" to NHS England about bed occupancy/discharge planning.

Currently, he is in A&E out of hours hiding behind the tree in reception whilst drinking water to cure himself.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:19 pm

Marvellous.

Just watching C4 News and Matt Hancock accuses Chris Leslie of wanting to politicise the OBR by getting them to cost policies!

Like you've done with the civil service then Matt?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:23 pm

An MP has called for elected police and crime commissioners to be scrapped.

North Cornwall MP Dan Rogerson said the money spent on PCCs would be better used to fund more frontline policing.

The Lib Dem MP said he had previously supported the creation of the role "to see if it works" but now believed a policing board of local councillors would provide better scrutiny...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30677921

Another about turn ... disowning of previous votes and support. And the additional irony of scrapping PCCs being one of Labour's policies / costed savings.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:36 pm

Good gawd ... I've just been reading Clegg's offering over at LD Towers. For someone who so desperately wants another coalition he's splattering around the political insults in a very slapdash way. You might almost think he didn't care ... that he's already made up his mind, and his plans, for who he'd like to go to bed with again.

Labour and Tory majorities would be a massive risk to our economy and our public services.

The Liberal Democrats will borrow less than Labour and cut less than the Conservatives. And because we are cutting less and spending less on debt interest we will be able to ensure the NHS has the full funding that it needs.

And only the Liberal Democrats can keep the government in the centre ground and stop the two old parties veering off to the extremes of left and right.

But they’re not the only risk. UKIP, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid all, in their own way, threaten our recovery. They all pedal their own brand of divisive populism based on grievance, blame and fear. They won’t act in the national interest. They all want to put their narrow claims above the needs of the country.

Just imagine a Labour minority government propped up by the SNP or a Tory minority propped up by UKIP?

Or either party constantly having to go on bended knee to a rag tag mob of nationalists, unionists, Greens and Respect MPs to beg for votes. It would be mayhem as everyone scrambles around for a bargain like the first day of the January sales.

Messy. Unstable. Unfair.

http://www.libdemvoice.org/nick-cleggs- ... 44070.html

Editing to add: BTL is not impressed either - they also think he's spouting crap.

stuart moran 5th Jan '15 - 4:53pm
was that supposed to make me want to vote Lib Dem again…….appalling speech

David-1 5th Jan '15 - 5:34pm
This is thoroughly incoherent. You can’t in the same breath call coalitions “Messy. Unstable. Unfair” and at the same time demand a new coalition government. You can’t say that your prospective coalition partners are incapable of governing and at the same time say that you want to be in government with them. You can’t be both for and against the same thing — unless you’re Nick Clegg, in which case it’s easy.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:46 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Marvellous.

Just watching C4 News and Matt Hancock accuses Chris Leslie of wanting to politicise the OBR by getting them to cost policies!

Like you've done with the civil service then Matt?

I saw most of the interview. Hancock's an arsehole - as you've noted - and I was rather less than thrilled by the interviewer who seemed pretty determined to prevent any sort of rational debate. Leslie was actually very good and his plea to have a debate on a factual level seemed to go over the heads of the other two. Very, very disappointing from C4. I hoped for better.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 7:53 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:Good gawd ... I've just been reading Clegg's offering over at LD Towers. For someone who so desperately wants another coalition he's splattering around the political insults in a very slapdash way. You might almost think he didn't care ... that he's already made up his mind, and his plans, for who he'd like to go to bed with again.

Labour and Tory majorities would be a massive risk to our economy and our public services.

The Liberal Democrats will borrow less than Labour and cut less than the Conservatives. And because we are cutting less and spending less on debt interest we will be able to ensure the NHS has the full funding that it needs.

And only the Liberal Democrats can keep the government in the centre ground and stop the two old parties veering off to the extremes of left and right.

But they’re not the only risk. UKIP, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid all, in their own way, threaten our recovery. They all pedal their own brand of divisive populism based on grievance, blame and fear. They won’t act in the national interest. They all want to put their narrow claims above the needs of the country.

Just imagine a Labour minority government propped up by the SNP or a Tory minority propped up by UKIP?

Or either party constantly having to go on bended knee to a rag tag mob of nationalists, unionists, Greens and Respect MPs to beg for votes. It would be mayhem as everyone scrambles around for a bargain like the first day of the January sales.

Messy. Unstable. Unfair.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/nick-cleggs- ... 44070.html

Editing to add: BTL is not impressed either - they also think he's spouting crap.
stuart moran 5th Jan '15 - 4:53pm
was that supposed to make me want to vote Lib Dem again…….appalling speech

David-1 5th Jan '15 - 5:34pm
This is thoroughly incoherent. You can’t in the same breath call coalitions “Messy. Unstable. Unfair” and at the same time demand a new coalition government. You can’t say that your prospective coalition partners are incapable of governing and at the same time say that you want to be in government with them. You can’t be both for and against the same thing — unless you’re Nick Clegg, in which case it’s easy.

Left my bon mots there as well.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 8:22 pm

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:So, fess up AAW, was it you who called Norman Smith a pillock?

Hand on heart, I did not hear the pillock shout, but then, we were down near the front where the laughter was so loud it drowned everything else out, somewhat

plus Ed was shushing us and telling us off, saying everyone must be heard pmsl

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 8:26 pm

Chris Williamson ‏@ChriswMP 3m3 minutes ago Derby, England
Disappointing to listen to @mattfrei on @Channel4News encouraging cynism & undermining democracy. People are entitled to better Matt

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 8:55 pm

That Clegg spiel is one of the funniest thing's I've ever read.

It's like Terry on the Likely Lads slowly telling you all the people he doesn't like, and ends up with just himself being OK.

Just so, Clegg ends up with just his own party being OK.

Labour and Tory majorities would be a massive risk to our economy and our public services.

The Liberal Democrats will borrow less than Labour and cut less than the Conservatives. And because we are cutting less and spending less on debt interest we will be able to ensure the NHS has the full funding that it needs.

And only the Liberal Democrats can keep the government in the centre ground and stop the two old parties veering off to the extremes of left and right.

But they’re not the only risk. UKIP, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid all, in their own way, threaten our recovery. They all pedal their own brand of divisive populism based on grievance, blame and fear. They won’t act in the national interest. They all want to put their narrow claims above the needs of the country.

Just imagine a Labour minority government propped up by the SNP or a Tory minority propped up by UKIP?

Or either party constantly having to go on bended knee to a rag tag mob of nationalists, unionists, Greens and Respect MPs to beg for votes. It would be mayhem as everyone scrambles around for a bargain like the first day of the January sales.

Messy. Unstable. Unfair.

I'm surprised he stopped there. His internal party critics surely threaten the recovery as well.

For a man who needs to be able to form Coalitions, it's lunatic stuff.

When you see this bozo in action, you can almost understand the logic of Labour people who think they can win only by squeezing Clegg. Almost.

Surprised he didn't throw in Dr Richard Taylor, Martin Bell and the SWP just to be on the safe side. I mean, Respect or Green MPs existing in the plural is unlikely enough, let alone holding the government to ransom.

And even if I don't like Plaid or the SNP, the idea they'd think causing economic mayhem was a good tactic is very far fetched.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:10 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Back from seeing Ed - what a great speaker! Photo's are rubbish though
News says 250 there, room takes 250 siting but with all those standing at the back it seemed like many more than 250!
Four people told "their" account of life, student coming out of uni with 40k debt and no job, young business man telling how difficult it was to get banks to lead to start ups outside of London, a Doctor wanting to save NHS, a mother worried about her children's future.
Then Ed spoke about hope and optimism how things CAN be done different.
Then Q&A's - and yes we did laugh at Norman Smith but only when he said there was no crisis in NHS, blatantly ignoring A&E and ambulance's and cancelled ops!
Off for some food
One thing forgot - when asked about student loans Ed was evasive (in a smiley way) saying that they do want to do something on SL and to expect more about that in coming weeks.....

No one any thoughts on this ?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:14 pm

The Lib Dems like to tell us that they're only 1/6 of the Coalition, so we can't do that much, blah, blah.

They'll be lucky to be a tenth of a coalition in the future.

I don't expect much.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:19 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Back from seeing Ed - what a great speaker! Photo's are rubbish though
News says 250 there, room takes 250 siting but with all those standing at the back it seemed like many more than 250!
Four people told "their" account of life, student coming out of uni with 40k debt and no job, young business man telling how difficult it was to get banks to lead to start ups outside of London, a Doctor wanting to save NHS, a mother worried about her children's future.
Then Ed spoke about hope and optimism how things CAN be done different.
Then Q&A's - and yes we did laugh at Norman Smith but only when he said there was no crisis in NHS, blatantly ignoring A&E and ambulance's and cancelled ops!
Off for some food
One thing forgot - when asked about student loans Ed was evasive (in a smiley way) saying that they do want to do something on SL and to expect more about that in coming weeks.....

No one any thoughts on this ?

What's he thinking of then? I want to know your thoughts.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:19 pm

Gay UKIP MEP: Lib Dems and Labour want to make sex illegal

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/01/05/ga ... x-illegal/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

:lol!:

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:20 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Back from seeing Ed - what a great speaker! Photo's are rubbish though
News says 250 there, room takes 250 siting but with all those standing at the back it seemed like many more than 250!
Four people told "their" account of life, student coming out of uni with 40k debt and no job, young business man telling how difficult it was to get banks to lead to start ups outside of London, a Doctor wanting to save NHS, a mother worried about her children's future.
Then Ed spoke about hope and optimism how things CAN be done different.
Then Q&A's - and yes we did laugh at Norman Smith but only when he said there was no crisis in NHS, blatantly ignoring A&E and ambulance's and cancelled ops!
Off for some food
One thing forgot - when asked about student loans Ed was evasive (in a smiley way) saying that they do want to do something on SL and to expect more about that in coming weeks.....

No one any thoughts on this ?

They have made noises about this before, certainly weren't talking about scrapping them altogether, but halving them was mooted & cutting them to 6 grand. Let us wait & see, whatever they do (unless they do nothing, which is unlikely) is going to give them an edge over the Lib Dems.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:22 pm

Student loan debt forgiveness under what kind of conditions are beneficial for everyone but financial instrument wielders?

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:28 pm

citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote: One thing forgot - when asked about student loans Ed was evasive (in a smiley way) saying that they do want to do something on SL and to expect more about that in coming weeks.....

No one any thoughts on this ?
What's he thinking of then? I want to know your thoughts.

I "think" Tristram (sp?) Hunt is doing a speech next week on Education, maybe something will be announced then?
For my mind I'd be very surprised if they scrapped them (Ed today - "I'm not going to do a Nick Clegg [on tuition Fees] but yes, its something we are looking at) but they may possibly change the loan arrangements, or at least reduce fees a bit.
I was more wondering about what our education correspondents (giggle) think.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:28 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:Gay UKIP MEP: Lib Dems and Labour want to make sex illegal
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/01/05/ga ... x-illegal/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That's the likeable chap who lied about where he lived for the Euro elections.

https://edinburgheye.wordpress.com/2014 ... burn-live/

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:32 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
No one any thoughts on this ?
What's he thinking of then? I want to know your thoughts.
I "think" Tristram (sp?) Hunt is doing a speech next week on Education, maybe something will be announced then?
For my mind I'd be very surprised if they scrapped them (Ed today - "I'm not going to do a Nick Clegg [on tuition Fees] but yes, its something we are looking at) but they may possibly change the loan arrangements, or at least reduce fees a bit.
I was more wondering about what our education correspondents (giggle) think.

Hunty, Tristram Hunt is Hunty, according to Damien McBride, who is rather fond of him, last I read a couple of months ago.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 9:46 pm

citizenJA wrote:Student loan debt forgiveness under what kind of conditions are beneficial for everyone but financial instrument wielders?

You're being far too sensible.

The write offs of the debts have to go through the books. Boo, free spending Ed Miliband!

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:14 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
No one any thoughts on this ?
What's he thinking of then? I want to know your thoughts.
I "think" Tristram (sp?) Hunt is doing a speech next week on Education, maybe something will be announced then?
For my mind I'd be very surprised if they scrapped them (Ed today - "I'm not going to do a Nick Clegg [on tuition Fees] but yes, its something we are looking at) but they may possibly change the loan arrangements, or at least reduce fees a bit.
I was more wondering about what our education correspondents (giggle) think.

The way AAW describes it I'd say it sounds like they've got an announcement planned and Miliband was being a bit evasive because he didn't want to reveal it early. Any kind of positive announcement on student loans is something they're going to want to release in a planned way.

On the 'heckling', Isobel Hardman has been a bit defensive/mock outraged that people would laugh/heckle a journalist asking a question to a political leader. It's akin to trying to silence the press or something.

But people only reacted when Norman Smith claimed as part of his question that there was no winter crisis in the NHS, which is the opposite of what many other journalists are reporting ( and flies in the face of facts considering we have NHS Trusts declaring major incidents as their services reach maximum capacity right now, ambulance response times, A&E etc) and if he hadn't tried to load his question with a false premise then he wouldn't have been heckled for it. You only have to watch the video and see Miliband's eyes widen in surprise at Norman Smith's claim to see exactly what he thought of it.

I don't mind aggressive questioning but at least try and keep it in the realms of reality.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:21 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Student loan debt forgiveness under what kind of conditions are beneficial for everyone but financial instrument wielders?
You're being far too sensible.

The write offs of the debts have to go through the books. Boo, free spending Ed Miliband!

Somewhere in CCHQ a SpAd is jotting down your idea as yet another unfunded Labour commitment, with the assumption that because Ed Miliband was mentioned that makes it an official policy.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:23 pm

Spacedone wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
citizenJA wrote:What's he thinking of then? I want to know your thoughts.
I "think" Tristram (sp?) Hunt is doing a speech next week on Education, maybe something will be announced then?
For my mind I'd be very surprised if they scrapped them (Ed today - "I'm not going to do a Nick Clegg [on tuition Fees] but yes, its something we are looking at) but they may possibly change the loan arrangements, or at least reduce fees a bit.
I was more wondering about what our education correspondents (giggle) think.
The way AAW describes it I'd say it sounds like they've got an announcement planned and Miliband was being a bit evasive because he didn't want to reveal it early. Any kind of positive announcement on student loans is something they're going to want to release in a planned way.

On the 'heckling', Isobel Hardman has been a bit defensive/mock outraged that people would laugh/heckle a journalist asking a question to a political leader. It's akin to trying to silence the press or something.

But people only reacted when Norman Smith claimed as part of his question that there was no winter crisis in the NHS, which is the opposite of what many other journalists are reporting ( and flies in the face of facts considering we have NHS Trusts declaring major incidents as their services reach maximum capacity right now, ambulance response times, A&E etc) and if he hadn't tried to load his question with a false premise then he wouldn't have been heckled for it. You only have to watch the video and see Miliband's eyes widen in surprise at Norman Smith's claim to see exactly what he thought of it.

I don't mind aggressive questioning but at least try and keep it in the realms of reality.

As you said upthread, this is the man who couldn't see 50000 people marching past him at the Tory Conference in Manchester; he got utterly pwned on Twitter that day (even I made him look daft) and has had zero credibility in Labour circles from that day onwards. To be honest I think he got off lightly this morning, all things considered.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:35 pm

Spacedone wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
citizenJA wrote:What's he thinking of then? I want to know your thoughts.
I "think" Tristram (sp?) Hunt is doing a speech next week on Education, maybe something will be announced then?
For my mind I'd be very surprised if they scrapped them (Ed today - "I'm not going to do a Nick Clegg [on tuition Fees] but yes, its something we are looking at) but they may possibly change the loan arrangements, or at least reduce fees a bit.
I was more wondering about what our education correspondents (giggle) think.
The way AAW describes it I'd say it sounds like they've got an announcement planned and Miliband was being a bit evasive because he didn't want to reveal it early. Any kind of positive announcement on student loans is something they're going to want to release in a planned way.

On the 'heckling', Isobel Hardman has been a bit defensive/mock outraged that people would laugh/heckle a journalist asking a question to a political leader. It's akin to trying to silence the press or something.

But people only reacted when Norman Smith claimed as part of his question that there was no winter crisis in the NHS, which is the opposite of what many other journalists are reporting ( and flies in the face of facts considering we have NHS Trusts declaring major incidents as their services reach maximum capacity right now, ambulance response times, A&E etc) and if he hadn't tried to load his question with a false premise then he wouldn't have been heckled for it. You only have to watch the video and see Miliband's eyes widen in surprise at Norman Smith's claim to see exactly what he thought of it.

I don't mind aggressive questioning but at least try and keep it in the realms of reality.

Nail on head Space

Night all

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:37 pm

Spacedone wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Student loan debt forgiveness under what kind of conditions are beneficial for everyone but financial instrument wielders?
You're being far too sensible.

The write offs of the debts have to go through the books. Boo, free spending Ed Miliband!
Somewhere in CCHQ a SpAd is jotting down your idea as yet another unfunded Labour commitment, with the assumption that because Ed Miliband was mentioned that makes it an official policy.

I'm an evil genius sometimes.

Got to be some accounting trick to get out of it somewhere though. Roger?

Tizme1 · Post by **Tizme1** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:37 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Back from seeing Ed - what a great speaker! Photo's are rubbish though
News says 250 there, room takes 250 siting but with all those standing at the back it seemed like many more than 250!
Four people told "their" account of life, student coming out of uni with 40k debt and no job, young business man telling how difficult it was to get banks to lead to start ups outside of London, a Doctor wanting to save NHS, a mother worried about her children's future.
Then Ed spoke about hope and optimism how things CAN be done different.
Then Q&A's - and yes we did laugh at Norman Smith but only when he said there was no crisis in NHS, blatantly ignoring A&E and ambulance's and cancelled ops!
Off for some food
One thing forgot - when asked about student loans Ed was evasive (in a smiley way) saying that they do want to do something on SL and to expect more about that in coming weeks.....

No one any thoughts on this ?

Actually yes I do AAW. Was just trying to catch up on all today's posts before I commented. Anyway, I'm wondering if your impression was that he/Labour have a big announcement to make on this in the near future?

Evening all btw. JA I hope you are feeling better. Eph, I'm sorry to hear about your loss. Do you sponsor anyone yourself? I ask because I think, the way you describe Sylvia sounds to me very similar to how you could be described. If at the moment you don't, maybe you could consider it in the future in honour of her memory? Apologies if you think I am out of line to suggest it. I don't mean to sound 'directive' but you have such a warmth about you, along with humour, compassion, intelligence, honesty, and guts!

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:39 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Tonight's YouGov with for the first time UKIP prompted
LAB 34%
CON 31%
UKIP 14%
GRN 8%
LD 7%

Even funnier than the Lib Dems coming 5th again, is that UKIP went down after being prompted for.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:39 pm

@Tizme1

Thank you! Feeling much better.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:46 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
I'm an evil genius sometimes.

Got to be some accounting trick to get out of it somewhere though. Roger?

As far as I know accumulated student debt gets knocked off the gross debt number to get to net debt i.e. it's treated as a debtor. When the repayment comes in it doesn't make any difference to the national debt as the student debt number gets reduced.

But...if they write some off then the national net debt increases as the debtor is no longer valid. That's the problem that is stored up for the future - if 40%+ student debt is forecast not to be repaid, eventually it'll get written off.

So if Ed is going to make an announcement that say, teachers will automatically have their student debt written off from their degree, then the national debt rises.

Does that make sense?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:46 pm

Spacedone wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Student loan debt forgiveness under what kind of conditions are beneficial for everyone but financial instrument wielders?
You're being far too sensible.

The write offs of the debts have to go through the books. Boo, free spending Ed Miliband!
Somewhere in CCHQ a SpAd is jotting down your idea as yet another unfunded Labour commitment, with the assumption that because Ed Miliband was mentioned that makes it an official policy.

The key then is to 'fund' that debt write-down through some 'virtuous' something or other. I understand I'm using sophisticated terminology & apologise if I've lost anyone.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:49 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
I'm an evil genius sometimes.

Got to be some accounting trick to get out of it somewhere though. Roger?
As far as I know accumulated student debt gets knocked off the gross debt number to get to net debt i.e. it's treated as a debtor. When the repayment comes in it doesn't make any difference to the national debt as the student debt number gets reduced.

But...if they write some off then the national net debt increases as the debtor is no longer valid. That's the problem that is stored up for the future - if 40%+ student debt is forecast not to be repaid, eventually it'll get written off.

So if Ed is going to make an announcement that say, teachers will automatically have their student debt written off from their degree, then the national debt rises.

Does that make sense?

That's what I was thinking of.

Can you do something clever to stop that happening? Student debt transferred to "Newco" who are responsible for paying it back, but never will?

They managed to count Swiss tax money that never showed up, after all.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:51 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
I'm an evil genius sometimes.

Got to be some accounting trick to get out of it somewhere though. Roger?
As far as I know accumulated student debt gets knocked off the gross debt number to get to net debt i.e. it's treated as a debtor. When the repayment comes in it doesn't make any difference to the national debt as the student debt number gets reduced.

But...if they write some off then the national net debt increases as the debtor is no longer valid. That's the problem that is stored up for the future - if 40%+ student debt is forecast not to be repaid, eventually it'll get written off.

So if Ed is going to make an announcement that say, teachers will automatically have their student debt written off from their degree, then the national debt rises.

Does that make sense?
That's what I was thinking of.

Can you do something clever to stop that happening? Student debt transferred to "Newco" who are responsible for paying it back, but never will?

They managed to count Swiss tax money that never showed up, after all.

Exactly!

Goodnight, everyone.
Love,
JA

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 10:56 pm

Interesting.

http://academiesweek.co.uk/government-p ... -policies/

The Liberal Democrats distanced themselves from the costings. A Lib Dem spokesperson described them as “private advice” produced for the Conservatives, and said they had not been signed off his party, as would generally be the case with government documents.

Quite simply they're not government documents and should be anywhere near the government website.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:06 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Interesting.

http://academiesweek.co.uk/government-p ... -policies/

The Liberal Democrats distanced themselves from the costings. A Lib Dem spokesperson described them as “private advice” produced for the Conservatives, and said they had not been signed off his party, as would generally be the case with government documents.
Quite simply they're not government documents and should be anywhere near the government website.

I've said it before, rules don't apply to this crew. Part of the ongoing politicisation of the Civil Service, something else that Labour will have to address after the Election.

Night all

Tizme1 · Post by **Tizme1** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:06 pm

citizenJA wrote:@Tizme1

Thank you! Feeling much better.

Pleased to hear it. I like reading your comments.

I initially looked in tonight to comment on today's events. As I'm a member of the Greens, I can in one sense claim to be unbiased - or equally biased against both main parties.

It would be an untrue claim though. As you all know, I have from the moment he was elected leader, had a good feeling about Ed [though not the Labour party as a whole]. Plus it has to be said, I am biased against the Tories though I do check on my bias/prejudice now and then.

Anyway, overall my feelings are that Ed and the Labour party are still doing this kind of drip, drip, feed, thing. Nothing major, but an attempt at least to gradually change perceptions. Also today, the speed of their rebuttal of the Tory 'document' was much better than has been the norm over the last few years. Or maybe, heaven forfend - the bloody media are being vaguely more proactive in questioning things? Meanwhile, I felt the Tory efforts over the last few days were appalling and have backfired.

How this will feed into the thoughts of non political wonks though I don't know. I shall have to do some of my infamous research on the subject.

I think I mentioned previously that Question Time is in Watford this week. I applied for a ticket but have heard nothing. Ditto a number of people I know. I'll be paying particular attention to the audience composition on Thursday - rest assured.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:26 pm

Tizme1 wrote:
citizenJA wrote:@Tizme1

Thank you! Feeling much better.
Pleased to hear it. I like reading your comments.

I initially looked in tonight to comment on today's events. As I'm a member of the Greens, I can in one sense claim to be unbiased - or equally biased against both main parties. It would be an untrue claim though. As you all know, I have from the moment he was elected leader, had a good feeling about Ed [though not the Labour party as a whole]. Plus it has to be said, I am biased against the Tories though I do check on my bias/prejudice now and then.

Anyway, overall my feelings are that Ed and the Labour party are still doing this kind of drip, drip, feed, thing. Nothing major, but an attempt at least to gradually change perceptions. Also today, the speed of their rebuttal of the Tory 'document' was much better than has been the norm over the last few years. Or maybe, heaven forfend - the bloody media are being vaguely more proactive in questioning things? Meanwhile, I felt the Tory efforts over the last few days were appalling and have backfired.

How this will feed into the thoughts of non political wonks though I don't know. I shall have to do some of my infamous research on the subject.

I think I mentioned previously that Question Time is in Watford this week. I applied for a ticket but have heard nothing. Ditto a number of people I know. I'll be paying particular attention to the audience composition on Thursday - rest assured.

You may well have missed it Tizme - but Emily Maitliss / Newsnight has also been in Watford this week. She was in running gear - pounding along the pavements and tow path with her whippet 'Moody' alongside as part of their election build up. She's going to run a 'marathon' across various seats - running with and talking to locals. She says the Liberal Democrats see this as their likeliest gain .... that Watford is a bell weather seat. But we didn't get any opinions from local people - maybe she forgot that bit, or they didn't say what was wanted so it got cut?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:31 pm

Chris Bryant ‏@ChrisBryantMP 34m34 minutes ago
Why is Gove smirking throughout this soft focus interview? @BBCNewsnight

Well quite. And please Evan Davis - toughen up - you're the interviewer, you're meant to ask questions and command some authority - not just wriggle around on the chair looking for an opportunity to get a word in.

They announced the 'Newsnight Index' tonight. Electoral forecasts specially done for them by East Anglia University boffs. For one night only they explained the criteria they will use to base their predictions on ... includes constituency age, past elections, etc ... and all seem to be saying the classic swingometer methodology isn't going to cut it with so many variables in play this time.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:32 pm

Maybe somebody should tweet muppet Norman Smith this story - from the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-yo ... e-30687347

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:36 pm

: Wilkommen In Thuringia.jpg (53.49 KiB) Viewed 8091 times

Mike Gapes MP retweeted
Biff Bean ‏@BiffBean 2h2 hours ago
Tory big hitters out in force today..... #shambles

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:39 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Interesting.

http://academiesweek.co.uk/government-p ... -policies/

The Liberal Democrats distanced themselves from the costings. A Lib Dem spokesperson described them as “private advice” produced for the Conservatives, and said they had not been signed off his party, as would generally be the case with government documents.
Quite simply they're not government documents and should be anywhere near the government website.

Incredible.

Evaluated up till 2026?

This is Nixonian stuff.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:41 pm

Written evidence from the DWP to the select committee inquiry into benefit sanctions which has its evidence session on Wednesday for those interested.

http://data.parliament.uk/writteneviden ... 16558.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:43 pm

This is Iain Dale's verdict on the Emily Maitliss running sketch (it can hardly be called anything else). The only good thing about it is it keeps her out of the studio and the dog is going to get a lot of runs.

Iain Dale ‏@IainDale 37m37 minutes ago
Are there no gimmicks which Newsnight won't stoop to? If I want to hear breathless people giving political insight I'll tune into West Wing

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:45 pm

Tizme1 wrote:
citizenJA wrote:@Tizme1

Thank you! Feeling much better.
Pleased to hear it. I like reading your comments.

I initially looked in tonight to comment on today's events. As I'm a member of the Greens, I can in one sense claim to be unbiased - or equally biased against both main parties. It would be an untrue claim though. As you all know, I have from the moment he was elected leader, had a good feeling about Ed [though not the Labour party as a whole]. Plus it has to be said, I am biased against the Tories though I do check on my bias/prejudice now and then.

Anyway, overall my feelings are that Ed and the Labour party are still doing this kind of drip, drip, feed, thing. Nothing major, but an attempt at least to gradually change perceptions. Also today, the speed of their rebuttal of the Tory 'document' was much better than has been the norm over the last few years. Or maybe, heaven forfend - the bloody media are being vaguely more proactive in questioning things? Meanwhile, I felt the Tory efforts over the last few days were appalling and have backfired.

How this will feed into the thoughts of non political wonks though I don't know. I shall have to do some of my infamous research on the subject.

I think I mentioned previously that Question Time is in Watford this week. I applied for a ticket but have heard nothing. Ditto a number of people I know. I'll be paying particular attention to the audience composition on Thursday - rest assured.

Hi Tizzers, very perceptive post, I think.

Either the wheels are coming off the CCHQ meeja manipulation machine or else the meeja's finally woken up to what 30's levels spending actually might be. Either way, I, like you, have noticed a reluctance (outside the BBC, natch) to automatically accept the government's view - although, having said that, C4 News were outstandingly shit in their coverage this evening. The BBC, of course, are shit prety much every evening to the point where you wonder if CCHQ writes the scripts for them.

But it does seem to me that attitudes are hardening against the Tories. Will Labour benefit? Only if they're honest and don't fall back ino the New Labour wonkery of old. Will the Greens? I can't say, but you can't really go wrong campaigning to the left of Labour (as it currently is) - after all, your immediate opponents are TUSC. Preach ethical socialism and you'll probably do OK, but I'd advise that you work it on a local level. Remember, the FibDems built up their vote that way.

I probably shouldn't have said all that (which you already know) given that I'm a Labour councillor, but san fairy ann, as they say up here.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 05 Jan, 2015 11:47 pm

HindleA wrote:Written evidence from the DWP to the select committee inquiry into benefit sanctions which has its evidence session on Wednesday for those interested.

http://data.parliament.uk/writteneviden ... 16558.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's exactly what I would expect of them.