Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

[ephemerid]

For the avoidance of doubt, I agree entirely with ephie's judgement on the WCA.

For the avoidance of doubt, so do I. In fact I'd be astonished if anybody here didn't.

That's nice.

Of course, before you get your actual WCA, you have to complete a Limited Capability For Work Questionnaire, the dreaded ESA50.

For those of you who have not seen this marvel, you will find it by Googling its name. Whatever you write on this form, you will have to decide if your problems are predominantly physical or mental.
You will be assessed in only one category - so you cannot be a schizophrenic and a paraplegic at the same time and be assessed for both.

What used to be pages and pages of questions has now been reduced to just 18 questions in total. Most of them are completely idiotic, and in no way reflect how an ill person feels or what they can do.

But that's fine - because the object of the ESA50 is for the claimant to make a set of assertions which the WCA is designed to disprove.

The ESA50 asks if you upset people. It does not have category for depression, self-harm, paranoia, or psychosis.
The ESA50 asks if you can pick up a pound coin. If you can, you have manual dexterity.

I think it should be made compulsory for anyone who thinks ill people are being treated fairly to complete one of these things.
Then they must be made to sit in front of a person tapping at the keys of their computer while they ask exactly the same questions.
They cannot ask a question themselves, nor can they say anything other than what they are asked.
When the Maximus drone-thing tells them to touch their toes even though they have said they can't, their record will be recorded as "customer declined" if they re-iterate that they can't, with no notes explaining that they are incapable.

The whole thing MUST be scrapped. It is Unum-inspired illness and disability denial.
It is wantonly cruel and aimed at refusal of social security.

I challenge you lovely people to look it up and attempt to complete it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I wouldn't be shocked by how much tax would be raised if action was taken against personal service limited companies. I was shocked when I discovered recently that a close friend was using this very scheme.

There's nothing to be ashamed about with them.

IIRC, they were all but promoted as the future, being very common in IT.

Paying your husband dividends from your company to avoid higher rate tax is, imo, unbecoming to a couple who met at the local Labour party office, as activists.

Not really, that's something out of the Sunday papers or a personal finance book. Not Cayman Islands PWC, is it?

[TechnicalEphemera]

I knew the 92 election was lost by John Smiths budget when I was canvassing relatively poor people objecting to tax rises (they never had any chance of being hit, but aspiration is a tricky thing

I wouldn't make too much of that point- Labour probably won enough of those votes, and there are always working class Conservatives.

Alwyn Turner made the point that where Labour did very badly, the South and South East, the figure where tax rises kicked in wasn't all that much above what lots of swing voters were earning already. So it wasn't "aspiration" in terms of "one day I'll make it", it was a promotion at work away, much closer to home.

Put the figure up a bit, and it might have swung a few seats. But I agree with the general point- income tax rises that don't start very high up are electorally difficult.

You make an excellent argument for making a lot of it. My father said at the time the tax hit made him blink, and he fucking hates Tories.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Lincolnshire isn't a wealthy county, but incredibly Tory.

Wonder if a few seats could see UKIP very high? I'd be worried if I was the Tories.

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Thanks for that link giselle97. Nice to see I don't always talk garbage.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I knew the 92 election was lost by John Smiths budget when I was canvassing relatively poor people objecting to tax rises (they never had any chance of being hit, but aspiration is a tricky thing

I wouldn't make too much of that point- Labour probably won enough of those votes, and there are always working class Conservatives.

Alwyn Turner made the point that where Labour did very badly, the South and South East, the figure where tax rises kicked in wasn't all that much above what lots of swing voters were earning already. So it wasn't "aspiration" in terms of "one day I'll make it", it was a promotion at work away, much closer to home.

Put the figure up a bit, and it might have swung a few seats. But I agree with the general point- income tax rises that don't start very high up are electorally difficult.

You make an excellent argument for making a lot of it. My father said at the time the tax hit made him blink, and he fucking hates Tories.

It did seem to be OK outside the South, so I'm guessing a couple of thousand further up with the rises, and it would have been OK.

Of course, the really galling thing is that the Tories must have known they'd be bringing in tax rises the following year anyway.

[TechnicalEphemera]

There's nothing to be ashamed about with them.

IIRC, they were all but promoted as the future, being very common in IT.

Paying your husband dividends from your company to avoid higher rate tax is, imo, unbecoming to a couple who met at the local Labour party office, as activists.

Not really, that's something out of the Sunday papers or a personal finance book. Not Cayman Islands PWC, is it?

It happens a lot, my brother was ripping off the system, I could reduce my tax bill by 10-15K if I went down the same route.

One good thing is that after 2 years you have to do something else (I.e work for another company) or the tax office hammers you.

My best ever consultant left for 6 months after 2 years, he used to like me because I let him work for another company 1 day a week. He came back for another 9 months, I paid him a shed load of cash and he was worth ten times that. His work came with a life time guarantee, he supports it for free and he taught us stuff we didn't know that we didn't know.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Lincolnshire isn't a wealthy county, but incredibly Tory.

Wonder if a few seats could see UKIP very high? I'd be worried if I was the Tories.

My bolt hole, buy land, keep horses live on the wife's income and the occasional consulting gig.

Fuck all there though.

And yes it is UKIP land.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Lib Dems out in force yesterday!

http://www.libdemvoice.org/tweets-from- ... 44152.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[frightful_oik]

Funny how Labour are so strong in Nottinghamshire. Bassetlaw is a large constituency, and Sherwood quite large.

Are the Labour voters all in the towns, or are there some lefty countryfolk out there. I only thought you got those in County Durham in England. And Stroud, obviously.

Mining villages in a nutshell. Bit like Bolsover.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Lincolnshire isn't a wealthy county, but incredibly Tory.

Wonder if a few seats could see UKIP very high? I'd be worried if I was the Tories.

My bolt hole, buy land, keep horses live on the wife's income and the occasional consulting gig.

Fuck all there though.

And yes it is UKIP land.

Like your implied link between boredom and UKIP there. Probably quite a lot in that.

Always worth looking at the FT tax and benefit cuts map too.

http://ig.ft.com/austerity-map/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Particularly big hit for East Lindsey there.

Surprisingly few UKIPpers on the council (2), but looks like no elections held since 2011.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Funny how Labour are so strong in Nottinghamshire. Bassetlaw is a large constituency, and Sherwood quite large.

Are the Labour voters all in the towns, or are there some lefty countryfolk out there. I only thought you got those in County Durham in England. And Stroud, obviously.

Mining villages in a nutshell. Bit like Bolsover.

Ah cheers.

Have they not done well since the mines closed? It does vary (in England anyway). Amber Valley, I think, has done reasonably well.

[HindleA]

Deleted -waffle

[Tubby Isaacs]

More free school tomfoolery. Gove's been learning lessons though- this one isn't in a marginal seat (Sunderland).

https://www.localschoolsnetwork.org.uk/ ... -finances/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Turns out that a private school that used to teach creationism as science might not be such a coup for the state sector after all.

EFA find it can't manage money properly, and is actually getting worse at it.

£38k spent paying off earlier debts, in an area where (I'd guess) there's no big problem with school places.

The North East seems to cop it from creationists who want to run schools. It's Reg Vardy's stomping ground.

[frightful_oik]

Funny how Labour are so strong in Nottinghamshire. Bassetlaw is a large constituency, and Sherwood quite large.

Are the Labour voters all in the towns, or are there some lefty countryfolk out there. I only thought you got those in County Durham in England. And Stroud, obviously.

Mining villages in a nutshell. Bit like Bolsover.

Ah cheers.

Have they not done well since the mines closed? It does vary (in England anyway). Amber Valley, I think, has done reasonably well.

The Notts mines kept going longer than most others but I think Shirebrook was the last pit to close. Amber valley was never a mining community. Some pretty well to do types live there too. Nice countryside! Duffield very posh, Belper and Alfreton not posh. Labour gain barring a disaster. Current MP is Candy Crush fan Nigel Mills.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Been going through Dales's predicts, here at the moment are the scores on the doors. Losses, continue with the rest, now.

Kingswood, Skidmore.
Bedford, Fuller.
Cambridge, Huppert.
Amber Valley, Mills.
Erewash, Lee.
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Colville.
Brighton Kempton, Kirby.
Brighton, Pavilion Lucas.
Hastings, Rudd.
Hove, Weatherley.
Harlow, Halfon.
Gloucester, Graham.
Stroud, Carmichael.
Stevenage, McPartland.
Watford, Harrington.
Loughborough, Morgan.
Lincoln, McCartney.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wahey, Gloucestershire, with 3 non-Tories! I'm even being positive about the Lib Dems in Cheltenham because the Tory is ex-Hammersmith and Fulham.

Shame they aren't results. I reckon Graham will hang on in Gloucester though.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

I'd like Paul to give us his opinion of Colne Valley.

Sure he will oblige..

Colne Valley will depend on precisely how badly the Lib Dems do.

The sitting Tory MP Jason McCartney has worked pretty hard and is likely to retain his Tory supporters. Last time he got about 20,500, the Libs got about 16,500 and Labour 15,500.

Look at poor Jason's predicament

If the Tory and Labour voters from 2010 did exactly the same (quite likely) it would only take 1 in 3 Lib Dems to switch to Labour to unseat him. Of course this is ignoring UKIP.

So, me and Electoral Calculus have Colne Valley as a Lab Gain

[TechnicalEphemera]

Wahey, Gloucestershire, with 3 non-Tories! I'm even being positive about the Lib Dems in Cheltenham because the Tory is ex-Hammersmith and Fulham.

Shame they aren't results. I reckon Graham will hang on in Gloucester though.

I expect the massive investment in the Stasi to corrupt Gloucester and Cheltenham. Basically they have imported a bunch of right wing secret policemen(women).

[Tubby Isaacs]

Mining villages in a nutshell. Bit like Bolsover.

Ah cheers.

Have they not done well since the mines closed? It does vary (in England anyway). Amber Valley, I think, has done reasonably well.

The Notts mines kept going longer than most others but I think Shirebrook was the last pit to close. Amber valley was never a mining community. Some pretty well to do types live there too. Nice countryside! Duffield very posh, Belper and Alfreton not posh. Labour gain barring a disaster. Current MP is Candy Crush fan Nigel Mills.

Very good friend of mine lives in Belper. There were mines in the constituency, weren't there? Maybe Leicestershire has better examples though?

My friend wanted to vote against Labour in 2005 because of Iraq. The other possibilities were Con, LD, UKIP, BNP and Veritas.

He voted Labour.

[letsskiptotheleft]

To continue:

Loughborough, Morgan.
Lincoln, McCartney.
Enfield North, de Bois.
Brent Central, Teather.
Harrow East, Blackman.
Hendon, Offord.
Hornsey & Wood Green, Featherstone.
Brentford, MacLoed.
Ealing Central & Acton, Bray.
Norwich North, Smith.
Norwich South,Wright.
Northampton North, Ellis.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wahey, Gloucestershire, with 3 non-Tories! I'm even being positive about the Lib Dems in Cheltenham because the Tory is ex-Hammersmith and Fulham.

Shame they aren't results. I reckon Graham will hang on in Gloucester though.

I expect the massive investment in the Stasi to corrupt Gloucester and Cheltenham. Basically they have imported a bunch of right wing secret policemen(women).

They could be masquerading as Lib Dems in Hester's Way (Cheltenham). How it doesn't elect Labour councillors, I never know.

[frightful_oik]

Ah cheers.

Have they not done well since the mines closed? It does vary (in England anyway). Amber Valley, I think, has done reasonably well.

The Notts mines kept going longer than most others but I think Shirebrook was the last pit to close. Amber valley was never a mining community. Some pretty well to do types live there too. Nice countryside! Duffield very posh, Belper and Alfreton not posh. Labour gain barring a disaster. Current MP is Candy Crush fan Nigel Mills.

Very good friend of mine lives in Belper. There were mines in the constituency, weren't there? Maybe Leicestershire has better examples though?

My friend wanted to vote against Labour in 2005 because of Iraq. The other possibilities were Con, LD, UKIP, BNP and Veritas.

He voted Labour.

Belper used to be a separate constituency so the boundaries have altered a lot. The coalfield runs down the Derbyshire/Notts border to the east of Belper. There was lead mining in Crich until relatively recently. I think there were some pits near Alfreton. Somercotes or Riddings perhaps.

[ohsocynical]

I'd like Paul to give us his opinion of Colne Valley.

Sure he will oblige..

Colne Valley will depend on precisely how badly the Lib Dems do.

The sitting Tory MP Jason McCartney has worked pretty hard and is likely to retain his Tory supporters. Last time he got about 20,500, the Libs got about 16,500 and Labour 15,500.

Look at poor Jason's predicament

If the Tory and Labour voters from 2010 did exactly the same (quite likely) it would only take 1 in 3 Lib Dems to switch to Labour to unseat him. Of course this is ignoring UKIP.

So, me and Electoral Calculus have Colne Valley as a Lab Gain

There are going to be some real edgy moments come May. Don't know whether I'll be able to stand it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

To continue:

Loughborough, Morgan.
Lincoln, McCartney.
Enfield North, de Bois.
Brent Central, Teather.
Harrow East, Blackman.
Hendon, Offord.
Hornsey & Wood Green, Featherstone.
Brentford, MacLoed.
Ealing Central & Acton, Bray.
Norwich North, Smith.
Norwich South,Wright.
Northampton North, Ellis.

Bray might get a boost from Tory policy on strikes and Labour's policy on the Mansion Tax. The other London ones should be in a lot of trouble, hopefully.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Broxtowe, Soubry.
Sherwood, Spencer.
Cannock Chase, Twat.
Ipswich, Gummer.
Waveney, Aldous.
North Warwickshire, Byles.
Nuneaton, Jones.
Bradford East, Ward.
Dewsbury, Reevell.
Keighley, Hopkins.
Pudsey, Andrew.
South Swindon, Buckland.
Cardiff Central, Willot.
Cardiff North, Evans.

He has Lib Dems seats going to the Tories at a margin of around 4/1, he does appear cautious and you get the feeling out of the south east his knowledge is more shaky, I can't believe the likes of Bebb for instance will be safe..

[Tubby Isaacs]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01 ... 37254.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

David Davies uses Charlie Hebdo to call for end of Human Rights Act.

[Tubby Isaacs]

No "twat" for Hopkins, Lets Skip?

Or indeed a few others. When you look at some of them, it's amazing Brian Coleman never got a seat.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Funny how Labour are so strong in Nottinghamshire. Bassetlaw is a large constituency, and Sherwood quite large.

Are the Labour voters all in the towns, or are there some lefty countryfolk out there. I only thought you got those in County Durham in England. And Stroud, obviously.

Ex-mining communities in both, though that is the sort of area that is being strongly targeted by UKIP.

Mann gets a lot of stick on here and elsewhere, but his populist outlook probably isn't a bad fit for his seat tbh.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Entertaining bitchy read here, does seem Labour have upped their game in Scotland.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/euan-mccol ... -1-3657477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[rebeccariots2]

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 7h 7 hours ago
Interesting: BBC Guidelines clear, they could empty chair Cameron or any leader in a TV debate (ht @steve_hewlett); http://www.bbc.co.uk/editorialguideline ... take-part/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

[Tubby Isaacs]

Funny how Labour are so strong in Nottinghamshire. Bassetlaw is a large constituency, and Sherwood quite large.

Are the Labour voters all in the towns, or are there some lefty countryfolk out there. I only thought you got those in County Durham in England. And Stroud, obviously.

Ex-mining communities in both, though that is the sort of area that is being strongly targeted by UKIP.

Mann gets a lot of stick on here and elsewhere, but his populist outlook probably isn't a bad fit for his seat tbh.

Does Thatcher worship go down well in ex-mining constituencies? I would have thought so.

UKIP got no seats at all in Nottinghamshire in the 2013 county council elections. Lincolnshire looks a much better fit for them.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Wahey, Gloucestershire, with 3 non-Tories! I'm even being positive about the Lib Dems in Cheltenham because the Tory is ex-Hammersmith and Fulham.

Shame they aren't results. I reckon Graham will hang on in Gloucester though.

I expect the massive investment in the Stasi to corrupt Gloucester and Cheltenham. Basically they have imported a bunch of right wing secret policemen(women).

They could be masquerading as Lib Dems in Hester's Way (Cheltenham). How it doesn't elect Labour councillors, I never know.

It used to back in the days Labour had a decent council presence in the 1970s IIRC - I think their last redoubt (until a decade ago) was in the Pittville area.

Gloucester has also seen long term Labour underperformance at local level (save for the 1990s glory days) Some seriously grotty areas elect Tories regularly

[ohsocynical]

Entertaining bitchy read here, does seem Labour have upped their game in Scotland.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/euan-mccol ... -1-3657477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good article.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Amazing knowledge, Anatoly! Hardly anyone knows that Cheltenham isn't universally posh. For a town of its size, it has 3 very big poor areas

I would guess that the Pittville bits must have included the others- St Paul's or Whaddon.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Entertaining bitchy read here, does seem Labour have upped their game in Scotland.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/euan-mccol ... -1-3657477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good article.

The third paragraph from the end is quite pertinent, and needs shouting out at every opportunity.

[Spacedone]

Entertaining bitchy read here, does seem Labour have upped their game in Scotland.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/euan-mccol ... -1-3657477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Scotsman came out in favour of No so let's not get ahead of ourselves but reading that perhaps a bit of the (oily) shine coming off the SNP now their former demagogue leader is out of the picture?

[ohsocynical]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_out_th ... ing_system" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I idly looked up Ian Mikado who was my MP in Reading immediately after the war...Found some interesting snippets about him including a method of getting the vote out that was devised by him and Reading Labour party. It's still called the Reading System.
Weird because I sat outside the polling station doing that very thing last year and didn't have a clue that in my youth I'd witnessed something so lasting.

[diGriz]

Sorry if posted but this had a few moments that made me smile.


Could Nick Clegg lose his Sheffield seat in May general election?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Sara jane trebar ‏@SaveFarmTerrace 1h1 hour ago
@WatfordCouncil and @MayorDorothy confirm 3rd submission to take our allotments, regardless of cost to tax payers!

Have we had any updates from Tizme?

[PaulfromYorkshire]

[TechnicalEphemera]

Above, doesn't Dave look fat.

[ohsocynical]

https://twitter.com/MrMirth/status/5543 ... 12/photo/1

Whhoooo. Talk about insulting. Dave has pissed an awful lot of people off...We really need him and his crew out of politics.

[ohsocynical]

Snap. Forgot to refresh the page before I posted....

[Tubby Isaacs]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_out_th ... ing_system

I idly looked up Ian Mikado who was my MP in Reading immediately after the war...Found some interesting snippets about him including a method of getting the vote out that was devised by him and Reading Labour party. It's still called the Reading System.
Weird because I sat outside the polling station doing that very thing last year and didn't have a clue that in my youth I'd witnessed something so lasting.

He was an MP later in Tower Hamlets, the other one being Peter Shore. Quite an able pair!

[rebeccariots2]

Sara jane trebar ‏@SaveFarmTerrace 1h1 hour ago
@WatfordCouncil and @MayorDorothy confirm 3rd submission to take our allotments, regardless of cost to tax payers!

Have we had any updates from Tizme?

She said they'd be back on the grab again. She was right. Hasn't taken them long. The allotment campaigners have to keep going, and fighting, exhausting though it is. This is what happened to us with the Welsh badger cull ... we got there in the end.

[ohsocynical]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_out_th ... ing_system

I idly looked up Ian Mikado who was my MP in Reading immediately after the war...Found some interesting snippets about him including a method of getting the vote out that was devised by him and Reading Labour party. It's still called the Reading System.
Weird because I sat outside the polling station doing that very thing last year and didn't have a clue that in my youth I'd witnessed something so lasting.

He was an MP later in Tower Hamlets, the other one being Peter Shore. Quite an able pair!

Labour had the wards so well organised. The polling station was in the school opposite our house, so there was a lot of hustle and bustle. My friend was talking about it the other week. They used to use her mum's front room to check who'd voted or not. The neighbourhoods few car owners were roped in after work to transport the housebound. One lady used to make tea all day long.
And there were lots of fundraising events right through the year. I recall going with my friend and her mum to a whist drive in a room over the local pub.
And of course we had soap box visits by the politicians running up to an election. I remember them setting up under the gas lamp by the grocers shop and the heckling the Tories used to get. Good times!

[rebeccariots2]

East Ayrshire Labour Group Budget Proposals.jpg (55.6 KiB) Viewed 9887 times

Be nice to have a bit more context for this.

[Toby Latimer]

I don't know what happened to bring this about from a fine pair of disability campaigners.

ScreenShot00015.jpg (142.92 KiB) Viewed 9887 times

[rebeccariots2]

I don't know what happened to bring this about from a fine pair of disability campaigners.

ScreenShot00015.jpg

Hmmm. Doesn't look good. I'm presuming they - the campaigners - don't know why they've been blocked?